Analyzing Tropical Waves Using the Parallel Ensemble Empirical Model Decomposition Method: Preliminary Results from Hurricane Sandy

In this study, we discuss the performance of the parallel ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EMD) in the analysis of tropical waves that are associated with tropical cyclone (TC) formation. To efficiently analyze high-resolution, global, multiple-dimensional data sets, we first implement multilevel parallelism into the ensemble EMD (EEMD) and obtain a parallel speedup of 720 using 200 eight-core processors. We then apply the parallel EEMD (PEEMD) to extract the intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) from preselected data sets that represent (1) idealized tropical waves and (2) large-scale environmental flows associated with Hurricane Sandy (2012). Results indicate that the PEEMD is efficient and effective in revealing the major wave characteristics of the data, such as wavelengths and periods, by sifting out the dominant (wave) components. This approach has a potential for hurricane climate study by examining the statistical relationship between tropical waves and TC formation

Improving NASA's Multiscale Modeling Framework for Tropical Cyclone Climate Study

One of the current challenges in tropical cyclone (TC) research is how to improve our understanding of TC interannual variability and the impact of climate change on TCs. Recent advances in global modeling, visualization, and supercomputing technologies at NASA show potential for such studies. In this article, the authors discuss recent scalability improvement to the multiscale modeling framework (MMF) that makes it feasible to perform long-term TC-resolving simulations. The MMF consists of the finite-volume general circulation model (fvGCM), supplemented by a copy of the Goddard cumulus ensemble model (GCE) at each of the fvGCM grid points, giving 13,104 GCE copies. The original fvGCM implementation has a 1D data decomposition; the revised MMF implementation retains the 1D decomposition for most of the code, but uses a 2D decomposition for the massive copies of GCEs. Because the vast majority of computation time in the MMF is spent computing the GCEs, this approach can achieve excellent speedup without incurring the cost of modifying the entire code. Intelligent process mapping allows differing numbers of processes to be assigned to each domain for load balancing. The revised parallel implementation shows highly promising scalability, obtaining a nearly 80-fold speedup by increasing the number of cores from 30 to 3,335

Predicting Tropical Cyclogenesis with a Global Mesoscale Model: Hierarchical Multiscale Interactions During the Formation of Tropical Cyclone Nargis(2008)

Very severe cyclonic storm Nargis devastated Burma (Myanmar) in May 2008, caused tremendous damage and numerous fatalities, and became one of the 10 deadliest tropical cyclones (TCs) of all time. To increase the warning time in order to save lives and reduce economic damage, it is important to extend the lead time in the prediction of TCs like Nargis. As recent advances in high-resolution global models and supercomputing technology have shown the potential for improving TC track and intensity forecasts, the ability of a global mesoscale model to predict TC genesis in the Indian Ocean is examined in this study with the aim of improving simulations of TC climate. High-resolution global simulations with real data show that the initial formation and intensity variations of TC Nargis can be realistically predicted up to 5 days in advance. Preliminary analysis suggests that improved representations of the following environmental conditions and their hierarchical multiscale interactions were the key to achieving this lead time: (1) a westerly wind burst and equatorial trough, (2) an enhanced monsoon circulation with a zero wind shear line, (3) good upper-level outflow with anti-cyclonic wind shear between 200 and 850 hPa, and (4) low-level moisture convergence

Genesis of Hurricane Sandy (2012) simulated with a global mesoscale model

In this study, we investigate the formation predictability of Hurricane Sandy (2012) with a global mesoscale model. We first present five track and intensity forecasts of Sandy initialized at 00Z 22–26 October 2012, realistically producing its movement with a northwestward turn prior to its landfall. We then show that three experiments initialized at 00Z 16–18 October captured the genesis of Sandy with a lead time of up to 6 days and simulated reasonable evolution of Sandy's track and intensity in the next 2 day period of 18Z 21–23 October. Results suggest that the extended lead time of formation prediction is achieved by realistic simulations of multiscale processes, including (1) the interaction between an easterly wave and a low-level westerly wind belt (WWB) and (2) the appearance of the upper-level trough at 200 hPa to Sandy's northwest. The low-level WWB and upper-level trough are likely associated with a Madden-Julian Oscillation

The North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment

The North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment (NAWDEX) explored the impact of diabatic processes on disturbances of the jet stream and their influence on downstream high-impact weather through the deployment of four research aircraft, each with a sophisticated set of remote sensing and in situ instruments, and coordinated with a suite of ground-based measurements. A total of 49 research flights were performed, including, for the first time, coordinated flights of the four aircraft: the German High Altitude and Long Range Research Aircraft (HALO), the Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR) Dassault Falcon 20, the French Service des Avions Français Instrumentés pour la Recherche en Environnement (SAFIRE) Falcon 20, and the British Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM) BAe 146. The observation period from 17 September to 22 October 2016 with frequently occurring extratropical and tropical cyclones was ideal for investigating midlatitude weather over the North Atlantic. NAWDEX featured three sequences of upstream triggers of waveguide disturbances, as well as their dynamic interaction with the jet stream, subsequent development, and eventual downstream weather impact on Europe. Examples are presented to highlight the wealth of phenomena that were sampled, the comprehensive coverage, and the multifaceted nature of the measurements. This unique dataset forms the basis for future case studies and detailed evaluations of weather and climate predictions to improve our understanding of diabatic influences on Rossby waves and the downstream impacts of weather systems affecting Europe

Role of humidity in the development and intensification of Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones (Medicanes)

In questo lavoro sono stati analizzati due casi di ”tropical-like cyclones” nel Mediterraneo, anche noti come Medicane, facendo uso di simulazioni numeriche del modello WRF (versione 4.1). Le simulazione numeriche sono state effettuate usando il supercomputer Cheyenne dell’NCAR-Wyoming Supercomputing Center (NWSC) e inizializzate con i dati di ERA5, l’ultima generazione di reanalisi meteorologiche dell’ECMWF. Questi casi, che sono stati recentemente analizzati nell’articolo di Miglietta e Rotunno (2019), sono stati riconsiderati qui per porre l’attenzione sull’origine dell’aria umida nei bassi strati atmosferici che precondiziona favorevolmente l’ambiente dove i cicloni si sviluppano. Nel primo Medicane erano presenti alti valori di umidità nei bassi strati atmosferici già prima che il ciclone si formasse, a causa degli intensi flussi superficiali dal mare nel Mediterraneo meridionale, associati ad aria secca e fredda proveniente dai Balcani orientali. Il secondo Medicane si intensifica fortemente nel momento in cui beneficia degli intensi flussi superficiali dal mare generati dall’irruzione dei venti di Tramontana e Cierzo vicino alla zona di formazione del ciclone. Benché limitati a questi due casi studio, i risultati delle simulazioni e dei test di sensibilità hanno identificato differenti condizioni ambientali favorevoli all’intensificazione dei Medicane nel Mediterraneo occidentale e meridionale, e dimostrano perché queste due aree sono considerate come hot spot per la formazione di questi fenomeni. Inoltre, è stato analizzato il ruolo dell’intrusione di aria secca d’alta quota nello sviluppo dei cicloni. Sono stati effettuati test di sensibilità dove è stata posta una condizione di minimo valore di umidità relativa (50%) nelle condizioni iniziali e nelle condizioni al contorno. Per entrambi i casi, è stato trovato che l’aumento di umidità ha l’effetto di anticipare la formazione del ciclone, producendo vortici più intensi e duraturi

Development of a geovisual analytics environment using parallel coordinates with applications to tropical cyclone trend analysis

A global transformation is being fueled by unprecedented growth in the quality, quantity, and number of different parameters in environmental data through the convergence of several technological advances in data collection and modeling. Although these data hold great potential for helping us understand many complex and, in some cases, life-threatening environmental processes, our ability to generate such data is far outpacing our ability to analyze it. In particular, conventional environmental data analysis tools are inadequate for coping with the size and complexity of these data. As a result, users are forced to reduce the problem in order to adapt to the capabilities of the tools. To overcome these limitations, we must complement the power of computational methods with human knowledge, flexible thinking, imagination, and our capacity for insight by developing visual analysis tools that distill information into the actionable criteria needed for enhanced decision support. In light of said challenges, we have integrated automated statistical analysis capabilities with a highly interactive, multivariate visualization interface to produce a promising approach for visual environmental data analysis. By combining advanced interaction techniques such as dynamic axis scaling, conjunctive parallel coordinates, statistical indicators, and aerial perspective shading, we provide an enhanced variant of the classical parallel coordinates plot. Furthermore, the system facilitates statistical processes such as stepwise linear regression and correlation analysis to assist in the identification and quantification of the most significant predictors for a particular dependent variable. These capabilities are combined into a unique geovisual analytics system that is demonstrated via a pedagogical case study and three North Atlantic tropical cyclone climate studies using a systematic workflow. In addition to revealing several significant associations between environmental observations and tropical cyclone activity, this research corroborates the notion that enhanced parallel coordinates coupled with statistical analysis can be used for more effective knowledge discovery and confirmation in complex, real-world data sets

Development of a geovisual analytics environment using parallel coordinates with applications to tropical cyclone trend analysis

A global transformation is being fueled by unprecedented growth in the quality, quantity, and number of different parameters in environmental data through the convergence of several technological advances in data collection and modeling. Although these data hold great potential for helping us understand many complex and, in some cases, life-threatening environmental processes, our ability to generate such data is far outpacing our ability to analyze it. In particular, conventional environmental data analysis tools are inadequate for coping with the size and complexity of these data. As a result, users are forced to reduce the problem in order to adapt to the capabilities of the tools. To overcome these limitations, we must complement the power of computational methods with human knowledge, flexible thinking, imagination, and our capacity for insight by developing visual analysis tools that distill information into the actionable criteria needed for enhanced decision support. In light of said challenges, we have integrated automated statistical analysis capabilities with a highly interactive, multivariate visualization interface to produce a promising approach for visual environmental data analysis. By combining advanced interaction techniques such as dynamic axis scaling, conjunctive parallel coordinates, statistical indicators, and aerial perspective shading, we provide an enhanced variant of the classical parallel coordinates plot. Furthermore, the system facilitates statistical processes such as stepwise linear regression and correlation analysis to assist in the identification and quantification of the most significant predictors for a particular dependent variable. These capabilities are combined into a unique geovisual analytics system that is demonstrated via a pedagogical case study and three North Atlantic tropical cyclone climate studies using a systematic workflow. In addition to revealing several significant associations between environmental observations and tropical cyclone activity, this research corroborates the notion that enhanced parallel coordinates coupled with statistical analysis can be used for more effective knowledge discovery and confirmation in complex, real-world data sets