Statistical Inference for the Reliability Functions of a Family of Lifetime Distributions based on Progressive Type II Right Censoring

In this article, a general family of lifetime distributions is considered under progressive type II right censoring. The classical point estimation and testing procedures are developed for reliability function and stress-strength reliability. The uniformly minimum variance unbiased, maximum likelihood and invariantly optimal estimators are considered. Testing procedures are developed for the hypotheses related to scale parameter, reliability and stress-strength reliability functions. A Monte Carlo simulation study is performed for comparison of various estimators developed. Finally, the use of proposed estimators is shown in an illustrative example

Temperature effects on the static, dynamic and fatigue behaviour of composite materials used in wind turbine blades

Many Canadian regions have strong winds that are interesting for wind energy production. However, these same regions are often quite remote and the Canadian climate is atypical for the wind energy industry. The high level of uncertainty about the turbines durability and the profitability of wind plants under such environments thus hinders the development of wind energy projects in Canada. Among the many uncertainties related to Canadian operating conditions, one specific concern is about the durability of wind turbine blades in Northern climates. The goal of this thesis is thus to clarify the effects of temperature and strain rate on the strength, stiffness and fatigue performance of composite materials as used in the wind energy sector. It thus focuses on glass fibre reinforced composites, which is the mainstream material for wind turbine blades. Wind turbine blades are basically beam exposed to a combination of axial, bending (in and out of the rotor plane) and torsional loads. In order to resist these loads, laminates used in the different parts of the blade are mostly made of a combination of longitudinal and ±45◦ plies. In order to improve the basic understanding of the mechanics of failure, two simple laminate configurations are studied, namely: • The unidirectional laminate loaded in the fibre direction, which is the main load bearing component of the blade structure. • The [±45]s bias-ply laminate, which provides shear stiffness to the blades structure. The temperatures considered are limited to those that could realistically be encountered in Canada’s climate, namely an extreme wintertime low of -40℃ to a summertime high of 60℃, which is deemed representative of a part exposed to direct sunlight in the summer. Similarly, fatigue frequencies are limited to a maximum of 24 Hz. It was found that the static strength and stiffness of both laminate configurations were strongly affected by both low and high temperatures. A significant increase of both properties was measured at low temperature, while high temperature strongly degraded them. However, while the high temperature fatigue durability followed the same trend as the static strength, the low temperature fatigue performance was only slightly affected, and even less so for unidirectional laminates. Both a vertical shift and a change in slope of the S–N curve with temperature was observed. At low temperature, this change of slope favours the fatigue strength under a high fatigue load, but reduces expected lives at lower load levels. This finding may be particularly significant in the context of wind turbine blade durability since they generally need to operate at low fatigue stresses, but over very long periods. Frequency effects were mostly not significant within the range explored. Nevertheless, experiments suggest that higher frequencies may have a slightly deleterious effect. An approach to predict the effect of temperature on the probabilistic S–N curve of fibre dominated composites with minimal experimental requirements is also proposed. This method is based on a cyclic strength degradation model, for which the parameters change with temperature is correlated with temperature effect on static strength. Since the latter is also an input for the cyclic strength degradation model, a function describing its temperature dependence is also suggested. The predictions obtained by the model are very good for both strength and fatigue life. Finally, models are developed for describing the static strength as well as the storage and loss modulus as a function of temperature across multiple transitions. The latter model also has provision for evaluating frequency effects on the storage modulus and glass transition temperature. These models provide a very good description of the dynamic response of polymers and composites on which they were validated (epoxies and epoxy based composites). Moreover, they provide a unambiguous definition of the glass transition temperature and allows for the evaluation of temperature and frequency effects on both the storage modulus without using the time-temperature superposition principle. Results show that if the time-temperature shift factors are calculated from the model, they are continuous across the glass transition. This suggests that the commonly expected discontinuity in this region may actually only be a side effect of neglecting the glass transition frequency dependence in conventional time-temperature superposition approaches

Random Number Generators

The quasi-negative-binomial distribution was applied to queuing theory for determining the distribution of total number of customers served before the queue vanishes under certain assumptions. Some structural properties (probability generating function, convolution, mode and recurrence relation) for the moments of quasi-negative-binomial distribution are discussed. The distribution’s characterization and its relation with other distributions were investigated. A computer program was developed using R to obtain ML estimates and the distribution was fitted to some observed sets of data to test its goodness of fit

Reliability Abstracts and Technical Reviews January-December 1969

No abstract availabl

Attitudes towards old age and age of retirement across the world: findings from the future of retirement survey

The 21st century has been described as the first era in human history when the world will no longer be young and there will be drastic changes in many aspects of our lives including socio-demographics, financial and attitudes towards the old age and retirement. This talk will introduce briefly about the Global Ageing Survey (GLAS) 2004 and 2005 which is also popularly known as “The Future of Retirement”. These surveys provide us a unique data source collected in 21 countries and territories that allow researchers for better understanding the individual as well as societal changes as we age with regard to savings, retirement and healthcare. In 2004, approximately 10,000 people aged 18+ were surveyed in nine counties and one territory (Brazil, Canada, China, France, Hong Kong, India, Japan, Mexico, UK and USA). In 2005, the number was increased to twenty-one by adding Egypt, Germany, Indonesia, Malaysia, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Sweden, Turkey and South Korea). Moreover, an additional 6320 private sector employers was surveyed in 2005, some 300 in each country with a view to elucidating the attitudes of employers to issues relating to older workers. The paper aims to examine the attitudes towards the old age and retirement across the world and will indicate some policy implications