Long-Term Load Forecasting Considering Volatility Using Multiplicative Error Model

Long-term load forecasting plays a vital role for utilities and planners in terms of grid development and expansion planning. An overestimate of long-term electricity load will result in substantial wasted investment in the construction of excess power facilities, while an underestimate of future load will result in insufficient generation and unmet demand. This paper presents first-of-its-kind approach to use multiplicative error model (MEM) in forecasting load for long-term horizon. MEM originates from the structure of autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model where conditional variance is dynamically parameterized and it multiplicatively interacts with an innovation term of time-series. Historical load data, accessed from a U.S. regional transmission operator, and recession data for years 1993-2016 is used in this study. The superiority of considering volatility is proven by out-of-sample forecast results as well as directional accuracy during the great economic recession of 2008. To incorporate future volatility, backtesting of MEM model is performed. Two performance indicators used to assess the proposed model are mean absolute percentage error (for both in-sample model fit and out-of-sample forecasts) and directional accuracy.Comment: 19 pages, 11 figures, 3 table

A MPC Strategy for the Optimal Management of Microgrids Based on Evolutionary Optimization

In this paper, a novel model predictive control strategy, with a 24-h prediction horizon, is proposed to reduce the operational cost of microgrids. To overcome the complexity of the optimization problems arising from the operation of the microgrid at each step, an adaptive evolutionary strategy with a satisfactory trade-off between exploration and exploitation capabilities was added to the model predictive control. The proposed strategy was evaluated using a representative microgrid that includes a wind turbine, a photovoltaic plant, a microturbine, a diesel engine, and an energy storage system. The achieved results demonstrate the validity of the proposed approach, outperforming a global scheduling planner-based on a genetic algorithm by 14.2% in terms of operational cost. In addition, the proposed approach also better manages the use of the energy storage system.Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad DPI2016-75294-C2-2-RUnión Europea (Programa Horizonte 2020) 76409

An Overview of the Use of Neural Networks for Data Mining Tasks

In the recent years the area of data mining has experienced a considerable demand for technologies that extract knowledge from large and complex data sources. There is a substantial commercial interest as well as research investigations in the area that aim to develop new and improved approaches for extracting information, relationships, and patterns from datasets. Artificial Neural Networks (NN) are popular biologically inspired intelligent methodologies, whose classification, prediction and pattern recognition capabilities have been utilised successfully in many areas, including science, engineering, medicine, business, banking, telecommunication, and many other fields. This paper highlights from a data mining perspective the implementation of NN, using supervised and unsupervised learning, for pattern recognition, classification, prediction and cluster analysis, and focuses the discussion on their usage in bioinformatics and financial data analysis tasks

An efficient framework for short-term electricity price forecasting in deregulated power market

It is widely acknowledged that electricity price forecasting become an essential factor in operational activities, planning, and scheduling for the participant in the price-setting market, nowadays. Nevertheless, electricity price became a complex signal due to its non-stationary, non-linearity, and time-variant behavior. Consequently, a variety of artificial intelligence techniques are proposed to provide an efficient method for short-term electricity price forecasting. BSA as the recent augmentation of optimization technique, yield the potential of searching a closed-form solution in mathematical modeling with a higher probability, obviating the necessity to comprehend the correlations between variables. Concurrently, this study also developed a feature selection technique, to select the input variables subsets that have a substantial implication on forecasting of electricity price, based on a combination of mutual information (MI) and SVM. For the verification of simulation results, actual data sets from the Ontario energy market in the year 2020 covering various weather seasons are acquired. Finally, the obtained results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed strategy through improved preciseness in comparison with the distinctive methods.©2021 Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. For more information, see https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This research has been supported by University of Vaasa under Profi4/WP2 project with the financial support provided by the Academy of Finland.fi=vertaisarvioitu|en=peerReviewed

Risk Management using Model Predictive Control

Forward planning and risk management are crucial for the success of any system or business dealing with the uncertainties of the real world. Previous approaches have largely assumed that the future will be similar to the past, or used simple forecasting techniques based on ad-hoc models. Improving solutions requires better projection of future events, and necessitates robust forward planning techniques that consider forecasting inaccuracies. This work advocates risk management through optimal control theory, and proposes several techniques to combine it with time-series forecasting. Focusing on applications in foreign exchange (FX) and battery energy storage systems (BESS), the contributions of this thesis are three-fold. First, a short-term risk management system for FX dealers is formulated as a stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) problem in which the optimal risk-cost profiles are obtained through dynamic control of the dealers’ positions on the spot market. Second, grammatical evolution (GE) is used to automate non-linear time-series model selection, validation, and forecasting. Third, a novel measure for evaluating forecasting models, as a part of the predictive model in finite horizon optimal control applications, is proposed. Using both synthetic and historical data, the proposed techniques were validated and benchmarked. It was shown that the stochastic FX risk management system exhibits better risk management on a risk-cost Pareto frontier compared to rule-based hedging strategies, with up to 44.7% lower cost for the same level of risk. Similarly, for a real-world BESS application, it was demonstrated that the GE optimised forecasting models outperformed other prediction models by at least 9%, improving the overall peak shaving capacity of the system to 57.6%

Risk Management using Model Predictive Control

Forward planning and risk management are crucial for the success of any system or business dealing with the uncertainties of the real world. Previous approaches have largely assumed that the future will be similar to the past, or used simple forecasting techniques based on ad-hoc models. Improving solutions requires better projection of future events, and necessitates robust forward planning techniques that consider forecasting inaccuracies. This work advocates risk management through optimal control theory, and proposes several techniques to combine it with time-series forecasting. Focusing on applications in foreign exchange (FX) and battery energy storage systems (BESS), the contributions of this thesis are three-fold. First, a short-term risk management system for FX dealers is formulated as a stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) problem in which the optimal risk-cost profiles are obtained through dynamic control of the dealers’ positions on the spot market. Second, grammatical evolution (GE) is used to automate non-linear time-series model selection, validation, and forecasting. Third, a novel measure for evaluating forecasting models, as a part of the predictive model in finite horizon optimal control applications, is proposed. Using both synthetic and historical data, the proposed techniques were validated and benchmarked. It was shown that the stochastic FX risk management system exhibits better risk management on a risk-cost Pareto frontier compared to rule-based hedging strategies, with up to 44.7% lower cost for the same level of risk. Similarly, for a real-world BESS application, it was demonstrated that the GE optimised forecasting models outperformed other prediction models by at least 9%, improving the overall peak shaving capacity of the system to 57.6%

A Survey on Data Mining Techniques Applied to Energy Time Series Forecasting

Data mining has become an essential tool during the last decade to analyze large sets of data. The variety of techniques it includes and the successful results obtained in many application fields, make this family of approaches powerful and widely used. In particular, this work explores the application of these techniques to time series forecasting. Although classical statistical-based methods provides reasonably good results, the result of the application of data mining outperforms those of classical ones. Hence, this work faces two main challenges: (i) to provide a compact mathematical formulation of the mainly used techniques; (ii) to review the latest works of time series forecasting and, as case study, those related to electricity price and demand markets.Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad TIN2014-55894-C2-RJunta de Andalucía P12- TIC-1728Universidad Pablo de Olavide APPB81309

Energy modelling in the South African electric power industry

The subject of this thesis is the development of a modelling system for the planning of the South African electricity supply industry. A power system planning process was developed with the object of ~stablishing a long-range development plan that would enable the selection and timing of individual projects. This planning process is represented by several sub-models which include the prediction of future demands, the assessment of the generating capacity and the proportions of the different types of generating plant on the system (the plant "mix"), the analysis of the transmission network performances and the simulation of the financial processes. One of the characteristics of the modelling system presented is its three-stage structure. The first stage is represented by the load model for the long-term prediction of power and energy demand. The second stage is represented by the two expansion models for generation and transmission. With the aid of these two models several expansion strategies are pre-selected, and then in the third stage, using the financial model, the total capital requirements are established. The future system demand is predicted from the analysis of historical data and by the formulation of the electricity - and economic growth relationship: Two major calculations, linear programming optimisation and loss of load probability analysis, are used in the computer models which aid the policy makers in selecting the optimum size and mix of the generating plants and scheduling the operation and maintenance of the generating units. Transmission system analysis programs have been developed in such a way that they use a common power system data base which enables the planning engineers to store and maintain their power system data. The calculation routines include load flow, fault analysis, stability studies, single and three phase travelling. Waves, and power and high ii frequency transmission line parameters. The costing and financial models include the analysis of costs of all new expansion equipment, the costs of operation and maintenance of the generation units, transmission equipment and fuel, and the simulation of the financial environment and accounting processes. On the basis of experience gained so far, the author arrives at the conclusion that the modelling system presented is capable of providing a useful tool for planning the expansion of the South African electricity supply industry

An Evolutionary Computational Approach for the Problem of Unit Commitment and Economic Dispatch in Microgrids under Several Operation Modes

In the last decades, new types of generation technologies have emerged and have been gradually integrated into the existing power systems, moving their classical architectures to distributed systems. Despite the positive features associated to this paradigm, new problems arise such as coordination and uncertainty. In this framework, microgrids constitute an effective solution to deal with the coordination and operation of these distributed energy resources. This paper proposes a Genetic Algorithm (GA) to address the combined problem of Unit Commitment (UC) and Economic Dispatch (ED). With this end, a model of a microgrid is introduced together with all the control variables and physical constraints. To optimally operate the microgrid, three operation modes are introduced. The first two attend to optimize economical and environmental factors, while the last operation mode considers the errors induced by the uncertainties in the demand forecasting. Therefore, it achieves a robust design that guarantees the power supply for different confidence levels. Finally, the algorithm was applied to an example scenario to illustrate its performance. The achieved simulation results demonstrate the validity of the proposed approach.Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades TEC2016-80242-PMinisterio de Economía y Competitividad PCIN-2015-043Universidad de Sevilla Programa propio de I+D+

Forecasting tools and probabilistic scheduling approach incorporatins renewables uncertainty for the insular power systems industry

Nowadays, the paradigm shift in the electricity sector and the advent of the smart grid, along with the growing impositions of a gradual reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, pose numerous challenges related with the sustainable management of power systems. The insular power systems industry is heavily dependent on imported energy, namely fossil fuels, and also on seasonal tourism behavior, which strongly influences the local economy. In comparison with the mainland power system, the behavior of insular power systems is highly influenced by the stochastic nature of the renewable energy sources available. The insular electricity grid is particularly sensitive to power quality parameters, mainly to frequency and voltage deviations, and a greater integration of endogenous renewables potential in the power system may affect the overall reliability and security of energy supply, so singular care should be placed in all forecasting and system operation procedures. The goals of this thesis are focused on the development of new decision support tools, for the reliable forecasting of market prices and wind power, for the optimal economic dispatch and unit commitment considering renewable generation, and for the smart control of energy storage systems. The new methodologies developed are tested in real case studies, demonstrating their computational proficiency comparatively to the current state-of-the-art