Exact Failure Frequency Calculations for Extended Systems

This paper shows how the steady-state availability and failure frequency can be calculated in a single pass for very large systems, when the availability is expressed as a product of matrices. We apply the general procedure to $k$-out-of-$n$:G and linear consecutive $k$-out-of-$n$:F systems, and to a simple ladder network in which each edge and node may fail. We also give the associated generating functions when the components have identical availabilities and failure rates. For large systems, the failure rate of the whole system is asymptotically proportional to its size. This paves the way to ready-to-use formulae for various architectures, as well as proof that the differential operator approach to failure frequency calculations is very useful and straightforward

Exact two-terminal reliability of some directed networks

The calculation of network reliability in a probabilistic context has long been an issue of practical and academic importance. Conventional approaches (determination of bounds, sums of disjoint products algorithms, Monte Carlo evaluations, studies of the reliability polynomials, etc.) only provide approximations when the network's size increases, even when nodes do not fail and all edges have the same reliability p. We consider here a directed, generic graph of arbitrary size mimicking real-life long-haul communication networks, and give the exact, analytical solution for the two-terminal reliability. This solution involves a product of transfer matrices, in which individual reliabilities of edges and nodes are taken into account. The special case of identical edge and node reliabilities (p and rho, respectively) is addressed. We consider a case study based on a commonly-used configuration, and assess the influence of the edges being directed (or not) on various measures of network performance. While the two-terminal reliability, the failure frequency and the failure rate of the connection are quite similar, the locations of complex zeros of the two-terminal reliability polynomials exhibit strong differences, and various structure transitions at specific values of rho. The present work could be extended to provide a catalog of exactly solvable networks in terms of reliability, which could be useful as building blocks for new and improved bounds, as well as benchmarks, in the general case

A contribution to the evaluation and optimization of networks reliability

L’évaluation de la fiabilité des réseaux est un problème combinatoire très complexe qui nécessite des moyens de calcul très puissants. Plusieurs méthodes ont été proposées dans la littérature pour apporter des solutions. Certaines ont été programmées dont notamment les méthodes d’énumération des ensembles minimaux et la factorisation, et d’autres sont restées à l’état de simples théories. Cette thèse traite le cas de l’évaluation et l’optimisation de la fiabilité des réseaux. Plusieurs problèmes ont été abordés dont notamment la mise au point d’une méthodologie pour la modélisation des réseaux en vue de l’évaluation de leur fiabilités. Cette méthodologie a été validée dans le cadre d’un réseau de radio communication étendu implanté récemment pour couvrir les besoins de toute la province québécoise. Plusieurs algorithmes ont aussi été établis pour générer les chemins et les coupes minimales pour un réseau donné. La génération des chemins et des coupes constitue une contribution importante dans le processus d’évaluation et d’optimisation de la fiabilité. Ces algorithmes ont permis de traiter de manière rapide et efficace plusieurs réseaux tests ainsi que le réseau de radio communication provincial. Ils ont été par la suite exploités pour évaluer la fiabilité grâce à une méthode basée sur les diagrammes de décision binaire. Plusieurs contributions théoriques ont aussi permis de mettre en place une solution exacte de la fiabilité des réseaux stochastiques imparfaits dans le cadre des méthodes de factorisation. A partir de cette recherche plusieurs outils ont été programmés pour évaluer et optimiser la fiabilité des réseaux. Les résultats obtenus montrent clairement un gain significatif en temps d’exécution et en espace de mémoire utilisé par rapport à beaucoup d’autres implémentations. Mots-clés: Fiabilité, réseaux, optimisation, diagrammes de décision binaire, ensembles des chemins et coupes minimales, algorithmes, indicateur de Birnbaum, systèmes de radio télécommunication, programmes.Efficient computation of systems reliability is required in many sensitive networks. Despite the increased efficiency of computers and the proliferation of algorithms, the problem of finding good and quickly solutions in the case of large systems remains open. Recently, efficient computation techniques have been recognized as significant advances to solve the problem during a reasonable period of time. However, they are applicable to a special category of networks and more efforts still necessary to generalize a unified method giving exact solution. Assessing the reliability of networks is a very complex combinatorial problem which requires powerful computing resources. Several methods have been proposed in the literature. Some have been implemented including minimal sets enumeration and factoring methods, and others remained as simple theories. This thesis treats the case of networks reliability evaluation and optimization. Several issues were discussed including the development of a methodology for modeling networks and evaluating their reliabilities. This methodology was validated as part of a radio communication network project. In this work, some algorithms have been developed to generate minimal paths and cuts for a given network. The generation of paths and cuts is an important contribution in the process of networks reliability and optimization. These algorithms have been subsequently used to assess reliability by a method based on binary decision diagrams. Several theoretical contributions have been proposed and helped to establish an exact solution of the stochastic networks reliability in which edges and nodes are subject to failure using factoring decomposition theorem. From this research activity, several tools have been implemented and results clearly show a significant gain in time execution and memory space used by comparison to many other implementations. Key-words: Reliability, Networks, optimization, binary decision diagrams, minimal paths set and cuts set, algorithms, Birnbaum performance index, Networks, radio-telecommunication systems, programs

Intentional Controlled Islanding and Risk Assessment: A Unified Framework

Power systems are prone to cascading outages leading to large-area blackouts, and intentional controlled islanding (ICI) can mitigate these catastrophic events by splitting the system into sustainable islands. ICI schemes are used as the last resort to prevent cascading events; thus, it is critical to evaluate the corresponding system risks to ensure their correct operation. This paper proposes a unified framework to assess the risk of ICI schemes. First, a novel ICI method to create islands with minimum power imbalance is presented. Further, a risk assessment methodology is used to assess the probability and impact of the main operational modes of the ICI scheme. The unified framework provides insights on the benefits of implementing ICI, considering the uncertainties related to its reliability. The ICI scheme is demonstrated using the IEEE 9-bus system. The proposed unified framework is then fully deployed on the actual power system of Cyprus. Multiple case studies on the real network are created to demonstrate the adaptability and robustness of the proposed scheme to different system conditions. The adoption of the unified framework highlights that the system risk significantly reduces with the ICI in service, even when the reliability uncertainties associated with the scheme are considered.J. Quirós-Tortós, P. Demetriou, M. Panteli, E. Kyriakides and V. Terzija, "Intentional Controlled Islanding and Risk Assessment: A Unified Framework," IEEE Systems Journal., pp. 1-11, Oct. 2017. © 2017 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works

Adaptive Three-Stage Controlled Islanding to Prevent Imminent Wide-area Blackouts

Power blackouts are a recurring problem worldwide, and research in this area continues to focus on developing improved methods for their prediction and prevention. Controlled islanding has been proposed as a last resort action to save the network before imminent blackouts when the usual means fail in an unexpected manner. Successful controlled islanding has to deal with three important issues that are involved in the implementation of islanding: when to island, where to island and what to do after islanding is implemented in each island. This thesis presents a framework that combines all three issues to achieve successful islanding based on wide area measurement systems (WAMS). In addition, this thesis focuses on the question of when to island. This question is critical to the success of the three-stage controlled islanding scheme because the possible issues of false dismissal and false alarm have to be handled. In false dismissal, islanding is triggered too late. However, the potentially unstable system is still allowed to operate, and this unstable system, which could have survived, may cause uncontrolled cascading blackouts. In false alarm, islanding is triggered too early, and an originally stable system is forced to split into islands, resulting in unnecessary disruption and economic loss. Thus, the early recognition and identification of “the point of no return” before blackout is inevitable. The single machine equivalent (SIME) method is adopted online to predict transient stability during cascading outages that would shortly lead to blackouts, giving support in decisions about when to island in terms of transient instability. SIME also evaluates dynamic stability after islanding and ensures that the selected island candidates are stable before action is taken. Moreover, in this thesis, the power flow tracing-based method provides all possible islanding cutsets, and SIME helps to identify the one that has the best transient stability and minimal power flow disruption. If no possible island cut set exists, corrective actions through tripping critical generators or load shedding are undertaken in each island. The IEEE 10-generator, 39-busbar power system and 16-generator 68-busbar system are used to demonstrate the entire framework of the controlled islanding scheme. The performance of each methodology involved in each stage is then presented

A model-based reasoning architecture for system-level fault diagnosis

This dissertation presents a model-based reasoning architecture with a two fold purpose: to detect and classify component faults from observable system behavior, and to generate fault propagation models so as to make a more accurate estimation of current operational risks. It incorporates a novel approach to system level diagnostics by addressing the need to reason about low-level inaccessible components from observable high-level system behavior. In the field of complex system maintenance it can be invaluable as an aid to human operators. The first step is the compilation of the database of functional descriptions and associated fault-specific features for each of the system components. The system is then analyzed to extract structural information, which, in addition to the functional database, is used to create the structural and functional models. A fault-symptom matrix is constructed from the functional model and the features database. The fault threshold levels for these symptoms are founded on the nominal baseline data. Based on the fault-symptom matrix and these thresholds, a diagnostic decision tree is formulated in order to intelligently query about the system health. For each faulty candidate, a fault propagation tree is generated from the structural model. Finally, the overall system health status report includes both the faulty components and the associated at risk components, as predicted by the fault propagation model.Ph.D.Committee Chair: Vachtsevanos, George; Committee Member: Liang, Steven; Committee Member: Michaels, Thomas; Committee Member: Vela, Patricio; Committee Member: Wardi, Yora

Dagstuhl News January - December 1999

"Dagstuhl News" is a publication edited especially for the members of the Foundation "Informatikzentrum Schloss Dagstuhl" to thank them for their support. The News give a summary of the scientific work being done in Dagstuhl. Each Dagstuhl Seminar is presented by a small abstract describing the contents and scientific highlights of the seminar as well as the perspectives or challenges of the research topic

Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis of Cascading Outages in Power Systems

Interconnected power systems are prone to cascading outages leading to large-area blackouts. Modeling, simulation, analysis, and mitigation of cascading outages are still challenges for power system operators and planners.Firstly, the interaction model and interaction graph proposed by [27] are demonstrated on a realistic Northeastern Power Coordinating Council (NPCC) power system, identifying key links and components that contribute most to the propagation of cascading outages. Then a multi-layer interaction graph for analysis and mitigation of cascading outages is proposed. It provides a practical, comprehensive framework for prediction of outage propagation and decision making on mitigation strategies. It has multiple layers to respectively identify key links and components, which contribute the most to outage propagation. Based on the multi-layer interaction graph, effective mitigation strategies can be further developed. A three-layer interaction graph is constructed and demonstrated on the NPCC power system.Secondly, this thesis proposes a novel steady-state approach for simulating cascading outages. The approach employs a power flow-based model that considers static power-frequency characteristics of both generators and loads. Thus, the system frequency deviation can be calculated under cascading outages and control actions such as under-frequency load shedding can be simulated. Further, a new AC optimal power flow model considering frequency deviation (AC-OPFf) is proposed to simulate remedial control against system collapse. Case studies on the two-area, IEEE 39-bus, and NPCC power systems show that the proposed approach can more accurately capture the propagation of cascading outages when compared with a conventional approach using the conventional power flow and AC optimal power flow models.Thirdly, in order to reduce the potential risk caused by cascading outages, an online strategy of critical component-based active islanding is proposed. It is performed when any component belonging to a predefined set of critical components is involved in the propagation path. The set of critical components whose fail can cause large risk are identified based on the interaction graph. Test results on the NPCC power system show that the cascading outage risk can be reduced significantly by performing the proposed active islanding when compared with the risk of other scenarios without active islanding

Computing system reliability modeling, analysis, and optimization

Ph.DDOCTOR OF PHILOSOPH