A wildland fire model with data assimilation

A wildfire model is formulated based on balance equations for energy and fuel, where the fuel loss due to combustion corresponds to the fuel reaction rate. The resulting coupled partial differential equations have coefficients that can be approximated from prior measurements of wildfires. An ensemble Kalman filter technique with regularization is then used to assimilate temperatures measured at selected points into running wildfire simulations. The assimilation technique is able to modify the simulations to track the measurements correctly even if the simulations were started with an erroneous ignition location that is quite far away from the correct one.Comment: 35 pages, 12 figures; minor revision January 2008. Original version available from http://www-math.cudenver.edu/ccm/report

A review of wildland fire spread modelling, 1990-present, 1: Physical and quasi-physical models

In recent years, advances in computational power and spatial data analysis (GIS, remote sensing, etc) have led to an increase in attempts to model the spread and behaviour of wildland fires across the landscape. This series of review papers endeavours to critically and comprehensively review all types of surface fire spread models developed since 1990. This paper reviews models of a physical or quasi-physical nature. These models are based on the fundamental chemistry and/or physics of combustion and fire spread. Other papers in the series review models of an empirical or quasi-empirical nature, and mathematical analogues and simulation models. Many models are extensions or refinements of models developed before 1990. Where this is the case, these models are also discussed but much less comprehensively.Comment: 31 pages + 8 pages references + 2 figures + 5 tables. Submitted to International Journal of Wildland Fir

On the need for a nonlinear subscale turbulence term in POD models as exemplified for a high Reynolds number flow over an Ahmed body

We investigate a hierarchy of eddy-viscosity terms in POD Galerkin models to account for a large fraction of unresolved fluctuation energy. These Galerkin methods are applied to Large Eddy Simulation data for a flow around the vehicle-like bluff body call Ahmed body. This flow has three challenges for any reduced-order model: a high Reynolds number, coherent structures with broadband frequency dynamics, and meta-stable asymmetric base flow states. The Galerkin models are found to be most accurate with modal eddy viscosities as proposed by Rempfer & Fasel (1994). Robustness of the model solution with respect to initial conditions, eddy viscosity values and model order is only achieved for state-dependent eddy viscosities as proposed by Noack, Morzynski & Tadmor (2011). Only the POD system with state-dependent modal eddy viscosities can address all challenges of the flow characteristics. All parameters are analytically derived from the Navier-Stokes based balance equations with the available data. We arrive at simple general guidelines for robust and accurate POD models which can be expected to hold for a large class of turbulent flows.Comment: Submitted to the Journal of Fluid Mechanic

Coupled atmosphere-wildland fire modeling with WRF-Fire

We describe the physical model, numerical algorithms, and software structure of WRF-Fire. WRF-Fire consists of a fire-spread model, implemented by the level-set method, coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting model. In every time step, the fire model inputs the surface wind, which drives the fire, and outputs the heat flux from the fire into the atmosphere, which in turn influences the atmosphere. The level-set method allows submesh representation of the burning region and flexible implementation of various ignition modes. WRF-Fire is distributed as a part of WRF and it uses the WRF parallel infrastructure for parallel computing.Comment: Version 3.3, 41 pages, 2 tables, 12 figures. As published in Discussions, under review for Geoscientific Model Developmen

Versatile Markovian models for networks with asymmetric TCP sources

In this paper we use Stochastic Petri Nets (SPNs) to study the interaction of multiple TCP sources that share one or two buffers, thereby considerably extending earlier work. We first consider two sources sharing a buffer and investigate the consequences of two popular assumptions for the loss process in terms of fairness and link utilization. The results obtained by our model are in agreement with existing analytic models or are closer to results obtained by ns-2 simulations. We then study a network consisting of three sources and two buffers and provide evidence that link sharing is approximately minimum-potential-delay-fair in case of equal round-trip times. \u