Issues in the Probability Elicitation Process of Expert-Based Bayesian Networks

A major challenge in constructing a Bayesian network (BN) is defining the node probability tables (NPT), which can be learned from data or elicited from domain experts. In practice, it is common not to have enough data for learning, and elicitation from experts is the only option. However, the complexity of defining NPT grows exponentially, making their elicitation process costly and error-prone. In this research, we conducted an exploratory study through a literature review that identified the main issues related to the task of probability elicitation and solutions to construct large-scale NPT while reducing the exposure to these issues. In this chapter, we present in detail three semiautomatic methods that reduce the burden for experts. We discuss the benefits and drawbacks of these methods, and present directions on how to improve them

A fuzzy Bayesian network approach for risk analysis in process industries

YesFault tree analysis is a widely used method of risk assessment in process industries. However, the classical fault tree approach has its own limitations such as the inability to deal with uncertain failure data and to consider statistical dependence among the failure events. In this paper, we propose a comprehensive framework for the risk assessment in process industries under the conditions of uncertainty and statistical dependency of events. The proposed approach makes the use of expert knowledge and fuzzy set theory for handling the uncertainty in the failure data and employs the Bayesian network modeling for capturing dependency among the events and for a robust probabilistic reasoning in the conditions of uncertainty. The effectiveness of the approach was demonstrated by performing risk assessment in an ethylene transportation line unit in an ethylene oxide (EO) production plant

Critical evaluation of competitiveness of SMEs in Chinese Yangtze river delta

This thesis was submitted for the award of Doctor of Philosophy and was awarded by Brunel University LondonChina has continued the economic reform and open door policy over 30 years with many great achievements, such as the second largest GDP, the largest import and export economy with the largest infrastructural investment in the world. On the other hand, the conflicts and risks the firms especially for small and medium sized manufacturing enterprises (SMEs) have faced are extremely serious and more acute due to the economy growth and increasing social wealth, especially in Yangtze River Delta, in the general context of ever increasing cost such as labour, land and higher customers’ expectations such as the quality of product. These serious problems are challenges for the competitiveness of SMEs in Yangtze River Delta. This research aims to investigate and improve the competitiveness of SMEs by the main variables such as enterprise’s resources, product’s competitive issues and innovation activities related barriers. To achieve the aim, the research employed a mixed method of quantitative and qualitative approaches to build the competitiveness’s belief network model by Bayesian Belief Networks and analyze the factors of the most important variables by the SPSS software. Secondly, 36 entrepreneurs of small and medium sized manufacturing enterprises in Yangtze River Delta have been carefully selected to participate in the questionnaire survey and face to face interviews. All participants are entrepreneurs who have run enterprise for at least three years. Five kinds of resources, competitive issues and innovation have been identified as the variables of competitiveness. The findings of research are mainly related to the three aspects which are general view of variables; barriers to innovation activity and importance of variables for improving the competitiveness; and the factor analysis of quality management practices. Firstly, the general condition of financial resource is the worst in resource sector of SMEs; Dependability is the best performance in competitive issues of SMEs; Lack of finance is generally identified the biggest barrier to innovation of SMEs. Secondly, the Physical resource in resource sector and Quality in competitive issues sector are the most important variables for improving the competitiveness of SMEs after BBN assessment; Lack of technical experts is the most serious barrier when the SMEs are really focusing on the innovation according to the BBN assessments. Thirdly, the factor analyses have identified the key independent factors explaining the quality management practices in these SMEs. Finally, these findings can help the SMEs build variables’ impact tables based on the outputs from the conditional assessment of BBNs to make more efficient and effective decisions when they try to improve the enterprise competitiveness, with detailed recommendations. At the same time, the importance and factors of good quality management practices have also been argued to help the entrepreneurs improve the quality performance and their enterprise competitiveness

Assessing ecosystem services from multifunctional trees in pastures using Bayesian belief networks

A Bayesian belief network (BBN) was developed to assess preferred combinations of trees in live fences and on pastures in silvopastoral systems. The BBN was created with information from Rivas, Nicaragua, using local farmer knowledge on tree species, trees' costs and benefits, farmers' expressed needs and aspirations, and scientific knowledge regarding tree functional traits and their contribution to ecosystem services and benefits. The model identifies combinations of trees, which provide multiple ecosystem services from pastures, improving their productivity and contribution to farmer livelihoods. We demonstrate how the identification of portfolios of multifunctional trees can satisfy a profile of desired ecosystem services prioritized by the farmer. Diagnostics using Bayesian inference starts with an identification of farmer needs and ‘works backwards’ to identify a silvopastoral system structure. We conclude that Bayesian belief networks are a promising modeling technique for multi-criteria decisions in farm adaptation processes, where interventions must be adapted to specific contexts and farmer preferences

Enhancing building performance : a Bayesian network model to support facility management

Premi Extraordinari de Doctorat, promoció 2018-2019. Àmbit d’Enginyeria Civil i AmbientalThe performance of existing buildings is receiving increased concern due to the need to renovate the aging building stock and provide better quality of life for end users. The conservation state of buildings and the indoor environment conditions have been related to occupants’ well-being, health, and productivity. At the same time, there is a need for more sustainable buildings with reduced energy consumption. Most challenges encountered during the analysis of the performance of existing buildings are associated with the complex relationships among the causal factors involved. The performance of a building is influenced by several factors (e.g., environmental agents, occupant behavior, operation, maintenance), which also generate uncertainties when predicting it. Most previous studies that investigate methods to assess a building’s performance do not consider the uncertainty and are often based on linear models. Although different stakeholders’ requirements regarding building performance coexist, few studies centered on the implications of these requirements. Previous studies tend to be highly specific on indicators related to a particular performance aspect, overlooking potential trade-offs that may occur between them. Therefore, a holistic and integrated approach to manage the performance of existing buildings has not been explored. Facility managers need an efficient approach to deal with uncertainty, to manage risks, and systematically identify, analyze, evaluate and mitigate factors that may impact the building performance. Taking into account the aforementioned aspects, the aim of this thesis is to devise a Bayesian network (BN) model to holistically manage the operational performance of buildings and support facility management. The proposed model consists of an integrated probabilistic approach to assess the performance of existing buildings, considering three categories: safety and elements working properly, health and comfort, and energy efficiency. The model also provides an understanding of the causality chain between multiple factors and indicators regarding building performance. The understanding of the relationships between building condition, end user comfort and building energy efficiency, supports facility managers to unwind a causal explanation for the performance results in a reasoning process. The proposed model is tested and validated using sensitivity analysis and data from existing buildings. A set of model applications are discussed, including the assessment of a building’s performance holistically, the identification of causal factors, the prediction of building performance through renovation and retrofit scenarios, and the prioritization of maintenance actions. Case studies also allow to illustrate the applicability of the model for ensuring that its interactions and outcomes are feasible. Scenario analyses provide a basis for a deeper understanding of the potential responses of the model, helping facility managers to optimize operation strategies of buildings in order to enhance its performance. The results of this thesis also include data collection methods for the inputs of the proposed BN model. A building inspection system is proposed to evaluate the technical performance of buildings, a text-mining approach is developed to analyze maintenance requests of end users, and a questionnaire is formulated to collect end-user satisfaction regarding building comfort. To conclude, this work proposes the use of Building Information Modeling (BIM) to store and access building information, which are typically disperse and not standardized in existing buildings.Actualmente, el desempeño de los edificios existentes es de gran interés debido a la necesidad de renovar el stock de edificios antiguos, proporcionando así una mejor calidad de vida a los usuarios finales. El estado de conservación de los edificios y las condiciones ambientales interiores se relacionan con el bienestar, la salud y la productividad de los ocupantes. Al mismo tiempo, existe la necesidad de edificios más sostenibles con un menor consumo energético. El desempeño de un edificio se ve afectado por varios factores (p.ej., agentes ambientales, comportamiento de los ocupantes, operación, mantenimiento, etc.). La mayoría de estos aspectos y causas muestran complejas relaciones, y consecuentemente existe una gran incertidumbre para predecirlo. Sin embargo, las investigaciones anteriores no contemplan estas relaciones causales y, a menudo, se basan en modelos lineales. Aunque el desempeño de los edificios se debe abordar teniendo en cuenta los requisitos de las diferentes partes interesadas, pocos estudios se centran en este enfoque. Los estudios anteriores tienden a analizar aspectos particulares del desempeño, ignorando las posibles relaciones que pueden ocurrir entre ellos. Los gestores de edificios deben abordar eficientemente la incertidumbre, gestionar los riesgos e identificar, analizar, evaluar y mitigar sistemáticamente los factores que pueden afectar el desempeño del edificio. Teniendo en cuenta los aspectos comentados anteriormente, el objetivo de esta tesis es desarrollar un modelo de red bayesiana (BN) para gestionar holísticamente el desempeño operativo de los edificios y apoyar su gestión. El modelo propuesto consiste en un enfoque probabilístico para evaluar el desempeño de los edificios existentes, considerando tres categorías: seguridad y funcionalidad, salud y confort, y eficiencia energética. El modelo también proporciona una interpretación de la cadena de causalidad entre los múltiples factores e indicadores relacionados con el desempeño del edificio. El análisis de las relaciones entre los diferentes aspectos del desempeño de los edificios (estado de conservación del edificio, el confort del usuario final y la eficiencia energética del edificio) va a permitir explicar y entender sus factores causales y va a posibilitar mejorar la gestión de estos edificios. La verificación del modelo propuesto se lleva a cabo mediante análisis de sensibilidad y datos de edificios existentes. Las aplicaciones del modelo incluyen: la evaluación del desempeño de edificios de forma integrada; la identificación de factores causales; la predicción del desempeño de los edificios a través de escenarios de renovación y modernización; y la priorización de las acciones de mantenimiento. La implementación del modelo en diversos casos de estudio permite ilustrar su aplicabilidad y validar su uso. Los resultados de esta tesis también incluyen métodos de recogida de datos para las variables del modelo propuesto. De hecho, se propone un sistema de inspección de edificios para evaluar el desempeño técnico de los edificios, se desarrolla un sistema de text mining para analizar las solicitudes de mantenimiento de los usuarios finales y se formula un cuestionario para recoger la satisfacción de los usuarios finales en relación a los espacios de los edificios en los que interactúan. Para concluir, este trabajo propone el uso del Building Information Modeling (BIM) para almacenar y acceder a la información necesaria para el modelo.Postprint (published version

Learning Bayesian Networks Using Fast Heuristics

This thesis addresses score-based learning of Bayesian networks from data using a few fast heuristics. The algorithmic implementation of the heuristics is able to learn size 30-40 networks in seconds and size 1000-2000 networks in hours. Two algorithms, which are devised by Scanagatta et al. and dubbed Independence Selection and Acyclic Selection OBS have the capacity of learning very large Bayesian networks without the liabilities of the traditional heuristics that require maximum in-degree or ordering constraints. The two algorithms are respectively called Insightful Searching and Acyclic Selection Obeying Boolean-matrix Sanctioning (acronym ASOBS) in this thesis. This thesis also serves as an expansion of the work of Scanagatta et al. by revealing a computationally simple ordering strategy called Randomised Pairing Greedy Weight (acronym RPGw) that works well as an adjunct along with ASOBS with corresponding experiment results, which show that ASOBS was able to score higher and faster with the help of RPGw. Insightful Searching, ASOBS, and RPGw together form a system that learns Bayesian networks from data very fast