Integrating remote sensing, GIS and dynamic models for landscape-level simulation of forest insect disturbance

Cellular automata (CA) is a powerful tool for modeling the evolution of macroscopic scale phenomena as it couples time, space, and variables together while remaining in a simplified form. However, such application has remained challenging in forest insect epidemics due to the highly dynamic nature of insect behavior. Recent advances in temporal trajectory-based image analysis offer an alternative way to obtain high-frequency model calibration data. In this study, we propose an insect-CA modeling framework that integrates cellular automata, remote sensing, and Geographic Information System to understand the insect ecological processes, and tested it with measured data of mountain pine beetle (MPB) in the Rocky Mountains. The overall accuracy of the predicted MPB mortality pattern in the test years ranged from 88% to 94%, which illuminates its effectiveness in modeling forest insect dynamics. We further conducted sensitivity analysis to examine responses of model performance to various parameter settings. In our case, the ensemble random forest algorithm outperforms the traditional linear regression in constructing the suitability surface. Small neighborhood size is more effective in simulating the MPB movement behavior, indicating that short-distance is the dominating dispersal mode of MPB. The introduction of a stochastic perturbation component did not improve the model performance after testing a broad range of randomness degree, reflecting a relative compact dispersal pattern rather than isolated outbreaks. We conclude that CA with remote sensing observation is useful for landscape insect movement analyses;however, consideration of several key parameters is critical in the modeling process and should be more thoroughly investigated in future work

A Language-centered Approach to support environmental modeling with Cellular Automata

Die Anwendung von Methodiken und Technologien aus dem Bereich der Softwaretechnik auf den Bereich der Umweltmodellierung ist eine gemeinhin akzeptierte Vorgehensweise. Im Rahmen der "modellgetriebenen Entwicklung"(MDE, model-driven engineering) werden Technologien entwickelt, die darauf abzielen, Softwaresysteme vorwiegend auf Basis von im Vergleich zu Programmquelltexten relativ abstrakten Modellen zu entwickeln. Ein wesentlicher Bestandteil von MDE sind Techniken zur effizienten Entwicklung von "domänenspezifischen Sprachen"( DSL, domain-specific language), die auf Sprachmetamodellen beruhen. Die vorliegende Arbeit zeigt, wie modellgetriebene Entwicklung, und insbesondere die metamodellbasierte Beschreibung von DSLs, darüber hinaus Aspekte der Pragmatik unterstützen kann, deren Relevanz im erkenntnistheoretischen und kognitiven Hintergrund wissenschaftlichen Forschens begründet wird. Hierzu wird vor dem Hintergrund der Erkenntnisse des "modellbasierten Forschens"(model-based science und model-based reasoning) gezeigt, wie insbesondere durch Metamodelle beschriebene DSLs Möglichkeiten bieten, entsprechende pragmatische Aspekte besonders zu berücksichtigen, indem sie als Werkzeug zur Erkenntnisgewinnung aufgefasst werden. Dies ist v.a. im Kontext großer Unsicherheiten, wie sie für weite Teile der Umweltmodellierung charakterisierend sind, von grundsätzlicher Bedeutung. Die Formulierung eines sprachzentrierten Ansatzes (LCA, language-centered approach) für die Werkzeugunterstützung konkretisiert die genannten Aspekte und bildet die Basis für eine beispielhafte Implementierung eines Werkzeuges mit einer DSL für die Beschreibung von Zellulären Automaten (ZA) für die Umweltmodellierung. Anwendungsfälle belegen die Verwendbarkeit von ECAL und der entsprechenden metamodellbasierten Werkzeugimplementierung.The application of methods and technologies of software engineering to environmental modeling and simulation (EMS) is common, since both areas share basic issues of software development and digital simulation. Recent developments within the context of "Model-driven Engineering" (MDE) aim at supporting the development of software systems at the base of relatively abstract models as opposed to programming language code. A basic ingredient of MDE is the development of methods that allow the efficient development of "domain-specific languages" (DSL), in particular at the base of language metamodels. This thesis shows how MDE and language metamodeling in particular, may support pragmatic aspects that reflect epistemic and cognitive aspects of scientific investigations. For this, DSLs and language metamodeling in particular are set into the context of "model-based science" and "model-based reasoning". It is shown that the specific properties of metamodel-based DSLs may be used to support those properties, in particular transparency, which are of particular relevance against the background of uncertainty, that is a characterizing property of EMS. The findings are the base for the formulation of an corresponding specific metamodel- based approach for the provision of modeling tools for EMS (Language-centered Approach, LCA), which has been implemented (modeling tool ECA-EMS), including a new DSL for CA modeling for EMS (ECAL). At the base of this implementation, the applicability of this approach is shown

Doctor of Philosophy

dissertationWildfire is a common hazard in the western U.S. that can cause significant loss of life and property. When a fire approaches a community and becomes a threat to the residents, emergency managers need to take into account both fire behavior and the expected response of the threatened population to warnings before they issue protective action recommendations to the residents at risk. In wildfire evacuation practices, incident commanders use prominent geographic features (e.g., rivers, roads, and ridgelines) as trigger points, such that when a fire crosses a feature, the selected protective action recommendation will be issued to the residents at risk. This dissertation examines the dynamics of evacuation timing by coupling wildfire spread modeling, trigger modeling, reverse geocoding, and traffic simulation to model wildfire evacuation as a coupled human-environmental system. This dissertation is composed of three manuscripts. In the first manuscript, wildfire simulation and household-level trigger modeling are coupled to stage evacuation warnings. This work presents a bottom-up approach to constructing evacuation warning zones and is characterized by fine-grain, data-driven spatial modeling. The results in this work will help improve our understanding and representation of the spatiotemporal dynamics in wildfire evacuation timing and warnings. The second manuscript integrates trigger modeling and reverse geocoding to extract and select prominent geographic features along the boundary of a trigger buffer. A case study using a global gazetteer GeoNames demonstrates the potential value of the proposed method in facilitating communications in real-world evacuation practice. This work also sheds light on using reverse geocoding in other environmental modeling applications. The third manuscript explores the spatiotemporal dynamics behind evacuation timing by coupling fire and traffic simulation models. The proposed method sets wildfire evacuation triggers based on the estimated evacuation times using agent-based traffic simulation and could be potentially used in evacuation planning. In summary, this dissertation enriches existing trigger modeling approaches by coupling fire simulation, reverse geocoding, and traffic simulation. A framework for modeling wildfire evacuation as a coupled human-environmental system using triggers is proposed. Moreover, this dissertation also attempts to advocate and promote open science in wildfire evacuation modeling by using open data and software tools in different phases of modeling and simulation

Doctor of Philosophy

dissertationWildfire is a common hazard in the western U.S. that can cause significant loss of life and property. When a fire approaches a community and becomes a threat to the residents, emergency managers need to take into account both fire behavior and the expected response of the threatened population to warnings before they issue protective action recommendations to the residents at risk. In wildfire evacuation practices, incident commanders use prominent geographic features (e.g., rivers, roads, and ridgelines) as trigger points, such that when a fire crosses a feature, the selected protective action recommendation will be issued to the residents at risk. This dissertation examines the dynamics of evacuation timing by coupling wildfire spread modeling, trigger modeling, reverse geocoding, and traffic simulation to model wildfire evacuation as a coupled human-environmental system. This dissertation is composed of three manuscripts. In the first manuscript, wildfire simulation and household-level trigger modeling are coupled to stage evacuation warnings. This work presents a bottom-up approach to constructing evacuation warning zones and is characterized by fine-grain, data-driven spatial modeling. The results in this work will help improve our understanding and representation of the spatiotemporal dynamics in wildfire evacuation timing and warnings. The second manuscript integrates trigger modeling and reverse geocoding to extract and select prominent geographic features along the boundary of a trigger buffer. A case study using a global gazetteer GeoNames demonstrates the potential value of the proposed method in facilitating communications in real-world evacuation practice. This work also sheds light on using reverse geocoding in other environmental modeling applications. The third manuscript explores the spatiotemporal dynamics behind evacuation timing by coupling fire and traffic simulation models. The proposed method sets wildfire evacuation triggers based on the estimated evacuation times using agent-based traffic simulation and could be potentially used in evacuation planning. In summary, this dissertation enriches existing trigger modeling approaches by coupling fire simulation, reverse geocoding, and traffic simulation. A framework for modeling wildfire evacuation as a coupled human-environmental system using triggers is proposed. Moreover, this dissertation also attempts to advocate and promote open science in wildfire evacuation modeling by using open data and software tools in different phases of modeling and simulation

Simulation Software as a Service and Service-Oriented Simulation Experiment

Simulation software is being increasingly used in various domains for system analysis and/or behavior prediction. Traditionally, researchers and field experts need to have access to the computers that host the simulation software to do simulation experiments. With recent advances in cloud computing and Software as a Service (SaaS), a new paradigm is emerging where simulation software is used as services that are composed with others and dynamically influence each other for service-oriented simulation experiment on the Internet. The new service-oriented paradigm brings new research challenges in composing multiple simulation services in a meaningful and correct way for simulation experiments. To systematically support simulation software as a service (SimSaaS) and service-oriented simulation experiment, we propose a layered framework that includes five layers: an infrastructure layer, a simulation execution engine layer, a simulation service layer, a simulation experiment layer and finally a graphical user interface layer. Within this layered framework, we provide a specification for both simulation experiment and the involved individual simulation services. Such a formal specification is useful in order to support systematic compositions of simulation services as well as automatic deployment of composed services for carrying out simulation experiments. Built on this specification, we identify the issue of mismatch of time granularity and event granularity in composing simulation services at the pragmatic level, and develop four types of granularity handling agents to be associated with the couplings between services. The ultimate goal is to achieve standard and automated approaches for simulation service composition in the emerging service-oriented computing environment. Finally, to achieve more efficient service-oriented simulation, we develop a profile-based partitioning method that exploits a system’s dynamic behavior and uses it as a profile to guide the spatial partitioning for more efficient parallel simulation. We develop the work in this dissertation within the application context of wildfire spread simulation, and demonstrate the effectiveness of our work based on this application

A GIS-based fire spread simulator integrating a simplified physical wildland fire model and a wind field model

[EN]This article discusses the integration of two models, namely, the Physical Forest Fire Spread (PhFFS) and the High Definition Wind Model (HDWM), into a Geographical Information System-based interface. The resulting tool automates data acquisition, preprocesses spatial data, launches the aforementioned models and displays the corresponding results in a unique environment. Our implementation uses the Python language and Esri’s ArcPy library to extend the functionality of ArcMap 10.4. The PhFFS is a simplified 2D physical wildland fire spread model based on conservation equations, with convection and radiation as heat transfer mechanisms. It also includes some 3D effects. The HDWM arises from an asymptotic approximation of the Navier–Stokes equations, and provides a 3D wind velocity field in an air layer above the terrain surface. Both models can be run in standalone or coupled mode. Finally, the simulation of a real fire in Galicia (Spain) confirms that the tool developed is efficient and fully operational.Junta de Castilla y León; Fundación General de la Universidad de Salamanc

Monitoring and Cordoning Wildfires with an Autonomous Swarm of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

Unmanned aerial vehicles, or drones, are already an integral part of the equipment used by firefighters to monitor wildfires. They are, however, still typically used only as remotely operated, mobile sensing platforms under direct real-time control of a human pilot. Meanwhile, a substantial body of literature exists that emphasises the potential of autonomous drone swarms in various situational awareness missions, including in the context of environmental protection. In this paper, we present the results of a systematic investigation by means of numerical methods i.e., Monte Carlo simulation. We report our insights into the influence of key parameters such as fire propagation dynamics, surface area under observation and swarm size over the performance of an autonomous drone force operating without human supervision. We limit the use of drones to perform passive sensing operations with the goal to provide real-time situational awareness to the fire fighters on the ground. Therefore, the objective is defined as being able to locate, and then establish a continuous perimeter (cordon) around, a simulated fire event to provide live data feeds such as e.g., video or infra-red. Special emphasis was put on exclusively using simple, robust and realistically implementable distributed decision functions capable of supporting the self-organisation of the swarm in the pursuit of the collective goal. Our results confirm the presence of strong nonlinear effects in the interaction between the aforementioned parameters, which can be closely approximated using an empirical law. These findings could inform the mobilisation of adequate resources on a case-by-case basis, depending on known mission characteristics and acceptable odds (chances of success)

Distributed Particle Filters for Data Assimilation in Simulation of Large Scale Spatial Temporal Systems

Assimilating real time sensor into a running simulation model can improve simulation results for simulating large-scale spatial temporal systems such as wildfire, road traffic and flood. Particle filters are important methods to support data assimilation. While particle filters can work effectively with sophisticated simulation models, they have high computation cost due to the large number of particles needed in order to converge to the true system state. This is especially true for large-scale spatial temporal simulation systems that have high dimensional state space and high computation cost by themselves. To address the performance issue of particle filter-based data assimilation, this dissertation developed distributed particle filters and applied them to large-scale spatial temporal systems. We first implemented a particle filter-based data assimilation framework and carried out data assimilation to estimate system state and model parameters based on an application of wildfire spread simulation. We then developed advanced particle routing methods in distributed particle filters to route particles among the Processing Units (PUs) after resampling in effective and efficient manners. In particular, for distributed particle filters with centralized resampling, we developed two routing policies named minimal transfer particle routing policy and maximal balance particle routing policy. For distributed PF with decentralized resampling, we developed a hybrid particle routing approach that combines the global routing with the local routing to take advantage of both. The developed routing policies are evaluated from the aspects of communication cost and data assimilation accuracy based on the application of data assimilation for large-scale wildfire spread simulations. Moreover, as cloud computing is gaining more and more popularity; we developed a parallel and distributed particle filter based on Hadoop & MapReduce to support large-scale data assimilation

Cellular automata for population growth prediction: Tripoli-Libya case

This thesis was submitted for the award of Doctor of Philosophy and was awarded by Brunel University LondonDue to obstruction in the national plan of urbanization in Tripoli (Libya) and population growth, serious problems have emerged in the form of random settlements, overcrowding and poor infrastructure. After more than two decades of inertia, the government has created a national plan in order to resolve the problems, hence it has enforced the demolition of some zones and modified other (irregularly built) ones, however the process is extremely costly. This research introduces a solution through cellular automata (CA) model to predict growth trends; size of residential, industrial and utilities areas; and to project future population. The model is implemented using digitized land use maps of Tripoli to indicate each areas as group of cells to predict their growth. The model incorporates two types of fuzzy rules bases, the first of which is based on the inputs population and area, and the second of which is based on the three inputs of population, area and density. The population prediction is performed using three scenarios, namely decreasing, fixed and increasing growth rates, such that all possibilities of growth are covered. In addition, the residential area prediction is performed based on two cases: normal density and low density. The former is introduced since new areas tend to have more open spaces and bigger houses. Furthermore, the model considers the growth of the industrial areas to be slower than that of residential areas. The model is developed and validated for the period of 1980 to 2010. The prediction is performed for thirty years from 2010 to 2040. In addition to the CA model, a regression model is developed and tested on the three growth scenarios for the same period (30 years). The prediction results are very close for 2040 in terms of population. The model incorporates the introduction of public services areas that are distributed equally on the growth areas, which occupy about 15-20% of the total area. This model can help the government to develop areas in a proper way and controls the expansion to have well layout and planned of the city, improving people's standard of living sustainably, while protecting the environment with better planning