An analysis of possible applications of fuzzy set theory to the actuarial credibility theory

In this work, we review the basic concepts of actuarial credibility theory from the point of view of introducing applications of the fuzzy set-theoretic method. We show how the concept of actuarial credibility can be modeled through the fuzzy set membership functions and how fuzzy set methods, especially fuzzy pattern recognition, can provide an alternative tool for estimating credibility

The treatment of assets in pension funding

A recent survey of actuarial practitioners in North America shows that smoothed-market actuarial asset values are commonly used in funding valuations of defined benefit pension plans. Four methods of calculating such values are reported in the actuarial literature but only qualitative descriptions of the methods are given. This paper provides mathematical descriptions of the “average of market”, “weighted average”, “deferred recognition” and “write-up” actuarial values. They are shown to be based on either arithmetic or exponential smoothing. Provided the same form of smoothing is used, the four methods are equivalent

Time-Consistent and Market-Consistent Evaluations

We consider evaluation methods for payoffs with an inherent financial risk as encountered for instance for portfolios held by pension funds and insurance companies. Pricing such payoffs in a way consistent to market prices typically involves combining actuarial techniques with methods from mathematical finance. We propose to extend standard actuarial principles by a new market-consistent evaluation procedure which we call `two step market evaluation.' This procedure preserves the structure of standard evaluation techniques and has many other appealing properties. We give a complete axiomatic characterization for two step market evaluations. We show further that in a dynamic setting with a continuous stock prices process every evaluation which is time-consistent and market-consistent is a two step market evaluation. We also give characterization results and examples in terms of g-expectations in a Brownian-Poisson setting

Penggunaan Metode Projected Unit Credit Dan Entry Age Normal Dalam Pembiayaan Pensiun

One effort to anticipate the risk of old age is to include every worker in a pension plan. From that pension plan, workers will get a pension benefit at retirement. Before reaching retirement age, there should be an actuarial cost, which includes the normal cost and actuarial liabilities. Both are calculated using actuarial cost methods. Actuarial cost methods are divided into two major categories, are Accrued Benefit Cost Method and Projected Benefit Cost Method. One example of the methods included in Accrued Benefit Cost Method is Projected Unit Credit Method, and one of the methods included in Projected Benefit Cost Method is Entry Age Normal Method. The data used in this thesis are secondary data from PT Taspen (Persero) KCU Semarang. The results of the calculation shows normal cost using Projected Unit Credit method continues to increase with increased salary. Whereas if using Entry Age Normal Method the same amount for each year on an employee. Besides, actuarial liability using Projected Unit Credit Method is smaller than using Entry Age Normal for each employee in each year

Value relevance of alternative methods of accounting for actuarial gains and losses

The adoption of IAS 19: Employee benefits (2004) provided managers with an important accounting choice affecting the time and placement of actuarial gains and losses recognition. IAS 19 enables a choice between three major accounting methods related to the recognition of actuarial gains and losses of defined benefit plans: profit or loss method, equity recognition method and corridor method. The objective of this paper is to compare the ability of the three alternative methods for recognising actuarial gains and losses to reflect companies’ value. We manually collect information about the accounting method of recognising actuarial gains and losses adopted by 91 European companies listed in EURONEXT100, in 2005, 2006 and 2007. We applied regression analysis to investigate the value relevance of financial information under equity recognition method, profit or loss method and corridor method. Findings suggest that the recognition of all actuarial gains and losses in equity best reflects the market’s valuation of actuarial gains and losses.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Premium Estimation Inaccuracy and the Actuarial Performance of the US Crop Insurance Program

This article explores the impact of the likely levels of inaccuracy associated with two main types of premium estimation methods, under different sample sizes, on the actuarial performance of the US crop insurance program. The analyses are conducted under several plausible assumptions about the insurer versus the producers’ estimates for their actuarially fair premiums. Significant differences are found due to estimation method and sample size, with the currently used procedures resulting in the worse actuarial performance. Several conclusions and recommendations are provided that could markedly reduce the amount of public subsidies needed to keep this program solvent.Agricultural Subsidies, Crop Insurance Premium Estimation, Loss-Cost Procedures, Risk Management Agency, Financial Economics,

Market Valuation of Accrued Social Security Benefits

One measure of the health of the Social Security system is the difference between the market value of the trust fund and the present value of benefits accrued to date. How should present values be computed for this calculation in light of future uncertainties? We think it is important to use market value. Since claims on accrued benefits are not currently traded in financial markets, we cannot directly observe a market value. In this paper, we use a model to estimate what the market price for these claims would be if they were traded. In valuing such claims, the key issue is properly adjusting for risk. The traditional actuarial approach -- the approach currently used by the Social Security Administration in generating its most widely cited numbers -- ignores risk and instead simply discounts "expected" future flows back to the present using a risk-free rate. If benefits are risky and this risk is priced by the market, then actuarial estimates will differ from market value. Effectively, market valuation uses a discount rate that incorporates a risk premium. Developing the proper adjustment for risk requires a careful examination of the stream of future benefits. The U.S. Social Security system is "wage-indexed": future benefits depend directly on future realizations of the economy-wide average wage index. We assume that there is a positive long-run correlation between average labor earnings and the stock market. We then use derivative pricing methods standard in the finance literature to compute the market price of individual claims on future benefits, which depend on age and macro state variables. Finally, we aggregate the market value of benefits across all cohorts to arrive at an overall value of accrued benefits. We find that the difference between market valuation and "actuarial" valuation is large, especially when valuing the benefits of younger cohorts. Overall, the market value of accrued benefits is only 4/5 of that implied by the actuarial approach. Ignoring cohorts over age 60 (for whom the valuations are the same), market value is only 70% as large as that implied by the actuarial approach.Social security, Market value, Risk adjustment, Actuarial value, Wage bonds, Unfunded obligations