Long-Term Load Forecasting Considering Volatility Using Multiplicative Error Model

Long-term load forecasting plays a vital role for utilities and planners in terms of grid development and expansion planning. An overestimate of long-term electricity load will result in substantial wasted investment in the construction of excess power facilities, while an underestimate of future load will result in insufficient generation and unmet demand. This paper presents first-of-its-kind approach to use multiplicative error model (MEM) in forecasting load for long-term horizon. MEM originates from the structure of autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model where conditional variance is dynamically parameterized and it multiplicatively interacts with an innovation term of time-series. Historical load data, accessed from a U.S. regional transmission operator, and recession data for years 1993-2016 is used in this study. The superiority of considering volatility is proven by out-of-sample forecast results as well as directional accuracy during the great economic recession of 2008. To incorporate future volatility, backtesting of MEM model is performed. Two performance indicators used to assess the proposed model are mean absolute percentage error (for both in-sample model fit and out-of-sample forecasts) and directional accuracy.Comment: 19 pages, 11 figures, 3 table

Electricity Peak Load Demand using De-noising Wavelet Transform integrated with Neural Network Methods

One of most important elements in electric power system planning is load forecasts. So, in this paper proposes the load demand forecasts using de-noising wavelet transform (DNWT) integrated with neural network (NN) methods. This research, the case study uses peak load demand of Thailand (Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand: EGAT). The data of demand will be analyzed with many influencing variables for selecting and classifying factors. In the research, the de-noising wavelet transform uses for decomposing the peak load signal into 2 components these are detail and trend components. The forecasting method using the neural network algorithm is used. The work results are shown a good performance of the model proposed. The result may be taken to the one of decision in the power systems operation

Developing a Web-based tourism demand forecasting system

2008-2009 > Academic research: refereed > Publication in refereed journalVersion of RecordPublishe

Forecasting methods in energy planning models

Energy planning models (EPMs) play an indispensable role in policy formulation and energy sector development. The forecasting of energy demand and supply is at the heart of an EPM. Different forecasting methods, from statistical to machine learning have been applied in the past. The selection of a forecasting method is mostly based on data availability and the objectives of the tool and planning exercise. We present a systematic and critical review of forecasting methods used in 483 EPMs. The methods were analyzed for forecasting accuracy; applicability for temporal and spatial predictions; and relevance to planning and policy objectives. Fifty different forecasting methods have been identified. Artificial neural network (ANN) is the most widely used method, which is applied in 40% of the reviewed EPMs. The other popular methods, in descending order, are: support vector machine (SVM), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), fuzzy logic (FL), linear regression (LR), genetic algorithm (GA), particle swarm optimization (PSO), grey prediction (GM) and autoregressive moving average (ARMA). In terms of accuracy, computational intelligence (CI) methods demonstrate better performance than that of the statistical ones, in particular for parameters with greater variability in the source data. However, hybrid methods yield better accuracy than that of the stand-alone ones. Statistical methods are useful for only short and medium range, while CI methods are preferable for all temporal forecasting ranges (short, medium and long). Based on objective, most EPMs focused on energy demand and load forecasting. In terms geographical coverage, the highest number of EPMs were developed on China. However, collectively, more models were established for the developed countries than the developing ones. Findings would benefit researchers and professionals in gaining an appreciation of the forecasting methods, and enable them to select appropriate method(s) to meet their needs

Artificial Neural Networks for Short-Term Load Forecasting in Microgrids Environment Energy

The adaptation of energy production to demand has been traditionally very important for utilities in order to optimize resource consumption. This is especially true also in microgrids where many intelligent elements have to adapt their behaviour depending on the future generation and consumption conditions. However, traditional forecasting has been performed only for extremely large areas, such as nations and regions. This work aims at presenting a solution for short-term load forecasting (STLF) in microgrids, based on a three-stage architecture which starts with pattern recognition by a self-organizing map (SOM), a clustering of the previous partition via k-means algorithm, and finally demand forecasting for each cluster with a multilayer perceptron. Model validation was performed with data from a microgrid-sized environment provided by the Spanish company Iberdrola. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.Hernandez, L.; Baladron, C.; Aguiar, JM.; Carro, B.; Sanchez-Esguevillas, A.; Lloret, J. (2014). Artificial Neural Networks for Short-Term Load Forecasting in Microgrids Environment Energy. Energy. 75:252-264. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2014.07.065S2522647

Wind Power Integration into Power Systems: Stability and Control Aspects

Power network operators are rapidly incorporating wind power generation into their power grids to meet the widely accepted carbon neutrality targets and facilitate the transition from conventional fossil-fuel energy sources to clean and low-carbon renewable energy sources. Complex stability issues, such as frequency, voltage, and oscillatory instability, are frequently reported in the power grids of many countries and regions (e.g., Germany, Denmark, Ireland, and South Australia) due to the substantially increased wind power generation. Control techniques, such as virtual/emulated inertia and damping controls, could be developed to address these stability issues, and additional devices, such as energy storage systems, can also be deployed to mitigate the adverse impact of high wind power generation on various system stability problems. Moreover, other wind power integration aspects, such as capacity planning and the short- and long-term forecasting of wind power generation, also require careful attention to ensure grid security and reliability. This book includes fourteen novel research articles published in this Energies Special Issue on Wind Power Integration into Power Systems: Stability and Control Aspects, with topics ranging from stability and control to system capacity planning and forecasting

Modeling renewable energy production and CO2 emissions in the region of Adrar in Algeria using LSTM neural networks

This paper addresses the slow-onset crisis of global warming caused by CO2 emissions. Although electrical load is a major influence in a country’s growth and development, it is also one of largest sources of greenhouse gases (GHG), CO2 in particular. Therefore, switching to cleaner energy sources is a clear objective and forecasting electricity load and its environmental cost is a necessary task for electrical energy planning and management. This paper addresses short-term load forecasting of renewable energy (RE) production in the region of Adrar in Algeria with Adrar’s photovoltaic (PV) farm and Kabertene’s wind farm. The forecast is compared to the overall load demand, and the reduced amount of CO2 resulting from using renewable energy instead of fossil fuels is calculated. The forecasting models are Long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks, which were trained and validated using real data provided by the national state-owned company SONALGAZ. The results show good performance for the forecasting models with PV and wind models achieving a Mean-absolute-error (MAE) of 0.024 and 0.1 respectively, and that RE can help reduce CO2 emissions by up to 25% per hour

Grey Signal Predictor and Fuzzy Controls for Active Vehicle Suspension Systems via Lyapunov Theory

In order to investigate and decide that the vehicle asymptotic vibration stability and improved comfort, the present paper deals with a fuzzy neural network (NN) evolved bat algorithm (EBA) backstepping adaptive controller based on grey signal predictors. The Lyapunov theory and backstepping method is utilized to appraise the math nonlinearity in the active vehicle suspension as well as acquire the final simulation control law in order to track the suitable signal. The Discrete Grey Model DGM (2,1) have been thus used to acquire prospect movement of the suspension system, so that the command controller can prove the convergence and the stability of the entire formula through the Lyapunov-like lemma. The controller overspreads the application range of mechanical elastic vehicle wheel (MEVW) as well as lays a favorable theoretic foundation in adapting to new wheels

Integrated computational intelligence and Japanese candlestick method for short-term financial forecasting

This research presents a study of intelligent stock price forecasting systems using interval type-2 fuzzy logic for analyzing Japanese candlestick techniques. Many intelligent financial forecasting models have been developed to predict stock prices, but many of them do not perform well under unstable market conditions. One reason for poor performance is that stock price forecasting is very complex, and many factors are involved in stock price movement. In this environment, two kinds of information exist, including quantitative data, such as actual stock prices, and qualitative data, such as stock traders\u27 opinions and expertise. Japanese candlestick techniques have been proven to be effective methods for describing the market psychology. This study is motivated by the challenges of implementing Japanese candlestick techniques to computational intelligent systems to forecast stock prices. The quantitative information, Japanese candlestick definitions, is managed by type-2 fuzzy logic systems. The qualitative data sets for the stock market are handled by a hybrid type of dynamic committee machine architecture. Inside this committee machine, generalized regression neural network-based experts handle actual stock prices for monitoring price movements. Neural network architecture is an effective tool for function approximation problems such as forecasting. Few studies have explored integrating intelligent systems and Japanese candlestick methods for stock price forecasting. The proposed model shows promising results. This research, derived from the interval type-2 fuzzy logic system, contributes to the understanding of Japanese candlestick techniques and becomes a potential resource for future financial market forecasting studies --Abstract, page iii