A review of Central Asian glaciochemical data

The glaciers of central Asia provide suitable locations from which to recover continuous, high-resolution glaciochemical records on a continental scale. Although the glaciochemical investigations undertaken to date in central Asia are few in number and limited in terms of spatial coverage and length of record, some preliminary observations can be made concerning regional and seasonal trends in snow chemistry in this region. The sodium chloride ratio for most snow samples collected in central Asia approaches the ratio found in sea water (0.86 in /Leq kg-I ), reflecting a marine source for these constituents. Sodium and chloride concentrations are, on average, 3-10 times higher in the Himalayas than in the Karakoram, demonstrating the greater influence of monsoonal sources of moisture in the Himalayas. Very high sodium concentrations from Khel Khod Glacier probably reflect a local crustal source from surrounding ice-free areas. Low nitrate concentrations were found in snow collected from the southern margin of the Himalayas and high concentrations in snow deposited on the north margin of the Himalayas. This strong regional trend in the spatial distribution of nitrate suggests the influx of continental aerosols, rich in nitrate, originating from the arid regions of central Asia. High calcium concentrations measured in snow from Mount Everest and the north-west corner of China are also indicative of dust derived from the arid regions of central Asia. Very high sulfate concentrations found in snow from the Tien Shan and the Bogda Shan most likely reflect local anthropogenic sources. The altitude effect on isotopic composition is not apparent from snow samples collected in central Asia. Understanding the processes which control the chemical content of snow, the local-to-regional scale complexities, and the seasonal variability are fundamental steps necessary to assess the potential for recovering representative long-term glaciochemical records from central Asia

Projected Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Drought under Global Warming in Central Asia

Drought, one of the most common natural disasters that have the greatest impact on human social life, has been extremely challenging to accurately assess and predict. With global warming, it has become more important to make accurate drought predictions and assessments. In this study, based on climate model data provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), we used the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) to analyze and project drought characteristics and their trends under two global warming scenarios—1.5 °C and 2.0 °C—in Central Asia. The results showed a marked decline in the PDSI in Central Asia under the influence of global warming, indicating that the drought situation in Central Asia would further worsen under both warming scenarios. Under the 1.5 °C warming scenario, the PDSI in Central Asia decreased first and then increased, and the change time was around 2080, while the PDSI values showed a continuous decline after 2025 in the 2.0 °C warming scenario. Under the two warming scenarios, the spatial characteristics of dry and wet areas in Central Asia are projected to change significantly in the future. In the 1.5 °C warming scenario, the frequency of drought and the proportion of arid areas in Central Asia were significantly higher than those under the 2.0 °C warming scenario. Using the Thornthwaite (TH) formula to calculate the PDSI produced an overestimation of drought, and the Penman–Monteith (PM) formula is therefore recommended to calculate the index

Is it really different? Patterns of regionalisation in the post-Soviet Central Asia

While the regional economic integration encompassing the former Soviet Union (FSU) transpires to be inefficient, there appears to be a stronger interest in regionalism in smaller groups of more homogenous and geographically connected countries of the region, specifically, Central Asia. Using a new dataset, we find that although the economic links between the Central Asian countries are more pronounced than between that of the CIS in several key areas, this advantage has been disappearing fast over the last decade. In addition, the trend of economic integration of Central Asia strongly correlates to that of the CIS in general. Currently Central Asia should be treated as a sub-region of the post-Soviet world rather than a definite integration region.On the other hand, however, we find that Kazakhstan emerges as a new centre for regional integration, which can bear some potential for regionalism in Central Asia, and that there is an increasing trend towards greater economic interconnections with China in Central Asia. --regionalisation,economic integration,post-Soviet space,Central Asia

European Union Democracy Promotion and its impact on Civil Society in Central Asia

After a period of relatively small activity in this region, in 2007, the European Union offered a strategy for Central Asia. This strategy addressed many issues, including democratic deficit and human rights violations. The main obstacles to the implementation of the strategy are autocratic tendencies and corruption, the influence of neighbors strongly leaning towards autocracy and the post-Soviet legacy. Additionally, the EU’s activity is overshadowed by the US and has minimal capacity for pursuing its own policy toward Central Asia. Another problem is the fact that after implementing this EU strategy toward Central Asia there are no new initiatives which contribute to more visible European activity in that region

Assessing the Effectiveness of the EU’s and Russia’s Cultural Diplomacy towards Central Asia. EL-CSID Working Paper Issue 2018/9 • February 2018

This paper attempts to analyse the European Union’s (EU) cultural diplomacy (CD) efforts in five Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, hereinafter ‘Central Asia’). Beginning in the early 2000s, EU Member States looked at the region with increased interest. Aside from major engagements on trade, energy and security, education and intercultural dialogue were stressed as priority areas in the 2007 EU Strategy for Central Asia. To measure EU effectiveness as a CD actor in Central Asia, a comparative dimension is proposed by analysing the role Russia has pursued. At law and policy level, since Putin’s return to the Presidency in 2012, Russia has reaffirmed its ambitions to strengthen both hard and soft presence in Central Asia, viewing the region within its sphere of influence. This engagement was reiterated in the 2015 Strategy of National Security and in the 2016 Foreign Policy Concept. To draw a comparison, actors’ CD effectiveness is measured in terms of willingness, capacity, and acceptance, based on the theoretical framework proposed by Kingah, Amaya and Van Langenhove1. This paper finds that European CD efforts had mixed results due to an inconsistent policy towards the region. Although EU cultural heritage and educational influence are widely acknowledged, Russia remains today the major foreign actor in Central Asia, displaying strong levels of attractiveness among citizenry and elites. Historical and cultural ties, but also institutional and economic efforts allowed Moscow to keep its leading position. However, Russia’s future regional leadership should not be taken for granted, as all Central Asian states have been looking at Moscow’s cultural engagement with increased scepticism