Function Approximation Using Probabilistic Fuzzy Systems

We consider function approximation by fuzzy systems. Fuzzy systems are typically used for approximating deterministic functions, in which the stochastic uncertainty is ignored. We propose probabilistic fuzzy systems i

Adaptive probability scheme for behaviour monitoring of the elderly using a specialised ambient device

A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) modified to work in combination with a Fuzzy System is utilised to determine the current behavioural state of the user from information obtained with specialised hardware. Due to the high dimensionality and not-linearly-separable nature of the Fuzzy System and the sensor data obtained with the hardware which informs the state decision, a new method is devised to update the HMM and replace the initial Fuzzy System such that subsequent state decisions are based on the most recent information. The resultant system first reduces the dimensionality of the original information by using a manifold representation in the high dimension which is unfolded in the lower dimension. The data is then linearly separable in the lower dimension where a simple linear classifier, such as the perceptron used here, is applied to determine the probability of the observations belonging to a state. Experiments using the new system verify its applicability in a real scenario

The posterity of Zadeh's 50-year-old paper: A retrospective in 101 Easy Pieces – and a Few More

International audienceThis article was commissioned by the 22nd IEEE International Conference of Fuzzy Systems (FUZZ-IEEE) to celebrate the 50th Anniversary of Lotfi Zadeh's seminal 1965 paper on fuzzy sets. In addition to Lotfi's original paper, this note itemizes 100 citations of books and papers deemed “important (significant, seminal, etc.)” by 20 of the 21 living IEEE CIS Fuzzy Systems pioneers. Each of the 20 contributors supplied 5 citations, and Lotfi's paper makes the overall list a tidy 101, as in “Fuzzy Sets 101”. This note is not a survey in any real sense of the word, but the contributors did offer short remarks to indicate the reason for inclusion (e.g., historical, topical, seminal, etc.) of each citation. Citation statistics are easy to find and notoriously erroneous, so we refrain from reporting them - almost. The exception is that according to Google scholar on April 9, 2015, Lotfi's 1965 paper has been cited 55,479 times

Conditional Density Models Integrating Fuzzy and Probabilistic Representations of Uncertainty

__Abstract__ Conditional density estimation is an important problem in a variety of areas such as system identification, machine learning, artificial intelligence, empirical economics, macroeconomic analysis, quantitative finance and risk management. This work considers the general problem of conditional density estimation, i.e., estimating and predicting the density of a response variable as a function of covariates. The semi-parametric models proposed and developed in this work combine fuzzy and probabilistic representations of uncertainty, while making very few assumptions regarding the functional form of the response variable's density or changes of the functional form across the space of covariates. These models possess sufficient generalization power to approximate a non-standard density and the ability to describe the underlying process using simple linguistic descriptors despite the complexity and possible non-linearity of this process. These novel models are applied to real world quantitative finance and risk management problems by analyzing financial time-series data containing non-trivial statistical properties, such as fat tails, asymmetric distributions and changing variation over time

Fuzzy expert systems in civil engineering

Imperial Users onl

Modelling and optimizing multiple attribute decisions by using fuzzy sets

The purpose of this paper is to present a coherent perspective of modeling and optimizing multiple attribute decisions by using fuzzy sets. In management practice we face most of the time the situation in which a problem have several possible solutions and each solution can be analyzed using multiple criteria models. In the same time, in real life decision making process there is a given level of uncertainty which makes difficult a clear cut analytical analysis. The object of this article is to build a model approach for making multiple criteria decision using fuzzy sets of objects. Elaborating multiple attribute decisions involves performing an assessment and selecting from a given and finite set of possible alternative courses of action in the presence of a given and finite, and usually conflicting set of attributes and criteria.decision making, fuzzy sets, modeling, multiple criteria optimization.

On the semantics of fuzzy logic

AbstractThis paper presents a formal characterization of the major concepts and constructs of fuzzy logic in terms of notions of distance, closeness, and similarity between pairs of possible worlds. The formalism is a direct extension (by recognition of multiple degrees of accessibility, conceivability, or reachability) of the najor modal logic concepts of possible and necessary truth.Given a function that maps pairs of possible worlds into a number between 0 and 1, generalizing the conventional concept of an equivalence relation, the major constructs of fuzzy logic (conditional and unconditioned possibility distributions) are defined in terms of this similarity relation using familiar concepts from the mathematical theory of metric spaces. This interpretation is different in nature and character from the typical, chance-oriented, meanings associated with probabilistic concepts, which are grounded on the mathematical notion of set measure. The similarity structure defines a topological notion of continuity in the space of possible worlds (and in that of its subsets, i.e., propositions) that allows a form of logical “extrapolation” between possible worlds.This logical extrapolation operation corresponds to the major deductive rule of fuzzy logic — the compositional rule of inference or generalized modus ponens of Zadeh — an inferential operation that generalizes its classical counterpart by virtue of its ability to be utilized when propositions representing available evidence match only approximately the antecedents of conditional propositions. The relations between the similarity-based interpretation of the role of conditional possibility distributions and the approximate inferential procedures of Baldwin are also discussed.A straightforward extension of the theory to the case where the similarity scale is symbolic rather than numeric is described. The problem of generating similarity functions from a given set of possibility distributions, with the latter interpreted as defining a number of (graded) discernibility relations and the former as the result of combining them into a joint measure of distinguishability between possible worlds, is briefly discussed