A multi-method approach to delineate and validate migratory corridors

Context: Managers are faced with numerous methods for delineating wildlife movement corridors, and often must make decisions with limited data. Delineated corridors should be robust to different data and models. Objectives: We present a multi-method approach for delineating and validating wildlife corridors using multiple data sources, which can be used conserve landscape connectivity. We used this approach to delineate and validate migration corridors for wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus) in the Tarangire Ecosystem of northern Tanzania. Methods: We used two types of locational data (distance sampling detections and GPS collar locations), and three modeling methods (negative binomial regression, logistic regression, and Maxent), to generate resource selection functions (RSFs) and define resistance surfaces. We compared two corridor detection algorithms (cost-distance and circuit theory), to delineate corridors. We validated corridors by comparing random and wildebeest locations that fell within corridors, and cross-validated by data type. Results: Both data types produced similar RSFs. Wildebeest consistently selected migration habitat in flatter terrain farther from human settlements. Validation indicated three of the combinations of data type, modeling, and corridor detection algorithms (detection data with Maxent modeling, GPS collar data with logistic regression modeling, and GPS collar data with Maxent modeling, all using cost-distance) far outperformed the other seven. We merged the predictive corridors from these three data-method combinations to reveal habitat with highest probability of use. Conclusions: The use of multiple methods ensures that planning is able to prioritize conservation of migration corridors based on all available information

Quantification of habitat fragmentation reveals extinction risk in terrestrial mammals

Although habitat fragmentation is often assumed to be a primary driver of extinction, global patterns of fragmentation and its relationship to extinction risk have not been consistently quantified for any major animal taxon. We developed high-resolution habitat fragmentation models and used phylogenetic comparative methods to quantify the effects of habitat fragmentation on the world's terrestrial mammals, including 4,018 species across 26 taxonomic Orders. Results demonstrate that species with more fragmentation are at greater risk of extinction, even after accounting for the effects of key macroecological predictors, such as body size and geographic range size. Species with higher fragmentation had smaller ranges and a lower proportion of high-suitability habitat within their range, andmost high-suitability habitat occurred outside of protected areas, further elevating extinction risk. Our models provide a quantitative evaluation of extinction risk assessments for species, allow for identification of emerging threats in species not classified as threatened, and provide maps of global hotspots of fragmentation for the world's terrestrial mammals. Quantification of habitat fragmentation will help guide threat assessment and strategic priorities for global mammal conservation

Effective use of ERTS multisensor data in the Northern Great Plains

The author has identified the following significant results. ERTS imagery was used as a tool in the identification and refinement of soil association areas; to classify land use patterns between crop and fallow fields; to identify corn, soybeans, and oats; and to identify broad generalized range ecosystems. Various data handling techniques were developed and applied to accomplish these tasks. A map outlining soil associations and relative land values was completed on a base mosaic of ERTS imagery and is included as an appendix to the report

Transition from connected to fragmented vegetation across an environmental gradient: scaling laws in ecotone geometry

A change in the environmental conditions across space—for example, altitude or latitude—can cause significant changes in the density of a vegetation type and, consequently, in spatial connectivity. We use spatially explicit simulations to study the transition from connected to fragmented vegetation. A static (gradient percolation) model is compared to dynamic (gradient contact process) models. Connectivity is characterized from the perspective of various species that use this vegetation type for habitat and differ in dispersal or migration range, that is, “step length” across the landscape. The boundary of connected vegetation delineated by a particular step length is termed the “ hull edge.” We found that for every step length and for every gradient, the hull edge is a fractal with dimension 7/4. The result is the same for different spatial models, suggesting that there are universal laws in ecotone geometry. To demonstrate that the model is applicable to real data, a hull edge of fractal dimension 7/4 is shown on a satellite image of a piñon‐juniper woodland on a hillside. We propose to use the hull edge to define the boundary of a vegetation type unambiguously. This offers a new tool for detecting a shift of the boundary due to a climate change

Complexity, BioComplexity, the Connectionist Conjecture and Ontology of Complexity\ud

This paper develops and integrates major ideas and concepts on complexity and biocomplexity - the connectionist conjecture, universal ontology of complexity, irreducible complexity of totality & inherent randomness, perpetual evolution of information, emergence of criticality and equivalence of symmetry & complexity. This paper introduces the Connectionist Conjecture which states that the one and only representation of Totality is the connectionist one i.e. in terms of nodes and edges. This paper also introduces an idea of Universal Ontology of Complexity and develops concepts in that direction. The paper also develops ideas and concepts on the perpetual evolution of information, irreducibility and computability of totality, all in the context of the Connectionist Conjecture. The paper indicates that the control and communication are the prime functionals that are responsible for the symmetry and complexity of complex phenomenon. The paper takes the stand that the phenomenon of life (including its evolution) is probably the nearest to what we can describe with the term “complexity”. The paper also assumes that signaling and communication within the living world and of the living world with the environment creates the connectionist structure of the biocomplexity. With life and its evolution as the substrate, the paper develops ideas towards the ontology of complexity. The paper introduces new complexity theoretic interpretations of fundamental biomolecular parameters. The paper also develops ideas on the methodology to determine the complexity of “true” complex phenomena.\u

Spatial heterogeneity of habitat suitability for Rift Valley fever occurrence in Tanzania: an ecological niche modelling approach

Despite the long history of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in Tanzania, extent of its suitable habitat in the country remains unclear. In this study we investigated potential effects of temperature, precipitation, elevation, soil type, livestock density, rainfall pattern, proximity to wild animals, protected areas and forest on the habitat suitability for RVF occurrence in Tanzania. Presence-only records of 193 RVF outbreak locations from 1930 to 2007 together with potential predictor variables were used to model and map the suitable habitats for RVF occurrence using ecological niche modelling. Ground-truthing of the model outputs was conducted by comparing the levels of RVF virus specific antibodies in cattle, sheep and goats sampled from locations in Tanzania that presented different predicted habitat suitability values. Habitat suitability values for RVF occurrence were higher in the northern and central-eastern regions of Tanzania than the rest of the regions in the country. Soil type and precipitation of the wettest quarter contributed equally to habitat suitability (32.4% each), followed by livestock density (25.9%) and rainfall pattern (9.3%). Ground-truthing of model outputs revealed that the odds of an animal being seropositive for RVFV when sampled from areas predicted to be most suitable for RVF occurrence were twice the odds of an animal sampled from areas least suitable for RVF occurrence (95% CI: 1.43, 2.76, p < 0.001). The regions in the northern and central-eastern Tanzania were more suitable for RVF occurrence than the rest of the regions in the country. The modelled suitable habitat is characterised by impermeable soils, moderate precipitation in the wettest quarter, high livestock density and a bimodal rainfall pattern. The findings of this study should provide guidance for the design of appropriate RVF surveillance, prevention and control strategies which target areas with these characteristics

Stock boundaries for fisheries assessment and management in the Mediterranean: the Balearic Islands as a case study

The stock concept plays a pivotal role in fisheries assessment and management. Stocks are defined according to biological, geographical, economic or socio-political factors. The General Fisheries Commission for the Mediterranean (GFCM) has established thirty management geographical sub-areas (GSAs) based on political and statistical considerations rather than biological or economic factors. Here, we present our view on the main biological and ecological aspects that should be considered for delineating different management units in the Mediterranean. We focus on the Balearic Islands (GSA05) as a case study highlighting its specificities compared to the adjacent coast of the Iberian Peninsula (GSA06), but the approach could be generalized to the problem of identifying stock boundaries in other areas. The work is based on published information from different marine disciplines such as geomorphology, ecology and fisheries, combined with the analysis of new data coming from official fishery statistics and scientific surveys. This approach avoids the important draw¬backs (inconclusive results, high costs) of other time-consuming techniques used in stock identification, such as genetics. According to the information presented, we conclude that GSA05 should be maintained as an individualized area for assess-ment and management purposes in the western MediterraneanPublicado

The edge of neutral evolution in social dilemmas

The functioning of animal as well as human societies fundamentally relies on cooperation. Yet, defection is often favorable for the selfish individual, and social dilemmas arise. Selection by individuals' fitness, usually the basic driving force of evolution, quickly eliminates cooperators. However, evolution is also governed by fluctuations that can be of greater importance than fitness differences, and can render evolution effectively neutral. Here, we investigate the effects of selection versus fluctuations in social dilemmas. By studying the mean extinction times of cooperators and defectors, a variable sensitive to fluctuations, we are able to identify and quantify an emerging 'edge of neutral evolution' that delineates regimes of neutral and Darwinian evolution. Our results reveal that cooperation is significantly maintained in the neutral regimes. In contrast, the classical predictions of evolutionary game theory, where defectors beat cooperators, are recovered in the Darwinian regimes. Our studies demonstrate that fluctuations can provide a surprisingly simple way to partly resolve social dilemmas. Our methods are generally applicable to estimate the role of random drift in evolutionary dynamics.Comment: 17 pages, 4 figure

Effects of phylogenetic reconstruction method on the robustness of species delimitation using single-locus data

1. Coalescent-based species delimitation methods combine population genetic and phylogenetic theory to provide an objective means for delineating evolutionarily significant units of diversity. The Generalized Mixed Yule Coalescent (GMYC) and the Poisson Tree Process (PTP) are methods that use ultrametric (GMYC or PTP) or non-ultrametric (PTP) gene trees as input, intended for use mostly with single-locus data such as DNA barcodes. 2. Here we assess how robust the GMYC and PTP are to different phylogenetic reconstruction and branch smoothing methods. We reconstruct over 400 ultrametric trees using up to 30 different combinations of phylogenetic and smoothing methods and perform over 2,000 separate species delimitation analyses across 16 empirical datasets. We then assess how variable diversity estimates are, in terms of richness and identity, with respect to species delimitation, phylogenetic and smoothing methods. 3. The PTP method generally generates diversity estimates that are more robust to different phylogenetic methods. The GMYC is more sensitive, but provides consistent estimates for BEAST trees. The lower consistency of GMYC estimates is likely a result of differences among gene trees introduced by the smoothing step. Unresolved nodes (real anomalies or methodological artefacts) affect both GMYC and PTP estimates, but have a greater effect on GMYC estimates. Branch smoothing is a difficult step and perhaps an underappreciated source of bias that may be widespread among studies of diversity and diversification. 4. Nevertheless, careful choice of phylogenetic method does produce equivalent PTP and GMYC diversity estimates. We recommend simultaneous use of the PTP model with any model-based gene tree (e.g. RAxML) and GMYC approaches with BEAST trees for obtaining species hypotheses