A Review of Accelerated Test Models

Engineers in the manufacturing industries have used accelerated test (AT) experiments for many decades. The purpose of AT experiments is to acquire reliability information quickly. Test units of a material, component, subsystem or entire systems are subjected to higher-than-usual levels of one or more accelerating variables such as temperature or stress. Then the AT results are used to predict life of the units at use conditions. The extrapolation is typically justified (correctly or incorrectly) on the basis of physically motivated models or a combination of empirical model fitting with a sufficient amount of previous experience in testing similar units. The need to extrapolate in both time and the accelerating variables generally necessitates the use of fully parametric models. Statisticians have made important contributions in the development of appropriate stochastic models for AT data [typically a distribution for the response and regression relationships between the parameters of this distribution and the accelerating variable(s)], statistical methods for AT planning (choice of accelerating variable levels and allocation of available test units to those levels) and methods of estimation of suitable reliability metrics. This paper provides a review of many of the AT models that have been used successfully in this area.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/088342306000000321 in the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Calculating Biological Behaviors of Epigenetic States in Phage lambda Life Cycle

Gene regulatory network of lambda phage is one the best studied model systems in molecular biology. More 50 years of experimental study has provided a tremendous amount of data at all levels: physics, chemistry, DNA, protein, and function. However, its stability and robustness for both wild type and mutants has been a notorious theoretical/mathematical problem. In this paper we report our successful calculation on the properties of this gene regulatory network. We believe it is of its first kind. Our success is of course built upon numerous previous theoretical attempts, but following 3 features make our modeling uniqu: 1) A new modeling method particular suitable for stability and robustness study; 2) Paying a close attention to the well-known difference of in vivo and in vitro; 3) Allowing more important role for noise and stochastic effect to play. The last two points have been discussed by two of us (Ao and Yin, cond-mat/0307747), which we believe would be enough to make some of previous theoretical attempts successful, too. We hope the present work would stimulate a further interest in the emerging field of gene regulatory network.Comment: 16 pages, 3 figures, 1 tabl

A practical contribution to quantitative accelerated testing of multi-failure mode products under multiple stresses

La mise en place d'un programme de tests accélérés (AT) est accompagnée de plusieurs préoccupations et incertitudes quant à l'estimation de la fiabilité qui peut causer un écart par rapport au service réel. Cette thèse vise à présenter les outils nécessaires et auxiliaires antérieurs aux tests, ainsi qu'à proposer des approches techniques et des analyses pour la mise en oeuvre de tests accélérés pour l'estimation de la fiabilité, la cornparaison de produits, l'identification des modes de défaillances critiques ainsi que la vérification de l'amélioration de la fiabilité (après modification de la conception). Tout programme de tests accélérés doit faire l'objet d'une investigation économique, de même que la similitude entre tests et modes de défaillances doit être vérifiée. L'existence de variables aléatoires dans le service en utilisant le profil et le temps de défaillance dans les tests accélérés sont les causes de l'incertitude pour estimer la fiabilité qui doit être résolu numériquement. La plupart des programmes de tests de dégradation accélérés ont été mis en oeuvre à des fins qualitatives et d'analyse de comparaison, de sorte que le concept de tests de dégradation accélérés doivent être étendus et généralisés au cas de produits sujets à de multiples modes de défaillance, avec ou sans modes de défaillance dépendants. Si des échantillons, neufs ou usagés, d'un produit sont disponibles; la méthode de vieillissement partielle est proposée afin de diminuer considérablement le temps de test

Detection of Interconnect Failure Precursors using RF Impedance Analysis

Many failures in electronics result from the loss of electrical continuity of common board-level interconnects such as solder joints. Measurement methods based on DC resistance such as event detectors and data-loggers have long been used by the electronics industry to monitor the reliability of interconnects during reliability testing. DC resistance is well-suited for characterizing electrical continuity, such as identifying an open circuit, but it is not useful for detecting a partially degraded interconnect. Degradation of interconnects, such as cracking of solder joints due to fatigue or shock loading, usually initiates at an exterior surface and propagates towards the interior. A partially degraded interconnect can cause the RF impedance to increase due to the skin effect, a phenomenon wherein signal propagation at frequencies above several hundred MHz is concentrated at the surface of a conductor. Therefore, RF impedance exhibits greater sensitivity compared to DC resistance in detecting early stages of interconnect degradation and provides a means to prevent and predict an important cause of electronics failures. This research identifies the applicability of RF impedance as a means of a failure precursor that allows for prognostics on interconnect degradation based on electrical measurement. It also compares the ability of RF impedance with that of DC resistance to detect early stages of interconnect degradation, and to predict the remaining life of an interconnect. To this end, RF impedance and DC resistance of a test circuit were simultaneously monitored during interconnect stress testing. The test vehicle included an impedance-controlled circuit board on which a surface mount component was soldered using two solder joints at the end terminations. During stress testing, the RF impedance exhibited a gradual non-linear increase in response to the early stages of solder joint cracking while the DC resistance remained constant. The gradual increase in RF impedance was trended using prognostic algorithms in order to predict the time to failure of solder joints. This prognostic approach successfully predicted solder joint remaining life with a prediction error of less than 3%. Furthermore, it was demonstrated both theoretically and experimentally that the RF impedance analysis was able to distinguish between two competing interconnect failure mechanisms: solder joint cracking and pad cratering. These results indicate that RF impedance provides reliable interconnect failure precursors that can be used to predict interconnect failures. Since the performance of high speed devices is adversely affected by early stages of interconnect degradation, RF impedance analysis has the potential to provide improved reliability assessment for these devices, as well as accurate failure prediction for current and future electronics

Corrosion Damage Analysis and Material Characterization of Sherman and Centaur - The Historic Military Tanks

A study of corrosion damage and material characterization of two historic military tanks, the Sherman and Centaur is reported. Experiments were conducted to analyse surface corrosion and corrosion propagation from surface to sub-surface. Significant surface corrosion was found, this phenomenon was further facilitated by delamination failure mechanisms. Corrosion depth for the Sherman was approximately 110 µm, where sulphide inclusions were detected in the sub-surface analysis. The Centaur’s analysis showed corrosion pits at 100 µm depth. These pits possess random geometrical configurations with evidence of sulfur, sodium and calcium

Active thermography for the investigation of corrosion in steel surfaces

The present work aims at developing an experimental methodology for the analysis of corrosion phenomena of steel surfaces by means of Active Thermography (AT), in reflexion configuration (RC). The peculiarity of this AT approach consists in exciting by means of a laser source the sound surface of the specimens and acquiring the thermal signal on the same surface, instead of the corroded one: the thermal signal is then composed by the reflection of the thermal wave reflected by the corroded surface. This procedure aims at investigating internal corroded surfaces like in vessels, piping, carters etc. Thermal tests were performed in Step Heating and Lock-In conditions, by varying excitation parameters (power, time, number of pulse, ….) to improve the experimental set up. Surface thermal profiles were acquired by an IR thermocamera and means of salt spray testing; at set time intervals the specimens were investigated by means of AT. Each duration corresponded to a surface damage entity and to a variation in the thermal response. Thermal responses of corroded specimens were related to the corresponding corrosion level, referring to a reference specimen without corrosion. The entity of corrosion was also verified by a metallographic optical microscope to measure the thickness variation of the specimens

A probabilistic fracture mechanics model for the tubing degradation of the Koeberg steam generators

Includes bibliographical references (leaves 115-124).The susceptibility of Steam Generator (SG) Tubes (particularly tubes manufactured from Inconel 600) to primary water stress corrosion cracking (PWSCC) has been a major concern to the nuclear industry since 1971, when this phenomenon was first observed outside the laboratory. Since the susceptibility of Inconel 600 to PWSCC in pure water was first established as a certainty, various electricity utilities have devoted considerable resources to determining the exact nature of this degradation phenomenon and to predicting its consequences. Whereas, the study of the nature of this degradation mechanism has led to many conflicting conclusions, the predictive methods developed have been more successful. Initially, the establishment of the Leak Before Risk of Break principle has allowed various utilities to justify SG operation with cracked tubes. Later, the development of probabilistic simulation methods, most notably by EdF and the Jozef Stefan Institute (JSI), have led to further justification of the existing maintenance regimes and also allowed the ability to do sensitivity studies with regards to various influencing parameters. The current maintenance regime at the Koeberg Nuclear Power Station (near Cape Town, South Africa) utilises tube plugging (when cracks exceed a certain length limit) and online leak detection (based on detection of radioactive Nitrogen 16) as the main means of ensuring safe SG operation. However, the plugging limit used is based on a conservative deterministic analysis, which may be penalising in some situations. Thus, the need for risk-based SG life-time optimisation was evident