Efficient methods of automatic calibration for rainfall-runoff modelling in the Floreon+ system

Calibration of rainfall-runoff model parameters is an inseparable part of hydrological simulations. To achieve more accurate results of these simulations, it is necessary to implement an efficient calibration method that provides sufficient refinement of the model parameters in a reasonable time frame. In order to perform the calibration repeatedly for large amount of data and provide results of calibrated model simulations for the flood warning process in a short time, the method also has to be automated. In this paper, several local and global optimization methods are tested for their efficiency. The main goal is to identify the most accurate method for the calibration process that provides accurate results in an operational time frame (typically less than 1 hour) to be used in the flood prediction Floreon(+) system. All calibrations were performed on the measured data during the rainfall events in 2010 in the Moravian-Silesian region (Czech Republic) using our in-house rainfall-runoff model.Web of Science27441339

3D environment mapping using the Kinect V2 and path planning based on RRT algorithms

This paper describes a 3D path planning system that is able to provide a solution trajectory for the automatic control of a robot. The proposed system uses a point cloud obtained from the robot workspace, with a Kinect V2 sensor to identify the interest regions and the obstacles of the environment. Our proposal includes a collision-free path planner based on the Rapidly-exploring Random Trees variant (RRT*), for a safe and optimal navigation of robots in 3D spaces. Results on RGB-D segmentation and recognition, point cloud processing, and comparisons between different RRT* algorithms, are presented.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Reliable ABC model choice via random forests

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods provide an elaborate approach to Bayesian inference on complex models, including model choice. Both theoretical arguments and simulation experiments indicate, however, that model posterior probabilities may be poorly evaluated by standard ABC techniques. We propose a novel approach based on a machine learning tool named random forests to conduct selection among the highly complex models covered by ABC algorithms. We thus modify the way Bayesian model selection is both understood and operated, in that we rephrase the inferential goal as a classification problem, first predicting the model that best fits the data with random forests and postponing the approximation of the posterior probability of the predicted MAP for a second stage also relying on random forests. Compared with earlier implementations of ABC model choice, the ABC random forest approach offers several potential improvements: (i) it often has a larger discriminative power among the competing models, (ii) it is more robust against the number and choice of statistics summarizing the data, (iii) the computing effort is drastically reduced (with a gain in computation efficiency of at least fifty), and (iv) it includes an approximation of the posterior probability of the selected model. The call to random forests will undoubtedly extend the range of size of datasets and complexity of models that ABC can handle. We illustrate the power of this novel methodology by analyzing controlled experiments as well as genuine population genetics datasets. The proposed methodologies are implemented in the R package abcrf available on the CRAN.Comment: 39 pages, 15 figures, 6 table

Measurements, Models, Systems and Design

531 s.

Calibration of neural networks using genetic algorithms, with application to optimal path planning

Genetic algorithms (GA) are used to search the synaptic weight space of artificial neural systems (ANS) for weight vectors that optimize some network performance function. GAs do not suffer from some of the architectural constraints involved with other techniques and it is straightforward to incorporate terms into the performance function concerning the metastructure of the ANS. Hence GAs offer a remarkably general approach to calibrating ANS. GAs are applied to the problem of calibrating an ANS that finds optimal paths over a given surface. This problem involves training an ANS on a relatively small set of paths and then examining whether the calibrated ANS is able to find good paths between arbitrary start and end points on the surface

An efficient null space inexact Newton method for hydraulic simulation of water distribution networks

Null space Newton algorithms are efficient in solving the nonlinear equations arising in hydraulic analysis of water distribution networks. In this article, we propose and evaluate an inexact Newton method that relies on partial updates of the network pipes' frictional headloss computations to solve the linear systems more efficiently and with numerical reliability. The update set parameters are studied to propose appropriate values. Different null space basis generation schemes are analysed to choose methods for sparse and well-conditioned null space bases resulting in a smaller update set. The Newton steps are computed in the null space by solving sparse, symmetric positive definite systems with sparse Cholesky factorizations. By using the constant structure of the null space system matrices, a single symbolic factorization in the Cholesky decomposition is used multiple times, reducing the computational cost of linear solves. The algorithms and analyses are validated using medium to large-scale water network models.Comment: 15 pages, 9 figures, Preprint extension of Abraham and Stoianov, 2015 (https://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HY.1943-7900.0001089), September 2015. Includes extended exposition, additional case studies and new simulations and analysi