A heterogeneous multi-criteria multi-expert decision-support system for scoring combinations of flood mitigation and recovery options

In this study, we developed an innovative operational decision-support system (DSS) based on flood data and mitigation or recovery options, that can be used by both naïve and expert users to score portfolios of flood mitigation or recovery measures. The DSS combines exposure (i.e., economic, social, or environmental values at risk) and resilience (i.e., protection of the main equilibrium functions of human and physical systems). Experts from different fields define indices and functions, stakeholders express their attitudes towards risk, relative weights, and risk perceptions, and both groups use a shared learning process for risk assessment. The DSS algorithms include the "technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution" (TOPSIS) and the "basic linguistic term set" (BLTS) methods for heterogeneous multi-criteria multi-expert decision-making. Decisions are illustrated using fixed or bounded values of flood depth, duration, and frequency, with plausible parameter values, for a case study of Cesenatico. The best mitigation option was construction of sand dunes and development of evacuation plans, which achieved 32% of the potential net benefit. The best recovery option was construction of sand dunes and development of evacuation plans and insurance schemes, which achieved 42% of the potential net benefit. Mitigation options outperformed recovery options whenever the relative importance of exposure with respect to resilience was greater than 95%. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the best mitigation option was most robust with respect to flood duration and depth; the best recovery option was most robust with respect to the relative weights attached to economic, social, and environmental factors. Both options were similarly robust with respect to interdependencies between the options

Lexicographic Preferences in Discrete Choice Experiments: Consequences on Individual-Specific Willingness to Pay Estimates

In discrete choice experiments respondents are generally assumed to consider all of the attributes across each of the alternatives, and to choose their most preferred. However, results in this paper indicate that many respondents employ simplified lexicographic decision-making rules, whereby they have a ranking of the attributes, but their choice of an alternative is based solely on the level of their most important attribute(s). Not accounting for these simple decision-making heuristics introduces systemic errors and leads to biased point estimates, as they are a violation of the continuity axiom and a departure from the use of compensatory decision-making. In this paper the implications of lexicographic preferences are examined. In particular, using a mixed logit specification this paper investigates the sensitivity of individual-specific willingness to pay (WTP) estimates conditional on whether lexicographic decision-making rules are accounted for in the modelling of discrete choice responses. Empirical results are obtained from a discrete choice experiment that was carried out to address the value of a number of rural landscape attributes in Ireland.Continuity axiom, Discrete Choice Experiments, Lexicographic Preferences, Mixed Logit, Individual-Specific Willingness to Pay

Costs of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions: A Case Study of India’s Power Generation Sector

If India were to participate in any international effort towards mitigating CO2 emissions, the power sector which is one of the largest emitters of CO2 in the country would be required to play a major role. In this context the study estimates the marginal abatement costs, which correspond to the costs incurred by the power plants to reduce one unit of CO2 from the current level. The study uses an output distance function approach and its duality with the revenue function to derive these costs for a sample of thermal plants in India. Two sets of exercises have been undertaken. The average shadow prices of CO2 for the sample of thermal plants for the period 1991-92 to 1999-2000 was estimated to be respectively Rs.3380.59 and Rs.2401.99 per ton for the two models. These shadow prices can be used for designing environmental policies and market-based instruments for controlling pollution in the power sector in India.Marginal Abatement Costs, Distance Function, CO2 Emissions, Shadow Prices, Power Generation Sector

How well does Learning-by-doing Explain Cost Reductions in a Carbon-free Energy Technology?

The incorporation of experience curves has enhanced the treatment of technological change in models used to evaluate the cost of climate and energy policies. However, the set of activities that experience curves are assumed to capture is much broader than the set that can be characterized by learning-by-doing, the primary connection between experience curves and economic theory. How accurately do experience curves describe observed technological change? This study examines the case of photovoltaics (PV), a potentially important climate stabilization technology with robust technology dynamics. Empirical data are assembled to populate a simple engineering-based model identifying the most important factors affecting the cost of PV over the past three decades. The results indicate that learning from experience only weakly explains change in the most important cost-reducing factors— plant size, module efficiency, and the cost of silicon. They point to other explanatory variables to include in future models. Future work might also evaluate the potential for efficiency gains from policies that rely less on ‘riding down the learning curve’ and more on creating incentives for firms to make investments in the types of cost-reducing activities quantified in this study.Learning-by-doing, Experience Curves, Learning Curves, Climate Policy

Isiklike sotsiaalsete võrgustike ja ruumilise mobiilsuse seosed mobiiltelefonide andmetel

Väitekirja elektrooniline versioon ei sisalda publikatsiooneElamine võrgustunud ühiskonnas, kus lisaks inimese liikumisele on kesksel kohal ka info- ja kommunikatsioonitehnoloogia (IKT) vahendatud suhtlus, eeldab ühiskondlike protsesside mõistmiseks üha enam võrgustike kui teooria ja meetodi kaasamist. Töö eesmärk on saada uusi teadmisi isikliku sotsiaalse võrgustiku ja ruumilise mobiilsuse seostest. Töö aluseks on kahte tüüpi mobiiltelefonide andmed: mobiilsideoperaatorite ja nutitelefoni rakenduse abil kogutud andmed. Mobiiltelefoni kasutajate kõnetoimingute metainfo (kõnetoiminguid algatanud ja vastu võtnud kasutajate anonümiseeritud koodid, kõnetoimingute teostamise aeg) ja asukohtade teave võimaldab neid kasutada inimeste võrgustike ja ruumilise mobiilsuse seoste analüüsimiseks. Doktoritöö uuringud keskenduvad seostele Eestis ja andmed on kogutud erinevatel ajavahemikel aastatel 2013–2017. Töö üldine tulemus näitab, et ruumiliselt ulatuslikumate isikliku võrgustikuga inimesed liiguvad laiaulatuslikumalt. Tüpoloogilise lähenemisega eristub võrgustike paiknemise ja ruumilise mobiilsuse alusel kolm tüüpi: ruumiliselt hajutatud võrgustikud ja suur mobiilsus; ruumiliselt hajutatud võrgustikud ja vähene mobiilsus; ning ruumiliselt kontsentreeritud võrgustikud ja vähene mobiilsus. Sellest lähtuvalt ei ole kõik hajusalt paiknevate võrgustikega inimesed väga liikuvad. Neid seoseid mõjutavad enim inimese sugu ja etnilisus, IKT kasutus, perekonnaliikmete osakaal võrgustikus, võrgustiku etnilis-keelelisus ja elukoha piirkonna rahvastikutihedus. Tulemused aitavad paremini mõtestada ühiskonna ebavõrdsusi, näiteks etnilist segregatsiooni või ligipääsetavust.We live in a networked society where, in addition to the physical mobility, communication which is mediated by information and communications technology (ICT) is also central. It increasingly requires an inclusion of networks as a theory and method to understand social processes. The aim of the thesis is to gain new depths of knowledge about relationships between an individual’s personal social network and spatial mobility. The work is based on two types of mobile phone data: collected by mobile network operators and smartphone application. Information about the call activities metainformation (anonymised codes of users who initiated and received the call activities, time of the activities) and locations of mobile phone users allows them to be used to analyse the links between personal social networks and spatial mobility. The research of the doctoral thesis focused on relationships in Estonia and covers different periods between 2013 and 2017. The general result of the thesis shows that people with spatially more extensive personal networks move around more. Through a typological approach, three types based on the spatial distribution of networks and spatial mobility are distinguished: dispersed networks and high mobility; dispersed networks and low mobility; and concentrated networks and low mobility. On this basis, not all people with spatially dispersed networks are highly mobile. The relationships were mostly explained by gender and ethnicity of an individual, use of ICT, share of family members in the networks, ethno-linguistic composition of networks, and population density of residential area. The results help to better understand inequalities in society, such as ethnic segregation or accessibility.https://www.ester.ee/record=b547548

Identifying innovation in laboratory studies of cultural evolution: rates of retention and measures of adaptation

In recent years, laboratory studies of cultural evolution have become increasingly prevalent as a means of identifying and understanding the effects of cultural transmission on the form and functionality of transmitted material. The data sets generated by these studies may provide insights into the conditions encouraging, or inhibiting, high rates of innovation, as well as the effect that this has on measures of adaptive cultural change. Here we review recent experimental studies of cultural evolution with a view to elucidating the role of innovation in generating observed trends. We first consider how tasks are presented to participants, and how the corresponding conceptualisation of task success is likely to influence the degree of intent underlying any deviations from perfect reproduction. We then consider the measures of interest used by the researchers to track the changes that occur as a result of transmission, and how these are likely to be affected by differing rates of retention. We conclude that considering studies of cultural evolution from the perspective of innovation provides valuable insights which help to clarify important differences in research designs, which have implications for the likely effects of variation in retention rates on measures of cultural adaptatio

Introduction to the second international symposium of platial information science

People ‘live’ and constitute places every day through recurrent practices and experience. Our everyday lives, however, are complex, and so are places. In contrast to abstract space, the way people experience places includes a range of aspects like physical setting, meaning, and emotional attachment. This inherent complexity requires researchers to investigate the concept of place from a variety of viewpoints. The formal representation of place – a major goal in GIScience related to place – is no exception and can only be successfully addressed if we consider geographical, psychological, anthropological, sociological, cognitive, and other perspectives. This year’s symposium brings together place-based researchers from different disciplines to discuss the current state of platial research. Therefore, this volume contains contributions from a range of fields including geography, psychology, cognitive science, linguistics, and cartography

Advancing the development and use of climate-change scenarios : A multi-scale analysis to explore socio-economic European futures

Climate change is one of the greatest challenges of our time and requires unprecedented changes to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate-change impacts. Different viewpoints and definitions are used by scientists, decision makers and stakeholders to meaning of this challenge. The complexity of this diversity is amplified by the lack of a clear goal and methodology for the exploration of alternative futures in the form of future climate-change scenarios. Such scenarios need, at the same time, to be scientifically credible (credibility) and to reflect different viewpoints (legitimacy) in order to be generalised enough while representing contextual diversity (consistency) to be relevant for decision-making (salience). This thesis develops and analyse European and Central Asian socio-economic scenarios based on the global Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) to evaluate their credibility, legitimacy, consistency and relevance, with novel analytical methodologies. State-of-the-art scenario methodologies are framed on grounds of the objectives (exploratory and normative) and their links across scales (tight and loose links) and types (qualitative and quantitative). The first methodology is based on a fuzzy-set methodology to link qualitative (narratives) and quantitative (input variables to integrated assessment modelling) scenarios by assessing the different uncertainties resulting from their inherent complexities. In the second and third methodologies, a quantitative pan-European urbanisation model, stakeholder-led narratives and a qualitative concept of archetype are used discuss both the quantitative and qualitative scalability of the scenarios in a multi-scale approach. The fourth methodology combines a capital-capacities framework to link the goal of exploratory scenarios in relation to their relevance to decision-making by assessing their potential to achieve a (normative) desirable future. Overall, results suggest that linking directly the uncertainties contributes to more transparent qualitative and quantitative conversion and therefore yield more credible scenarios. When analysed across scales, global and European scenarios are consistent with both downscaled scenarios and local stakeholder-led narratives contribute to the creation of holistic and more legitimate scenarios. However, important divergences have emerged too. For instance, the scenario with high challenges to mitigation and low challenges to adaptation (SSP5) varies hugely across the European continent. The local versions of SSP5 tend to diverge from the global archetype more than the other SSPs. This divergence reflects different worldviews that challenge state-of-the-art knowledge and can ultimately question the role of global scenarios in guiding local scenario versions with a nested approach. I recommend the role of both narratives and quantifications to be equally important in capturing different uncertainties, stakes and worldviews, as well as a reframing of SSP uncertainty space as one of challenges to societal transformation, rather than one of challenges to mitigation and adaptation.</p