Decision Support Systems for Risk Assessment in Credit Operations Against Collateral

With the global economic crisis, which reached its peak in the second half of 2008, and before a market shaken by economic instability, financial institutions have taken steps to protect the banks’ default risks, which had an impact directly in the form of analysis in credit institutions to individuals and to corporate entities. To mitigate the risk of banks in credit operations, most banks use a graded scale of customer risk, which determines the provision that banks must do according to the default risk levels in each credit transaction. The credit analysis involves the ability to make a credit decision inside a scenario of uncertainty and constant changes and incomplete transformations. This ability depends on the capacity to logically analyze situations, often complex and reach a clear conclusion, practical and practicable to implement. Credit Scoring models are used to predict the probability of a customer proposing to credit to become in default at any given time, based on his personal and financial information that may influence the ability of the client to pay the debt. This estimated probability, called the score, is an estimate of the risk of default of a customer in a given period. This increased concern has been in no small part caused by the weaknesses of existing risk management techniques that have been revealed by the recent financial crisis and the growing demand for consumer credit.The constant change affects several banking sections because it prevents the ability to investigate the data that is produced and stored in computers that are too often dependent on manual techniques. Among the many alternatives used in the world to balance this risk, the provision of guarantees stands out of guarantees in the formalization of credit agreements. In theory, the collateral does not ensure the credit return, as it is not computed as payment of the obligation within the project. There is also the fact that it will only be successful if triggered, which involves the legal area of the banking institution. The truth is, collateral is a mitigating element of credit risk. Collaterals are divided into two types, an individual guarantee (sponsor) and the asset guarantee (fiduciary). Both aim to increase security in credit operations, as an payment alternative to the holder of credit provided to the lender, if possible, unable to meet its obligations on time. For the creditor, it generates liquidity security from the receiving operation. The measurement of credit recoverability is a system that evaluates the efficiency of the collateral invested return mechanism. In an attempt to identify the sufficiency of collateral in credit operations, this thesis presents an assessment of smart classifiers that uses contextual information to assess whether collaterals provide for the recovery of credit granted in the decision-making process before the credit transaction become insolvent. The results observed when compared with other approaches in the literature and the comparative analysis of the most relevant artificial intelligence solutions, considering the classifiers that use guarantees as a parameter to calculate the risk contribute to the advance of the state of the art advance, increasing the commitment to the financial institutions.Com a crise econômica global, que atingiu seu auge no segundo semestre de 2008, e diante de um mercado abalado pela instabilidade econômica, as instituições financeiras tomaram medidas para proteger os riscos de inadimplência dos bancos, medidas que impactavam diretamente na forma de análise nas instituições de crédito para pessoas físicas e jurídicas. Para mitigar o risco dos bancos nas operações de crédito, a maioria destas instituições utiliza uma escala graduada de risco do cliente, que determina a provisão que os bancos devem fazer de acordo com os níveis de risco padrão em cada transação de crédito. A análise de crédito envolve a capacidade de tomar uma decisão de crédito dentro de um cenário de incerteza e mudanças constantes e transformações incompletas. Essa aptidão depende da capacidade de analisar situações lógicas, geralmente complexas e de chegar a uma conclusão clara, prática e praticável de implementar. Os modelos de Credit Score são usados para prever a probabilidade de um cliente propor crédito e tornar-se inadimplente a qualquer momento, com base em suas informações pessoais e financeiras que podem influenciar a capacidade do cliente de pagar a dívida. Essa probabilidade estimada, denominada pontuação, é uma estimativa do risco de inadimplência de um cliente em um determinado período. A mudança constante afeta várias seções bancárias, pois impede a capacidade de investigar os dados que são produzidos e armazenados em computadores que frequentemente dependem de técnicas manuais. Entre as inúmeras alternativas utilizadas no mundo para equilibrar esse risco, destacase o aporte de garantias na formalização dos contratos de crédito. Em tese, a garantia não “garante” o retorno do crédito, já que não é computada como pagamento da obrigação dentro do projeto. Tem-se ainda, o fato de que esta só terá algum êxito se acionada, o que envolve a área jurídica da instituição bancária. A verdade é que, a garantia é um elemento mitigador do risco de crédito. As garantias são divididas em dois tipos, uma garantia individual (patrocinadora) e a garantia do ativo (fiduciário). Ambos visam aumentar a segurança nas operações de crédito, como uma alternativa de pagamento ao titular do crédito fornecido ao credor, se possível, não puder cumprir suas obrigações no prazo. Para o credor, gera segurança de liquidez a partir da operação de recebimento. A mensuração da recuperabilidade do crédito é uma sistemática que avalia a eficiência do mecanismo de retorno do capital investido em garantias. Para tentar identificar a suficiência das garantias nas operações de crédito, esta tese apresenta uma avaliação dos classificadores inteligentes que utiliza informações contextuais para avaliar se as garantias permitem prever a recuperação de crédito concedido no processo de tomada de decisão antes que a operação de crédito entre em default. Os resultados observados quando comparados com outras abordagens existentes na literatura e a análise comparativa das soluções de inteligência artificial mais relevantes, mostram que os classificadores que usam garantias como parâmetro para calcular o risco contribuem para o avanço do estado da arte, aumentando o comprometimento com as instituições financeiras

Survey on Leveraging Uncertainty Estimation Towards Trustworthy Deep Neural Networks: The Case of Reject Option and Post-training Processing

Although neural networks (especially deep neural networks) have achieved \textit{better-than-human} performance in many fields, their real-world deployment is still questionable due to the lack of awareness about the limitation in their knowledge. To incorporate such awareness in the machine learning model, prediction with reject option (also known as selective classification or classification with abstention) has been proposed in literature. In this paper, we present a systematic review of the prediction with the reject option in the context of various neural networks. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study focusing on this aspect of neural networks. Moreover, we discuss different novel loss functions related to the reject option and post-training processing (if any) of network output for generating suitable measurements for knowledge awareness of the model. Finally, we address the application of the rejection option in reducing the prediction time for the real-time problems and present a comprehensive summary of the techniques related to the reject option in the context of extensive variety of neural networks. Our code is available on GitHub: \url{https://github.com/MehediHasanTutul/Reject_option

Biometric Systems

Biometric authentication has been widely used for access control and security systems over the past few years. The purpose of this book is to provide the readers with life cycle of different biometric authentication systems from their design and development to qualification and final application. The major systems discussed in this book include fingerprint identification, face recognition, iris segmentation and classification, signature verification and other miscellaneous systems which describe management policies of biometrics, reliability measures, pressure based typing and signature verification, bio-chemical systems and behavioral characteristics. In summary, this book provides the students and the researchers with different approaches to develop biometric authentication systems and at the same time includes state-of-the-art approaches in their design and development. The approaches have been thoroughly tested on standard databases and in real world applications

How Secure Are Good Loans: Validating Loan-Granting Decisions And Predicting Default Rates On Consumer Loans

The failure or success of the banking industry depends largely on the industrys ability to properly evaluate credit risk. In the consumer-lending context, the banks goal is to maximize income by issuing as many good loans to consumers as possible while avoiding losses associated with bad loans. Mistakes could severely affect profits because the losses associated with one bad loan may undermine the income earned on many good loans. Therefore banks carefully evaluate the financial status of each customer as well as their credit worthiness and weigh them against the banks internal loan-granting policies. Recognizing that even a small improvement in credit scoring accuracy translates into significant future savings, the banking industry and the scientific community have been employing various machine learning and traditional statistical techniques to improve credit risk prediction accuracy.This paper examines historical data from consumer loans issued by a financial institution to individuals that the financial institution deemed to be qualified customers. The data consists of the financial attributes of each customer and includes a mixture of loans that the customers paid off and defaulted upon. The paper uses three different data mining techniques (decision trees, neural networks, logit regression) and the ensemble model, which combines the three techniques, to predict whether a particular customer defaulted or paid off his/her loan. The paper then compares the effectiveness of each technique and analyzes the risk of default inherent in each loan and group of loans. The data mining classification techniques and analysis can enable banks to more precisely classify consumers into various credit risk groups. Knowing what risk group a consumer falls into would allow a bank to fine tune its lending policies by recognizing high risk groups of consumers to whom loans should not be issued, and identifying safer loans that should be issued, on terms commensurate with the risk of default

Pattern Recognition

Pattern recognition is a very wide research field. It involves factors as diverse as sensors, feature extraction, pattern classification, decision fusion, applications and others. The signals processed are commonly one, two or three dimensional, the processing is done in real- time or takes hours and days, some systems look for one narrow object class, others search huge databases for entries with at least a small amount of similarity. No single person can claim expertise across the whole field, which develops rapidly, updates its paradigms and comprehends several philosophical approaches. This book reflects this diversity by presenting a selection of recent developments within the area of pattern recognition and related fields. It covers theoretical advances in classification and feature extraction as well as application-oriented works. Authors of these 25 works present and advocate recent achievements of their research related to the field of pattern recognition

Probabilistic multiple kernel learning

The integration of multiple and possibly heterogeneous information sources for an overall decision-making process has been an open and unresolved research direction in computing science since its very beginning. This thesis attempts to address parts of that direction by proposing probabilistic data integration algorithms for multiclass decisions where an observation of interest is assigned to one of many categories based on a plurality of information channels

Pattern Recognition

A wealth of advanced pattern recognition algorithms are emerging from the interdiscipline between technologies of effective visual features and the human-brain cognition process. Effective visual features are made possible through the rapid developments in appropriate sensor equipments, novel filter designs, and viable information processing architectures. While the understanding of human-brain cognition process broadens the way in which the computer can perform pattern recognition tasks. The present book is intended to collect representative researches around the globe focusing on low-level vision, filter design, features and image descriptors, data mining and analysis, and biologically inspired algorithms. The 27 chapters coved in this book disclose recent advances and new ideas in promoting the techniques, technology and applications of pattern recognition

Signal and data processing for machine olfaction and chemical sensing: A review

Signal and data processing are essential elements in electronic noses as well as in most chemical sensing instruments. The multivariate responses obtained by chemical sensor arrays require signal and data processing to carry out the fundamental tasks of odor identification (classification), concentration estimation (regression), and grouping of similar odors (clustering). In the last decade, important advances have shown that proper processing can improve the robustness of the instruments against diverse perturbations, namely, environmental variables, background changes, drift, etc. This article reviews the advances made in recent years in signal and data processing for machine olfaction and chemical sensing

Optimising multimodal fusion for biometric identification systems

Biometric systems are automatic means for imitating the human brain’s ability of identifying and verifying other humans by their behavioural and physiological characteristics. A system, which uses more than one biometric modality at the same time, is known as a multimodal system. Multimodal biometric systems consolidate the evidence presented by multiple biometric sources and typically provide better recognition performance compared to systems based on a single biometric modality. This thesis addresses some issues related to the implementation of multimodal biometric identity verification systems. The thesis assesses the feasibility of using commercial offthe-shelf products to construct deployable multimodal biometric system. It also identifies multimodal biometric fusion as a challenging optimisation problem when one considers the presence of several configurations and settings, in particular the verification thresholds adopted by each biometric device and the decision fusion algorithm implemented for a particular configuration. The thesis proposes a novel approach for the optimisation of multimodal biometric systems based on the use of genetic algorithms for solving some of the problems associated with the different settings. The proposed optimisation method also addresses some of the problems associated with score normalization. In addition, the thesis presents an analysis of the performance of different fusion rules when characterising the system users as sheep, goats, lambs and wolves. The results presented indicate that the proposed optimisation method can be used to solve the problems associated with threshold settings. This clearly demonstrates a valuable potential strategy that can be used to set a priori thresholds of the different biometric devices before using them. The proposed optimisation architecture addressed the problem of score normalisation, which makes it an effective “plug-and-play” design philosophy to system implementation. The results also indicate that the optimisation approach can be used for effectively determining the weight settings, which is used in many applications for varying the relative importance of the different performance parameters

Mitigating the effect of covariates in face recognition

Current face recognition systems capture faces of cooperative individuals in controlled environment as part of the face recognition process. It is therefore possible to control lighting, pose, background, and quality of images. However, in a real world application, we have to deal with both ideal and imperfect data. Performance of current face recognition systems is affected for such non-ideal and challenging cases. This research focuses on designing algorithms to mitigate the effect of covariates in face recognition.;To address the challenge of facial aging, an age transformation algorithm is proposed that registers two face images and minimizes the aging variations. Unlike the conventional method, the gallery face image is transformed with respect to the probe face image and facial features are extracted from the registered gallery and probe face images. The variations due to disguises cause change in visual perception, alter actual data, make pertinent facial information disappear, mask features to varying degrees, or introduce extraneous artifacts in the face image. To recognize face images with variations due to age progression and disguises, a granular face verification approach is designed which uses dynamic feed-forward neural architecture to extract 2D log polar Gabor phase features at different granularity levels. The granular levels provide non-disjoint spatial information which is combined using the proposed likelihood ratio based Support Vector Machine match score fusion algorithm. The face verification algorithm is validated using five face databases including the Notre Dame face database, FG-Net face database and three disguise face databases.;The information in visible spectrum images is compromised due to improper illumination whereas infrared images provide invariance to illumination and expression. A multispectral face image fusion algorithm is proposed to address the variations in illumination. The Support Vector Machine based image fusion algorithm learns the properties of the multispectral face images at different resolution and granularity levels to determine optimal information and combines them to generate a fused image. Experiments on the Equinox and Notre Dame multispectral face databases show that the proposed algorithm outperforms existing algorithms. We next propose a face mosaicing algorithm to address the challenge due to pose variations. The mosaicing algorithm generates a composite face image during enrollment using the evidence provided by frontal and semiprofile face images of an individual. Face mosaicing obviates the need to store multiple face templates representing multiple poses of a users face image. Experiments conducted on three different databases indicate that face mosaicing offers significant benefits by accounting for the pose variations that are commonly observed in face images.;Finally, the concept of online learning is introduced to address the problem of classifier re-training and update. A learning scheme for Support Vector Machine is designed to train the classifier in online mode. This enables the classifier to update the decision hyperplane in order to account for the newly enrolled subjects. On a heterogeneous near infrared face database, the case study using Principal Component Analysis and C2 feature algorithms shows that the proposed online classifier significantly improves the verification performance both in terms of accuracy and computational time