Survey over Existing Query and Transformation Languages

A widely acknowledged obstacle for realizing the vision of the Semantic Web is the inability of many current Semantic Web approaches to cope with data available in such diverging representation formalisms as XML, RDF, or Topic Maps. A common query language is the first step to allow transparent access to data in any of these formats. To further the understanding of the requirements and approaches proposed for query languages in the conventional as well as the Semantic Web, this report surveys a large number of query languages for accessing XML, RDF, or Topic Maps. This is the first systematic survey to consider query languages from all these areas. From the detailed survey of these query languages, a common classification scheme is derived that is useful for understanding and differentiating languages within and among all three areas

The behavior of the nominal exchange rate at the beginning of disinflations

A standard rational expectations model would give strong predictions about the behavior of the nominal exchange rate at the beginning of a disinflation (a rise in interest rates): a substantial initial appreciation, followed by a steady depreciation. It largely conflicts actual observations, like the recent experience of Poland, Hungary, and Chile, where an initial appreciation was not followed by any systematic depreciation. The paper tries to explore whether rational expectations can be rescued by introducing noise and parameter learning. An optimistic learning case (worse than expected inflation data every period), or the combination of a pessimistic learning case (better than expected data every period) and a declining proportional risk content of the interest rate offers a potential explanation.uncovered interest parity, rational expectations, parameter learning, monetary contraction, small macromodel.

Explainable methods for knowledge graph refinement and exploration via symbolic reasoning

Knowledge Graphs (KGs) have applications in many domains such as Finance, Manufacturing, and Healthcare. While recent efforts have created large KGs, their content is far from complete and sometimes includes invalid statements. Therefore, it is crucial to refine the constructed KGs to enhance their coverage and accuracy via KG completion and KG validation. It is also vital to provide human-comprehensible explanations for such refinements, so that humans have trust in the KG quality. Enabling KG exploration, by search and browsing, is also essential for users to understand the KG value and limitations towards down-stream applications. However, the large size of KGs makes KG exploration very challenging. While the type taxonomy of KGs is a useful asset along these lines, it remains insufficient for deep exploration. In this dissertation we tackle the aforementioned challenges of KG refinement and KG exploration by combining logical reasoning over the KG with other techniques such as KG embedding models and text mining. Through such combination, we introduce methods that provide human-understandable output. Concretely, we introduce methods to tackle KG incompleteness by learning exception-aware rules over the existing KG. Learned rules are then used in inferring missing links in the KG accurately. Furthermore, we propose a framework for constructing human-comprehensible explanations for candidate facts from both KG and text. Extracted explanations are used to insure the validity of KG facts. Finally, to facilitate KG exploration, we introduce a method that combines KG embeddings with rule mining to compute informative entity clusters with explanations.Wissensgraphen haben viele Anwendungen in verschiedenen Bereichen, beispielsweise im Finanz- und Gesundheitswesen. Wissensgraphen sind jedoch unvollständig und enthalten auch ungültige Daten. Hohe Abdeckung und Korrektheit erfordern neue Methoden zur Wissensgraph-Erweiterung und Wissensgraph-Validierung. Beide Aufgaben zusammen werden als Wissensgraph-Verfeinerung bezeichnet. Ein wichtiger Aspekt dabei ist die Erklärbarkeit und Verständlichkeit von Wissensgraphinhalten für Nutzer. In Anwendungen ist darüber hinaus die nutzerseitige Exploration von Wissensgraphen von besonderer Bedeutung. Suchen und Navigieren im Graph hilft dem Anwender, die Wissensinhalte und ihre Limitationen besser zu verstehen. Aufgrund der riesigen Menge an vorhandenen Entitäten und Fakten ist die Wissensgraphen-Exploration eine Herausforderung. Taxonomische Typsystem helfen dabei, sind jedoch für tiefergehende Exploration nicht ausreichend. Diese Dissertation adressiert die Herausforderungen der Wissensgraph-Verfeinerung und der Wissensgraph-Exploration durch algorithmische Inferenz über dem Wissensgraph. Sie erweitert logisches Schlussfolgern und kombiniert es mit anderen Methoden, insbesondere mit neuronalen Wissensgraph-Einbettungen und mit Text-Mining. Diese neuen Methoden liefern Ausgaben mit Erklärungen für Nutzer. Die Dissertation umfasst folgende Beiträge: Insbesondere leistet die Dissertation folgende Beiträge: • Zur Wissensgraph-Erweiterung präsentieren wir ExRuL, eine Methode zur Revision von Horn-Regeln durch Hinzufügen von Ausnahmebedingungen zum Rumpf der Regeln. Die erweiterten Regeln können neue Fakten inferieren und somit Lücken im Wissensgraphen schließen. Experimente mit großen Wissensgraphen zeigen, dass diese Methode Fehler in abgeleiteten Fakten erheblich reduziert und nutzerfreundliche Erklärungen liefert. • Mit RuLES stellen wir eine Methode zum Lernen von Regeln vor, die auf probabilistischen Repräsentationen für fehlende Fakten basiert. Das Verfahren erweitert iterativ die aus einem Wissensgraphen induzierten Regeln, indem es neuronale Wissensgraph-Einbettungen mit Informationen aus Textkorpora kombiniert. Bei der Regelgenerierung werden neue Metriken für die Regelqualität verwendet. Experimente zeigen, dass RuLES die Qualität der gelernten Regeln und ihrer Vorhersagen erheblich verbessert. • Zur Unterstützung der Wissensgraph-Validierung wird ExFaKT vorgestellt, ein Framework zur Konstruktion von Erklärungen für Faktkandidaten. Die Methode transformiert Kandidaten mit Hilfe von Regeln in eine Menge von Aussagen, die leichter zu finden und zu validieren oder widerlegen sind. Die Ausgabe von ExFaKT ist eine Menge semantischer Evidenzen für Faktkandidaten, die aus Textkorpora und dem Wissensgraph extrahiert werden. Experimente zeigen, dass die Transformationen die Ausbeute und Qualität der entdeckten Erklärungen deutlich verbessert. Die generierten unterstützen Erklärungen unterstütze sowohl die manuelle Wissensgraph- Validierung durch Kuratoren als auch die automatische Validierung. • Zur Unterstützung der Wissensgraph-Exploration wird ExCut vorgestellt, eine Methode zur Erzeugung von informativen Entitäts-Clustern mit Erklärungen unter Verwendung von Wissensgraph-Einbettungen und automatisch induzierten Regeln. Eine Cluster-Erklärung besteht aus einer Kombination von Relationen zwischen den Entitäten, die den Cluster identifizieren. ExCut verbessert gleichzeitig die Cluster- Qualität und die Cluster-Erklärbarkeit durch iteratives Verschränken des Lernens von Einbettungen und Regeln. Experimente zeigen, dass ExCut Cluster von hoher Qualität berechnet und dass die Cluster-Erklärungen für Nutzer informativ sind

Probabilistic Inductive Querying Using ProbLog

We study how probabilistic reasoning and inductive querying can be combined within ProbLog, a recent probabilistic extension of Prolog. ProbLog can be regarded as a database system that supports both probabilistic and inductive reasoning through a variety of querying mechanisms. After a short introduction to ProbLog, we provide a survey of the different types of inductive queries that ProbLog supports, and show how it can be applied to the mining of large biological networks.Peer reviewe

Challenges in macro-finance modeling

This article discusses various challenges in the specification and implementation of "macro-finance" models in which macroeconomic variables and term structure variables are modeled together in a no-arbitrage framework. The author classifies macro-finance models into pure latent-factor models ("internal basis models") and models that have observed macroeconomic variables as state variables ("external basis models") and examines the underlying assumptions behind these models. Particular attention is paid to the issue of unspanned short-run fluctuations in macroeconomic variables and their potentially adverse effect on the specification of external basis models. The author also discusses the challenge of addressing features such as structural breaks and time-varying inflation uncertainty. Empirical difficulties in the estimation and evaluation of macro-finance models are also discussed in detail.Econometric models ; Macroeconomics

Motivated Inductive Discovery

Research in machine discovery to date has tended to concentrate on the replication of particular episodes in the history of science, and more recently on the extraction of regularities from large databases. In this respect, current models of induction and discovery concentrate solely on the acquisition of knowledge, and lack the flexibility of reasoning that is necessary in a real-world changing environment. Against this backdrop, this dissertation addresses inductive reasoning, specifically based around the scientific discovery paradigm. A framework for inductive reasoning is presented which includes the six stages of prediction, experimentation, observation, evaluation, revision and selection. Within this framework, different kinds of inductive reasoning can be reduced to the same basic component processes. The difference between the various kinds of reasoning arises not through the use of different mechanisms, but through the influence of motivations which bias the application of these mechanisms accordingly. Also within this framework, a model and its implementation as a computer program, the MID system, have been developed, concentrating primarily on the internal stages of the framework, prediction, evaluation, revision and selection. The role of motivations in allowing reasoning for both knowledge and action is investigated and implemented in the program. By choosing different internal models of motivation for reasoning systems, different behaviours can be achieved from the same basic architecture. The MID system reasons in simple physical domains, both for knowledge and for action. It demonstrates how a basic mechanism can be used to provide an effective means for reasoning in a variety of contexts, and also how a simple motivational representation can be used as an effective control strategy

Approximate model composition for explanation generation

This thesis presents a framework for the formulation of knowledge models to sup¬ port the generation of explanations for engineering systems that are represented by the resulting models. Such models are automatically assembled from instantiated generic component descriptions, known as modelfragments. The model fragments are of suffi¬ cient detail that generally satisfies the requirements of information content as identified by the user asking for explanations. Through a combination of fuzzy logic based evidence preparation, which exploits the history of prior user preferences, and an approximate reasoning inference engine, with a Bayesian evidence propagation mechanism, different uncertainty sources can be han¬ dled. Model fragments, each representing structural or behavioural aspects of a com¬ ponent of the domain system of interest, are organised in a library. Those fragments that represent the same domain system component, albeit with different representation detail, form parts of the same assumption class in the library. Selected fragments are assembled to form an overall system model, prior to extraction of any textual infor¬ mation upon which to base the explanations. The thesis proposes and examines the techniques that support the fragment selection mechanism and the assembly of these fragments into models. In particular, a Bayesian network-based model fragment selection mechanism is de¬ scribed that forms the core of the work. The network structure is manually determined prior to any inference, based on schematic information regarding the connectivity of the components present in the domain system under consideration. The elicitation of network probabilities, on the other hand is completely automated using probability elicitation heuristics. These heuristics aim to provide the information required to select fragments which are maximally compatible with the given evidence of the fragments preferred by the user. Given such initial evidence, an existing evidence propagation algorithm is employed. The preparation of the evidence for the selection of certain fragments, based on user preference, is performed by a fuzzy reasoning evidence fab¬ rication engine. This engine uses a set of fuzzy rules and standard fuzzy reasoning mechanisms, attempting to guess the information needs of the user and suggesting the selection of fragments of sufficient detail to satisfy such needs. Once the evidence is propagated, a single fragment is selected for each of the domain system compo¬ nents and hence, the final model of the entire system is constructed. Finally, a highly configurable XML-based mechanism is employed to extract explanation content from the newly formulated model and to structure the explanatory sentences for the final explanation that will be communicated to the user. The framework is illustratively applied to a number of domain systems and is compared qualitatively to existing compositional modelling methodologies. A further empirical assessment of the performance of the evidence propagation algorithm is carried out to determine its performance limits. Performance is measured against the number of frag¬ ments that represent each of the components of a large domain system, and the amount of connectivity permitted in the Bayesian network between the nodes that stand for the selection or rejection of these fragments. Based on this assessment recommenda¬ tions are made as to how the framework may be optimised to cope with real world applications