Decision Rules Acquisition for Inconsistent Disjunctive Set-Valued Ordered Decision Information Systems

Set-valued information system is an important formal framework for the development of decision support systems. We focus on the decision rules acquisition for the inconsistent disjunctive set-valued ordered decision information system in this paper. In order to derive optimal decision rules for an inconsistent disjunctive set-valued ordered decision information system, we define the concept of reduct of an object. By constructing the dominance discernibility function for an object, we compute reducts of the object via utilizing Boolean reasoning techniques, and then the corresponding optimal decision rules are induced. Finally, we discuss the certain reduct of the inconsistent disjunctive set-valued ordered decision information system, which can be used to simplify all certain decision rules as much as possible

ISIPTA'07: Proceedings of the Fifth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications

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Risk-informed decision-making in the presence of epistemic uncertainty

International audienceAn important issue in risk analysis is the distinction between epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. In this paper, the use of distinct representation formats for aleatory and epistemic uncertainties is advocated, the latter being modelled by sets of possible values. Modern uncertainty theories based on convex sets of probabilities are known to be instrumental for hybrid representations where aleatory and epistemic components of uncertainty remain distinct. Simple uncertainty representation techniques based on fuzzy intervals and p-boxes are used in practice. This paper outlines a risk analysis methodology from elicitation of knowledge about parameters to decision. It proposes an elicitation methodology where the chosen representation format depends on the nature and the amount of available information. Uncertainty propagation methods then blend Monte-Carlo simulation and interval analysis techniques. Nevertheless, results provided by these techniques, often in terms of probability intervals, may be too complex to interpret for a decision-maker and we therefore propose to compute a unique indicator of the likelihood of risk, called confidence index. It explicitly accounts for the decision-maker's attitude in the face of ambiguity. This step takes place at the end of the risk analysis process, when no further collection of evidence is possible that might reduce the ambiguity due to epistemic uncertainty. This last feature stands in contrast with the Bayesian methodology, where epistemic uncertainties on input parameters are modelled by single subjective probabilities at the beginning of the risk analysis process

Modelling and solution methods for stochastic optimisation

This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University.In this thesis we consider two research problems, namely, (i) language constructs for modelling stochastic programming (SP) problems and (ii) solution methods for processing instances of different classes of SP problems. We first describe a new design of an SP modelling system which provides greater extensibility and reuse. We implement this enhanced system and develop solver connections. We also investigate in detail the following important classes of SP problems: singlestage SP with risk constraints, two-stage linear and stochastic integer programming problems. We report improvements to solution methods for single-stage problems with second-order stochastic dominance constraints and two-stage SP problems. In both cases we use the level method as a regularisation mechanism. We also develop novel heuristic methods for stochastic integer programming based on variable neighbourhood search. We describe an algorithmic framework for implementing decomposition methods such as the L-shaped method within our SP solver system. Based on this framework we implement a number of established solution algorithms as well as a new regularisation method for stochastic linear programming. We compare the performance of these methods and their scale-up properties on an extensive set of benchmark problems. We also implement several solution methods for stochastic integer programming and report a computational study comparing their performance. The three solution methods, (a) processing of a single-stage problem with second-order stochastic dominance constraints, (b) regularisation by the level method for two-stage SP and (c) method for solving integer SP problems, are novel approaches and each of these makes a contribution to knowledge.Financial support was obtained from OptiRisk Systems

Rough sets, their extensions and applications

Rough set theory provides a useful mathematical foundation for developing automated computational systems that can help understand and make use of imperfect knowledge. Despite its recency, the theory and its extensions have been widely applied to many problems, including decision analysis, data-mining, intelligent control and pattern recognition. This paper presents an outline of the basic concepts of rough sets and their major extensions, covering variable precision, tolerance and fuzzy rough sets. It also shows the diversity of successful applications these theories have entailed, ranging from financial and business, through biological and medicine, to physical, art, and meteorological