Political Connections and Social Networks in Targeted Transfer Programmes: Evidence from Rural Ethiopia

In many developing countries, the beneficiaries of transfer programmes are determined by community-based processes, based on some general targeting rules related to needs. This opens the door for local social and political processes to impact on who gets access. Despite increasingly large scale social protection programmes in Africa, we have limited evidence on the political economy processes involved. We focus on Ethiopia were the local political authorities are in charge of food aid transfers. We investigate whether social networks and political connections matter for access. We find evidence for the hypothesis that the process results in the targeting of households that cannot easily rely on support from relatives or friends. On average, for each additional person the household can rely on in times of need, the probability of this household of obtaining food aid decreases with almost 1 percentage point. We also find strong evidence of political connections and favouritism. Households having close associates holding official positions have, ceteris paribus, more than 10 percent higher probability of obtaining free food than households that are not well connected with powerful households. We do not find evidence for the hypothesis that other social networks in the community influence the food aid allocation process. Finally, investigating reverse causality, we find no evidence that social and political networks are affected by the food aid transfer system.Food aid, transfers, political economy, Africa

Sources of BET

We investigate the sources of betting constructions, and specifically their predicates. The notion of risking something of value on an outcome is a complex one. Culturally, some degree of disposability of property is required. The concept is nevertheless lexicalized in many parts of the world. Betting takes various forms, ranging from betting between individuals, which we contend is the basic case, to betting in the context of an institution such as horse racing, cockfighting, lotteries, or on games such as card games. Taking a similar approach to Zalizniak (2008), we use polysemy as a means of investigating etymology. A sample of 271 polysemous predicates from 177 languages are surveyed, where one sense is BET. Treating relevant other senses as earlier senses, we find that the most frequent source concepts are ones that profile (in Langacker's 2008 sense) the relation between the bettor and the stake. The most frequent are SECURITY and PUT. Other important sources, profiling instead the relation between the bettors, are ARGUE, COMPETE and AGREE

Belief as Willingness to Bet

We investigate modal logics of high probability having two unary modal operators: an operator $K$ expressing probabilistic certainty and an operator $B$ expressing probability exceeding a fixed rational threshold $c\geq\frac 12$. Identifying knowledge with the former and belief with the latter, we may think of $c$ as the agent's betting threshold, which leads to the motto "belief is willingness to bet." The logic $\mathsf{KB.5}$ for $c=\frac 12$ has an $\mathsf{S5}$ $K$ modality along with a sub-normal $B$ modality that extends the minimal modal logic $\mathsf{EMND45}$ by way of four schemes relating $K$ and $B$, one of which is a complex scheme arising out of a theorem due to Scott. Lenzen was the first to use Scott's theorem to show that a version of this logic is sound and complete for the probability interpretation. We reformulate Lenzen's results and present them here in a modern and accessible form. In addition, we introduce a new epistemic neighborhood semantics that will be more familiar to modern modal logicians. Using Scott's theorem, we provide the Lenzen-derivative properties that must be imposed on finite epistemic neighborhood models so as to guarantee the existence of a probability measure respecting the neighborhood function in the appropriate way for threshold $c=\frac 12$. This yields a link between probabilistic and modal neighborhood semantics that we hope will be of use in future work on modal logics of qualitative probability. We leave open the question of which properties must be imposed on finite epistemic neighborhood models so as to guarantee existence of an appropriate probability measure for thresholds $c\neq\frac 12$.Comment: Removed date from v1 to avoid confusion on citation/reference, otherwise identical to v

A Dutch Book theorem for partial subjective probability

The aim of this paper is to show that partial probability can be justified from the standpoint of subjective probability in much the same way as classical probability does. The seminal works of Ramsey and De Finetti have furnished a method for assessing subjective probabilities: ask about the bets the decision-maker would be willing to place. So we introduce the concept of partial bet and partial Dutch Book and prove for partial probability a result similar to the Ramsey-De Finetti theorem. Finally, we make a comparison between two concepts of bet: we can bet our money on a sentence describing an event, or we can bet our money on the event itself, generally conceived as a set. These two ways of understanding a bet are equivalent in classical probability, but not in partial probability

THE ANALISIS OF THE BET-FI INDEX’S STATIC PROPERTIES

The financial sector of the Bucharest Stock Exchange, reflected in the BET-FI index, has gone through important changes during the last few years, becoming very attractive for the individual and institutional investors. This paper’s aim is to offer an analysis of the static proprieties of the BET-FI index and of the way the financial sector positioned in respect to the other sectors, as well as to the whole financial Romanian market. This will be done by a co-integration between the BET-FI index and the others indexes of the market (namely BET and BET-C).BET-FI index, distribution, informational efficiency

STS-8 bet results

The final Best Estimate Trajectory (BET) products, i.e., the reconstructed trajectory, the Extended BET, AEROBET and MMLE input files, generated for the eighth NASA Space Shuttle flight are documented. The reconstructed trajectory (inertial BET) for this Challenger flight, the first night landing is discussed. State (position, velocity, and attitude) plus three accelerometer scale factors were determined from fitting the Guam S-band data, seven C-band passes, and pseudo Doppler and altimeter during rollout on Runway 22. The anchor epoch utilized for the batch weighted-least-squares determination was Sept. 5, 1983 7h1m50s.0 (25310 GMT seconds). The spacecraft altitude at epoch is approx. 617 kft. IMU2 data were selected for the reconstruction