An ACO-Inspired, Probabilistic, Greedy Approach to the Drone Traveling Salesman Problem

In recent years, major companies have done research on using drones for parcel delivery. Research has shown that this can result in significant savings, which has led to the formulation of various truck and drone routing and scheduling optimization problems. This paper explains and analyzes a new approach to the Drone Traveling Salesman Problem (DTSP) based on ant colony optimization (ACO). The ACO-based approach has an acceptance policy that maximizes the usage of the drone. The results reveal that the pheromone causes the algorithm to converge quickly to the best solution. The algorithm performs comparably to the MIP model, CP model, and EA of Rich & Ham (2018), especially in instances with a larger number of stops

The path inference filter: model-based low-latency map matching of probe vehicle data

We consider the problem of reconstructing vehicle trajectories from sparse sequences of GPS points, for which the sampling interval is between 10 seconds and 2 minutes. We introduce a new class of algorithms, called altogether path inference filter (PIF), that maps GPS data in real time, for a variety of trade-offs and scenarios, and with a high throughput. Numerous prior approaches in map-matching can be shown to be special cases of the path inference filter presented in this article. We present an efficient procedure for automatically training the filter on new data, with or without ground truth observations. The framework is evaluated on a large San Francisco taxi dataset and is shown to improve upon the current state of the art. This filter also provides insights about driving patterns of drivers. The path inference filter has been deployed at an industrial scale inside the Mobile Millennium traffic information system, and is used to map fleets of data in San Francisco, Sacramento, Stockholm and Porto.Comment: Preprint, 23 pages and 23 figure

Three New Probabilistic Models for Dependency Parsing: An Exploration

After presenting a novel O(n^3) parsing algorithm for dependency grammar, we develop three contrasting ways to stochasticize it. We propose (a) a lexical affinity model where words struggle to modify each other, (b) a sense tagging model where words fluctuate randomly in their selectional preferences, and (c) a generative model where the speaker fleshes out each word's syntactic and conceptual structure without regard to the implications for the hearer. We also give preliminary empirical results from evaluating the three models' parsing performance on annotated Wall Street Journal training text (derived from the Penn Treebank). In these results, the generative (i.e., top-down) model performs significantly better than the others, and does about equally well at assigning part-of-speech tags.Comment: 6 pages, LaTeX 2.09 packaged with 4 .eps files, also uses colap.sty and acl.bs

Bayesian learning of models for estimating uncertainty in alert systems: application to air traffic conflict avoidance

Alert systems detect critical events which can happen in the short term. Uncertainties in data and in the models used for detection cause alert errors. In the case of air traffic control systems such as Short-Term Conflict Alert (STCA), uncertainty increases errors in alerts of separation loss. Statistical methods that are based on analytical assumptions can provide biased estimates of uncertainties. More accurate analysis can be achieved by using Bayesian Model Averaging, which provides estimates of the posterior probability distribution of a prediction. We propose a new approach to estimate the prediction uncertainty, which is based on observations that the uncertainty can be quantified by variance of predicted outcomes. In our approach, predictions for which variances of posterior probabilities are above a given threshold are assigned to be uncertain. To verify our approach we calculate a probability of alert based on the extrapolation of closest point of approach. Using Heathrow airport flight data we found that alerts are often generated under different conditions, variations in which lead to alert detection errors. Achieving 82.1% accuracy of modelling the STCA system, which is a necessary condition for evaluating the uncertainty in prediction, we found that the proposed method is capable of reducing the uncertain component. Comparison with a bootstrap aggregation method has demonstrated a significant reduction of uncertainty in predictions. Realistic estimates of uncertainties will open up new approaches to improving the performance of alert systems

If P, Then P!

The Identity principle says that conditionals with the form 'If p, then p' are logical truths. Identity is overwhelmingly plausible, and has rarely been explicitly challenged. But a wide range of conditionals nonetheless invalidate it. I explain the problem, and argue that the culprit is the principle known as Import-Export, which we must thus reject. I then explore how we can reject Import-Export in a way that still makes sense of the intuitions that support it, arguing that the differences between indicative and subjunctive conditionals play a key role in solving this puzzle

Distributed PCP Theorems for Hardness of Approximation in P

We present a new distributed model of probabilistically checkable proofs (PCP). A satisfying assignment $x \in \{0,1\}^n$ to a CNF formula $\varphi$ is shared between two parties, where Alice knows $x_1, \dots, x_{n/2}$, Bob knows $x_{n/2+1},\dots,x_n$, and both parties know $\varphi$. The goal is to have Alice and Bob jointly write a PCP that $x$ satisfies $\varphi$, while exchanging little or no information. Unfortunately, this model as-is does not allow for nontrivial query complexity. Instead, we focus on a non-deterministic variant, where the players are helped by Merlin, a third party who knows all of $x$. Using our framework, we obtain, for the first time, PCP-like reductions from the Strong Exponential Time Hypothesis (SETH) to approximation problems in P. In particular, under SETH we show that there are no truly-subquadratic approximation algorithms for Bichromatic Maximum Inner Product over {0,1}-vectors, Bichromatic LCS Closest Pair over permutations, Approximate Regular Expression Matching, and Diameter in Product Metric. All our inapproximability factors are nearly-tight. In particular, for the first two problems we obtain nearly-polynomial factors of $2^{(\log n)^{1-o(1)}}$; only $(1+o(1))$-factor lower bounds (under SETH) were known before