Characterizing degradation gradients through land cover change analysis in rural Eastern Cape, South Africa

CITATION: Munch, Z., et al. 2017. Characterizing degradation gradients through land cover change analysis in rural Eastern Cape, South Africa. Geosciences, 7(1):7, doi:10.3390/geosciences7010007.The original publication is available at http://www.mdpi.comLand cover change analysis was performed for three catchments in the rural Eastern Cape, South Africa, for two time steps (2000 and 2014), to characterize landscape conversion trajectories for sustained landscape health. Land cover maps were derived: (1) from existing data (2000); and (2) through object-based image analysis (2014) of Landsat 8 imagery. Land cover change analysis was facilitated using land cover labels developed to identify landscape change trajectories. Land cover labels assigned to each intersection of the land cover maps at the two time steps provide a thematic representation of the spatial distribution of change. While land use patterns are characterized by high persistence (77%), the expansion of urban areas and agriculture has occurred predominantly at the expense of grassland. The persistence and intensification of natural or invaded wooded areas were identified as a degradation gradient within the landscape, which amounted to almost 10% of the study area. The challenge remains to determine significant signals in the landscape that are not artefacts of error in the underlying input data or scale of analysis. Systematic change analysis and accurate uncertainty reporting can potentially address these issues to produce authentic output for further modelling.http://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/7/1/7Publisher's versio

Time tracking of different cropping patterns using Landsat images under different agricultural systems during 1990-2050 in Cold China

Rapid cropland reclamation is underway in Cold China in response to increases in food demand, while the lack analyses of time series cropping pattern mappings limits our understanding of the acute transformation process of cropland structure and associated environmental effects. The Cold China contains different agricultural systems (state and private farming), and such systems could lead to different cropping patterns. So far, such changes have not been revealed yet. Based on the Landsat images, this study tracked cropping information in five-year increments (1990-1995, 1995-2000, 2000-2005, 2005-2010, and 2010-2015) and predicted future patterns for the period of 2020-2050 under different agricultural systems using developed method for determining cropland patterns. The following results were obtained: The available time series of Landsat images in Cold China met the requirements for long-term cropping pattern studies, and the developed method exhibited high accuracy (over 91%) and obtained precise spatial information. A new satellite evidence was observed that cropping patterns significantly differed between the two farm types, with paddy field in state farming expanding at a faster rate (from 2.66 to 68.56%) than those in private farming (from 10.12 to 34.98%). More than 70% of paddy expansion was attributed to the transformation of upland crop in each period at the pixel level, which led to a greater loss of upland crop in state farming than private farming (9505.66 km(2) vs. 2840.29 km(2)) during 1990-2015. Rapid cropland reclamation is projected to stagnate in 2020, while paddy expansion will continue until 2040 primarily in private farming in Cold China. This study provides new evidence for different land use change pattern mechanisms between different agricultural systems, and the results have significant implications for understanding and guiding agricultural system development

Projection of land surface temperature considering the effects of future land change in the Taihu Lake Basin of China

Land surface temperature (LST) is an important environmental parameter that is significantly affected by land use and landscape composition. Despite the recent progress in LST retrieval algorithms and better knowledge of the relationship between LST and land coverage indices, predictive studies of future LST patterns are limited. Here, we project LST patterns in the Taihu Lake Basin to the year 2026 based on projected land use pattern and simulated land coverage indices that include normalized difference built-up index (NDBI), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and normalized difference water index (NDWI). We derived the spatiotemporal LST patterns in the Taihu Lake Basin from 1996 to 2026 using thermal infrared data from Landsat imagery. A CA-Markov model was applied to project the 2026 land use pattern in the basin based on spatial driving factors, using the 2004 land use as the initial state. We simulated the NDBI, NDVI and NDWI indices for 2026 using the projected land use patterns, and then generated the 2026 LST in the study area. Our results showed that LST has been increasing and the warming areas have been expanding since 1996, especially in the Su-Xi-Chang urban agglomeration. The mean LST in Su-Xi-Chang has increased from 31 degrees C in 2004 and has risen to about 33 degrees C in 2016, and the projection suggests that LST will reach about 35 degrees C in 2026. Our results also suggest that mean LST increased by 2 degrees C per decade in this highly urbanized area between 1996 and 2026. We present a preliminary method to produce future LST patterns and provide reasonable LST scenarios in the Taihu Lake Basin, which should help develop and implement management strategies for mitigating the effects of urban heat island

中国における都市化総合評価及び環境への影響に関する研究

In Chapter one, research background and significance is investigated. In addition, previous studies and current situation in the research fields was reviewed and discussed. In Chapter two, an in-depth review of prior studies associated with the research topic was conducted. The literature review was carried out from three aspects: urbanization and eco-environment evalution and coordination, urban sprawl assessment and urban heat island investigation. In Chapter three, maximum entropy method was applied to help generate the evaluation system of eco-environment level and urbanization level at provincial scale. Comparison analysis and coordinate analysis was carried through to assess the development of urbanization and eco-environment as well as the balance and health degree of the city develops. In Chapter four, DMSP/OLS stable nighttime light dataset was used to measure and assess the urban dynamics from the extraction of built up area. Urban sprawl was evaluated by analyzing the landscape metrics which provided general understanding of the urban sprawl and distribution pattern characteristics could be got from the evaluation. In Chapter five, the investigation of surface urban heat island effects in Beijing city which derive from land surface temperature retrieval from remote sensing data of Landsat TM was carried out. In addition, spatial correlation and relationship between the urbanization level, vegetation coverage and surface urban heat island was carried out in this chapter. In Chapter six, all the works have been summarized and a conclusion of whole thesis is deduced.北九州市立大

Mapping infiltration in an urbanizing mixed-land-use watershed with multi-temporal satellite imagery

Digital soil mapping (DSM) is a field of soil science that aims to improve traditional soil maps by producing higher resolution predictive maps of soil properties using spatial environmental data. DSM has historically relied primarily on static environmental covariates—such as slope gradient, slope aspect, and other topographic variables derived from digital terrain models—for predicting static soil properties, like soil texture. Advancements in satellite imagery and statistical modeling improve the accuracy of digital soil maps by incorporating multi-temporal data that can capture landscape-scale change over relatively short periods of time. Adding these dynamic environmental covariates may be especially useful for spatial prediction of dynamic soil properties, like infiltration rate, that are strongly affected by phenomenon that satellite imagery can detect, like land use that changes rapidly due to human activity. Infiltration strongly impacts soil health and hydrologic characteristics in a watershed. Understanding infiltration for sustainable land management is vital for making best management decisions in urbanizing environments like the West Run Watershed in Morgantown, West Virginia. We hypothesized that infiltration could be predicted at a higher accuracy and a finer spatiotemporal scale using digital soil mapping techniques than is currently provided by the current official soil data and maps produced by the National Cooperative Soil Survey. Spatial predictions of infiltration rate were produced for the West Run watershed using both static and dynamic environmental covariates as inputs into multiple linear regression (MLR) and random forest (RF) models, each of which were made using 10-fold cross validation. Training and independent validation sampling locations were selected using a conditioned Latin hypercube sampling scheme and observed saturated hydraulic conductivity of the soil surface was collected using automated dual-head infiltrometers. The MLR and RF models had R 2 of 0.302 and 0.201, respectively. Validation sampling was stratified by the predicted infiltration values of the MLR model. Validation R 2 values for the MLR and RF models were 0.080 and 0.103. The results from this study will benefit the development of a dynamic soil survey and will improve hydrologic models in this and potentially other mixed-land-use watersheds

Linking thermal variability and change to urban growth in Harare Metropolitan City using remotely sensed data.

Doctor of Philosophy in Environmental Science. University of KwaZulu-Natal. Pietermaritzburg, 2017.Urban growth, which involves Land Use and Land Cover Changes (LULCC), alters land surface thermal properties. Within the framework of rapid urban growth and global warming, land surface temperature (LST) and its elevation have potential significant socio-economic and environmental implications. Hence the main objectives of this study were to (i) map urban growth, (ii) link urban growth with indoor and outdoor thermal conditions and (iii) estimate implications of thermal trends on household energy consumption as well as predict future urban growth and temperature patterns in Harare Metropolitan, Zimbabwe. To achieve these objectives, broadband multi-spectral Landsat 5, 7 and 8, in-situ LULC observations, air temperature (Ta) and humidity data were integrated. LULC maps were obtained from multi-spectral remote sensing data and derived indices using the Support Vector Machine Algorithm, while LST were derived by applying single channel and split window algorithms. To improve remote sensing based urban growth mapping, a method of combining multi-spectral reflective data with thermal data and vegetation indices was tested. Vegetation indices were also combined with socio-demographic data to map the spatial distribution of heat vulnerability in Harare. Changes in outdoor human thermal discomfort in response to seasonal LULCC were evaluated, using the Discomfort Index (DI) derived parsimoniously from LST retrieved from Landsat 8 data. Responses of LST to long term urban growth were analysed for the period from 1984 to 2015. The implications of urban growth induced temperature changes on household air-conditioning energy demand were analysed using Landsat derived land surface temperature based Degree Days. Finally, the Cellular Automata Markov Chain (CAMC) analysis was used to predict future landscape transformation at 10-year time steps from 2015 to 2045. Results showed high overall accuracy of 89.33% and kappa index above 0.86 obtained, using Landsat 8 bands and indices. Similar results were observed when indices were used as stand-alone dataset (above 80%). Landsat 8 derived bio-physical surface properties and socio-demographic factors, showed that heat vulnerability was high in over 40% in densely built-up areas with low-income when compared to “leafy” suburbs. A strong spatial correlation (α = 0.61) between heat vulnerability and surface temperatures in the hot season was obtained, implying that LST is a good indicator of heat vulnerability in the area. LST based discomfort assessment approach retrieved DI with high accuracy as indicated by mean percentage error of less than 20% for each sub-season. Outdoor thermal discomfort was high in hot dry season (mean DI of 31oC), while the post rainy season was the most comfortable (mean DI of 19.9oC). During the hot season, thermal discomfort was very low in low density residential areas, which are characterised by forests and well maintained parks (DI ≤27oC). Long term changes results showed that high density residential areas increased by 92% between 1984 and 2016 at the expense of cooler green-spaces, which decreased by 75.5%, translating to a 1.98oC mean surface temperature increase. Due to surface alterations from urban growth between 1984 and 2015, LST increased by an average of 2.26oC and 4.10oC in the cool and hot season, respectively. This decreased potential indoor heating energy needed in the cool season by 1 degree day and increased indoor cooling energy during the hot season by 3 degree days. Spatial analysis showed that during the hot season, actual energy consumption was low in high temperature zones. This coincided with areas occupied by low income strata indicating that they do not afford as much energy and air conditioning facilities as expected. Besides quantifying and strongly relating with energy requirement, degree days provided a quantitative measure of heat vulnerability in Harare. Testing vegetation indices for predictive power showed that the Urban Index (UI) was comparatively the best predictor of future urban surface temperature (r = 0.98). The mean absolute percentage error of the UI derived temperature was 5.27% when tested against temperature derived from thermal band in October 2015. Using UI as predictor variable in CAMC analysis, we predicted that the low surface temperature class (18-28oC) will decrease in coverage, while the high temperature category (36-45oC) will increase in proportion covered from 42.5 to 58% of city, indicating further warming as the city continues to grow between 2015 and 2040. Overall, the findings of this study showed that LST, human thermal comfort and air-conditioning energy demand are strongly affected by seasonal and urban growth induced land cover changes. It can be observed that urban greenery and wetlands play a significant role of reducing LST and heat transfer between the surface and lower atmosphere and LST may continue unless effective mitigation strategies, such as effective vegetation cover spatial configuration are adopted. Limitations to the study included inadequate spatial and low temporal resolution of Landsat data, few in-situ observations of temperature and LULC classification which was area specific thus difficult for global comparison. Recommendations for future studies included data merging to improve spatial and temporal representation of remote sensing data, resource mobilization to increase urban weather station density and image classification into local climate zones which are of easy global interpretation and comparison

Utilizing the Landsat spectral-temporal domain for improved mapping and monitoring of ecosystem state and dynamics

Just as the carbon dioxide observations that form the Keeling curve revolutionized the study of the global carbon cycle, free and open access to all available Landsat imagery is fundamentally changing how the Landsat record is being used to study ecosystems and ecological dynamics. This dissertation advances the use of Landsat time series for visualization, classification, and detection of changes in terrestrial ecological processes. More specifically, it includes new examples of how complex ecological patterns manifest in time series of Landsat observations, as well as novel approaches for detecting and quantifying these patterns. Exploration of the complexity of spectral-temporal patterns in the Landsat record reveals both seasonal variability and longer-term trajectories difficult to characterize using conventional bi-temporal or even annual observations. These examples provide empirical evidence of hypothetical ecosystem response functions proposed by Kennedy et al. (2014). Quantifying observed seasonal and phenological differences in the spectral reflectance of Massachusetts’ forest communities by combining existing harmonic curve fitting and phenology detection algorithms produces stable feature sets that consistently out-performed more traditional approaches for detailed forest type classification. This study addresses the current lack of species-level forest data at Landsat resolutions, demonstrating the advantages of spectral-temporal features as classification inputs. Development of a targeted change detection method using transformations of time series data improves spatial and temporal information on the occurrence of flood events in landscapes actively modified by recovering North American beaver (Castor canadensis) populations. These results indicate the utility of the Landsat record for the study of species-habitat relationships, even in complex wetland environments. Overall, this dissertation confirms the value of the Landsat archive as a continuous record of terrestrial ecosystem state and dynamics. Given the global coverage of remote sensing datasets, the time series visualization and analysis approaches presented here can be extended to other areas. These approaches will also be improved by more frequent collection of moderate resolution imagery, as planned by the Landsat and Sentinel-2 programs. In the modern era of global environmental change, use of the Landsat spectral-temporal domain presents new and exciting opportunities for the long-term large-scale study of ecosystem extent, composition, condition, and change

Assessing the role of EO in biodiversity monitoring: options for integrating in-situ observations with EO within the context of the EBONE concept

The European Biodiversity Observation Network (EBONE) is a European contribution on terrestrial monitoring to GEO BON, the Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network. EBONE’s aims are to develop a system of biodiversity observation at regional, national and European levels by assessing existing approaches in terms of their validity and applicability starting in Europe, then expanding to regions in Africa. The objective of EBONE is to deliver: 1. A sound scientific basis for the production of statistical estimates of stock and change of key indicators; 2. The development of a system for estimating past changes and forecasting and testing policy options and management strategies for threatened ecosystems and species; 3. A proposal for a cost-effective biodiversity monitoring system. There is a consensus that Earth Observation (EO) has a role to play in monitoring biodiversity. With its capacity to observe detailed spatial patterns and variability across large areas at regular intervals, our instinct suggests that EO could deliver the type of spatial and temporal coverage that is beyond reach with in-situ efforts. Furthermore, when considering the emerging networks of in-situ observations, the prospect of enhancing the quality of the information whilst reducing cost through integration is compelling. This report gives a realistic assessment of the role of EO in biodiversity monitoring and the options for integrating in-situ observations with EO within the context of the EBONE concept (cfr. EBONE-ID1.4). The assessment is mainly based on a set of targeted pilot studies. Building on this assessment, the report then presents a series of recommendations on the best options for using EO in an effective, consistent and sustainable biodiversity monitoring scheme. The issues that we faced were many: 1. Integration can be interpreted in different ways. One possible interpretation is: the combined use of independent data sets to deliver a different but improved data set; another is: the use of one data set to complement another dataset. 2. The targeted improvement will vary with stakeholder group: some will seek for more efficiency, others for more reliable estimates (accuracy and/or precision); others for more detail in space and/or time or more of everything. 3. Integration requires a link between the datasets (EO and in-situ). The strength of the link between reflected electromagnetic radiation and the habitats and their biodiversity observed in-situ is function of many variables, for example: the spatial scale of the observations; timing of the observations; the adopted nomenclature for classification; the complexity of the landscape in terms of composition, spatial structure and the physical environment; the habitat and land cover types under consideration. 4. The type of the EO data available varies (function of e.g. budget, size and location of region, cloudiness, national and/or international investment in airborne campaigns or space technology) which determines its capability to deliver the required output. EO and in-situ could be combined in different ways, depending on the type of integration we wanted to achieve and the targeted improvement. We aimed for an improvement in accuracy (i.e. the reduction in error of our indicator estimate calculated for an environmental zone). Furthermore, EO would also provide the spatial patterns for correlated in-situ data. EBONE in its initial development, focused on three main indicators covering: (i) the extent and change of habitats of European interest in the context of a general habitat assessment; (ii) abundance and distribution of selected species (birds, butterflies and plants); and (iii) fragmentation of natural and semi-natural areas. For habitat extent, we decided that it did not matter how in-situ was integrated with EO as long as we could demonstrate that acceptable accuracies could be achieved and the precision could consistently be improved. The nomenclature used to map habitats in-situ was the General Habitat Classification. We considered the following options where the EO and in-situ play different roles: using in-situ samples to re-calibrate a habitat map independently derived from EO; improving the accuracy of in-situ sampled habitat statistics, by post-stratification with correlated EO data; and using in-situ samples to train the classification of EO data into habitat types where the EO data delivers full coverage or a larger number of samples. For some of the above cases we also considered the impact that the sampling strategy employed to deliver the samples would have on the accuracy and precision achieved. Restricted access to European wide species data prevented work on the indicator ‘abundance and distribution of species’. With respect to the indicator ‘fragmentation’, we investigated ways of delivering EO derived measures of habitat patterns that are meaningful to sampled in-situ observations

Assessing Global Surface Water Inundation Dynamics Using Combined Satellite Information from SMAP, AMSR2 and Landsat

A method to assess global land surface water (fw) inundation dynamics was developed by exploiting the enhanced fw sensitivity of L-band (1.4 GHz) passive microwave observations from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission. The L-band fw (fw(sub LBand)) retrievals were derived using SMAP H-polarization brightness temperature (Tb) observations and predefined L-band reference microwave emissivities for water and land endmembers. Potential soil moisture and vegetation contributions to the microwave signal were represented from overlapping higher frequency (Tb) observations from AMSR2. The resulting (fw(sub LBand)) global record has high temporal sampling (1-3 days) and 36-km spatial resolution. The (fw(sub LBand)) annual averages corresponded favourably (R=0.84, p<0.001) with a 250-m resolution static global water map (MOD44W) aggregated at the same spatial scale, while capturing significant inundation variations worldwide. The monthly (fw(sub LBand)) averages also showed seasonal inundation changes consistent with river discharge records within six major US river basins. An uncertainty analysis indicated generally reliable (fw(sub LBand)) performance for major land cover areas and under low to moderate vegetation cover, but with lower accuracy for detecting water bodies covered by dense vegetation. Finer resolution (30-m) (fw(sub LBand)) results were obtained for three sub-regions in North America using an empirical downscaling approach and ancillary global Water Occurrence Dataset (WOD) derived from the historical Landsat record. The resulting 30-m (fw(sub LBand)) retrievals showed favourable spatial accuracy for water (70.71%) and land (98.99%) classifications and seasonal wet and dry periods when compared to independent water maps derived from Landsat-8 imagery. The new (fw(sub LBand)) algorithms and continuing SMAP and AMSR2 operations provide for near real-time, multi-scale monitoring of global surface water inundation dynamics and potential flood risk