53,311 research outputs found
Early Warning Analysis for Social Diffusion Events
There is considerable interest in developing predictive capabilities for
social diffusion processes, for instance to permit early identification of
emerging contentious situations, rapid detection of disease outbreaks, or
accurate forecasting of the ultimate reach of potentially viral ideas or
behaviors. This paper proposes a new approach to this predictive analytics
problem, in which analysis of meso-scale network dynamics is leveraged to
generate useful predictions for complex social phenomena. We begin by deriving
a stochastic hybrid dynamical systems (S-HDS) model for diffusion processes
taking place over social networks with realistic topologies; this modeling
approach is inspired by recent work in biology demonstrating that S-HDS offer a
useful mathematical formalism with which to represent complex, multi-scale
biological network dynamics. We then perform formal stochastic reachability
analysis with this S-HDS model and conclude that the outcomes of social
diffusion processes may depend crucially upon the way the early dynamics of the
process interacts with the underlying network's community structure and
core-periphery structure. This theoretical finding provides the foundations for
developing a machine learning algorithm that enables accurate early warning
analysis for social diffusion events. The utility of the warning algorithm, and
the power of network-based predictive metrics, are demonstrated through an
empirical investigation of the propagation of political memes over social media
networks. Additionally, we illustrate the potential of the approach for
security informatics applications through case studies involving early warning
analysis of large-scale protests events and politically-motivated cyber
attacks
Predictive Analysis for Social Processes II: Predictability and Warning Analysis
This two-part paper presents a new approach to predictive analysis for social
processes. Part I identifies a class of social processes, called positive
externality processes, which are both important and difficult to predict, and
introduces a multi-scale, stochastic hybrid system modeling framework for these
systems. In Part II of the paper we develop a systems theory-based,
computationally tractable approach to predictive analysis for these systems.
Among other capabilities, this analytic methodology enables assessment of
process predictability, identification of measurables which have predictive
power, discovery of reliable early indicators for events of interest, and
robust, scalable prediction. The potential of the proposed approach is
illustrated through case studies involving online markets, social movements,
and protest behavior
Should Social Amplification of Risk Be Counteracted?
The importance of the conceptual statement, by Roger Kasperson et al., on social amplification of risk lies, firstly, in the identification of a phenome-non as one worth studying, instead of being irritated and frustrated ibout it and concerned only to get it out of the way. Accusations of “public hysteria ” and “ irresponsible media ” are commonplace, without any real attempt at understanding causes and mecha-nisms, let alone a closer look at the normative qualifications of “ hysteria ” and “irre~ponsibility”.~ Kasperson et al. provide a forceful summing up of the limitations of traditional, technical risk analysis, and propose to overcome the limitations by adding the phenomenon of public reactions to risk and further repercussions (“secondary impacts”). One may wonder whether this is sufficient; but it clearly is necessary. Secondly, the attempt at systematic description usefully articulates a number of dimensions and aspects of the problem. The added benefit is that, in doing so, some of the ambiguities become apparent-of the proposed analysis, but also of the way we tend to treat the phenomena of social amplification of risk. For example, although the phenomenon is defined in a neutral way, in the introduction and later when communications theory is invoked (“amplification denotes the process of intensifying or attenuating signals during the transmission of infor
Urban and river flooding: Comparison of flood risk management approaches in the UK and China and an assessment of future knowledge needs
Increased urbanisation, economic growth, and long-term climate variability have made both the UK and China more susceptible to urban and river flooding, putting people and property at increased risk. This paper presents a review of the current flooding challenges that are affecting the UK and China and the actions that each country is undertaking to tackle these problems. Particular emphases in this paper are laid on (1) learning from previous flooding events in the UK and China, and (2) which management methodologies are commonly used to reduce flood risk. The paper concludes with a strategic research plan suggested by the authors, together with proposed ways to overcome identified knowledge gaps in flood management. Recommendations briefly comprise the engagement of all stakeholders to ensure a proactive approach to land use planning, early warning systems, and water-sensitive urban design or redesign through more effective policy, multi-level flood models, and data driven models of water quantity and quality
Flooding through the lens of mobile phone activity
Natural disasters affect hundreds of millions of people worldwide every year.
Emergency response efforts depend upon the availability of timely information,
such as information concerning the movements of affected populations. The
analysis of aggregated and anonymized Call Detail Records (CDR) captured from
the mobile phone infrastructure provides new possibilities to characterize
human behavior during critical events. In this work, we investigate the
viability of using CDR data combined with other sources of information to
characterize the floods that occurred in Tabasco, Mexico in 2009. An impact map
has been reconstructed using Landsat-7 images to identify the floods. Within
this frame, the underlying communication activity signals in the CDR data have
been analyzed and compared against rainfall levels extracted from data of the
NASA-TRMM project. The variations in the number of active phones connected to
each cell tower reveal abnormal activity patterns in the most affected
locations during and after the floods that could be used as signatures of the
floods - both in terms of infrastructure impact assessment and population
information awareness. The representativeness of the analysis has been assessed
using census data and civil protection records. While a more extensive
validation is required, these early results suggest high potential in using
cell tower activity information to improve early warning and emergency
management mechanisms.Comment: Submitted to IEEE Global Humanitarian Technologies Conference (GHTC)
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