Gaussian process models for SCADA data based wind turbine performance/condition monitoring

Wind energy has seen remarkable growth in the past decade, and installed wind turbine capacity is increasing significantly every year around the globe. The presence of an excellent offshore wind resource and the need to reduce carbon emissions from electricity generation are driving policy to increase offshore wind generation capacity in UK waters. Logistic and transport issues make offshore maintenance costlier than onshore and availability correspondingly lower, and as a result, there is a growing interest in wind turbine condition monitoring allowing condition based, rather than corrective or scheduled, maintenance.;Offshore wind turbine manufacturers are constantly increasing the rated size the turbines, and also their hub height in order to access higher wind speeds with lower turbulence. However, such scaling up leads to significant increments in terms of materials for both tower structure and foundations, and also costs required for transportation, installation, and maintenance. Wind turbines are costly affairs that comprise several complex systems connected altogether (e.g., hub, drive shaft, gearbox, generator, yaw system, electric drive and so on).;The unexpected failure of these components can cause significant machine unavailability and/or damage to other components. This ultimately increases the operation and maintenance (O&M) cost and subsequently cost of energy (COE). Therefore, identifying faults at an early stage before catastrophic damage occurs is the primary objective associated with wind turbine condition monitoring.;Existing wind turbine condition monitoring strategies, for example, vibration signal analysis and oil debris detection, require costly sensors. The additional costs can be significant depending upon the number of wind turbines typically deployed in offshore wind farms and also, costly expertise is generally required to interpret the results. By contrast, Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) data analysis based condition monitoring could underpin condition based maintenance with little or no additional cost to the wind farm operator.;A Gaussian process (GP) is a stochastic, nonlinear and nonparametric model whose distribution function is the joint distribution of a collection of random variables; it is widely suitable for classification and regression problems. GP is a machine learning algorithm that uses a measure of similarity between subsequent data points (via covariance functions) to fit and or estimate the future value from a training dataset. GP models have been applied to numerous multivariate and multi-task problems including spatial and spatiotemporal contexts.;Furthermore, GP models have been applied to electricity price and residential probabilistic load forecasting, solar power forecasting. However, the application of GPs to wind turbine condition monitoring has to date been limited and not much explored.;This thesis focuses on GP based wind turbine condition monitoring that utilises data from SCADA systems exclusively. The selection of the covariance function greatly influences GP model accuracy. A comparative analysis of different covariance functions for GP models is presented with an in-depth analysis of popularly used stationary covariance functions. Based on this analysis, a suitable covariance function is selected for constructing a GP model-based fault detection algorithm for wind turbine condition monitoring.;By comparing incoming operational SCADA data, effective component condition indicators can be derived where the reference model is based on SCADA data from a healthy turbine constructed and compared against incoming data from a faulty turbine. In this thesis, a GP algorithm is constructed with suitable covariance function to detect incipient turbine operational faults or failures before they result in catastrophic damage so that preventative maintenance can be scheduled in a timely manner.;In order to judge GP model effectiveness, two other methods, based on binning, have been tested and compared with the GP based algorithm. This thesis also considers a range of critical turbine parameters and their impact on the GP fault detection algorithm.;Power is well known to be influenced by air density, and this is reflected in the IEC Standard air density correction procedure. Hence, the proper selection of an air density correction approach can improve the power curve model. This thesis addresses this, explores the different types of air density correction approach, and suggests the best way to incorporate these in the GP models to improve accuracy and reduce uncertainty.;Finally, a SCADA data based fault detection algorithm is constructed to detect failures caused by the yaw misalignment. Two fault detection algorithms based on IEC binning methods (widely used within the wind industry) are developed to assess the performance of the GP based fault detection algorithm in terms of their capability to detect in advance (and by how much) signs of failure, and also their false positive rate by making use of extensive SCADA data and turbine fault and repair logs.;GP models are robust in identifying early anomalies/failures that cause the wind turbine to underperform. This early detection is helpful in preventing machines to reach the catastrophic stage and allow enough time to undertake scheduled maintenance, which ultimately reduces the O&M, cost and maximises the power performance of wind turbines. Overall, results demonstrate the effectiveness of the GP algorithm in improving the performance of wind turbines through condition monitoring.Wind energy has seen remarkable growth in the past decade, and installed wind turbine capacity is increasing significantly every year around the globe. The presence of an excellent offshore wind resource and the need to reduce carbon emissions from electricity generation are driving policy to increase offshore wind generation capacity in UK waters. Logistic and transport issues make offshore maintenance costlier than onshore and availability correspondingly lower, and as a result, there is a growing interest in wind turbine condition monitoring allowing condition based, rather than corrective or scheduled, maintenance.;Offshore wind turbine manufacturers are constantly increasing the rated size the turbines, and also their hub height in order to access higher wind speeds with lower turbulence. However, such scaling up leads to significant increments in terms of materials for both tower structure and foundations, and also costs required for transportation, installation, and maintenance. Wind turbines are costly affairs that comprise several complex systems connected altogether (e.g., hub, drive shaft, gearbox, generator, yaw system, electric drive and so on).;The unexpected failure of these components can cause significant machine unavailability and/or damage to other components. This ultimately increases the operation and maintenance (O&M) cost and subsequently cost of energy (COE). Therefore, identifying faults at an early stage before catastrophic damage occurs is the primary objective associated with wind turbine condition monitoring.;Existing wind turbine condition monitoring strategies, for example, vibration signal analysis and oil debris detection, require costly sensors. The additional costs can be significant depending upon the number of wind turbines typically deployed in offshore wind farms and also, costly expertise is generally required to interpret the results. By contrast, Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) data analysis based condition monitoring could underpin condition based maintenance with little or no additional cost to the wind farm operator.;A Gaussian process (GP) is a stochastic, nonlinear and nonparametric model whose distribution function is the joint distribution of a collection of random variables; it is widely suitable for classification and regression problems. GP is a machine learning algorithm that uses a measure of similarity between subsequent data points (via covariance functions) to fit and or estimate the future value from a training dataset. GP models have been applied to numerous multivariate and multi-task problems including spatial and spatiotemporal contexts.;Furthermore, GP models have been applied to electricity price and residential probabilistic load forecasting, solar power forecasting. However, the application of GPs to wind turbine condition monitoring has to date been limited and not much explored.;This thesis focuses on GP based wind turbine condition monitoring that utilises data from SCADA systems exclusively. The selection of the covariance function greatly influences GP model accuracy. A comparative analysis of different covariance functions for GP models is presented with an in-depth analysis of popularly used stationary covariance functions. Based on this analysis, a suitable covariance function is selected for constructing a GP model-based fault detection algorithm for wind turbine condition monitoring.;By comparing incoming operational SCADA data, effective component condition indicators can be derived where the reference model is based on SCADA data from a healthy turbine constructed and compared against incoming data from a faulty turbine. In this thesis, a GP algorithm is constructed with suitable covariance function to detect incipient turbine operational faults or failures before they result in catastrophic damage so that preventative maintenance can be scheduled in a timely manner.;In order to judge GP model effectiveness, two other methods, based on binning, have been tested and compared with the GP based algorithm. This thesis also considers a range of critical turbine parameters and their impact on the GP fault detection algorithm.;Power is well known to be influenced by air density, and this is reflected in the IEC Standard air density correction procedure. Hence, the proper selection of an air density correction approach can improve the power curve model. This thesis addresses this, explores the different types of air density correction approach, and suggests the best way to incorporate these in the GP models to improve accuracy and reduce uncertainty.;Finally, a SCADA data based fault detection algorithm is constructed to detect failures caused by the yaw misalignment. Two fault detection algorithms based on IEC binning methods (widely used within the wind industry) are developed to assess the performance of the GP based fault detection algorithm in terms of their capability to detect in advance (and by how much) signs of failure, and also their false positive rate by making use of extensive SCADA data and turbine fault and repair logs.;GP models are robust in identifying early anomalies/failures that cause the wind turbine to underperform. This early detection is helpful in preventing machines to reach the catastrophic stage and allow enough time to undertake scheduled maintenance, which ultimately reduces the O&M, cost and maximises the power performance of wind turbines. Overall, results demonstrate the effectiveness of the GP algorithm in improving the performance of wind turbines through condition monitoring

Information Theory and Its Application in Machine Condition Monitoring

Condition monitoring of machinery is one of the most important aspects of many modern industries. With the rapid advancement of science and technology, machines are becoming increasingly complex. Moreover, an exponential increase of demand is leading an increasing requirement of machine output. As a result, in most modern industries, machines have to work for 24 hours a day. All these factors are leading to the deterioration of machine health in a higher rate than before. Breakdown of the key components of a machine such as bearing, gearbox or rollers can cause a catastrophic effect both in terms of financial and human costs. In this perspective, it is important not only to detect the fault at its earliest point of inception but necessary to design the overall monitoring process, such as fault classification, fault severity assessment and remaining useful life (RUL) prediction for better planning of the maintenance schedule. Information theory is one of the pioneer contributions of modern science that has evolved into various forms and algorithms over time. Due to its ability to address the non-linearity and non-stationarity of machine health deterioration, it has become a popular choice among researchers. Information theory is an effective technique for extracting features of machines under different health conditions. In this context, this book discusses the potential applications, research results and latest developments of information theory-based condition monitoring of machineries

Deep Learning-Based Machinery Fault Diagnostics

This book offers a compilation for experts, scholars, and researchers to present the most recent advancements, from theoretical methods to the applications of sophisticated fault diagnosis techniques. The deep learning methods for analyzing and testing complex mechanical systems are of particular interest. Special attention is given to the representation and analysis of system information, operating condition monitoring, the establishment of technical standards, and scientific support of machinery fault diagnosis

Induction motors fault diagnosis using machine learning and advanced signal processing techniques

In this thesis, induction motors fault diagnosis are investigated using machine learning and advanced signal processing techniques considering two scenarios: 1) induction motors are directly connected online; and 2) induction motors are fed by variable frequency drives (VFDs). The research is based on experimental data obtained in the lab. Various single- and multi- electrical and/or mechanical faults were applied to two identical induction motors in experiments. Stator currents and vibration signals of the two motors were measured simultaneously during experiments and were used in developing the fault diagnosis method. Signal processing techniques such as Matching Pursuit (MP) and Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) are chosen for feature extraction. Classification algorithms, including decision trees, support vector machine (SVM), K-nearest neighbors (KNN), and Ensemble algorithms are used in the study to evaluate the performance and suitability of different classifiers for induction motor fault diagnosis. Novel curve or surface fitting techniques are implemented to obtain features for conditions that have not been tested in experiments. The proposed fault diagnosis method can accurately detect single- or multi- electrical and mechanical faults in induction motors either directly online or fed by VFDs. In addition to the machine learning method, a threshold method using the stator current signal processed by DWT is also proposed in the thesis

Predictive Maintenance of an External Gear Pump using Machine Learning Algorithms

The importance of Predictive Maintenance is critical for engineering industries, such as manufacturing, aerospace and energy. Unexpected failures cause unpredictable downtime, which can be disruptive and high costs due to reduced productivity. This forces industries to ensure the reliability of their equip-ment. In order to increase the reliability of equipment, maintenance actions, such as repairs, replacements, equipment updates, and corrective actions are employed. These actions affect the flexibility, quality of operation and manu-facturing time. It is therefore essential to plan maintenance before failure occurs.Traditional maintenance techniques rely on checks conducted routinely based on running hours of the machine. The drawback of this approach is that maintenance is sometimes performed before it is required. Therefore, conducting maintenance based on the actual condition of the equipment is the optimal solu-tion. This requires collecting real-time data on the condition of the equipment, using sensors (to detect events and send information to computer processor).Predictive Maintenance uses these types of techniques or analytics to inform about the current, and future state of the equipment. In the last decade, with the introduction of the Internet of Things (IoT), Machine Learning (ML), cloud computing and Big Data Analytics, manufacturing industry has moved forward towards implementing Predictive Maintenance, resulting in increased uptime and quality control, optimisation of maintenance routes, improved worker safety and greater productivity.The present thesis describes a novel computational strategy of Predictive Maintenance (fault diagnosis and fault prognosis) with ML and Deep Learning applications for an FG304 series external gear pump, also known as a domino pump. In the absence of a comprehensive set of experimental data, synthetic data generation techniques are implemented for Predictive Maintenance by perturbing the frequency content of time series generated using High-Fidelity computational techniques. In addition, various types of feature extraction methods considered to extract most discriminatory informations from the data. For fault diagnosis, three types of ML classification algorithms are employed, namely Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Naive Bayes (NB) algorithms. For prognosis, ML regression algorithms, such as MLP and SVM, are utilised. Although significant work has been reported by previous authors, it remains difficult to optimise the choice of hyper-parameters (important parameters whose value is used to control the learning process) for each specific ML algorithm. For instance, the type of SVM kernel function or the selection of the MLP activation function and the optimum number of hidden layers (and neurons).It is widely understood that the reliability of ML algorithms is strongly depen-dent upon the existence of a sufficiently large quantity of high-quality training data. In the present thesis, due to the unavailability of experimental data, a novel high-fidelity in-silico dataset is generated via a Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) model, which has been used for the training of the underlying ML metamodel. In addition, a large number of scenarios are recreated, ranging from healthy to faulty ones (e.g. clogging, radial gap variations, axial gap variations, viscosity variations, speed variations). Furthermore, the high-fidelity dataset is re-enacted by using degradation functions to predict the remaining useful life (fault prognosis) of an external gear pump.The thesis explores and compares the performance of MLP, SVM and NB algo-rithms for fault diagnosis and MLP and SVM for fault prognosis. In order to enable fast training and reliable testing of the MLP algorithm, some predefined network architectures, like 2n neurons per hidden layer, are used to speed up the identification of the precise number of neurons (shown to be useful when the sample data set is sufficiently large). Finally, a series of benchmark tests are presented, enabling to conclude that for fault diagnosis, the use of wavelet features and a MLP algorithm can provide the best accuracy, and the MLP al-gorithm provides the best prediction results for fault prognosis. In addition, benchmark examples are simulated to demonstrate the mesh convergence for the CFD model whereas, quantification analysis and noise influence on training data are performed for ML algorithms

Failure Prognosis of Wind Turbine Components

Wind energy is playing an increasingly significant role in the World\u27s energy supply mix. In North America, many utility-scale wind turbines are approaching, or are beyond the half-way point of their originally anticipated lifespan. Accurate estimation of the times to failure of major turbine components can provide wind farm owners insight into how to optimize the life and value of their farm assets. This dissertation deals with fault detection and failure prognosis of critical wind turbine sub-assemblies, including generators, blades, and bearings based on data-driven approaches. The main aim of the data-driven methods is to utilize measurement data from the system and forecast the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of faulty components accurately and efficiently. The main contributions of this dissertation are in the application of ALTA lifetime analysis to help illustrate a possible relationship between varying loads and generators reliability, a wavelet-based Probability Density Function (PDF) to effectively detecting incipient wind turbine blade failure, an adaptive Bayesian algorithm for modeling the uncertainty inherent in the bearings RUL prediction horizon, and a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) for characterizing the bearing damage progression based on varying operating states to mimic a real condition in which wind turbines operate and to recognize that the damage progression is a function of the stress applied to each component using data from historical failures across three different Canadian wind farms

Methods and Systems for Fault Diagnosis in Nuclear Power Plants

This research mainly deals with fault diagnosis in nuclear power plants (NPP), based on a framework that integrates contributions from fault scope identification, optimal sensor placement, sensor validation, equipment condition monitoring, and diagnostic reasoning based on pattern analysis. The research has a particular focus on applications where data collected from the existing SCADA (supervisory, control, and data acquisition) system is not sufficient for the fault diagnosis system. Specifically, the following methods and systems are developed. A sensor placement model is developed to guide optimal placement of sensors in NPPs. The model includes 1) a method to extract a quantitative fault-sensor incidence matrix for a system; 2) a fault diagnosability criterion based on the degree of singularities of the incidence matrix; and 3) procedures to place additional sensors to meet the diagnosability criterion. Usefulness of the proposed method is demonstrated on a nuclear power plant process control test facility (NPCTF). Experimental results show that three pairs of undiagnosable faults can be effectively distinguished with three additional sensors selected by the proposed model. A wireless sensor network (WSN) is designed and a prototype is implemented on the NPCTF. WSN is an effective tool to collect data for fault diagnosis, especially for systems where additional measurements are needed. The WSN has distributed data processing and information fusion for fault diagnosis. Experimental results on the NPCTF show that the WSN system can be used to diagnose all six fault scenarios considered for the system. A fault diagnosis method based on semi-supervised pattern classification is developed which requires significantly fewer training data than is typically required in existing fault diagnosis models. It is a promising tool for applications in NPPs, where it is usually difficult to obtain training data under fault conditions for a conventional fault diagnosis model. The proposed method has successfully diagnosed nine types of faults physically simulated on the NPCTF. For equipment condition monitoring, a modified S-transform (MST) algorithm is developed by using shaping functions, particularly sigmoid functions, to modify the window width of the existing standard S-transform. The MST can achieve superior time-frequency resolution for applications that involves non-stationary multi-modal signals, where classical methods may fail. Effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated using a vibration test system as well as applications to detect a collapsed pipe support in the NPCTF. The experimental results show that by observing changes in time-frequency characteristics of vibration signals, one can effectively detect faults occurred in components of an industrial system. To ensure that a fault diagnosis system does not suffer from erroneous data, a fault detection and isolation (FDI) method based on kernel principal component analysis (KPCA) is extended for sensor validations, where sensor faults are detected and isolated from the reconstruction errors of a KPCA model. The method is validated using measurement data from a physical NPP. The NPCTF is designed and constructed in this research for experimental validations of fault diagnosis methods and systems. Faults can be physically simulated on the NPCTF. In addition, the NPCTF is designed to support systems based on different instrumentation and control technologies such as WSN and distributed control systems. The NPCTF has been successfully utilized to validate the algorithms and WSN system developed in this research. In a real world application, it is seldom the case that one single fault diagnostic scheme can meet all the requirements of a fault diagnostic system in a nuclear power. In fact, the values and performance of the diagnosis system can potentially be enhanced if some of the methods developed in this thesis can be integrated into a suite of diagnostic tools. In such an integrated system, WSN nodes can be used to collect additional data deemed necessary by sensor placement models. These data can be integrated with those from existing SCADA systems for more comprehensive fault diagnosis. An online performance monitoring system monitors the conditions of the equipment and provides key information for the tasks of condition-based maintenance. When a fault is detected, the measured data are subsequently acquired and analyzed by pattern classification models to identify the nature of the fault. By analyzing the symptoms of the fault, root causes of the fault can eventually be identified

Condition Monitoring Methods for Large, Low-speed Bearings

In all industrial production plants, well-functioning machines and systems are required for sustained and safe operation. However, asset performance degrades over time and may lead to reduced effiency, poor product quality, secondary damage to other assets or even complete failure and unplanned downtime of critical systems. Besides the potential safety hazards from machine failure, the economic consequences are large, particularly in offshore applications where repairs are difficult. This thesis focuses on large, low-speed rolling element bearings, concretized by the main swivel bearing of an offshore drilling machine. Surveys have shown that bearing failure in drilling machines is a major cause of rig downtime. Bearings have a finite lifetime, which can be estimated using formulas supplied by the bearing manufacturer. Premature failure may still occur as a result of irregularities in operating conditions and use, lubrication, mounting, contamination, or external environmental factors. On the contrary, a bearing may also exceed the expected lifetime. Compared to smaller bearings, historical failure data from large, low-speed machinery is rare. Due to the high cost of maintenance and repairs, the preferred maintenance arrangement is often condition based. Vibration measurements with accelerometers is the most common data acquisition technique. However, vibration based condition monitoring of large, low-speed bearings is challenging, due to non-stationary operating conditions, low kinetic energy and increased distance from fault to transducer. On the sensor side, this project has also investigated the usage of acoustic emission sensors for condition monitoring purposes. Roller end damage is identified as a failure mode of interest in tapered axial bearings. Early stage abrasive wear has been observed on bearings in drilling machines. The failure mode is currently only detectable upon visual inspection and potentially through wear debris in the bearing lubricant. In this thesis, multiple machine learning algorithms are developed and applied to handle the challenges of fault detection in large, low-speed bearings with little or no historical data and unknown fault signatures. The feasibility of transfer learning is demonstrated, as an approach to speed up implementation of automated fault detection systems when historical failure data is available. Variational autoencoders are proposed as a method for unsupervised dimensionality reduction and feature extraction, being useful for obtaining a health indicator with a statistical anomaly detection threshold. Data is collected from numerous experiments throughout the project. Most notably, a test was performed on a real offshore drilling machine with roller end wear in the bearing. To replicate this failure mode and aid development of condition monitoring methods, an axial bearing test rig has been designed and built as a part of the project. An overview of all experiments, methods and results are given in the thesis, with details covered in the appended papers.publishedVersio

Machine Learning-Based Data and Model Driven Bayesian Uncertanity Quantification of Inverse Problems for Suspended Non-structural System

Inverse problems involve extracting the internal structure of a physical system from noisy measurement data. In many fields, the Bayesian inference is used to address the ill-conditioned nature of the inverse problem by incorporating prior information through an initial distribution. In the nonparametric Bayesian framework, surrogate models such as Gaussian Processes or Deep Neural Networks are used as flexible and effective probabilistic modeling tools to overcome the high-dimensional curse and reduce computational costs. In practical systems and computer models, uncertainties can be addressed through parameter calibration, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification, leading to improved reliability and robustness of decision and control strategies based on simulation or prediction results. However, in the surrogate model, preventing overfitting and incorporating reasonable prior knowledge of embedded physics and models is a challenge. Suspended Nonstructural Systems (SNS) pose a significant challenge in the inverse problem. Research on their seismic performance and mechanical models, particularly in the inverse problem and uncertainty quantification, is still lacking. To address this, the author conducts full-scale shaking table dynamic experiments and monotonic & cyclic tests, and simulations of different types of SNS to investigate mechanical behaviors. To quantify the uncertainty of the inverse problem, the author proposes a new framework that adopts machine learning-based data and model driven stochastic Gaussian process model calibration to quantify the uncertainty via a new black box variational inference that accounts for geometric complexity measure, Minimum Description length (MDL), through Bayesian inference. It is validated in the SNS and yields optimal generalizability and computational scalability