Soldier system assessment under uncertainty with evidential reasoning

Along with the increasing of new equipment based capabilities, the physiological burden on the dismounted soldier keeps on growing, which leads to the limitation in the quantity and types of missions that can be carried out. In this research, a methodology is developed to solve the burden problem from the system assessment point of view. Comparing with other relevant research, the new methodology not only provides quantitative performance estimate of the soldier with the capability of handling fragmentary and incomplete data with hybrid format in nature (qualitative and quantitative), but also restrains the assessment complexity to an acceptable level

A double interaction-based financing group decisionmaking framework considering uncertain information and inconsistent assessment

Financing group decision-making (FGDM), which is an important stage of project financing, has unique characteristics: large investments and long payback horizons. Its evaluation results are likely to be distorted if we ignore the uncertain information and inconsistent assessment during the decision-making process. In this study, we propose a double interaction-based FGDM framework under uncertain information and inconsistent assessment. We modify the weight setting of evidence reasoning and aggregation method of probabilistic linguistic term sets to process the above two issues. The proposed framework is applied in a detailed case study analysis to display its effectiveness and stability. We expect the double interaction-based group decision-making framework under uncertain information and inconsistent assessment to be a useful tool to understand FGDM processes

Hybrid-fuzzy techniques with flexibility and attitudinal parameters for supporting early product design and reliability management

The main aim of the research work presented in this thesis is to define and develop novel Hybrid Fuzzy-based techniques for supporting aspects of product development engineering, specifically product reliability at the early phase of product design under the design for reliability philosophy and concept designs assessment problems when the required information is rough and incomplete. Thus, to achieve the above-stated aim, which has been formulated in the effort to filling the identified gaps in the literature which comprise of the need for a holistic, flexible and adjustable method to facilitate and support product design concept assessment and product reliability at the early product design phase. The need for the incorporation of the attitudinal character of the DMs into the product reliability and design concept assessment and finally, the need to account for the several interrelated complex attributes in the product reliability and design concept assessment process. A combination of research methods has been employed which includes an extensive literature review, multiple case study approach, and personal interview of experts, through which data were, collected that provided information for the real-life case study. With the new Hybrid Fuzzy-based techniques (i.e. the intuitionistic fuzzy TOPSIS model which is based on an exponential-related function (IF-TOPSISEF) and the Multi-attribute group decision-making (MAGDM) method which is based on a generalized triangular intuitionistic fuzzy geometric averaging (GTIFGA) operator), a more robust method for the product reliability and design concepts assessment respectively have been achieved as displayed in the comparative analysis in the thesis. The new methods have provided a more complete and a holistic view of the assessment process, by looking at the product reliability and design concept assessment from different scenario depending on the interest of the DMs. Using the above methods, the thesis has been able to evaluated some complex mechanical systems in literature and in real-life including Crawler Crane Machine and Forklift Truck for design change with the purpose of gaining appropriate reliability knowledge and information needed at the early product design phase, and that can subsequently aid and improve the product design concepts after all such useful information have been added into the new design. With the application of the new methods, and their proven feasibility and rationality as displayed in the assessment results of the complex mechanical systems in literature and that of the real-life case studies, this thesis, therefore, can conclude that the Hybrid Fuzzy-based techniques proposed, has provided a better and a novel alternative to existing product reliability and design concepts assessment methods

Interval Certitude Rule Base Inference Method using the Evidential Reasoning

Development of rule-based systems is an important research area for artificial intelligence and decision making, as rule base is one of the most general purpose forms for expressing human knowledge. In this paper, a new rule-based representation and its inference method based on evidential reasoning are presented based on operational research and fuzzy set theory. In this rule base, the uncertainties of human knowledge and human judgment are designed with interval certitude degrees which are embedded in the antecedent terms and consequent terms. The knowledge representation and inference framework offer an improvement of the recently developed rule base inference method, and the evidential reasoning approach is still applied to the rule fusion. It is noteworthy that the uncertainties will be defined and modeled using interval certitude degrees. In the end, an illustrative example is provided to illustrate the proposed knowledge representation and inference method as well as demonstrate its effectiveness by comparing with some existing approaches

A novel model for the quantitative evaluation of green port development - A case study of major ports in China

Environmental problems that seriously affect both natural systems and social development of human beings have drawn extensive attention from governing authorities all around the world, and become an urgent issue to be addressed. Ports play a significant role in the international shipping which inevitably influence the global environment. Thus, the concept of green port is developed to mitigate the negative impacts of inappropriate port operations on environment. This paper analyzes the current status of green port development worldwide. An evaluation model for quantitative measurement of green port development is established based on the Drivers, Pressures, States, Impacts and Responses (DPSIR) framework. The weight of each index composing the evaluation model is calculated through an analytical hierarchy process method, and the evaluation results of the investigated ports with respect to each index are aggregated using an evidential reasoning approach. The evaluation model is further demonstrated through a comparative analysis of five major ports in China. The novel model developed along with the methods applied in this paper can provide significant insights for the comparative evaluation on the development of green ports in other countries and/or regions, as well as a powerful tool to conduct self-assessment of green port development. © 2017 Elsevier Ltd

Use of fuzzy rule-based evidential reasoning approach in the navigational risk assessment of inland waterway transportation systems

A novel approach incorporating a fuzzy rule base technique and an Evidential Reasoning (ER) algorithm is applied to conduct the navigational risk assessment of an Inland Waterway Transportation System (IWTS). A hierarchical structure for modeling IWTS hazards (hazard identification model) is first constructed taking into account both qualitative and quantitative criteria. The quantitative criteria are converted to qualitative ones by applying a fuzzy rule-based quantitative data transformation technique, which enables the use of ER to synthesize the risk estimates from the bottom to the top along the hierarchy. Intelligent Decision System (IDS) Software is used for facilitating risk synthesis and estimation. The proposed method is tested in a case study to compare the navigational safety levels of three different regions in the Yangtze River

Modelo de avaliação e desenvolvimento de produtos para uma empresa de fogões

Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Centro Tecnológico, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia de Produção, Florianópolis, 2013.A presença dos fogões nos lares brasileiros, aliada ao fato do contínuo crescimento do setor, aumentou a competição nesse mercado nos últimos anos. Logo as empresas que oferecerem produtos, adaptados ás necessidades dos consumidores e que comercializá-los mais rapidamente e mais eficientemente do que seus concorrentes estarão em melhor posição para criar uma vantagem competitiva sustentável. Sendo assim, é importante para a empresa, fazer a avaliação dos seus produtos e da concorrência, e dessa forma obter conhecimentos para fidelizar o consumidor quando este decidir comprar um novo fogão. O objetivo do presente trabalho consiste em desenvolver um modelo de Avaliação de Desempenho de Fogões que reflita os valores e preferências do decisor, de forma a fornecer-lhe o apoio na tomada de decisões. Trata-se de um estudo de caso, exploratório e de natureza prática, que segue uma abordagem quali-quantitativa. Para atender ao objetivo, foi utilizado o processo ProKnow-C para seleção e análise de artigos científicos a fim de reunir trabalhos de destaque no mundo científico sobre o tema "Avaliação de Desempenho de Produtos", identificando seus pontos fortes e suas debilidades. Por meio desse processo, emergiu a pergunta e objetivo de pesquisa que direcionaram o trabalho com o intuito de suprir as lacunas encontradas. Posteriormente, foi desenvolvido um Estudo de Caso. Os dados para estruturação do problema foram coletados com o gestor do departamento de cocção e em documentos internos da empresa. O instrumento de intervenção utilizado foi o método Multicritério de Apoio à Decisão Construtivista (MCDA-C), que permitiu ao gestor desse contexto visualizar os critérios que devem ser considerados em um processo de avaliação de fogões, bem como permitiu a mensuração do desempenho dos fogões de mesa, auxiliando assim nas decisões de elaboração de projetos de desenvolvimento desses produtos. Como resultado, teve-se a construção de um modelo que contemplava a identificação, organização, mensuração e integração de 56 critérios em 4 produtos. Na avaliação global do modelo o produto A se destacou com 38,8 pontos. O produto D ficou em segundo lugar com 36,1 pontos. O produto C ficou em terceiro com 34,3 pontos e por fim o produto B ficou em quarto lugar com 32,0 pontos. Após ações de aperfeiçoamento foi possível elevar a pontuação do produto B para 40,1 pontos tornando-o mais competitivo.Abstract : The presence of the stoves in Brazilian homes, coupled with the fact that continued industry growth, increased competition in this market. Soon companies that offer products tailored to the needs of consumers and market them faster and more efficiently than its competitors will be in a better position to create a sustainable competitive advantage. Therefore, it is of fundamental importance to the company, make an evaluation of their products and competition, and thus gain knowledge to retain consumers when it decides to buy a new cooktop. The objective of this work is to develop a Performance Evaluation model of cooktops that reflects the values and preferences of the decision maker in order to provide support in his decisions. This is study is exploratory in nature and practice, which follows a qualitative and quantitative approach. To meet the goal, we used the ProKnow-C process for selection and analysis of scientific papers to gather works highlighted in the scientific world on the topic "Performance Evaluation of Products", identifying its strengths and its weaknesses. Through this process, emerged the question and objective research that directed the work in order to fill the gaps found. Later on, a case study was developed. The information to structure the problem, were collected with the manager of the cooking department and in internal company documents. The intervention instrument used was the Multi-Criteria Decision Aiding Constructivist method (MCDA-C), which allowed the manager to visualize the criteria that should be considered in an evaluation process of a stovetop and allowed measurement of performance of cooktops, thereby aiding in the decisions of development of these products. As a result, a model was created that included the identification, organization, measurement and integration of 56 descriptors on 4 cooktops. In the overall evaluation of the model the product A stood out with 38.8 points. The product D was second with 36.1 points. The product C was third with 34.3 points and finally the product B was fourth with 32.0 points. After improvement actions it was possible to raise the score of product B to 40.1 points making it more competitive

An analysis of reasonableness models for research assessments

Individuals who screen research grant applications often select candidates on the basis of a few key parameters; success or failure can be reduced to a series of peer-reviewed Likert scores on as little as four criteria: risk, relevance, return, and reasonableness. Despite the vital impact these assessments have upon the sponsors, researchers, and society in general as a benefactor of the research, there is little empirical research into the peer-review process. The purpose of this study was to investigate how reviewers evaluate reasonableness and how the process can be modeled in a decision support system. The research questions both address the relationship between an individual\u27s estimates of reasonableness and the indicators of scope, resources, cost, and schedule as well as evaluate the performance of several cognitive models as predictors of reasonableness. Building upon Brunswik\u27s theory of probabilistic functionalism, a survey methodology was used to implement a policy-capturing exercise that yielded a quantitative baseline of reasonableness estimates. The subsequent data analysis addressed the predictive performance of six cognitive models as measured by the mean-square-deviation between the models and the data. A novel mapping approach developed by von Helversen and Rieskamp, a fuzzy logic model, and an exemplar model were found to outperform classic linear regression. A neural network model and the QuickEst heuristic model did not perform as well as linear regression. This information can be used in a decision support system to improve the reliability and validity of future research assessments. The positive social impact of this work would be more efficient allocation and prioritization of increasingly scarce research funds in areas of science such as social, psychological, medical, pharmaceutical, and engineering