Postseismic Deformation in the Northern Antarctic Peninsula Following the 2003 and 2013 Scotia Sea Earthquakes

Large earthquakes in the vicinity of Antarctica have the potential to cause postseismic viscoelastic deformation affecting measurements of displacement that are used to constrain models of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). In November 2013, a Mw 7.7 strike‐slip earthquake occurred in the Scotia Sea, 650 km from the Antarctic Peninsula. GPS time series from the northern Peninsula show a change in rate after this event, indicating a far‐field postseismic deformation signal is present. In this study, we use a finite element model with a suite of 1D and 3D Earth structures to investigate the extent of postseismic deformation in the Antarctic Peninsula. Model output is compared with GPS time series to place constraints on the Earth structure in this region. The preferred Earth structure has a thin lithosphere combined with a Burgers rheology with steady‐state viscosity of 4 × 1018 Pa s and transient viscosity one order of magnitude lower. Our study shows that including 3D Earth structure does not improve the fit. Using the best fitting Earth structure, we run a forward model of the nearby 2003 Mw 7.6 strike‐slip earthquake and combine the predictions for both earthquakes. We show that postseismic deformation is widespread across the northern Peninsula with rates of horizontal deformation up to 1.65 mm/yr for the period 2015–2020, a signal that persists for decades. These results suggest that much of Antarctica may be deforming due to recent postseismic deformation and this signal needs to be accounted for when using GPS observations to constrain geophysical models

The Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources (DISS), version 3: summarizing 20 years of research on Italy’s earthquake geology

This paper describes the main characteristics, the evolution, and the structure of the Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources (DISS) and particularly of its release of early 2007. The Database contains the results of the investigations of the active tectonics in Italy during the past 20 years. The first two sections of this paper document the recent evolution in mapping and archiving Italian active fault data in relation to important achievements in the understanding of Italian tectonics, some of which were spurred by significant earthquakes. The central sections describe the current structure of the Database, the reasons for its assumptions and data categories, its current contents, its evolution through several years of improvements. The last section describes how the current contents of the Database correspond with the existing strain and stress data available from focal mechanism, borehole breakout, and GPS data for the whole of Italy. The Database supplies a fresh and unified view of active and seismogenic processes in Italy by building on basic physical constraints concerning rates of crustal deformation, on the continuity of deformation belts and on the spatial relationships between adjacent faults, both at the surface and at depth

The time lag between deformation process and seismic activity in El Hierro Island during the eruptive process (2011-2014): a functional phased approach

On 10 October 2011, a submarine eruption occurred in El Hierro island. Thus, the eruptive process in the Canary islands was reactivated after 40 years of inactivity. The main objective of this work is to evaluate, using Functional Data Analysis, how the surface deformation phenomenon explains the seismic-volcanic activity in the island. The GNSS-GPS data are from the FRON (GRAFCAN) station, located in Frontera. These data measure, each 4 h, the distance between the FRON station and the reference station LPAL (La Palma island) from August, 2010 to December, 2013. In this study a functional correlation measure is employed to establish the relation between the deformation curve and the curve of cumulative energy released. The period of time analysed has been divided into four phases to avoid the mix of phenomena. For each phase, the correlation measure and the time lag between deformation curve and the curve of cumulative energy released have been estimated. These values show a strong relation between these curves. With respect to time lag period, the only significant lag, of about 1 month, occurred in Phase 1, which was after a long period without seismic activity. The later phases had very short, insignificant, lags. After a long period without seismic and volcanic activity in El Hierro island, the time lag between the deformation process and the beginning of the seismic activity takes approximately 1 month. In a similar situation a method to predict in real time the beginning of the seismic activity is proposed. This method, based on the changes produced in the derivative curves when there is a rapid descent in the deformation curve, could activate a warning system approximately 13 days before the beginning of seismicity

The Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources (DISS), version 3: summarizing 20 years of research on Italy’s earthquake geology

This paper describes the main characteristics, the evolution, and the current structure of the Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources (DISS) and particularly of its most recent release (version 3.0.2). The Database contains the results of the investigations of the active tectonics in Italy during the past 20 years. The first two sections of this paper document the recent evolution in mapping and archiving Italian active fault data in relation to important achievements in the understanding of Italian tectonics, some of which were spurred by significant earthquakes. The central sections describe the current structure of the Database, the reasons for its assumptions and data categories, its current contents, its evolution through several years of improvements. The last section describes how the current contents of the Database correspond with the existing strain and stress data available from focal mechanism, borehole breakout, and GPS data for the whole of Italy. The Database supplies a fresh and unified view of active and seismogenic processes in Italy by building on basic physical constraints concerning rates of crustal deformation, on the continuity of deformation belts and on the spatial relationships between adjacent faults, both at the surface and at depth

Transient Detection and Modeling of Continuous Geodetic Data

Transient surface deformation has been observed by continuously operating Global Positioning System stations in the Puget Sound area during the past decade. This surface deformation is associated with processes occurring on or near the subducting plate boundary between the Juan de Fuca and North American plates. This thesis is composed of two studies of transient deformation along the Cascadia plate margin and a discussion of the methodologies employed in these studies. We model one 7-week episode of transient deformation that occurred during 2003 beneath the Puget Sound area. Additionally, we utilize a combination of continuous Global Positioning System and seismic data to provide evidence for the occurrence of transient deformation in southern Cascadia. The remainder of the thesis focuses on the methodologies utilized in both identifying and modeling these episodes of transient deformation

Current motion on faults of the San Andreas system in central California inferred from recent GPS and terrestrial survey measurements

The San Andreas fault system of California comprises dominantly right-lateral strike-slip faults and forms part of the Pacific-North American plate boundary. This fault system has been studied extensively using geological and geophysical methods since it was first brought into prominence by the 1906 M = 8(^1)(_4) San Francisco earthquake. Observations of surface deformation thought to define an earthquake deformation cycle have been inferred from terrestrial and space-based geodetic methods. The observed relative motion in these networks has also been used to constrain the distribution of motion across the plate boundary. Sites in three profiles extending across the fault system in the San Francisco bay region were measured up to 7 times between March 1990 and February 1993 using the Global Positioning System (GPS). The data were processed using the Bernese V3.2 software. The GPS data were combined with trilateration and VLBI data to create a spatially dense sample of the deformation field in the region. Approximately 35±3 mm/yr of fault-parallel (N33ºW) shear is distributed across a deforming zone that increases in width northwards from 60 to 100 km and in style from fault-concentrated deformation in the south to near-linear trends in the north. No systematic convergence upon the fault is observed. Both two- and three-dimensional models of dislocations in an elastic half-space were used to model the deformation and to investigate the effects of structural complexities such as a low-rigidity fault zone, the depth to which surface creep extends, geometrical complexities of the fault system and along-strike variations in slip rate. The models produce a remarkably close fit to the deformation despite such a rheologically simple Earth structure. Approximately half of the observed deformation is accommodated along faults to the east of the San Andreas fault. A zone of concentrated deformation across the San Andreas fault zone in the north of the region may be the result of a 1-2 km wide low-rigidity fault zone there. Surface creep rates, although highly variable, appear to increase to the south. An increase in depth of the surface creep zone to the south may also accompany this. The variations in slip rate at depth along strike are consistent with connectivity between the major faults of the system. Quasi-steady slip on discrete fault planes or shear zones may occur down to 2-3 times the seismogenic depth and deformation rates are probably almost constant throughout much of the earthquake cycle. The present earthquake potential calculated from the estimated slip rates indicate that several fault segments may have an earthquake potential equivalent in magnitude to the "characteristic" earthquake assumed for that segment. The estimates of relative motion indicate that deformation across the San Andreas fault system, plus that observed to the east of the Sierra Nevada mountains, can account for all of the Pacific-North American plate motion rate

Coseismic Ground Deformation Reproduced through Numerical Modeling: A Parameter Sensitivity Analysis

Coseismic ground displacements detected through remote sensing surveys are often used to invert the coseismic slip distribution on geologically reliable fault planes. We analyze a well-known case study (2009 L’Aquila earthquake) to investigate how three-dimensional (3D) slip configuration affects coseismic ground surface deformation. Different coseismic slip surface configurations reconstructed using aftershocks distribution and coseismic cracks, were tested using 3D boundary element method numerical models. The models include two with slip patches that reach the surface and three models of blind normal-slip surfaces with different configurations of slip along shallowly-dipping secondary faults. We test the sensitivity of surface deformation to variations in stress drop and rock stiffness. We compare numerical models’ results with line of sight (LOS) surface deformation detected from differential SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) interferometry (DInSAR). The variations in fault configuration, rock stiffness and stress drop associated with the earthquake considerably impact the pattern of surface subsidence. In particular, the models with a coseismic slip patch that does not reach the surface have a better match to the line of sight coseismic surface deformation, as well as better match to the aftershock pattern, than models with rupture that reaches the surface. The coseismic slip along shallowly dipping secondary faults seems to provide a minor contribution toward surface deformation

Pre-Earthquake Ionospheric Perturbation Identification Using CSES Data \u3cem\u3evia\u3c/em\u3e Transfer Learning

During the lithospheric buildup to an earthquake, complex physical changes occur within the earthquake hypocenter. Data pertaining to the changes in the ionosphere may be obtained by satellites, and the analysis of data anomalies can help identify earthquake precursors. In this paper, we present a deep-learning model, SeqNetQuake, that uses data from the first China Seismo-Electromagnetic Satellite (CSES) to identify ionospheric perturbations prior to earthquakes. SeqNetQuake achieves the best performance [F-measure (F1) = 0.6792 and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) = 0.427] when directly trained on the CSES dataset with a spatial window centered on the earthquake epicenter with the Dobrovolsky radius and an input sequence length of 20 consecutive observations during night time. We further explore a transferring learning approach, which initially trains the model with the larger Electro-Magnetic Emissions Transmitted from the Earthquake Regions (DEMETER) dataset, and then tunes the model with the CSES dataset. The transfer-learning performance is substantially higher than that of direct learning, yielding a 12% improvement in the F1 score and a 29% improvement in the MCC value. Moreover, we compare the proposed model SeqNetQuake with other five benchmarking classifiers on an independent test set, which shows that SeqNetQuake demonstrates a 64.2% improvement in MCC and approximately a 24.5% improvement in the F1 score over the second-best convolutional neural network model. SeqNetSquake achieves significant improvement in identifying pre-earthquake ionospheric perturbation and improves the performance of earthquake prediction using the CSES data