Monitoring credit risk in the social economy sector by means of a binary goal programming model

The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11628-012-0173-7Monitoring the credit risk of firms in the social economy sector presents a considerable challenge, since it is difficult to calculate ratings with traditional methods such as logit or discriminant analysis, due to the relatively small number of firms in the sector and the low default rate among cooperatives. This paper intro- duces a goal programming model to overcome such constraints and to successfully manage credit risk using economic and financial information, as well as expert advice. After introducing the model, its application to a set of Spanish cooperative societies is described.García García, F.; Guijarro Martínez, F.; Moya Clemente, I. (2013). Monitoring credit risk in the social economy sector by means of a binary goal programming model. 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Default prediction of Spanish companies. A logistic analysis

Licencia Creative Commons: Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported (CC BY-NC 3.0)In the field of credit risk management, the calculation of the probability of default of companies plays a key role. For that reason, bankruptcy prediction of companies has generated extensive research in the past decades. This paper applies one of the most popular techniques, the logistic regression. This technique is extensively used both by professionals and academics and is employed in many studies as a benchmark. Here we will apply it on a vast data base of the Spanish companies and a statistical analysis of the robustness of the model will be undertaken, with very satisfactory results.Bartual Sanfeliu, C.; García García, F.; Guijarro Martínez, F.; Moya Clemente, I. (2013). Default prediction of Spanish companies. A logistic analysis. Intellectual economics. 7(3):333-343. doi:10.13165/IE-13-7-3-05S3333437

New Spanish Banking Conglomerates. Application of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to their Market Value

The Spanish financial system is undergoing profound changes, as a consequence of the present international financial crisis and the directives laid down by the European Central Bank (ECB). One of the most important of th ese changes is the emergence of new financial/banking conglomerates from the mergers of various savings banks and their transformation into IPSs (Institutional Protection Systems). Therefore, determining the value of these financial conglomerates and shares in these is of great interest. This study proposes a scheme which combines the multiple criteria AHP method with the valuation ratio of the International Valuation Standards. This new methodology can be seen as a comparative method or market approach and it only requires a limited number of comparable companies, with their corresponding qual itative and quantitative variables. For this study this valuation method has been applied to the de facto mergers of savings banks. Due to the current situation of the industry, the valuation of financial institutions of this type is a task of great interest and this also serves to showcase the strengths of the proposed methodology.Aznar Bellver, J.; Cervelló Royo, RE.; Romero-Civera, A. (2011). New Spanish Banking Conglomerates. Application of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to their Market Value. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics. 78:71-82. http://hdl.handle.net/10251/35967S71827

A revision of Altman’s Z- Score for SMEs: suggestions from the Italian Bankruptcy Law and pandemic perspectives

As the pandemic urged further investigations on the prediction of firms’ financial distress, this study develops and tests an alternative measure to the alert system elaborated by the NCCAAE which combines the benefits of the Z-score’s multivariate discriminant model with the background employed to develop the NCCAAE’ predictors. Using a sample of 43 viable and 43 non-viable Italian SMEs, we first compare the financial distress predictive accuracy of the NCCAAE’s alert system to that of the traditional Z-score over the period 2015-2019. On the basis of the results, we elaborate and compare the revised versions of both approaches which align the traditional Z-score to the current socio-economic conditions and provide an alternative measure to the NCCAAE’s alert system which embeds a Z-score calculated using the ratios elaborated by the NCCAAE for the alert system. The analysis of the two baseline approaches showed complementary results as the Z-score overperformed the alert system when predicting the status of non-viable firms whereas the opposite emerged as regards viable firms. The revised version of both approaches pointed out an enhanced predictive accuracy with respect to baseline models. In particular, the complementary role of the Z-score has been integrated into the new alert system as major contribute to its enhancement which pointed it out as the best measure employed. We, therefore, contribute to the literature studying the financial distress prediction developments by elaborating an alternative measure to the alert system developed by the NCCAAE which combines the benefits of the Z-score’s multivariate discriminant function with the background employed to develop the NCCAAE’ predictors. Our analysis enriches the post-pandemic debate on refined financial distressed prediction methods by pointing out the limits of the alert system as designed by the NCCAAE and suggests an alternative and better performing measure that may be used by third-party bodies to predict financial distress

Analyzing the Performances of Football Players Using Analytic Hierarchy Process based TOPSIS and VIKOR Methods

Bu çalışmada ülkemizde 2012-2013 sezonunda Süper Lig'de gol krallığında 15 ve daha fazla gol atan 6 futbolcunun performanslarının değerlendirilmesine çalışılmıştır. Çalışmada çok kriterli karar verme yöntemleri uygulanmıştır. Analitik Hiyerarşi Süreci (Analytic Hierarchy Proces-AHS) yöntemi ile kriterlerin ağırlıkları belirlenmiştir. Elde edilen kriter ağırlıkları öncelikle TOPSIS (Technique For Order Preference By Similarity To An Ideal Solution) yönteminde daha sonra VIKOR (Vise Kriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje) yönteminde kullanılarak futbolcuların performansları değerlendirilerek sıralama yapılmıştır. Değerlendirme sonucunda her iki yöntemde de aynı fakat atılan gol sayısına göre yapılan (gol krallığı sıralaması) sıralamadan daha farklı bir sonuç elde edilmiştir In this study, performances of Turkish Super League's top six goal scorers, who scored 15 or more goals in 2012-2013 season, have been analyzed. Multi-criteria decision-making methods have been used in the study. Analytic Hierarchy Process (Analytic Hierarchy Process-AHP) has been used to determine the weights of the criteria. Those weights have been used in TOPSIS (Technique For Order Preference By Similarity To An Ideal Solution) and VIKOR (Vise Kriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje) methods to rank football players' performances. The findings highlight that apart from the ranking of the total number of goals, all other rankings are identical in both method

Business failure research

In spite of a growing body of literature on business failures in China and effects of government policy, our understanding of the current state of knowledge remains unclear. The study advances research on the subject by developing the “four-parties” framework to review and synthesise the literature. The paper lays the groundwork for an integrated understanding of the causes and consequences of business failure. In sharp contrast with the evolution and development of Western-based business failure research, much of the literature on China and Chinese firms has focused largely on business failure prediction models by bypassing the traditional evolution from qualitative case study/story approaches to quantitative-based approaches. The study outlines the important implications and promising avenues for future research

Business failure research

In spite of a growing body of literature on business failures in China and effects of government policy, our understanding of the current state of knowledge remains unclear. The study advances research on the subject by developing the “four-parties” framework to review and synthesise the literature. The paper lays the groundwork for an integrated understanding of the causes and consequences of business failure. In sharp contrast with the evolution and development of Western-based business failure research, much of the literature on China and Chinese firms has focused largely on business failure prediction models by bypassing the traditional evolution from qualitative case study/story approaches to quantitative-based approaches. The study outlines the important implications and promising avenues for future research

Modeli za evaluaciju i izbor zaposlenih zasnovani na metodama višekriterijumskog odlučivanja

У данашње време савремене организације се налазе пред великим изазовом, а све због динамичнијих и захтевнијих услова пословања. Запослени представљају кључни фактор на основу којег организације постижу и задржавају конкурентску предност. Из тог разлога, менаџмент људских ресурса представља важну пословну активност од које зависи успех организације. Из тог разлога, процесу регрутације и селекције кадрова се посвећује посебна пажња. Избор компетентних запослених се најчешће одвија у кратком временском интервалу, док са друге стране организација тежи да запослени остану што дуже у организацији. Током времена предложено је више приступа, алата и техника за избор запослених. Традиционалне методе најчешће за евалуацију кандидата укључују статистичке анализе, тестове личности и сл. У циљу смањења субјективности и интуитивности у процесу селекције кадрова, на располагању су и технике које се заснивају на примени метода вишекритеријумског одлучивања. Сходно томе, докторска дисертација има за циљ да предложи вишекритеријумске оквире тј. моделе за избор кадрова. Модели се заснивају на примени Step‐Wise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis - SWARA , Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution - TOPSIS и Combined Compromise Solution – CoCoSo метода. SWARA метода је у докторској дисертацији примењена за дефинисање тежина евалуационих критеријума. За коначно рангирање алтернатива односно кандидата примењене су TOPSIS и CoCoSo методе.U današnje vreme savremene organizacije se nalaze pred velikim izazovom, a sve zbog dinamičnijih i zahtevnijih uslova poslovanja. Zaposleni predstavljaju ključni faktor na osnovu kojeg organizacije postižu i zadržavaju konkurentsku prednost. Iz tog razloga, menadžment ljudskih resursa predstavlja važnu poslovnu aktivnost od koje zavisi uspeh organizacije. Iz tog razloga, procesu regrutacije i selekcije kadrova se posvećuje posebna pažnja. Izbor kompetentnih zaposlenih se najčešće odvija u kratkom vremenskom intervalu, dok sa druge strane organizacija teži da zaposleni ostanu što duže u organizaciji. Tokom vremena predloženo je više pristupa, alata i tehnika za izbor zaposlenih. Tradicionalne metode najčešće za evaluaciju kandidata uključuju statističke analize, testove ličnosti i sl. U cilju smanjenja subjektivnosti i intuitivnosti u procesu selekcije kadrova, na raspolaganju su i tehnike koje se zasnivaju na primeni metoda višekriterijumskog odlučivanja. Shodno tome, doktorska disertacija ima za cilj da predloži višekriterijumske okvire tj. modele za izbor kadrova. Modeli se zasnivaju na primeni Step‐Wise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis - SWARA , Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution - TOPSIS i Combined Compromise Solution – CoCoSo metoda. SWARA metoda je u doktorskoj disertaciji primenjena za definisanje težina evaluacionih kriterijuma. Za konačno rangiranje alternativa odnosno kandidata primenjene su TOPSIS i CoCoSo metode

Evaluation of organisation employee knowledge synergy

Disertacijoje nagrinėjama organizacijos žinių sinergijos vertinimo, taikant sisteminį požiūrį, problema. Sisteminis žinių sinergijos vertinimas svarbus organizacijoms siekiant koreguoti, keisti arba integruoti naujas žinių dalijimosi bei bendradarbiavimo skatinimo priemones, siekiant geresnių veiklos rezultatų ir taip didinant organizacijos potencialą. Tyrimų objektas – darbuotojų žinių sinergijos vertinimas organizacijoje. Darbo tikslas – sukurti organizacijos darbuotojų žinių sinergijos vertinimo metodų rinkinį, kurio taikymas leistų kiekybiškai įvertinti organizacijos darbuotojų žinių sinergiją ir jos komponentus bei sudarytų prielaidas teikti pagrįstus darbuotojų žinių ir ryšių tarp darbuotojų valdymo tobulinimo siūlymus. Disertaciją sudaro įvadas, keturi skyriai, bendrosios išvados ir dešimt priedų. Pirmame disertacijos skyriuje išanalizuota žinių svarba ir probleminės sritys žinių visuomenėje, apžvelgta žinių sklaida, atskleistos žinių sinergijos formavimosi prielaidos, suformuluotas žinių sinergijos apibrėžimas bei pagrįstas šios sąvokos naudojimas, atlikta išsami mokslinių šaltinių analizė sinergijos, žinių sinergijos sampratos tema. Antrame disertacijos skyriuje išanalizuota žinių sinergijos vertinimo metodinė bazė, išgryninti žinių sinergijos komponentai, o atlikus įvairių šaltinių kritinę analizę pagrįstas žinių sinergijos vertinimo metodų rinkinio kūrimo tikslingumas. Trečiame disertacijos skyriuje aprašytas parengtas žinių sinergijos vertinimo metodų rinkinys, išskirti žinių sinergijos tipai, atsižvelgiant į ryšių susiformavimą organizacijoje. Metodų rinkinio esmė – komponentai vertinami kiekybiškai taikant grafų teoriją, kombinatoriką ir daugiakriterinius vertinimo metodus. Kiekybinio organizacijos žinių sinergijos vertinimo rezultatai sudaro prielaidas išgryninti pažangius bei probleminius veiklos procesus, t. y. atlikti išsamų ir tikslų įvertinimą, ir priimti sprendimus veikloms efektyvinti. Ketvirtame skyriuje pateikta žinių sinergijos vertinimo schema bei aprašyta žinių sinergijos vertinimo metodų rinkinio taikymo metodika. Šiame skyriuje taip pat pateikti žinių sinergijos vertinimo metodų rinkinio eksperimentinio taikymo organizacijose rezultatai, kurie pagrindžia žinių sinergijos vertinimo metodų rinkinio naudą organizacijos veiklos procesų analizei