Modeling present and future freeway management strategies : variable speed limits, lane-changing and platooning of connected autonomous vehicles

Freeway traffic management is necessary to improve capacity and reduce congestion, especially in metropolitan freeways where the rush period lasts several hours per day. Traffic congestion implies delays and an increase in air pollutant emissions, both with harmful effects to society. Active management strategies imply regulating traffic demand and improving freeway capacity. While both aspects are necessary, the present thesis only addresses the supply side. Part of the research in traffic flow theory is grounded on empirical data. Today, in order to extend our knowledge on traffic dynamics, detailed and high-quality data is needed. To that end, the thesis presents a pioneering data collection campaign, which was developed in a freeway accessing Barcelona. In a Variable Speed Limits (VSL) environment, different speed limits where posted, in order to observe their real and detailed effects on traffic. All the installed surveillance instruments were set to capture data in the highest possible level of detail, including video recordings, from where to count lane-changing maneuvers. With this objective, a semi-automatic method to reliably count lane changes form video recordings was developed and is presented in the thesis. Data analysis proved that the speed limit fulfillment was only relevant in sections with enforcement devices. In these sections, it is confirmed that, the lower the speed limit, the higher the occupancy to achieve a given flow. In contrast, the usually assumed mainline metering effect of low speed limits was not relevant. This might be different in case of stretch enforcement. These findings mean that, on the one hand, VSL strategies aiming to restrict the mainline flow on a freeway by using low speed limits will need to be applied carefully, avoiding conditions as the ones presented here. On the other hand, VSL strategies trying to get the most from the increased vehicle storage capacity of freeways under low speed limits might be rather promising. Results also show that low speed limits increase the speed differences across lanes for moderate demands. This, in turn, also increases the lane changing rates. In contrast, lower speed limits widen the range of flows under uniform lane flow distributions, so that, even for moderate to low demands, the under-utilization of any lane can be avoided. Further analysis of lane-changing activity allowed unveiling that high lane-changing rates prevent achieving the highest flows. This inverse relationship is modeled in the thesis using a stochastic model based on Bayesian inference. This model could be used as a control tool, in order to determine which level of lane-changing activity can be allowed to achieve a desired capacity with some level of reliability. Previous results identify drivers' fulfillment of traffic regulations as a weak point in order to maximize the benefits of current management strategies, like VSL or lane-changing control. This is likely to change in the near future with the irruption of Autonomous Vehicles (AV) in freeways. V2X communications will allow directly actuating on individual vehicles with high accuracy. This will open the door to new management strategies based on simultaneous communication to groups of AVs and extremely short reaction times, like platooning, which stands out as a strategy with a huge potential to improve freeway traffic. Strings of AVs traveling at extremely short gaps (i.e. platoons) allow achieving higher capacities and lower energy consumption rates. In this context, the thesis presents a parsimonious macroscopic model for AVs platooning in mixed traffic (i.e. platoons of AVs travelling together with human driven vehicles). The model allows determining the average platoon length and reproducing the overall traffic dynamics leading to higher capacities. Results prove that with a 50% penetration rate of AVs in the lane, capacity could reach 3400 veh/h/lane under a cooperative platooning strategy.Per tal de millorar la capacitat i reduir la congestió a les autopistes cal gestionar el trànsit de manera activa. Les estratègies de gestió activa del trànsit són d’especial importància en autopistes metropolitanes. La congestió provoca retards i un increment del consum de combustible que va lligat a unes majors emissions de gasos contaminants, tots amb efectes perniciosos per la societat. La gestió activa del transit requereix regular la demanda i millorar la capacitat de la via. Encara que tots dos aspectes son necessaris, la present tesis només analitza la gestió de l’oferta. Part de la recerca en l’anàlisi i la teoria del trànsit es basa en dades empíriques. Per satisfer el requeriment de dades detallades i d’alta qualitat, aquesta tesis presenta una campanya pionera de recol·lecció de dades. Les dades es van recollir a l’autopista B-23 d’accés a Barcelona. Tots els instruments de mesura es van configurar per tal de registrar les dades amb el major nivell de detall possible, incloent les càmeres de videovigilància, d’on es varen extreure els comptatges de canvi de carril. Amb aquest objectiu, es va desenvolupar una metodologia semiautomàtica per comptar canvis de carril a partir de gravacions de trànsit, que es presenta en el cos de la tesi. L’anàlisi de les dades obtingudes ha demostrat que el compliment dels límits de velocitat només resulta rellevant en aquelles seccions que compten amb un radar. És en aquestes seccions on s’ha confirmat que com menor és el límit de velocitat, major es l’ocupació per a un flux donat. Per contra, la hipòtesi habitual de que uns límits de velocitat baixos produeixen una restricció del flux no es va observar de forma rellevant. Aquest comportament podria esser diferent en el cas d’implantar un radar de tram. Els resultats obtinguts també mostren com les diferències de velocitats entre carrils s’incrementen per a límits de velocitat baixos i en condicions de demanda moderada. Això, alhora, incrementa el nombre de canvis de carril. Per contra, els límits de velocitat baixos contribueixen a una distribució de flux més uniforme entre carrils, de forma que es pot evitar la infrautilització de carrils. L’anàlisi més detallat de l’activitat de canvi de carril demostra que una taxa elevada de canvis de carril impedeix assolir fluxos grans de circulació. En la tesi, aquesta relació inversa entre la taxa de canvis de carril i el flux màxim de trànsit a l’autopista s’ha modelat de forma estocàstica utilitzant un model basat en la inferència Bayesiana. Aquest model es pot utilitzar com una eina de control, per tal de determinar quina taxa de canvi de carril es pot permetre si es vol assolir una capacitat determinada amb una determinada probabilitat de compliment. En vista dels resultats previs, la falta de compliment de les normes de trànsit per part dels conductors s’identifica com un punt dèbil a l’hora de maximitzar els beneficis de les actuals estratègies de gestió del transit. Això probablement canviarà en el futur pròxim amb la irrupció dels Vehicles Autònoms (VA) a les autopistes. Els sistemes de comunicació V2X permetran actuar individualment sobre cada vehicle amb una gran precisió. Això obrirà la porta a noves estratègies de gestió, basades en la comunicació simultània entre diferents grups de VA i en temps de reacció extremadament curts, com per exemple és el “platooning”, que destaca pel seu gran potencial per millorar el trànsit en autopista. Els “platons” son cadenes de VA viatjant amb uns espaiaments extremadament curts que permeten assolir capacitats mes elevades i un menor consum energètic. En aquest context, la tesi presenta un model macroscòpic parsimoniós per a “platons” de VA en condicions de transit mixt, és a dir, compartint la infraestructura amb vehicles tradicionals. El model permet determinar la longitud mitjana del “platons” i reproduir el trànsit global dinàmiques que condueixen a majors capacitats. Els resultats demostren que amb un 50% la velocitat de penetració dels AV al carril, la capacitat podria arribar als 3.400 vehicles / h / carril sota una estratègia cooperativa de “platooning

Modeling present and future freeway management strategies : variable speed limits, lane-changing and platooning of connected autonomous vehicles

Premi Extraordinari de Doctorat, promoció 2018-2019. Àmbit d’Enginyeria Civil i AmbientalFreeway traffic management is necessary to improve capacity and reduce congestion, especially in metropolitan freeways where the rush period lasts several hours per day. Traffic congestion implies delays and an increase in air pollutant emissions, both with harmful effects to society. Active management strategies imply regulating traffic demand and improving freeway capacity. While both aspects are necessary, the present thesis only addresses the supply side. Part of the research in traffic flow theory is grounded on empirical data. Today, in order to extend our knowledge on traffic dynamics, detailed and high-quality data is needed. To that end, the thesis presents a pioneering data collection campaign, which was developed in a freeway accessing Barcelona. In a Variable Speed Limits (VSL) environment, different speed limits where posted, in order to observe their real and detailed effects on traffic. All the installed surveillance instruments were set to capture data in the highest possible level of detail, including video recordings, from where to count lane-changing maneuvers. With this objective, a semi-automatic method to reliably count lane changes form video recordings was developed and is presented in the thesis. Data analysis proved that the speed limit fulfillment was only relevant in sections with enforcement devices. In these sections, it is confirmed that, the lower the speed limit, the higher the occupancy to achieve a given flow. In contrast, the usually assumed mainline metering effect of low speed limits was not relevant. This might be different in case of stretch enforcement. These findings mean that, on the one hand, VSL strategies aiming to restrict the mainline flow on a freeway by using low speed limits will need to be applied carefully, avoiding conditions as the ones presented here. On the other hand, VSL strategies trying to get the most from the increased vehicle storage capacity of freeways under low speed limits might be rather promising. Results also show that low speed limits increase the speed differences across lanes for moderate demands. This, in turn, also increases the lane changing rates. In contrast, lower speed limits widen the range of flows under uniform lane flow distributions, so that, even for moderate to low demands, the under-utilization of any lane can be avoided. Further analysis of lane-changing activity allowed unveiling that high lane-changing rates prevent achieving the highest flows. This inverse relationship is modeled in the thesis using a stochastic model based on Bayesian inference. This model could be used as a control tool, in order to determine which level of lane-changing activity can be allowed to achieve a desired capacity with some level of reliability. Previous results identify drivers' fulfillment of traffic regulations as a weak point in order to maximize the benefits of current management strategies, like VSL or lane-changing control. This is likely to change in the near future with the irruption of Autonomous Vehicles (AV) in freeways. V2X communications will allow directly actuating on individual vehicles with high accuracy. This will open the door to new management strategies based on simultaneous communication to groups of AVs and extremely short reaction times, like platooning, which stands out as a strategy with a huge potential to improve freeway traffic. Strings of AVs traveling at extremely short gaps (i.e. platoons) allow achieving higher capacities and lower energy consumption rates. In this context, the thesis presents a parsimonious macroscopic model for AVs platooning in mixed traffic (i.e. platoons of AVs travelling together with human driven vehicles). The model allows determining the average platoon length and reproducing the overall traffic dynamics leading to higher capacities. Results prove that with a 50% penetration rate of AVs in the lane, capacity could reach 3400 veh/h/lane under a cooperative platooning strategy.Per tal de millorar la capacitat i reduir la congestió a les autopistes cal gestionar el trànsit de manera activa. Les estratègies de gestió activa del trànsit són d’especial importància en autopistes metropolitanes. La congestió provoca retards i un increment del consum de combustible que va lligat a unes majors emissions de gasos contaminants, tots amb efectes perniciosos per la societat. La gestió activa del transit requereix regular la demanda i millorar la capacitat de la via. Encara que tots dos aspectes son necessaris, la present tesis només analitza la gestió de l’oferta. Part de la recerca en l’anàlisi i la teoria del trànsit es basa en dades empíriques. Per satisfer el requeriment de dades detallades i d’alta qualitat, aquesta tesis presenta una campanya pionera de recol·lecció de dades. Les dades es van recollir a l’autopista B-23 d’accés a Barcelona. Tots els instruments de mesura es van configurar per tal de registrar les dades amb el major nivell de detall possible, incloent les càmeres de videovigilància, d’on es varen extreure els comptatges de canvi de carril. Amb aquest objectiu, es va desenvolupar una metodologia semiautomàtica per comptar canvis de carril a partir de gravacions de trànsit, que es presenta en el cos de la tesi. L’anàlisi de les dades obtingudes ha demostrat que el compliment dels límits de velocitat només resulta rellevant en aquelles seccions que compten amb un radar. És en aquestes seccions on s’ha confirmat que com menor és el límit de velocitat, major es l’ocupació per a un flux donat. Per contra, la hipòtesi habitual de que uns límits de velocitat baixos produeixen una restricció del flux no es va observar de forma rellevant. Aquest comportament podria esser diferent en el cas d’implantar un radar de tram. Els resultats obtinguts també mostren com les diferències de velocitats entre carrils s’incrementen per a límits de velocitat baixos i en condicions de demanda moderada. Això, alhora, incrementa el nombre de canvis de carril. Per contra, els límits de velocitat baixos contribueixen a una distribució de flux més uniforme entre carrils, de forma que es pot evitar la infrautilització de carrils. L’anàlisi més detallat de l’activitat de canvi de carril demostra que una taxa elevada de canvis de carril impedeix assolir fluxos grans de circulació. En la tesi, aquesta relació inversa entre la taxa de canvis de carril i el flux màxim de trànsit a l’autopista s’ha modelat de forma estocàstica utilitzant un model basat en la inferència Bayesiana. Aquest model es pot utilitzar com una eina de control, per tal de determinar quina taxa de canvi de carril es pot permetre si es vol assolir una capacitat determinada amb una determinada probabilitat de compliment. En vista dels resultats previs, la falta de compliment de les normes de trànsit per part dels conductors s’identifica com un punt dèbil a l’hora de maximitzar els beneficis de les actuals estratègies de gestió del transit. Això probablement canviarà en el futur pròxim amb la irrupció dels Vehicles Autònoms (VA) a les autopistes. Els sistemes de comunicació V2X permetran actuar individualment sobre cada vehicle amb una gran precisió. Això obrirà la porta a noves estratègies de gestió, basades en la comunicació simultània entre diferents grups de VA i en temps de reacció extremadament curts, com per exemple és el “platooning”, que destaca pel seu gran potencial per millorar el trànsit en autopista. Els “platons” son cadenes de VA viatjant amb uns espaiaments extremadament curts que permeten assolir capacitats mes elevades i un menor consum energètic. En aquest context, la tesi presenta un model macroscòpic parsimoniós per a “platons” de VA en condicions de transit mixt, és a dir, compartint la infraestructura amb vehicles tradicionals. El model permet determinar la longitud mitjana del “platons” i reproduir el trànsit global dinàmiques que condueixen a majors capacitats. Els resultats demostren que amb un 50% la velocitat de penetració dels AV al carril, la capacitat podria arribar als 3.400 vehicles / h / carril sota una estratègia cooperativa de “platooning”Award-winningPostprint (published version

Machine Learning Solutions for Transportation Networks

This thesis brings a collection of novel models and methods that result from a new look at practical problems in transportation through the prism of newly available sensor data. There are four main contributions: First, we design a generative probabilistic graphical model to describe multivariate continuous densities such as observed traffic patterns. The model implements a multivariate normal distribution with covariance constrained in a natural way, using a number of parameters that is only linear (as opposed to quadratic) in the dimensionality of the data. This means that learning these models requires less data. The primary use for such a model is to support inferences, for instance, of data missing due to sensor malfunctions. Second, we build a model of traffic flow inspired by macroscopic flow models. Unlike traditional such models, our model deals with uncertainty of measurement and unobservability of certain important quantities and incorporates on-the-fly observations more easily. Because the model does not admit efficient exact inference, we develop a particle filter. The model delivers better medium- and long- term predictions than general-purpose time series models. Moreover, having a predictive distribution of traffic state enables the application of powerful decision-making machinery to the traffic domain. Third, two new optimization algorithms for the common task of vehicle routing are designed, using the traffic flow model as their probabilistic underpinning. Their benefits include suitability to highly volatile environments and the fact that optimization criteria other than the classical minimal expected time are easily incorporated. Finally, we present a new method for detecting accidents and other adverse events. Data collected from highways enables us to bring supervised learning approaches to incident detection. We show that a support vector machine learner can outperform manually calibrated solutions. A major hurdle to performance of supervised learners is the quality of data which contains systematic biases varying from site to site. We build a dynamic Bayesian network framework that learns and rectifies these biases, leading to improved supervised detector performance with little need for manually tagged data. The realignment method applies generally to virtually all forms of labeled sequential data

Identification of Causal Paths and Prediction of Runway Incursion Risk using Bayesian Belief Networks

In the U.S. and worldwide, runway incursions are widely acknowledged as a critical concern for aviation safety. However, despite widespread attempts to reduce the frequency of runway incursions, the rate at which these events occur in the U.S. has steadily risen over the past several years. Attempts to analyze runway incursion causation have been made, but these methods are often limited to investigations of discrete events and do not address the dynamic interactions that lead to breaches of runway safety. While the generally static nature of runway incursion research is understandable given that data are often sparsely available, the unmitigated rate at which runway incursions take place indicates a need for more comprehensive risk models that extend currently available research. This dissertation summarizes the existing literature, emphasizing the need for cross-domain methods of causation analysis applied to runway incursions in the U.S. and reviewing probabilistic methodologies for reasoning under uncertainty. A holistic modeling technique using Bayesian Belief Networks as a means of interpreting causation even in the presence of sparse data is outlined in three phases: causal factor identification, model development, and expert elicitation, with intended application at the systems or regulatory agency level. Further, the importance of investigating runway incursions probabilistically and incorporating information from human factors, technological, and organizational perspectives is supported. A method for structuring a Bayesian network using quantitative and qualitative event analysis in conjunction with structured expert probability estimation is outlined and results are presented for propagation of evidence through the model as well as for causal analysis. In this research, advances in the aggregation of runway incursion data are outlined, and a means of combining quantitative and qualitative information is developed. Building upon these data, a method for developing and validating a Bayesian network while maintaining operational transferability is also presented. Further, the body of knowledge is extended with respect to structured expert judgment, as operationalization is combined with elicitation of expert data to create a technique for gathering expert assessments of probability in a computationally compact manner while preserving mathematical accuracy in rank correlation and dependence structure. The model developed in this study is shown to produce accurate results within the U.S. aviation system, and to provide a dynamic, inferential platform for future evaluation of runway incursion causation. These results in part confirm what is known about runway incursion causation, but more importantly they shed more light on multifaceted causal interactions and do so in a modeling space that allows for causal inference and evaluation of changes to the system in a dynamic setting. Suggestions for future research are also discussed, most prominent of which is that this model allows for robust and flexible assessment of mitigation strategies within a holistic model of runway safety

Incorporating General Incident Knowledge into Automatic Incident Detection: A Markov Logic Network Method

Automatic incident detection (AID) algorithms have been studied for more than 50 years. However, due to the development in some competing technologies such as cell phone call based detection, video detection, the importance of AID in traffic management has been decreasing over the years. In response to such trend, AID researchers introduced new universal and transferability requirements in addition to the traditional performance measures. Based on these requirements, the recent effort of AID research has been focused on applying new artificial intelligence (AI) models into incident detection and significant performance improvement has been observed comparing to earlier models. To fully address the new requirements, the existing AI models still have some limitations including 1) the black-box characteristics, 2) the overfitting issue, and 3) the requirement for clean, large, and accurate training data. Recently, Bayesian network (BN) based AID algorithm showed promising potentials in partially overcoming the above limitations with its open structure and explicit stochastic interpretation of incident knowledge. But BN still has its limitations such as the enforced cause-effect relationship among BN nodes and its Bayesian type of logic inference. In 2006, another more advanced statistical inference network, Markov Logic Network (MLN), was proposed in computer science, which can effectively overcome some limitations of BN and also bring the flexibility of applying various knowledge. In this study, an MLN-based AID algorithm is proposed. The proposed algorithm can interpret general types of traffic flow knowledge, not necessarily causality relationships. Meanwhile, a calibration method is also proposed to effective train the MLN. The algorithm is evaluated based on field data, collected at I-894 corridor in Milwaukee, WI. The results indicate promising potentials of the application of MLN in incident detection

Artificial Neural Networks, Non Linear Auto Regression Networks (NARX) and Causal Loop Diagram Approaches for Modelling Bridge Infrastructure Conditions

The quality of highway bridge infrastructure in United States is of major concern. One in every four bridges in the US is deficient. This research applied Artificial Intelligence, Systems Dynamics and linear modeling techniques to investigate the causes and effects of bridge deterioration and to forecast bridge infrastructure condition and improvement costs. The main contribution of the research is the development and demonstration of these methods within the context of highway bridges. These methods provide bridge designers and policy makers new tools for maintaining, improving, and delivering high quality bridge infrastructure. To start with, a comprehensive review of the current state of bridge deficiency in US was conducted. Through extensive data mining of the National Bridge Inventory (NBI), the causes and trends in bridge deficiency were identified. This exercise addressed questions such as: What is the current extent of bridge deficiency? Is deficiency getting better or worse? What are the biggest problems causing deficiencies? It was observed that though the general condition of bridges is improving, additional work needs to be done in fixing bridge deficiency and bridge functionally obsolescence in particular. Subsequent to the review of bridge deficiency, four distinct but related modeling studies were conducted. These phases are: 1) Capacity Obsolescence/Sustainability assessment, 2) Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) and linear modeling for bridge improvement costs, 3) Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model for bridge condition ratings and bridge variable effects, 4) Non-linear auto regression (NARX) model for bridge inventory condition prediction. In the first phase, a conceptual model was developed to minimize capacity obsolescence, one face of functional obsolescence. A framework was developed to minimize bridge capacity obsolescence while optimizing the use of embodied energy over the service life of bridges. The research demonstrated how design phase consideration of bridge obsolescence can contribute to sustainability of bridge infrastructure. As a novel approach for studying bridge improvement costs, the second phase used a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD), a tool used in the field of System Dynamics. Using a CLD, the causes and effects for bridge deterioration were qualitatively described. A segment of the qualitative relationships described through the CLD were then analyzed quantitatively for the South Carolina bridge inventory. The quantitative model was based on linear modeling and was developed and validated using NBI data. The model was then applied to estimate future bridge inventory sufficiency ratings and improvement costs under possible funding scenarios. For effective mitigation of bridge deficiency, it is important to identify the effects of different variables on bridge conditions and forecast bridge condition. In the third phase of modeling, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) models were used to study the effects of bridge variables on bridge deck and superstructure condition ratings. The models considered prestressed concrete bridges in South Eastern United States. Simulations based on Full Factorial Design (FFD) were conducted using the developed ANN models. The simulations highlighted the effects of skew, span and age on bridge condition ratings. Given sufficient source data, the approach can be broadly applied to consider other bridge types and design variables. In the last phase, time based ANN learning algorithms were used to forecast bridge condition ratings and bridge improvement costs. Non Linear Auto Regression with Exogenous Inputs (NARX) model was developed using NBI data for South Carolina bridges over the last decade. The study estimated bridge condition ratings as a function of bridge geometry, age, structural, traffic attributes and bridge improvement spending. This doctoral research contributed to the development of multiple qualitative and mathematical models for forecasting bridge inventory condition and improvement costs by applying ANN, CLD, and linear regression techniques. While the conclusions of these studies are bound by the scope of the data and methodical constraints of the research, the methods can be more generally applied to aid in better bridge management policies and contribute to sustainable bridge infrastructure in United States

Dynamic Vehicular Routing in Urban Environments

Traffic congestion is a persistent issue that most of the people living in a city have to face every day. Traffic density is constantly increasing and, in many metropolitan areas, the road network has reached its limits and cannot easily be extended to meet the growing traffic demand. Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) is a world wide trend in traffic monitoring that uses technology and infrastructure improvements in advanced communication and sensors to tackle transportation issues such as mobility efficiency, safety, and traffic congestion. The purpose of ITS is to take advantage of all available technologies to improve every aspect of mobility and traffic. Our focus in this thesis is to use these advancements in technology and infrastructure to mitigate traffic congestion. We discuss the state of the art in traffic flow optimization methods, their limitations, and the benefits of a new point of view. The traffic monitoring mechanism that we propose uses vehicular telecommunication to gather the traffic information that is fundamental to the creation of a consistent overview of the traffic situation, to provision real-time information to drivers, and to optimizing their routes. In order to study the impact of dynamic rerouting on the traffic congestion experienced in the urban environment, we need a reliable representation of the traffic situation. In this thesis, traffic flow theory, together with mobility models and propagation models, are the basis to providing a simulation environment capable of providing a realistic and interactive urban mobility, which is used to test and validate our solution for mitigating traffic congestion. The topology of the urban environment plays a fundamental role in traffic optimization, not only in terms of mobility patterns, but also in the connectivity and infrastructure available. Given the complexity of the problem, we start by defining the main parameters we want to optimize, and the user interaction required, in order to achieve the goal. We aim to optimize the travel time from origin to destination with a selfish approach, focusing on each driver. We then evaluated constraints and added values of the proposed optimization, providing a preliminary study on its impact on a simple scenario. Our evaluation is made in a best-case scenario using complete information, then in a more realistic scenario with partial information on the global traffic situation, where connectivity and coverage play a major role. The lack of a general-purpose, freely-available, realistic and dependable scenario for Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks (VANETs) creates many problems in the research community in providing and comparing realistic results. To address these issues, we implemented a synthetic traffic scenario, based on a real city, to evaluate dynamic routing in a realistic urban environment. The Luxembourg SUMO Traffic (LuST) Scenario is based on the mobility derived from the City of Luxembourg. The scenario is built for the Simulator of Urban MObiltiy (SUMO) and it is compatible with Vehicles in Network Simulation (VEINS) and Objective Modular Network Testbed in C++ (OMNet++), allowing it to be used in VANET simulations. In this thesis we present a selfish traffic optimization approach based on dynamic rerouting, able to mitigate the impact of traffic congestion in urban environments on a global scale. The general-purpose traffic scenario built to validate our results is already being used by the research community, and is freely-available under the MIT licence, and is hosted on GitHub

Holistic Temporal Situation Interpretation for Traffic Participant Prediction

For a profound understanding of traffic situations including a prediction of traf- fic participants’ future motion, behaviors and routes it is crucial to incorporate all available environmental observations. The presence of sensor noise and depen- dency uncertainties, the variety of available sensor data, the complexity of large traffic scenes and the large number of different estimation tasks with diverging requirements require a general method that gives a robust foundation for the de- velopment of estimation applications. In this work, a general description language, called Object-Oriented Factor Graph Modeling Language (OOFGML), is proposed, that unifies formulation of esti- mation tasks from the application-oriented problem description via the choice of variable and probability distribution representation through to the inference method definition in implementation. The different language properties are dis- cussed theoretically using abstract examples. The derivation of explicit application examples is shown for the automated driv- ing domain. A domain-specific ontology is defined which forms the basis for four exemplary applications covering the broad spectrum of estimation tasks in this domain: Basic temporal filtering, ego vehicle localization using advanced interpretations of perceived objects, road layout perception utilizing inter-object dependencies and finally highly integrated route, behavior and motion estima- tion to predict traffic participant’s future actions. All applications are evaluated as proof of concept and provide an example of how their class of estimation tasks can be represented using the proposed language. The language serves as a com- mon basis and opens a new field for further research towards holistic solutions for automated driving

Dynamic modelling of demand risk in PPP infrastructure projects : “The case of toll roads”

Infrastructure is the main driver of prosperity and economic development. To fill the gap between increasing demand for infrastructure and supply, the role of the private financing has become increasingly critical. Concession contracts in which the investment cost is recovered via payments from the end users are the most dominant among all PPP types. Although this mechanism has been seen as an efficient way to achieve infrastructure projects in terms of realising the project on time and to budget, the demand risk faced in the operation stage has heavily limited this efficiency. Evidence has shown that shortfall in demand can seriously jeopardize the scheme’s viability. Demand is dependent on a range of interrelated, dynamic factors such as economic conditions, willingness to pay and tariff for using the facility. In addition, uncertainty is an inherent aspect of most demand-underlying factors which makes demand estimation subject to high level of uncertainty. However, this uncertainty is largely ignored by modellers and planners and single demand estimate is often used when evaluating the facility. Given the threat to the project success resulting from potential variation between predicted and actual demand, it is believed that a demand risk assessment model is essential. This research is therefore devoted to developing a system dynamics model to assess demand risk by capturing the factors affecting demand and their relationships and simulating their change over time. A system dynamics based conceptual model was developed for mapping factors affecting demand for service provided by a typical PPP concession project. The model has five Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) which include: socio-economic, public satisfaction, willingness to pay, competition and level of fee. Based on the developed conceptual model, a quantitative simulation model for assessing traffic demand in toll road projects was developed. This model has six sub-models which are: socio-economic, public satisfaction, willingness to pay, competition, toll and expansion factors sub-models. With the use of case study of M6 toll roads (UK), it was demonstrated the potential application of SD as a tool for the assessment of demand risk in toll roads. Univariate and multivariate sensitivity analysis, as well as risk analysis using Monte Carlo approach, were conducted using the developed SD model. Univariate sensitivity analysis helps identify the significance of the demand underlying factors when they change individually. Toll was identified as the most critical factor affecting toll traffic demand followed by congestion on the alternative un-tolled facility. Multivariate sensitivity analysis showed how demand changes when several factors change. Four scenarios were developed to show the impact of change in conditions and policies on the level of traffic. Monte Carlo simulation, on the other hand, provided level of demand with a range of confidence intervals. Providing such estimates of the expected value and the confidence level offers useful information throughout their ranges and creates overall risk profiles by providing the probability of achieving a specific result. The main contribution of the research is in the development of a system dynamics model as a tool for assessing demand in PPP projects and informing decision making, which is new to the area of demand risk modelling