Comparative analysis of NOAA REFM and SNB 3 GEO tools for the forecast of the fluxes of high-energy electrons at GEO

Reliable forecasts of relativistic electrons at geostationary orbit (GEO) are important for the mitigation of their hazardous effects on spacecraft at GEO. For a number of years the Space Weather Prediction Center at NOAA has provided advanced online forecasts of the fluence of electrons with energy >2 MeV at GEO using the Relativistic Electron Forecast Model (REFM). The REFM forecasts are based on real-time solar wind speed observations at L1. The high reliability of this forecasting tool serves as a benchmark for the assessment of other forecasting tools. Since 2012 the Sheffield SNB3GEO model has been operating online, providing a 24 h ahead forecast of the same fluxes. In addition to solar wind speed, the SNB3GEO forecasts use solar wind density and interplanetary magnetic field Bz observations at L1.The period of joint operation of both of these forecasts has been used to compare their accuracy. Daily averaged measurements of electron fluxes by GOES 13 have been used to estimate the prediction efficiency of both forecasting tools. To assess the reliability of both models to forecast infrequent events of very high fluxes, the Heidke skill score was employed. The results obtained indicate that SNB3GEO provides a more accurate 1 day ahead forecast when compared to REFM. It is shown that the correction methodology utilized by REFM potentially can improve the SNB3GEO forecast

Electron flux models for different energies at geostationary orbit

Forecast models were derived for energetic electrons at all energy ranges sampled by the third-generation Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES). These models were based on Multi-Input Single-Output Nonlinear Autoregressive Moving Average with Exogenous inputs methodologies. The model inputs include the solar wind velocity, density and pressure, the fraction of time that the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was southward, the IMF contribution of a solar wind-magnetosphere coupling function proposed by Boynton et al. (2011b), and the Dst index. As such, this study has deduced five new 1 h resolution models for the low-energy electrons measured by GOES (30–50 keV, 50–100 keV, 100–200 keV, 200–350 keV, and 350–600 keV) and extended the existing >800 keV and >2 MeV Geostationary Earth Orbit electron fluxes models to forecast at a 1 h resolution. All of these models were shown to provide accurate forecasts, with prediction efficiencies ranging between 66.9% and 82.3%

Bio-Inspired Approach to Modelling Retinal Ganglion Cells using System Identification Techniques

The processing capabilities of biological vision systems are still vastly superior to artificial vision, even though this has been an active area of research for over half a century. Current artificial vision techniques integrate many insights from biology yet they remain far-off the capabilities of animals and humans in terms of speed, power, and performance. A key aspect to modeling the human visual system is the ability to accurately model the behavior and computation within the retina. In particular, we focus on modeling the retinal ganglion cells (RGCs) as they convey the accumulated data of real world images as action potentials onto the visual cortex via the optic nerve. Computational models that approximate the processing that occurs within RGCs can be derived by quantitatively fitting the sets of physiological data using an input–output analysis where the input is a known stimulus and the output is neuronal recordings. Currently, these input–output responses are modeled using computational combinations of linear and nonlinear models that are generally complex and lack any relevance to the underlying biophysics. In this paper, we illustrate how system identification techniques, which take inspiration from biological systems, can accurately model retinal ganglion cell behavior, and are a viable alternative to traditional linear–nonlinear approaches

System identification of local time electron fluencies at geostationary orbit

The electron fluxes at geostationary orbit measured by Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) 13, 14, and 15 spacecraft are modeled using system identification techniques. System identification, similar to machine learning, uses input‐output data to train a model, which can then be used to provide forecasts. This study employs the nonlinear autoregressive moving average exogenous technique to deduce the electron flux models. The electron fluxes at geostationary orbit are known to vary in space and time, making it a spatiotemporal system, which complicates the modeling using system identification/machine learning approach. Therefore, the electron flux data are binned into 24 magnetic local time (MLT), and a separate model is developed for each of the 24 MLT bins. MLT models are developed for six of the GOES 13, 14, and 15 electron flux energy channels (75 keV, 150 keV, 275 keV, 475 keV, >800 keV, and >2 MeV). The models are assessed on separate test data by prediction efficiency (PE) and correlation coefficient (CC) and found these to vary by MLT and electron energy. The lowest energy of 75 keV at the midnight sector had a PE of 36.0 and CC of 59.3, which increased on the dayside to a PE of 66.9 and CC of 81.6. These metrics increased to the >2 MeV model, which had a low PE and CC of 63.0 and 81.8 on the nightside to a high of 80.3 and 90.8 on the dayside

The influence of solar wind and geomagnetic indices on lower band chorus emissions in the inner magnetosphere

Statistical wave models, describing the distribution of wave amplitudes as a function of location, geomagnetic activity, and other parameters, are needed as the basis to describe the wave-particle interactions within numerical models of the radiation belts. In this study, we widen the scope of the statistical wave models by investigating which of the solar wind parameters or geomagnetic indices and their time lags have the greatest influence on the amplitudes of lower band chorus (LBC) waves in the inner magnetosphere. The solar wind parameters or geomagnetic indices with the greatest control over the waves were found using the error reduction ratio (ERR) analysis, which plays a key role in system identification modeling techniques. In this application, the LBC magnitudes at different locations are considered as the output data, while the lagged solar wind parameters are the input data. The ERR analysis automatically determines a set of the most influential parameters that explain the variations in the emissions. Both linear and nonlinear applications of the ERR analysis are compared using solar wind inputs and show that the linear ERR analysis can be misleading. The linear results show that the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) factor has the most influence on at each magnetic local time (MLT) sector. However, the nonlinear ERR analysis shows that the IMF factor coupled with the solar wind velocity has the main contribution to the LBC wave magnitudes. When geomagnetic indices are included as inputs with the solar wind parameters to the nonlinear ERR analysis, the results show that the majority of the variation in emissions may be attributed to the Auroral Electrojet (AE) index. In the dawn sectors between 00 and 12 MLT and 5 < L < 7, the AE index multiplied by the solar wind velocity with zero time lag has the most influence on the amplitudes of LBC. For 5 < L < 7, the parameters with the highest ERR are the AE index multiplied by the solar wind velocity with a 2-hr time lag at 12–16 MLT, the linear AE index with a 2-hr time lag at 16–20 MLT, and AE index multiplied by the IMF factor with zero lag at 20–00 MLT. For 4 < L < 5, the parameters with the highest ERR are the AE index multiplied by the solar wind dynamic pressure with zero time lag at 00–04 MLT, the AE index multiplied by the solar wind velocity with zero time lag between 14 and 12 MLT, the AE index multiplied by the solar wind velocity with a 2-hr time lag at 12–16 MLT, the Dst index with a 6-hr time lag at 12–16 MLT, and the AE index multiplied by the IMF factor with zero lag at 20–00 MLT

A dynamical model of equatorial magnetosonic waves in the inner magnetosphere: a machine learning approach

Equatorial magnetosonic waves (EMS), together with chorus and plasmaspheric hiss, play key roles in the dynamics of energetic electron fluxes in the magnetosphere. Numerical models, developed following a first principles approach, that are used to study the evolution of high energy electron fluxes are mainly based on quasilinear diffusion. The application of such numerical codes requires statistical models for the distribution of key magnetospheric wave modes to estimate the appropriate diffusion coefficients. These waves are generally statistically modeled as a function of spatial location and geomagnetic indices (e.g., AE, Kp, or Dst). This study presents a novel dynamic spatiotemporal model for EMS wave amplitude, developed using the Nonlinear AutoRegressive Moving Average eXogenous machine learning approach. The EMS wave amplitude, measured by the Van Allen Probes, are modeled using the time lags of the solar wind and geomagnetic indices as inputs as well as the location at which the measurement is made. The resulting model performance is assessed on a separate Van Allen Probes data set, where the prediction efficiency was found to be 34.0% and the correlation coefficient was 56.9%. With more training and validation data the performance metrics could potentially be improved, however, it is also possible that the EMS wave distribution is affected by stochastic factors and the performance metrics obtained for this model are close to the potential maximum

Sparse identification of contrast gain control in the fruit fly photoreceptor and amacrine cell layer

The fruit fly’s natural visual environment is often characterized by light intensities ranging across several orders of magnitude and by rapidly varying contrast across space and time. Fruit fly photoreceptors robustly transduce and, in conjunction with amacrine cells, process visual scenes and provide the resulting signal to downstream targets. Here, we model the first step of visual processing in the photoreceptor-amacrine cell layer. We propose a novel divisive normalization processor (DNP) for modeling the computation taking place in the photoreceptor-amacrine cell layer. The DNP explicitly models the photoreceptor feedforward and temporal feedback processing paths and the spatio-temporal feedback path of the amacrine cells. We then formally characterize the contrast gain control of the DNP and provide sparse identification algorithms that can efficiently identify each the feedforward and feedback DNP components. The algorithms presented here are the first demonstration of tractable and robust identification of the components of a divisive normalization processor. The sparse identification algorithms can be readily employed in experimental settings, and their effectiveness is demonstrated with several examples

Electrophysiological method for recording intracellular voltage responses of Drosophila photoreceptors and interneurons to light stimuli in vivo

Voltage responses of insect photoreceptors and visual interneurons can be accurately recorded with conventional sharp microelectrodes. The method described here enables the investigator to measure long-lasting (from minutes to hours) high-quality intracellular responses from single Drosophila R1-R6 photoreceptors and Large Monopolar Cells (LMCs) to light stimuli. Because the recording system has low noise, it can be used to study variability among individual cells in the fly eye, and how their outputs reflect the physical properties of the visual environment. We outline all key steps in performing this technique. The basic steps in constructing an appropriate electrophysiology set-up for recording, such as design and selection of the experimental equipment are described. We also explain how to prepare for recording by making appropriate (sharp) recording and (blunt) reference electrodes. Details are given on how to fix an intact fly in a bespoke fly-holder, prepare a small window in its eye and insert a recording electrode through this hole with minimal damage. We explain how to localize the center of a cell’s receptive field, dark - or light-adapt the studied cell, and to record its voltage responses to dynamic light stimuli. Finally, we describe the criteria for stable normal recordings, show characteristic high-quality voltage responses of individual cells to different light stimuli, and briefly define how to quantify their signaling performance. Many aspects of the method are technically challenging and require practice and patience to master. But once learned and optimized for the investigator’s experimental objectives, it grants outstanding in vivo neurophysiological data