A Change-Point Regression Approach for Efficacy Evaluation of Dietary Supplements

In clinical trials for dietary supplements and functional foods, the study population tends to be a mixture of healthy subjects and those who are not so healthy but are not definitely diseased (called “borderline subjects”). For such heterogeneous populations, the t-test and ANCOVA method often fail to provide the desired treatment efficacy. We propose an alternative approach for the efficacy evaluation of dietary supplements and functional foods based on a change-point linear regression model. The model does not require the assumption of a constant treatment effect and provides clinically interpretable results. By employing the AIC-based profile likelihood method, inferences can be made easily using standard statistical software. The proposed method was applied to the Garcinia study data, and the merit of the method was demonstrated by comparing it with traditional methods

Retrieving Decadal Climate Change from Satellite Radiance Observations-A 100-year CO2 Doubling OSSE Demonstration.

Preparing for climate change depends on the observation and prediction of decadal trends of the environmental variables, which have a direct impact on the sustainability of resources affecting the quality of life on our planet. The NASA Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) mission is proposed to provide climate quality benchmark spectral radiance observations for the purpose of determining the decadal trends of climate variables, and validating and improving the long-range climate model forecasts needed to prepare for the changing climate of the Earth. The CLARREO will serve as an in-orbit, absolute, radiometric standard for the cross-calibration of hyperspectral radiance spectra observed by the international system of polar operational satellite sounding sensors. Here, we demonstrate that the resulting accurately cross-calibrated polar satellite global infrared spectral radiance trends (e.g., from the Metop IASI instrument considered here) can be interpreted in terms of temperature and water vapor profile trends. This demonstration is performed using atmospheric state data generated for a 100-year period from 2000-2099, produced by a numerical climate model prediction that was forced by the doubling of the global average atmospheric CO2 over the 100-year period. The vertical profiles and spatial distribution of temperature decadal trends were successfully diagnosed by applying a linear regression profile retrieval algorithm to the simulated hyperspectral radiance spectra for the 100-year period. These results indicate that it is possible to detect decadal trends in atmospheric climate variables from high accuracy all-sky satellite infrared radiance spectra using the linear regression retrieval technique

Evidence of Odderon-exchange from scaling properties of elastic scattering at TeV energies

We study the scaling properties of the differential cross section of elastic proton-proton ($pp$) and proton-antiproton ($p\bar p$) collisions at high energies. We introduce a new scaling function, that scales -- within the experimental errors -- all the ISR data on elastic $pp$ scattering from $\sqrt{s} = 23.5$ to $62.5$ GeV to the same universal curve. We explore the scaling properties of the differential cross-sections of the elastic $pp$ and $p\bar p$ collisions in a limited TeV energy range. Rescaling the TOTEM $pp$ data from $\sqrt{s} = 7$ TeV to $2.76$ and $1.96$ TeV, and comparing it to D0 $p\bar p$ data at $1.96$ TeV, our results provide an evidence for a $t$-channel Odderon exchange at TeV energies, with a significance of at least 6.26$\sigma$. We complete this work with a model-dependent evaluation of the domain of validity of the new scaling and its violations. We find that the $H(x)$ scaling is valid, model dependently, within $200$ GeV $\leq \sqrt{s} \leq$ $8$ TeV, with a $-t$ range gradually narrowing with decreasing colliding energies.Comment: Accepted in EPJ C, with typos fixed, reorganized institutions updated, Appendix A, B, C, D, E added, 60 pages, 29 figures, 13 tables, Odderon significance: 6.26 sigma, conclusions unchange

Milky Way Kinematics: Measurements at the Subcentral Point of the Fourth Quadrant

We use atomic hydrogen (HI) data from the Southern Galactic Plane Survey to study the kinematics of the fourth quadrant of the Milky Way. By measuring the terminal velocity as a function of longitude throughout the fourth Galactic quadrant we have derived the most densely sampled rotation curve available for the Milky Way between 3 < R < 8 kpc. We determine a new joint rotation curve fit for the first and fourth quadrants, which can be used for kinematic distances interior to the Solar circle. From our data we place new limits on the peak to peak variation of streaming motions in the fourth quadrant to be ~10 km/s. We show that the shape of the average HI profile beyond the terminal velocity is consistent with gas of three velocity dispersions, a cold component with $\Delta v=6.3$ km/s, a warmer component with $\Delta v=12.3$ km/s and a fast component with $\Delta v=25.9$ km/s. Examining the widths with Galactic radius we find that the narrowest two components show little variation with radius and their small scale fluctuations track each other very well, suggesting that they share the same cloud-to-cloud motions. The width of the widest component is constant until R<4 kpc, where it increases sharply.Comment: 36 pages, 10 figures, accepted to ApJ. Full electronic version of table 1 available at ftp://ftp.atnf.csiro.au/pub/people/nmcclure/papers/velocity_tab1.te

Non-parametric mass reconstruction of A1689 from strong lensing data with SLAP

We present the mass distribution in the central area of the cluster A1689 by fitting over 100 multiply lensed images with the non-parametric Strong Lensing Analysis Package (SLAP, Diego et al. 2004). The surface mass distribution is obtained in a robust way finding a total mass of 0.25E15 M_sun/h within a 70'' circle radius from the central peak. Our reconstructed density profile fits well an NFW profile with small perturbations due to substructure and is compatible with the more model dependent analysis of Broadhurst et al. (2004a) based on the same data. Our estimated mass does not rely on any prior information about the distribution of dark matter in the cluster. The peak of the mass distribution falls very close to the central cD and there is substructure near the center suggesting that the cluster is not fully relaxed. We also examine the effect on the recovered mass when we include the uncertainties in the redshift of the sources and in the original shape of the sources. Using simulations designed to mimic the data, we identify some biases in our reconstructed mass distribution. We find that the recovered mass is biased toward lower masses beyond 1 arcmin (150 kpc) from the central cD and that in the very center we may be affected by degeneracy problems. On the other hand, we confirm that the reconstructed mass between 25'' and 70'' is a robust, unbiased estimate of the true mass distribution and is compatible with an NFW profile.Comment: 11 pages, 12 figures. MNRAS submitted. A full resolution of the paper can be found in http://darwin.physics.upenn.edu/SLAP

Variation of the Diameter of the Sun as Measured by the Solar Disk Sextant (SDS)

The balloon-borne Solar Disk Sextant (SDS) experiment has measured the angular size of the Sun on seven occasions spanning the years 1992 to 2011. The solar half-diameter -- observed in a 100-nm wide passband centred at 615 nm -- is found to vary over that period by up to 200 mas, while the typical estimated uncertainty of each measure is 20 mas. The diameter variation is not in phase with the solar activity cycle; thus, the measured diameter variation cannot be explained as an observational artefact of surface activity. Other possible instrument-related explanations for the observed variation are considered but found unlikely, leading us to conclude that the variation is real. The SDS is described here in detail, as is the complete analysis procedure necessary to calibrate the instrument and allow comparison of diameter measures across decades.Comment: 41 pages; appendix and 2 figures added plus some changes in text based on referee's comments; to appear in MNRA