Modeling the impact of process variations in worst-case energy consumption estimation

The advent of autonomous power-limited systems poses a new challenge for system verification. Powerful processors needed to enable autonomous operation, are typically power-hungry, jeopardizing battery duration. Therefore, guaranteeing a given battery duration requires worst-case energy consumption (WCEC) estimation for tasks running on those systems. Unfortunately, processor energy and power can suffer significant variation across different units due to process variation (PV), i.e. variability in the electrical properties of transistors and wires due to imperfect manufacturing, which challenges existing WCEC estimation methods for applications. In this paper, we propose a statistical modeling approach to capture PV impact on applications energy and a methodology to compute their WCEC capturing PV, as required to deploy portable critical devices.This work has been partially supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO) under grant TIN2015-65316-P and the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement No. 772773). MINECO partially supported Jaume Abella under Ramon y Cajal fellowship RYC-2013-14717.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

pTNoC: Probabilistically time-analyzable tree-based NoC for mixed-criticality systems

The use of networks-on-chip (NoC) in real-time safety-critical multicore systems challenges deriving tight worst-case execution time (WCET) estimates. This is due to the complexities in tightly upper-bounding the contention in the access to the NoC among running tasks. Probabilistic Timing Analysis (PTA) is a powerful approach to derive WCET estimates on relatively complex processors. However, so far it has only been tested on small multicores comprising an on-chip bus as communication means, which intrinsically does not scale to high core counts. In this paper we propose pTNoC, a new tree-based NoC design compatible with PTA requirements and delivering scalability towards medium/large core counts. pTNoC provides tight WCET estimates by means of asymmetric bandwidth guarantees for mixed-criticality systems with negligible impact on average performance. Finally, our implementation results show the reduced area and power costs of the pTNoC.The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme [FP7/2007-2013] under the PROXIMA Project (www.proxima-project.eu), grant agreement no 611085. This work has also been partially supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation under grant TIN2015-65316-P and the HiPEAC Network of Excellence. Mladen Slijepcevic is funded by the Obra Social Fundación la Caixa under grant Doctorado “la Caixa” - Severo Ochoa. Carles Hern´andez is jointly funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO) and FEDER funds through grant TIN2014-60404-JIN. Jaume Abella has been partially supported by the MINECO under Ramon y Cajal postdoctoral fellowship number RYC-2013-14717.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Probabilistic Worst-Case Timing Analysis: Taxonomy and Comprehensive Survey

"© ACM, 2019. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of ACM for your personal use. Not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in ACM Computing Surveys, {VOL 52, ISS 1, (February 2019)} https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/3301283"[EN] The unabated increase in the complexity of the hardware and software components of modern embedded real-time systems has given momentum to a host of research in the use of probabilistic and statistical techniques for timing analysis. In the last few years, that front of investigation has yielded a body of scientific literature vast enough to warrant some comprehensive taxonomy of motivations, strategies of application, and directions of research. This survey addresses this very need, singling out the principal techniques in the state of the art of timing analysis that employ probabilistic reasoning at some level, building a taxonomy of them, discussing their relative merit and limitations, and the relations among them. In addition to offering a comprehensive foundation to savvy probabilistic timing analysis, this article also identifies the key challenges to be addressed to consolidate the scientific soundness and industrial viability of this emerging field.This work has also been partially supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation under grant TIN2015-65316-P, the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement No. 772773), and the HiPEAC Network of Excellence. Jaume Abella was partially supported by the Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness under a Ramon y Cajal postdoctoral fellowship (RYC-2013-14717). Enrico Mezzetti has been partially supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness under Juan de la Cierva-Incorporación postdoctoral fellowship No. IJCI-2016-27396.Cazorla, FJ.; Kosmidis, L.; Mezzetti, E.; Hernández Luz, C.; Abella, J.; Vardanega, T. (2019). Probabilistic Worst-Case Timing Analysis: Taxonomy and Comprehensive Survey. ACM Computing Surveys. 52(1):1-35. https://doi.org/10.1145/3301283S13552

Boosting Guaranteed Performance in Wormhole NoCs with Probabilistic Timing Analysis

Wormhole-based NoCs (wNoCs) are widely accepted in high-performance domains as the most appropriate solution to interconnect an increasing number of cores in the chip. However, wNoCs suitability in the context of critical real-time applications has not been demonstrated yet. In this paper, in the context of probabilistic timing analysis (PTA), we propose a PTA-compatible wNoC design that provides tight time-composable contention bounds. The proposed wNoC design builds on PTA ability to reason in probabilistic terms about hardware events impacting execution time (e.g. wNoC contention), discarding those sequences of events occurring with a negligible low probability. This allows our wNoC design to deliver improved guaranteed performance. ur results show that WCET estimates of applications running on top of probabilistic wNoCs are reduced by 40% and 75% on average for 4x4 and 6x6 wNoC setups respectively when compared against deterministic wNoCs.This work has also been partially supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation under grant TIN2015-65316-P and the HiPEAC Network of Excellence. Mladen Slijepcevic is funded by the Obra Social Fundación la Caixa under grant Doctorado “la Caixa” - Severo Ochoa. Carles Hernández is jointly funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO) and FEDER funds through grant TIN2014-60404-JIN. Jaume Abella has been partially supported by the MINECO under Ramon y Cajal postdoctoral fellowship number RYC-2013-14717.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Time-Randomized Wormhole NoCs for Critical Applications

Wormhole-based NoCs (wNoCs) are widely accepted in high-performance domains as the most appropriate solution to interconnect an increasing number of cores in the chip. However, wNoCs suitability in the context of critical real-time applications has not been demonstrated yet. In this article, in the context of probabilistic timing analysis (PTA), we propose a PTA-compatible wNoC design that provides tight time-composable contention bounds. The proposed wNoC design builds on PTA ability to reason in probabilistic terms about hardware events impacting execution time (e.g., wNoC contention), discarding those sequences of events occurring with a negligible low probability. This allows our wNoC design to deliver improved guaranteed performance w.r.t. conventional time-deterministic setups. Our results show that performance guarantees of applications running on top of probabilistic wNoC designs improve by 40% and 93% on average for 4 × 4 and 6 × 6 wNoC setups, respectively.The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme [FP7/2007-2013] under the PROXIMA Project (www.proxima-project.eu), grant agreement no 611085. This work has also been partially supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation under grant TIN2015-65316-P and the HiPEAC Network of Excellence. Mladen Slijepcevic is funded by the Obra Social Fundación la Caixa under grant Doctorado \la Caixa" - Severo Ochoa. Carles Hernández is jointly funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO) and FEDER funds through grant TIN2014-60404-JIN. Jaume Abella has been partially supported by the MINECO under Ramon y Cajal postdoctoral fellowship number RYC-2013-14717.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Measurement-Based Worst-Case Execution Time Estimation Using the Coefficient of Variation

Extreme Value Theory (EVT) has been historically used in domains such as finance and hydrology to model worst-case events (e.g., major stock market incidences). EVT takes as input a sample of the distribution of the variable to model and fits the tail of that sample to either the Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) or the Generalised Pareto Distribution (GPD). Recently, EVT has become popular in real-time systems to derive worst-case execution time (WCET) estimates of programs. However, the application of EVT is not straightforward and requires a detailed analysis of, and customisation for, the particular problem at hand. In this article, we tailor the application of EVT to timing analysis. To that end, (1) we analyse the response time of different hardware resources (e.g., cache memories) and identify those that may lead to radically different types of execution time distributions. (2) We show that one of these distributions, known as mixture distribution, causes problems in the use of EVT. In particular, mixture distributions challenge not only properly selecting GEV/GPD parameters (i.e., location, scale and shape) but also determining the size of the sample to ensure that enough tail values are passed to EVT and that only tail values are used by EVT to fit GEV/GPD. Failing to select these parameters has a negative impact on the quality of the derived WCET estimates. We tackle these problems, by (3) proposing Measurement-Based Probabilistic Timing Analysis using the Coefficient of Variation (MBPTA-CV), a new mixture-distribution aware, WCET-suited MBPTA method that builds on recent EVT developments in other fields (e.g., finance) to automatically select the distribution parameters that best fit the maxima of the observed execution times. Our results on a simulation environment and a real board show that MBPTA-CV produces high-quality WCET estimates.The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community’s FP7 [FP7/2007- 2013] under the PROXIMA Project (www.proxima-project.eu), grant 611085. This work has also been par- tially supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation under grant TIN2015-65316-P and the HiPEAC Network of Excellence. Jaume Abella was partially supported by the Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness under Ramon y Cajal postdoctoral fellowship RYC-2013-14717.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Using Markov’s inequality with power-of-k function for probabilistic WCET estimation

Deriving WCET estimates for software programs with probabilistic means (a.k.a. pWCET estimation) has received significant attention during last years as a way to deal with the increased complexity of the processors used in real-time systems. Many works build on Extreme Value Theory (EVT) that is fed with a sample of the collected data (execution times). In its application, EVT carries two sources of uncertainty: the first one that is intrinsic to the EVT model and relates to determining the subset of the sample that belongs to the (upper) tail, and hence, is actually used by EVT for prediction; and the second one that is induced by the sampling process and hence is inherent to all sample-based methods. In this work, we show that Markov’s inequality can be used to obtain provable trustworthy probabilistic bounds to the tail of a distribution without incurring any model-intrinsic uncertainty. Yet, it produces pessimistic estimates that we shave substantially by proposing the use of a power-of-k function instead of the default identity function used by Markov’s inequality. Lastly, we propose a method to deal with sampling uncertainty for Markov’s inequality that consistently improves EVT estimates on synthetic and real data obtained from a railway application.This work has been partially supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO) under grant PID2019-110854RB-I00 / AEI / 10.13039/501100011033 and the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement No. 772773).Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Modelling travellers’ risky choice behaviour in revealed preference contexts: A comparison of EUT and non-EUT approaches

Recent work on risky choice modelling has sought to address the theoretical shortcomings of expected utility theory (EUT) by using non-expected utility theoretic (non-EUT) approaches. To date, however, there is little evidence to show whether the complexity of non-EUT actually leads to better model performance. Moreover, almost all the relevant research has adopted stated choice data which, although flexible and cheap, has limited validity. This thesis empirically investigates the feasibility and validity of non-EUT approaches in revealed preference (RP) contexts, in which travel time distribution is extracted from historical travel time data to subsequently present systematic comparisons between EUT and non-EUT approaches. Additionally, this thesis also discusses implementations based on these empirical results and, in particular, highlights the influence of non-EUT on the valuation of travel time savings. A risky choice framework is proposed so as to incorporate non-EUT into a Random Utility Maximization structure. The non-EUT approaches modelled in the thesis consist of Subjective Expected Value Theory, Subjective Expected Utility Theory, Weighted Utility theory, Rank Dependent Expected Value, Rank Dependent Expected Utility, Prospect Theory, and Cumulative Prospect Theory. The first dataset is collected from the SR91 corridor in California and involves a choice between a free flowing and reliable tolled facility and a congested and unreliable un-tolled facility. The second case study is based on the London Underground (LU) system and involves the choice between alternative competitive underground services linking pairs of stations. This thesis provides insights into how EUT and non-EUT models perform in the real world. The RP methodology and risky choice framework offers an avenue for future research to identify a wider range of alternative choice theories using realistic data. The empirical results suggest that there are merits in applying non-EUT to the modelling of travellers’ risky choice behaviours.Open Acces

Timing of autonomous driving software: problem analysis and prospects for future solutions

The software used to implement advanced functionalities in critical domains (e.g. autonomous operation) impairs software timing. This is not only due to the complexity of the underlying high-performance hardware deployed to provide the required levels of computing performance, but also due to the complexity, non-deterministic nature, and huge input space of the artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms used. In this paper, we focus on Apollo, an industrial-quality Autonomous Driving (AD) software framework: we statistically characterize its observed execution time variability and reason on the sources behind it. We discuss the main challenges and limitations in finding a satisfactory software timing analysis solution for Apollo and also show the main traits for the acceptability of statistical timing analysis techniques as a feasible path. While providing a consolidated solution for the software timing analysis of Apollo is a huge effort far beyond the scope of a single research paper, our work aims to set the basis for future and more elaborated techniques for the timing analysis of AD software.This work has been partially supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO) under grant TIN2015-65316-P, the SuPerCom European Research Council (ERC) project under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement No.772773), and the HiPEAC Network of Excellence. MINECO partially supported Enrico Mezzetti under Juan de la Cierva-Incorporación postdoctoral fellowship (IJCI-2016-27396), and Leonidas Kosmidis under Juan de la Cierva-Formación postdoctoral fellowship (FJCI-2017-34095).Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft