Reinterpreting Interpretability for Fuzzy Linguistic Descriptions of Data

Postprin

Explainable Neural Networks based Anomaly Detection for Cyber-Physical Systems

Cyber-Physical Systems (CPSs) are the core of modern critical infrastructure (e.g. power-grids) and securing them is of paramount importance. Anomaly detection in data is crucial for CPS security. While Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are strong candidates for the task, they are seldom deployed in safety-critical domains due to the perception that ANNs are black-boxes. Therefore, to leverage ANNs in CPSs, cracking open the black box through explanation is essential. The main objective of this dissertation is developing explainable ANN-based Anomaly Detection Systems for Cyber-Physical Systems (CP-ADS). The main objective was broken down into three sub-objectives: 1) Identifying key-requirements that an explainable CP-ADS should satisfy, 2) Developing supervised ANN-based explainable CP-ADSs, 3) Developing unsupervised ANN-based explainable CP-ADSs. In achieving those objectives, this dissertation provides the following contributions: 1) a set of key-requirements that an explainable CP-ADS should satisfy, 2) a methodology for deriving summaries of the knowledge of a trained supervised CP-ADS, 3) a methodology for validating derived summaries, 4) an unsupervised neural network methodology for learning cyber-physical (CP) behavior, 5) a methodology for visually and linguistically explaining the learned CP behavior. All the methods were implemented on real-world and benchmark datasets. The set of key-requirements presented in the first contribution was used to evaluate the performance of the presented methods. The successes and limitations of the presented methods were identified. Furthermore, steps that can be taken to overcome the limitations were proposed. Therefore, this dissertation takes several necessary steps toward developing explainable ANN-based CP-ADS and serves as a framework that can be expanded to develop trustworthy ANN-based CP-ADSs

Explainable pattern modelling and summarization in sensor equipped smart homes of elderly

In the next several decades, the proportion of the elderly population is expected to increase significantly. This has led to various efforts to help live them independently for longer periods of time. Smart homes equipped with sensors provide a potential solution by capturing various behavioral and physiological patterns of the residents. In this work, we develop techniques to model and detect changes in these patterns. The focus is on methods that are explainable in nature and allow for generating natural language descriptions. We propose a comprehensive change description framework that can detect unusual changes in the sensor parameters and describe the data leading to those changes in natural language. An approach that models and detects variations in physiological and behavioral routines of the elderly forms one part of the change description framework. The second part comes from a natural language generation system in which we identify important health-relevant features from the sensor parameters. Throughout this dissertation, we validate the developed techniques using both synthetic and real data obtained from the homes of the elderly living in sensor-equipped facilities. Using multiple real data retrospective case studies, we show that our methods are able to detect variations in the sensor data that are correlated with important health events in the elderly as recorded in their Electronic Health Records.Includes bibliographical reference

A HEDGE ALGEBRAS BASED CLASSIFICATION REASONING METHOD WITH MULTI-GRANULARITY FUZZY PARTITIONING

During last years, lots of the fuzzy rule based classifier (FRBC) design methods have been proposed to improve the classification accuracy and the interpretability of the proposed classification models. Most of them are based on the fuzzy set theory approach in such a way that the fuzzy classification rules are generated from the grid partitions combined with the pre-designed fuzzy partitions using fuzzy sets. Some mechanisms are studied to automatically generate fuzzy partitions from data such as discretization, granular computing, etc. Even those, linguistic terms are intuitively assigned to fuzzy sets because there is no formalisms to link inherent semantics of linguistic terms to fuzzy sets. In view of that trend, genetic design methods of linguistic terms along with their (triangular and trapezoidal) fuzzy sets based semantics for FRBCs, using hedge algebras as the mathematical formalism, have been proposed. Those hedge algebras-based design methods utilize semantically quantifying mapping values of linguistic terms to generate their fuzzy sets based semantics so as to make use of fuzzy sets based-classification reasoning methods proposed in design methods based on fuzzy set theoretic approach for data classification. If there exists a classification reasoning method which bases merely on semantic parameters of hedge algebras, fuzzy sets-based semantics of the linguistic terms in fuzzy classification rule bases can be replaced by semantics - based hedge algebras. This paper presents a FRBC design method based on hedge algebras approach by introducing a hedge algebra- based classification reasoning method with multi-granularity fuzzy partitioning for data classification so that the semantic of linguistic terms in rule bases can be hedge algebras-based semantics. Experimental results over 17 real world datasets are compared to existing methods based on hedge algebras and the state-of-the-art fuzzy sets theoretic-based approaches, showing that the proposed FRBC in this paper is an effective classifier and produces good results

Review of Nature-Inspired Forecast Combination Techniques

Effective and efficient planning in various areas can be significantly supported by forecasting a variable like an economy growth rate or product demand numbers for a future point in time. More than one forecast for the same variable is often available, leading to the question whether one should choose one of the single models or combine several of them to obtain a forecast with improved accuracy. In the almost 40 years of research in the area of forecast combination, an impressive amount of work has been done. This paper reviews forecast combination techniques that are nonlinear and have in some way been inspired by nature

IMPROVING UNDERSTANDABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY MODELING OF DATA USING FUZZY LOGIC SYSTEMS

The need for automation, optimality and efficiency has made modern day control and monitoring systems extremely complex and data abundant. However, the complexity of the systems and the abundance of raw data has reduced the understandability and interpretability of data which results in a reduced state awareness of the system. Furthermore, different levels of uncertainty introduced by sensors and actuators make interpreting and accurately manipulating systems difficult. Classical mathematical methods lack the capability to capture human knowledge and increase understandability while modeling such uncertainty. Fuzzy Logic has been shown to alleviate both these problems by introducing logic based on vague terms that rely on human understandable terms. The use of linguistic terms and simple consequential rules increase the understandability of system behavior as well as data. Use of vague terms and modeling data from non-discrete prototypes enables modeling of uncertainty. However, due to recent trends, the primary research of fuzzy logic have been diverged from the basic concept of understandability. Furthermore, high computational costs to achieve robust uncertainty modeling have led to restricted use of such fuzzy systems in real-world applications. Thus, the goal of this dissertation is to present algorithms and techniques that improve understandability and uncertainty modeling using Fuzzy Logic Systems. In order to achieve this goal, this dissertation presents the following major contributions: 1) a novel methodology for generating Fuzzy Membership Functions based on understandability, 2) Linguistic Summarization of data using if-then type consequential rules, and 3) novel Shadowed Type-2 Fuzzy Logic Systems for uncertainty modeling. Finally, these presented techniques are applied to real world systems and data to exemplify their relevance and usage

Combining semantic web technologies with evolving fuzzy classifier eClass for EHR-based phenotyping : a feasibility study

In parallel to nation-wide efforts for setting up shared electronic health records (EHRs) across healthcare settings, several large-scale national and international projects are developing, validating, and deploying electronic EHR oriented phenotype algorithms that aim at large-scale use of EHRs data for genomic studies. A current bottleneck in using EHRs data for obtaining computable phenotypes is to transform the raw EHR data into clinically relevant features. The research study presented here proposes a novel combination of Semantic Web technologies with the on-line evolving fuzzy classifier eClass to obtain and validate EHR-driven computable phenotypes derived from 1956 clinical statements from EHRs. The evaluation performed with clinicians demonstrates the feasibility and practical acceptability of the approach proposed

A multilayer multimodal detection and prediction model based on explainable artificial intelligence for Alzheimer’s disease

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is the most common type of dementia. Its diagnosis and progression detection have been intensively studied. Nevertheless, research studies often have little effect on clinical practice mainly due to the following reasons: (1) Most studies depend mainly on a single modality, especially neuroimaging; (2) diagnosis and progression detection are usually studied separately as two independent problems; and (3) current studies concentrate mainly on optimizing the performance of complex machine learning models, while disregarding their explainability. As a result, physicians struggle to interpret these models, and feel it is hard to trust them. In this paper, we carefully develop an accurate and interpretable AD diagnosis and progression detection model. This model provides physicians with accurate decisions along with a set of explanations for every decision. Specifically, the model integrates 11 modalities of 1048 subjects from the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) real-world dataset: 294 cognitively normal, 254 stable mild cognitive impairment (MCI), 232 progressive MCI, and 268 AD. It is actually a two-layer model with random forest (RF) as classifier algorithm. In the first layer, the model carries out a multi-class classification for the early diagnosis of AD patients. In the second layer, the model applies binary classification to detect possible MCI-to-AD progression within three years from a baseline diagnosis. The performance of the model is optimized with key markers selected from a large set of biological and clinical measures. Regarding explainability, we provide, for each layer, global and instance-based explanations of the RF classifier by using the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) feature attribution framework. In addition, we implement 22 explainers based on decision trees and fuzzy rule-based systems to provide complementary justifications for every RF decision in each layer. Furthermore, these explanations are represented in natural language form to help physicians understand the predictions. The designed model achieves a cross-validation accuracy of 93.95% and an F1-score of 93.94% in the first layer, while it achieves a cross-validation accuracy of 87.08% and an F1-Score of 87.09% in the second layer. The resulting system is not only accurate, but also trustworthy, accountable, and medically applicable, thanks to the provided explanations which are broadly consistent with each other and with the AD medical literature. The proposed system can help to enhance the clinical understanding of AD diagnosis and progression processes by providing detailed insights into the effect of different modalities on the disease riskThis work was supported by National Research Foundation of Korea-Grant funded by the Korean Government (Ministry of Science and ICT)-NRF-2020R1A2B5B02002478). In addition, Dr. Jose M. Alonso is Ramon y Cajal Researcher (RYC-2016-19802), and its research is supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities (grants RTI2018-099646-B-I00, TIN2017-84796-C2-1-R, TIN2017-90773-REDT, and RED2018-102641-T) and the Galician Ministry of Education, University and Professional Training (grants ED431F 2018/02, ED431C 2018/29, ED431G/08, and ED431G2019/04), with all grants co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF/FEDER program)S