Development of Agent-Based Simulation Models for Software Evolution

Software ist ein Bestandteil des alltäglichen Lebens für uns geworden. Dies ist auch mit zunehmenden Anforderungen an die Anpassungsfähigkeit an sich schnell ändernde Umgebungen verbunden. Dieser evolutionäre Prozess der Software wird von einem dem Software Engineering zugehörigen Forschungsbereich, der Softwareevolution, untersucht. Die Änderungen an einer Software über die Zeit werden durch die Arbeit der Entwickler verursacht. Aus diesem Grund stellt das Entwicklerverhalten einen zentralen Bestandteil dar, wenn man die Evolution eines Softwareprojekts analysieren möchte. Für die Analyse realer Projekte steht eine Vielzahl von Open Source Projekten frei zur Verfügung. Für die Simulation von Softwareprojekten benutzen wir Multiagentensysteme, da wir damit das Verhalten der Entwickler detailliert beschrieben können. In dieser Dissertation entwickeln wir mehrere, aufeinander aufbauende, agentenbasierte Modelle, die unterschiedliche Aspekte der Software Evolution abdecken. Wir beginnen mit einem einfachen Modell ohne Abhängigkeiten zwischen den Agenten, mit dem man allein durch das Entwicklerverhalten das Wachstum eines realen Projekts simulativ reproduzieren kann. Darauffolgende Modelle wurden um weitere Agenten, zum Beispiel unterschiedliche Entwickler-Typen und Fehler, sowie Abhängigkeiten zwischen den Agenten ergänzt. Mit diesen erweiterten Modellen lassen sich unterschiedliche Fragestellungen betreffend Software Evolution simulativ beantworten. Eine dieser Fragen beantwortet zum Beispiel was mit der Software bezüglich ihrer Qualität passiert, wenn der Hauptentwickler das Projekt plötzlich verlässt. Das komplexeste Modell ist in der Lage Software Refactorings zu simulieren und nutzt dazu Graph Transformationen. Die Simulation erzeugt als Ausgabe einen Graphen, der die Software repräsentiert. Als Repräsentant der Software dient der Change-Coupling-Graph, der für die Simulation von Refactorings erweitert wird. Dieser Graph wird in dieser Arbeit als \emph{Softwaregraph} bezeichnet. Um die verschiedenen Modelle zu parametrisieren haben wir unterschiedliche Mining-Werkzeuge entwickelt. Diese Werkzeuge ermöglichen es uns ein Modell mit projektspezifischen Parametern zu instanziieren, ein Modell mit einem Snapshot des analysierten Projektes zu instanziieren oder Transformationsregeln zu parametrisieren, die für die Modellierung von Refactorings benötigt werden. Die Ergebnisse aus drei Fallstudien zeigen unter anderem, dass unser Ansatz agentenbasierte Simulation für die Vorhersage der Evolution von Software Projekten eine geeignete Wahl ist. Des Weiteren konnten wir zeigen, dass mit einer geeigneten Parameterwahl unterschiedliche Wachstumstrends der realen Software simulativ reproduzierbar sind. Die besten Ergebnisse für den simulierten Softwaregraphen erhalten wir, wenn wir die Simulation nach einer initialen Phase mit einem Snapshot der realen Software starten. Die Refactorings betreffend konnten wir zeigen, dass das Modell basierend auf Graph Transformationen anwendbar ist und dass das simulierte Wachstum sich damit leicht verbessern lässt.Software has become a part of everyday life for us. This is also associated with increasing requirements for adaptability to rapidly changing environments. This evolutionary process of software is being studied by a software engineering related research area, called software evolution. The changes to a software over time are caused by the work of the developers. For this reason, the developer contribution behavior is central for analyzing the evolution of a software project. For the analysis of real projects, a variety of open source projects is freely available. For the simulation of software projects, we use multiagent systems because this allows us to describe the behavior of the developers in detail. In this thesis, we develop several successive agent-based models that cover different aspects of software evolution. We start with a simple model with no dependencies between the agents that can simulative reproduce the growth of a real project solely based on the developer’s contribution behavior. Subsequent models were supplemented by additional agents, such as different developer types and bugs, as well as dependencies between the agents. These advanced models can then be used to answer different questions concerning software evolution simulative. For example, one of these questions answers what happens to the software in terms of quality when the core developer suddenly leaves the project. The most complex model can simulate software refactorings based on graph transformations. The simulation output is a graph which represents the software. The representative of the software is the change coupling graph, which is extended for the simulation of refactorings. In this thesis, this graph is denoted as \emph{software graph}. To parameterize these models, we have developed different mining tools. These tools allow us to instantiate a model with project-specific parameters, to instantiate a model with a snapshot of the analyzed project, or to parameterize the transformation rules required to model refactorings. The results of three case studies show, among other things, that our approach to use agent-based simulation is an appropriate choice for predicting the evolution of software projects. Furthermore, we were able to show that different growth trends of the real software can be reproduced simulative with a suitable selection of simulation parameters. The best results for the simulated software graph are obtained when we start the simulation after an initial phase with a snapshot of real software. Regarding refactorings, we were able to show that the model based on graph transformations is applicable and that it can slightly improve the simulated growth

Developing an agent-based simulation model of software evolution

Context In attempt to simulate the factors that affect the software evolution behaviour and possibly predict it, several simulation models have been developed recently. The current system dynamic (SD) simulation model of software evolution process was built based on actor-network theory (ANT) of software evolution by using system dynamic environment, which is not a suitable environment to reflect the complexity of ANT theory. In addition the SD model has not been investigated for its ability to represent the real-world process of software evolution. Objectives This paper aims to re-implements the current SD model to an agent-based simulation environment ‘Repast’ and checks the behaviour of the new model compared to the existing SD model. It also aims to investigate the ability of the new Repast model to represent the real-world process of software evolution. Methods a new agent-based simulation model is developed based on the current SD model's specifications and then tests similar to the previous model tests are conducted in order to perform a comparative evaluation between of these two results. In addition an investigation is carried out through an interview with an expert in software development area to investigate the model's ability to represent real-world process of software evolution. Results The Repast model shows more stable behaviour compared with the SD model. Results also found that the evolution health of the software can be calibrated quantitatively and that the new Repast model does have the ability to represent real-world processes of software evolution. Conclusion It is concluded that by applying a more suitable simulation environment (agent-based) to represent ANT theory of software evolution, that this new simulation model will show more stable bahaviour compared with the previous SD model; And it will also shows the ability to represent (at least quantatively) the real-world aspect of software evolution.Peer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio

Massive Multi-Agent Data-Driven Simulations of the GitHub Ecosystem

Simulating and predicting planetary-scale techno-social systems poses heavy computational and modeling challenges. The DARPA SocialSim program set the challenge to model the evolution of GitHub, a large collaborative software-development ecosystem, using massive multi-agent simulations. We describe our best performing models and our agent-based simulation framework, which we are currently extending to allow simulating other planetary-scale techno-social systems. The challenge problem measured participant's ability, given 30 months of meta-data on user activity on GitHub, to predict the next months' activity as measured by a broad range of metrics applied to ground truth, using agent-based simulation. The challenge required scaling to a simulation of roughly 3 million agents producing a combined 30 million actions, acting on 6 million repositories with commodity hardware. It was also important to use the data optimally to predict the agent's next moves. We describe the agent framework and the data analysis employed by one of the winning teams in the challenge. Six different agent models were tested based on a variety of machine learning and statistical methods. While no single method proved the most accurate on every metric, the broadly most successful sampled from a stationary probability distribution of actions and repositories for each agent. Two reasons for the success of these agents were their use of a distinct characterization of each agent, and that GitHub users change their behavior relatively slowly

Agent-based simulation of open source evolution

We present an agent-based simulation model developed to study how size, complexity and effort relate to each other in the development of open source software (OSS). In the model, many developer agents generate, extend, and re-factor code modules independently and in parallel. This accords with empirical observations of OSS development. To our knowledge, this is the first model of OSS evolution that includes the complexity of software modules as a limiting factor in productivity, the fitness of the software to its requirements, and the motivation of developers. Validation of the model was done by comparing the simulated results against four measures of software evolution (system size, proportion of highly complex modules, level of complexity control work, and distribution of changes) for four large OSS systems. The simulated results resembled the observed data, except for system size: three of the OSS systems showed alternating patterns of super-linear and sub-linear growth, while the simulations produced only super-linear growth. However, the fidelity of the model for the other measures suggests that developer motivation and the limiting effect of complexity on productivity have a significant effect on the development of OSS systems and should be considered in any model of OSS development

Agent-based Simulation of Open Source Software Evolution

We present an agent-based simulation model of open source software (OSS). To our knowledge, this is the first model of OSS evolution that includes four significant factors: productivity limited by the complexity of software modules, the software's fitness for purpose, the motivation of developers, and the role of users in defining requirements. The model was evaluated by comparing the simulated results against four measures of software evolution (system size, proportion of highly complex modules, level of complexity control work, and distribution of changes) for four large OSS systems. The simulated results resembled all the observed data, including alternating periods of growth and stagnation. The fidelity of the model suggests that the factors included here have significant effects on the evolution of OSS systems

Overview on agent-based social modelling and the use of formal languages

Transdisciplinary Models and Applications investigates a variety of programming languages used in validating and verifying models in order to assist in their eventual implementation. This book will explore different methods of evaluating and formalizing simulation models, enabling computer and industrial engineers, mathematicians, and students working with computer simulations to thoroughly understand the progression from simulation to product, improving the overall effectiveness of modeling systems.Postprint (author's final draft

Simulation Models for Analyzing the Dynamic Costs of Process-aware Information Systems

Introducing process-aware information systems (PAIS) in enterprises (e.g., workflow management systems, case handling systems) is associated with high costs. Though cost estimation has received considerable attention in software engineering for many years, it is difficult to apply existing approaches to PAIS. This difficulty particularly stems from the inability of existing estimation techniques to deal with the complex interplay of the many technological, organizational and project-driven factors which emerge in the context of PAIS. In response to this problem, this paper proposes an approach which utilizes simulation models for investigating the dynamic costs of PAIS engineering projects. We motivate the need for simulation, discuss the development and execution of simulation models, and give an illustrating example. The present work has been accomplished in the EcoPOST project, which deals with the development of a comprehensive evaluation framework for analyzing PAIS engineering projects from a value-based perspective

Robot life: simulation and participation in the study of evolution and social behavior.

This paper explores the case of using robots to simulate evolution, in particular the case of Hamilton's Law. The uses of robots raises several questions that this paper seeks to address. The first concerns the role of the robots in biological research: do they simulate something (life, evolution, sociality) or do they participate in something? The second question concerns the physicality of the robots: what difference does embodiment make to the role of the robot in these experiments. Thirdly, how do life, embodiment and social behavior relate in contemporary biology and why is it possible for robots to illuminate this relation? These questions are provoked by a strange similarity that has not been noted before: between the problem of simulation in philosophy of science, and Deleuze's reading of Plato on the relationship of ideas, copies and simulacra

Digital Ecosystems: Ecosystem-Oriented Architectures

We view Digital Ecosystems to be the digital counterparts of biological ecosystems. Here, we are concerned with the creation of these Digital Ecosystems, exploiting the self-organising properties of biological ecosystems to evolve high-level software applications. Therefore, we created the Digital Ecosystem, a novel optimisation technique inspired by biological ecosystems, where the optimisation works at two levels: a first optimisation, migration of agents which are distributed in a decentralised peer-to-peer network, operating continuously in time; this process feeds a second optimisation based on evolutionary computing that operates locally on single peers and is aimed at finding solutions to satisfy locally relevant constraints. The Digital Ecosystem was then measured experimentally through simulations, with measures originating from theoretical ecology, evaluating its likeness to biological ecosystems. This included its responsiveness to requests for applications from the user base, as a measure of the ecological succession (ecosystem maturity). Overall, we have advanced the understanding of Digital Ecosystems, creating Ecosystem-Oriented Architectures where the word ecosystem is more than just a metaphor.Comment: 39 pages, 26 figures, journa

A framework for the simulation of structural software evolution

This is the author's accepted manuscript. The final published article is available from the link below. Copyright @ 2008 ACM.As functionality is added to an aging piece of software, its original design and structure will tend to erode. This can lead to high coupling, low cohesion and other undesirable effects associated with spaghetti architectures. The underlying forces that cause such degradation have been the subject of much research. However, progress in this field is slow, as its complexity makes it difficult to isolate the causal flows leading to these effects. This is further complicated by the difficulty of generating enough empirical data, in sufficient quantity, and attributing such data to specific points in the causal chain. This article describes a framework for simulating the structural evolution of software. A complete simulation model is built by incrementally adding modules to the framework, each of which contributes an individual evolutionary effect. These effects are then combined to form a multifaceted simulation that evolves a fictitious code base in a manner approximating real-world behavior. We describe the underlying principles and structures of our framework from a theoretical and user perspective; a validation of a simple set of evolutionary parameters is then provided and three empirical software studies generated from open-source software (OSS) are used to support claims and generated results. The research illustrates how simulation can be used to investigate a complex and under-researched area of the development cycle. It also shows the value of incorporating certain human traits into a simulation—factors that, in real-world system development, can significantly influence evolutionary structures