On Wargaming

Wargames are as old as civilization—and perhaps older. In his informative and entertaining Public Broadcasting series Connections, James Burke argued that the first invention, the one that enabled all later inventions, was the plow. It allowed agriculture, and as agriculture permitted denser populations, the frequency of inventions increased, due either to “connecting” with new applications or combining with other inventions to create one that was greater than the sum of its parts.https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/usnwc-newport-papers/1043/thumbnail.jp

Waiting for the energy crisis: Europe and the United States on the eve of the first oil shock

A global economic crisis is the most difficult kind of event to predict. This article asks a straightforward question: did anyone come close to anticipating the oil crisis of 1973/74, which represented a new type of historical sequence? Was the likelihood of an oil shock self-evident at the time? To answer this, I examine the degree of awareness in Europe and the United States of the three possible triggering factors: Egypt’s disposition to start a war and enlist the support of oil-producers; the Arab interest in oil conservation and long-term income maximization; and the imbalance in the oil market and the delayed adjustment of oil prices. For each of these topics, I set out both what was expected and what was actually in the offing; the information available to Western analysts and that unknown; the communication noises and the flagrant bias. The conclusion pays tribute to three men – James Akins, Pierre Wack, and Ted Newland – who had guessed what was coming ahead, and explains why their predictions almost succeeded, while others failed

Intelligent System for Generating and Analysis of Trading Recommendations on Financial Markets

Táto diplomová práca sa zaoberá predikciou a problematikou vývoja cien na finančných trhoch. Popisuje automatické obchodné systémy založené na technickej analýze a diskutuje možnosti použitia softcomputingu pri konštrukcií takýchto systémov. Diplomová práca okrem toho kombinuje bežné obchodné stratégie s fuzzy logikou. Praktická časť tejto práce obsahuje framework pre návrh, simuláciu a analýzu automatických obchodných stratégií. Príslušný simulátor je implementovaný v jazyku Java a založený na DEVS formalizme. Vďaka tomu framework umožnuje do obchodného modelu zahrnúť real-time komponenty. V diplomovej práci je obsiahnutá aj databáza historických finančných dát a nástroje pre jej automatickú synchronizáciu.This master thesis deals with the price prediction on financial markets. It describes automated trading systems based on technical analysis and discusses a soft computing approach to construction of such systems. Also, this thesis combines conventional trading strategies with the fuzzy logic. The practical part of this thesis contains also a framework for composing, simulation and analysis of the automated trading strategies. The simulator contained in this framework is implemented in the Java language and based on DEVS formalism. Because of this, there is a possibility to embed real-time components into the trading model. This work contains also a database of historical financial data and tools for their automatic actualization.

Strategic Latency Unleashed: The Role of Technology in a Revisionist Global Order and the Implications for Special Operations Forces

The article of record may be found at https://cgsr.llnl.govThis work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in part under Contract W-7405-Eng-48 and in part under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. The views and opinions of the author expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States government or Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC. ISBN-978-1-952565-07-6 LCCN-2021901137 LLNL-BOOK-818513 TID-59693This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in part under Contract W-7405-Eng-48 and in part under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. The views and opinions of the author expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States government or Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC. ISBN-978-1-952565-07-6 LCCN-2021901137 LLNL-BOOK-818513 TID-5969

Cryptocurrencies as a financial asset: a systematic analysis

This paper provides a systematic review of the empirical literature based on the major topics that have been associated with the market for cryptocurrencies since their development as a financial asset in 2009. Despite astonishing price appreciation in recent years, cryptocurrencies have been subjected to accusations of pricing bubbles central to the trilemma that exists between regulatory oversight, the potential for illicit use through its anonymity within a young under-developed exchange system, and infrastructural breaches influenced by the growth of cybercriminality. Each influences the perception of the role of cryptocurrencies as a credible investment asset class and legitimate of value

Strategic Options for Iran: Balancing Pressure with Diplomacy

This third report from The Iran Project, considers the successes, shortfalls, and risks of strategies designed to pressure the Iranian government into changing its policies. It explores some of the advantages and disadvantages for U.S. interests in the Middle East that might flow from bilateral negotiations with Iran to achieve a nuclear deal, and propose steps that the President might take to establish a framework for direct talks with Iran's leadership that would build on the latest round of multilateral negotiations and proposals. Iran's actions -- particularly with regard to its nuclear program -- pose complex and dangerous challenges to U.S. interests and security, as well as to the security of Israel and possibly to stability in the Middle East. This paper sets out a response to these serious challenges. A strengthened U.S. diplomatic initiative would not replace the pressure track; rather, it would build on pressure already applied. Some measure of sanctions relief will have to be offered as part of a negotiated settlement; but pressure should not be eased without firm and verifiable Iranian commitments to greater transparency and agreed limits on Iran's nuclear program. The proposed bilateral discussions between the U.S. and Iran would not replace the multilateral negotiations that are now underway. Bilateral talks would have to proceed on a basis understood and ideally supported by the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, plus Germany) and U.S. allies. This paper differs from earlier Iran Project publications in that it takes policy positions and makes recommendations for government action. The authors have sought to base these suggestions on factual, objective, nonpartisan analyses, consulting with nearly 20 former government officials and experts and seeking advice from a larger group of signatories

The institutional factors of strategic development and the tactical regulation of nanotechnology

The analysis of influence of institutional factors on development of technologies is carried out. The generating role of institutions in technological progress is proved. The general logic of an institutionalization of new technological way is presented on an example of nanotechnologies. Institutes are the “weak link” of the concepts and theories of the evolution of technology and technological structures. Most modern theorists of evolutionary economics are focused mainly on the study of the dynamics and forms of scientific and technological progress, especially the mechanisms of nucleation and diffusion of large “clusters” of innovation. In their turn, the institutional economists have concentrated on the analysis of factors and ways to minimize the transaction costs sustained interaction of agents and their organizations “in the high-tech world with a huge degree of specialization and division of labor other than impersonal exchange” (North 1997). In their works only relate to the institutional structure and infrastructure of innovative development, although, as noted by Nelson (2002), the concept of national and regional innovation systems is institutional in nature just on this fact is rarely emphasizes the attention of scientists. As a result, institutional forms and mechanisms of technological evolution is very poorly understood, and their analysis is based on very general ideas about the institutes and institutions.peer-reviewe

Ten Years In: Implementing Strategic Approaches to Cyberspace

This book represents a look beyond theories and analogies to examine the challenges of strategy implementation. In the essays that follow, practitioners who are building cyberspace forces at-scale join scholars who study power and force in this new domain to collectively offer a unique perspective on the evolution and future of cyber strategy and operations.https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/usnwc-newport-papers/1044/thumbnail.jp