Human -machine system design optimization for nondeterministic spacecraft anomaly determination/resolution

This research examines the dependence of knowledge on decision making with varying levels of uncertainty or non-deterministic situations. The work presented outlines a global approach that is not limited to a specific case study example, but can also be translated to other systems requiring operators, a degree of automation, time constraints, remote control, and high levels of personnel expertise. The specific objective of this study was to address the uncertainty inherent in satellite command and control and to assess and understand the role of human knowledge in the combined human-machine system unit. This research focused solely on the user component of complex human-machine systems. Machine technology level remained constant; no modifications or variations were made to the machine operating system. However, the user knowledge level was altered to examine the effect of this variation and resulting operator ability to troubleshoot and resolve system anomalies. The case study researched was the Defense Support Program (DSP) satellite constellation currently in use by Air Force Space Command for missile warning. Three different Types of tasks were defined, where the three Type categories (1, 2, and 3) represented the level of task difficulty (low, moderate and high). Each task consisted of resolving a unique satellite vehicle anomaly within pre-scripted scenarios. The role of human knowledge was examined and found to be significantly important. This result was more evident as the situation uncertainty or complexity of the task increased. This data may be useful to continue the optimization of both user and machine to create a human-machine system capable of adapting to the rapidly changing space environment and able to contribute more fully to tomorrow\u27s space control objectives

Classification and reduction of pilot error

Human error is a primary or contributing factor in about two-thirds of commercial aviation accidents worldwide. With the ultimate goal of reducing pilot error accidents, this contract effort is aimed at understanding the factors underlying error events and reducing the probability of certain types of errors by modifying underlying factors such as flight deck design and procedures. A review of the literature relevant to error classification was conducted. Classification includes categorizing types of errors, the information processing mechanisms and factors underlying them, and identifying factor-mechanism-error relationships. The classification scheme developed by Jens Rasmussen was adopted because it provided a comprehensive yet basic error classification shell or structure that could easily accommodate addition of details on domain-specific factors. For these purposes, factors specific to the aviation environment were incorporated. Hypotheses concerning the relationship of a small number of underlying factors, information processing mechanisms, and error types types identified in the classification scheme were formulated. ASRS data were reviewed and a simulation experiment was performed to evaluate and quantify the hypotheses

Oil and Gas flow Anomaly Detection on offshore naturally flowing wells using Deep Neural Networks

Dissertation presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Data Science and Advanced Analytics, specialization in Data ScienceThe Oil and Gas industry, as never before, faces multiple challenges. It is being impugned for being dirty, a pollutant, and hence the more demand for green alternatives. Nevertheless, the world still has to rely heavily on hydrocarbons, since it is the most traditional and stable source of energy, as opposed to extensively promoted hydro, solar or wind power. Major operators are challenged to produce the oil more efficiently, to counteract the newly arising energy sources, with less of a climate footprint, more scrutinized expenditure, thus facing high skepticism regarding its future. It has to become greener, and hence to act in a manner not required previously. While most of the tools used by the Hydrocarbon E&P industry is expensive and has been used for many years, it is paramount for the industry’s survival and prosperity to apply predictive maintenance technologies, that would foresee potential failures, making production safer, lowering downtime, increasing productivity and diminishing maintenance costs. Many efforts were applied in order to define the most accurate and effective predictive methods, however data scarcity affects the speed and capacity for further experimentations. Whilst it would be highly beneficial for the industry to invest in Artificial Intelligence, this research aims at exploring, in depth, the subject of Anomaly Detection, using the open public data from Petrobras, that was developed by experts. For this research the Deep Learning Neural Networks, such as Recurrent Neural Networks with LSTM and GRU backbones, were implemented for multi-class classification of undesirable events on naturally flowing wells. Further, several hyperparameter optimization tools were explored, mainly focusing on Genetic Algorithms as being the most advanced methods for such kind of tasks. The research concluded with the best performing algorithm with 2 stacked GRU and the following vector of hyperparameters weights: [1, 47, 40, 14], which stand for timestep 1, number of hidden units 47, number of epochs 40 and batch size 14, producing F1 equal to 0.97%. As the world faces many issues, one of which is the detrimental effect of heavy industries to the environment and as result adverse global climate change, this project is an attempt to contribute to the field of applying Artificial Intelligence in the Oil and Gas industry, with the intention to make it more efficient, transparent and sustainable

Technology for the Future: In-Space Technology Experiments Program, part 2

The purpose of the Office of Aeronautics and Space Technology (OAST) In-Space Technology Experiments Program In-STEP 1988 Workshop was to identify and prioritize technologies that are critical for future national space programs and require validation in the space environment, and review current NASA (In-Reach) and industry/ university (Out-Reach) experiments. A prioritized list of the critical technology needs was developed for the following eight disciplines: structures; environmental effects; power systems and thermal management; fluid management and propulsion systems; automation and robotics; sensors and information systems; in-space systems; and humans in space. This is part two of two parts and contains the critical technology presentations for the eight theme elements and a summary listing of critical space technology needs for each theme

What Happened, and Why: Toward an Understanding of Human Error Based on Automated Analyses of Incident Reports

The objective of the Aviation System Monitoring and Modeling (ASMM) project of NASA s Aviation Safety and Security Program was to develop technologies that will enable proactive management of safety risk, which entails identifying the precursor events and conditions that foreshadow most accidents. This presents a particular challenge in the aviation system where people are key components and human error is frequently cited as a major contributing factor or cause of incidents and accidents. In the aviation "world", information about what happened can be extracted from quantitative data sources, but the experiential account of the incident reporter is the best available source of information about why an incident happened. This report describes a conceptual model and an approach to automated analyses of textual data sources for the subjective perspective of the reporter of the incident to aid in understanding why an incident occurred. It explores a first-generation process for routinely searching large databases of textual reports of aviation incident or accidents, and reliably analyzing them for causal factors of human behavior (the why of an incident). We have defined a generic structure of information that is postulated to be a sound basis for defining similarities between aviation incidents. Based on this structure, we have introduced the simplifying structure, which we call the Scenario as a pragmatic guide for identifying similarities of what happened based on the objective parameters that define the Context and the Outcome of a Scenario. We believe that it will be possible to design an automated analysis process guided by the structure of the Scenario that will aid aviation-safety experts to understand the systemic issues that are conducive to human error

Machine learning based anomaly detection for industry 4.0 systems.

223 p.This thesis studies anomaly detection in industrial systems using technologies from the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR), such as the Internet of Things, Artificial Intelligence, 3D Printing, and Augmented Reality. The goal is to provide tools that can be used in real-world scenarios to detect system anomalies, intending to improve production and maintenance processes. The thesis investigates the applicability and implementation of 4IR technology architectures, AI-driven machine learning systems, and advanced visualization tools to support decision-making based on the detection of anomalies. The work covers a range of topics, including the conception of a 4IR system based on a generic architecture, the design of a data acquisition system for analysis and modelling, the creation of ensemble supervised and semi-supervised models for anomaly detection, the detection of anomalies through frequency analysis, and the visualization of associated data using Visual Analytics. The results show that the proposed methodology for integrating anomaly detection systems in new or existing industries is valid and that combining 4IR architectures, ensemble machine learning models, and Visual Analytics tools significantly enhances theanomaly detection processes for industrial systems. Furthermore, the thesis presents a guiding framework for data engineers and end-users

Automating Security Risk and Requirements Management for Cyber-Physical Systems

Cyber-physische Systeme ermöglichen zahlreiche moderne Anwendungsfälle und Geschäftsmodelle wie vernetzte Fahrzeuge, das intelligente Stromnetz (Smart Grid) oder das industrielle Internet der Dinge. Ihre Schlüsselmerkmale Komplexität, Heterogenität und Langlebigkeit machen den langfristigen Schutz dieser Systeme zu einer anspruchsvollen, aber unverzichtbaren Aufgabe. In der physischen Welt stellen die Gesetze der Physik einen festen Rahmen für Risiken und deren Behandlung dar. Im Cyberspace gibt es dagegen keine vergleichbare Konstante, die der Erosion von Sicherheitsmerkmalen entgegenwirkt. Hierdurch können sich bestehende Sicherheitsrisiken laufend ändern und neue entstehen. Um Schäden durch böswillige Handlungen zu verhindern, ist es notwendig, hohe und unbekannte Risiken frühzeitig zu erkennen und ihnen angemessen zu begegnen. Die Berücksichtigung der zahlreichen dynamischen sicherheitsrelevanten Faktoren erfordert einen neuen Automatisierungsgrad im Management von Sicherheitsrisiken und -anforderungen, der über den aktuellen Stand der Wissenschaft und Technik hinausgeht. Nur so kann langfristig ein angemessenes, umfassendes und konsistentes Sicherheitsniveau erreicht werden. Diese Arbeit adressiert den dringenden Bedarf an einer Automatisierungsmethodik bei der Analyse von Sicherheitsrisiken sowie der Erzeugung und dem Management von Sicherheitsanforderungen für Cyber-physische Systeme. Das dazu vorgestellte Rahmenwerk umfasst drei Komponenten: (1) eine modelbasierte Methodik zur Ermittlung und Bewertung von Sicherheitsrisiken; (2) Methoden zur Vereinheitlichung, Ableitung und Verwaltung von Sicherheitsanforderungen sowie (3) eine Reihe von Werkzeugen und Verfahren zur Erkennung und Reaktion auf sicherheitsrelevante Situationen. Der Schutzbedarf und die angemessene Stringenz werden durch die Sicherheitsrisikobewertung mit Hilfe von Graphen und einer sicherheitsspezifischen Modellierung ermittelt und bewertet. Basierend auf dem Modell und den bewerteten Risiken werden anschließend fundierte Sicherheitsanforderungen zum Schutz des Gesamtsystems und seiner Funktionalität systematisch abgeleitet und in einer einheitlichen, maschinenlesbaren Struktur formuliert. Diese maschinenlesbare Struktur ermöglicht es, Sicherheitsanforderungen automatisiert entlang der Lieferkette zu propagieren. Ebenso ermöglicht sie den effizienten Abgleich der vorhandenen Fähigkeiten mit externen Sicherheitsanforderungen aus Vorschriften, Prozessen und von Geschäftspartnern. Trotz aller getroffenen Maßnahmen verbleibt immer ein gewisses Restrisiko einer Kompromittierung, worauf angemessen reagiert werden muss. Dieses Restrisiko wird durch Werkzeuge und Prozesse adressiert, die sowohl die lokale und als auch die großräumige Erkennung, Klassifizierung und Korrelation von Vorfällen verbessern. Die Integration der Erkenntnisse aus solchen Vorfällen in das Modell führt häufig zu aktualisierten Bewertungen, neuen Anforderungen und verbessert weitere Analysen. Abschließend wird das vorgestellte Rahmenwerk anhand eines aktuellen Anwendungsfalls aus dem Automobilbereich demonstriert.Cyber-Physical Systems enable various modern use cases and business models such as connected vehicles, the Smart (power) Grid, or the Industrial Internet of Things. Their key characteristics, complexity, heterogeneity, and longevity make the long-term protection of these systems a demanding but indispensable task. In the physical world, the laws of physics provide a constant scope for risks and their treatment. In cyberspace, on the other hand, there is no such constant to counteract the erosion of security features. As a result, existing security risks can constantly change and new ones can arise. To prevent damage caused by malicious acts, it is necessary to identify high and unknown risks early and counter them appropriately. Considering the numerous dynamic security-relevant factors requires a new level of automation in the management of security risks and requirements, which goes beyond the current state of the art. Only in this way can an appropriate, comprehensive, and consistent level of security be achieved in the long term. This work addresses the pressing lack of an automation methodology for the security-risk assessment as well as the generation and management of security requirements for Cyber-Physical Systems. The presented framework accordingly comprises three components: (1) a model-based security risk assessment methodology, (2) methods to unify, deduce and manage security requirements, and (3) a set of tools and procedures to detect and respond to security-relevant situations. The need for protection and the appropriate rigor are determined and evaluated by the security risk assessment using graphs and a security-specific modeling. Based on the model and the assessed risks, well-founded security requirements for protecting the overall system and its functionality are systematically derived and formulated in a uniform, machine-readable structure. This machine-readable structure makes it possible to propagate security requirements automatically along the supply chain. Furthermore, they enable the efficient reconciliation of present capabilities with external security requirements from regulations, processes, and business partners. Despite all measures taken, there is always a slight risk of compromise, which requires an appropriate response. This residual risk is addressed by tools and processes that improve the local and large-scale detection, classification, and correlation of incidents. Integrating the findings from such incidents into the model often leads to updated assessments, new requirements, and improves further analyses. Finally, the presented framework is demonstrated by a recent application example from the automotive domain

Conformance checking of a longwall shearer operation based on low-level events

Conformance checking is a process mining technique that compares a process model with an event log of the same process to check whether the current execution stored in the log conforms to the model and vice versa. This paper deals with the conformance checking of a longwall shearer process. The approach uses place-transition Petri nets with inhibitor arcs for modeling purposes. We use event log files collected from a few coal mines located in Poland by Famur S.A., one of the global suppliers of coal mining machines. One of the main advantages of the approach is the possibility for both offline and online analysis of the log data. The paper presents a detailed description of the longwall process, an original formal model we developed, selected elements of the approach’s implementation and the results of experiments