Reliability analysis for systems with outsourced components

The current business model for many industrial firms is to function as system integrators, depending on numerous outsourced components from outside component suppliers. This practice has resulted in tremendous cost savings; it makes system reliability analysis, however, more challenging due to the limited component information available to system designers. The component information is often proprietary to component suppliers. Motivated by the need of system reliability prediction with outsourced components, this work aims to explore feasible ways to accurately predict the system reliability during the system design stage. Four methods are proposed. The first method reconstructs component reliability functions using limited reliability data with respect to component loads, and the system reliability is then estimated statistically. The second method applies two-class support vector machines (SVM) to approximate limit-state functions of outsourced components based on the categorical reliability dataset. With the integration of the obtained limit-state functions and those of in-house components, the joint probability density function of all the components is estimated, thereby leading to accurate system reliability prediction. The third method is an extension of the second one, and a one-class SVM is proposed to rebuild limit-state functions for outsourced components given only the failure dataset. The last method deals with the case where no reliability dataset is available. A partial safety factor method is developed, which enables component suppliers to provide sufficient information to system designers for accurate reliability analysis without revealing the proprietary design details. Both numerical examples and engineering applications demonstrate the accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed methods --Abstract, page iv

Optimal design for power system dynamic stabilizer by grey prediction PID control

[[abstract]]In this paper, we proposed an effective method to design the power system stabilizers (PSS). The design of a PSS can be formulated as an optimal linear regulator control problem; however, implementing this technique requires the design of estimators. This increases the implementation and reduces the reliability of control system. Therefore, favor a control scheme that uses only some desired state variables, such as torque angle and speed. To deal with this problem, we use the optimal reduced models to reduce the power system model into two state variables system by each generator and use grey prediction PID control to find control signal of each generator. Moreover, we will apply genetic algorithms (GAs) to find the appropriate parameter values for the desired system. Finally, the advantages of the proposed method are illustrated by numerical simulation of the two machines-infinite-bus power systems.[[conferencetype]]國際[[conferencedate]]20021211~20021214[[booktype]]紙本[[iscallforpapers]]Y[[conferencelocation]]Bangkok, Thailan

A Hierarchical Framework of Cloud Resource Allocation and Power Management Using Deep Reinforcement Learning

Automatic decision-making approaches, such as reinforcement learning (RL), have been applied to (partially) solve the resource allocation problem adaptively in the cloud computing system. However, a complete cloud resource allocation framework exhibits high dimensions in state and action spaces, which prohibit the usefulness of traditional RL techniques. In addition, high power consumption has become one of the critical concerns in design and control of cloud computing systems, which degrades system reliability and increases cooling cost. An effective dynamic power management (DPM) policy should minimize power consumption while maintaining performance degradation within an acceptable level. Thus, a joint virtual machine (VM) resource allocation and power management framework is critical to the overall cloud computing system. Moreover, novel solution framework is necessary to address the even higher dimensions in state and action spaces. In this paper, we propose a novel hierarchical framework for solving the overall resource allocation and power management problem in cloud computing systems. The proposed hierarchical framework comprises a global tier for VM resource allocation to the servers and a local tier for distributed power management of local servers. The emerging deep reinforcement learning (DRL) technique, which can deal with complicated control problems with large state space, is adopted to solve the global tier problem. Furthermore, an autoencoder and a novel weight sharing structure are adopted to handle the high-dimensional state space and accelerate the convergence speed. On the other hand, the local tier of distributed server power managements comprises an LSTM based workload predictor and a model-free RL based power manager, operating in a distributed manner.Comment: accepted by 37th IEEE International Conference on Distributed Computing (ICDCS 2017

Metamodel-based importance sampling for the simulation of rare events

In the field of structural reliability, the Monte-Carlo estimator is considered as the reference probability estimator. However, it is still untractable for real engineering cases since it requires a high number of runs of the model. In order to reduce the number of computer experiments, many other approaches known as reliability methods have been proposed. A certain approach consists in replacing the original experiment by a surrogate which is much faster to evaluate. Nevertheless, it is often difficult (or even impossible) to quantify the error made by this substitution. In this paper an alternative approach is developed. It takes advantage of the kriging meta-modeling and importance sampling techniques. The proposed alternative estimator is finally applied to a finite element based structural reliability analysis.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures, 1 table. Preprint submitted to ICASP11 Mini-symposia entitled "Meta-models/surrogate models for uncertainty propagation, sensitivity and reliability analysis

Rational Choice of Machining Tools Using Prediction Procedures

Introducing the methods and procedures for predictive analysis into the design process contours of a variety of machining tools (MT) of metal cutting machines is the main aim of this article. A sequence of realization of prediction object (PO) choice as an initial stage of search of perspective designs is offered. Effective in this regard is the "Tree of objectives" apparatus, on the basis of which many ways of improving MT are formed, selecting progressive (reducing the dimension of the problem) at each level of the hierarchy of the constructed graph-tree. The procedure for selecting the prediction method (PM) as a means of generating the forecast data is developed. The task of choosing a method is structured in detail and uses "Information supply"as the main criterion. To this end, assessment scales of choice criteria have been formed, on the basis of which it is possible to evaluate their effectiveness for the PM selection process. The rules forPOcoding are introduced by a three-element information code, including information source classes – static data, expert estimates and patent data. The process of forecasting the MT components by the method of engineering forecasting on the basis of a representative patent fund is realized. The General Definition Table has been built (GDT "Machining tools") and estimates of the prospects of design solutions have been obtained. A fragment of the database of 3D models of promising MT designs in the integrated computer-aided design KOMPAS-3D is proposed

Prognostics with autoregressive moving average for railway turnouts

Turnout systems are one of the most critical systems on railway infrastructure. Diagnostics and prognostics on turnout system have ability to increase the reliability & availability and reduce the downtime of the railway infrastructure. Even though diagnostics on railway turnout systems have been reported in the literature, reported studies on prognostics in railway turnout system is very sparse. This paper presents autoregressive moving average model based prognostics on railway turnouts. The model is applied to data collected from real turnout systems. The failure progression is obtained manually using the exponential degradation model. Remaining Useful Life of ten turnout systems have been reported and results are very promising

DC-Prophet: Predicting Catastrophic Machine Failures in DataCenters

When will a server fail catastrophically in an industrial datacenter? Is it possible to forecast these failures so preventive actions can be taken to increase the reliability of a datacenter? To answer these questions, we have studied what are probably the largest, publicly available datacenter traces, containing more than 104 million events from 12,500 machines. Among these samples, we observe and categorize three types of machine failures, all of which are catastrophic and may lead to information loss, or even worse, reliability degradation of a datacenter. We further propose a two-stage framework-DC-Prophet-based on One-Class Support Vector Machine and Random Forest. DC-Prophet extracts surprising patterns and accurately predicts the next failure of a machine. Experimental results show that DC-Prophet achieves an AUC of 0.93 in predicting the next machine failure, and a F3-score of 0.88 (out of 1). On average, DC-Prophet outperforms other classical machine learning methods by 39.45% in F3-score.Comment: 13 pages, 5 figures, accepted by 2017 ECML PKD

ELM regime classification by conformal prediction on an information manifold

Characterization and control of plasma instabilities known as edge-localized modes (ELMs) is crucial for the operation of fusion reactors. Recently, machine learning methods have demonstrated good potential in making useful inferences from stochastic fusion data sets. However, traditional classification methods do not offer an inherent estimate of the goodness of their prediction. In this paper, a distance-based conformal predictor classifier integrated with a geometric-probabilistic framework is presented. The first benefit of the approach lies in its comprehensive treatment of highly stochastic fusion data sets, by modeling the measurements with probability distributions in a metric space. This enables calculation of a natural distance measure between probability distributions: the Rao geodesic distance. Second, the predictions are accompanied by estimates of their accuracy and reliability. The method is applied to the classification of regimes characterized by different types of ELMs based on the measurements of global parameters and their error bars. This yields promising success rates and outperforms state-of-the-art automatic techniques for recognizing ELM signatures. The estimates of goodness of the predictions increase the confidence of classification by ELM experts, while allowing more reliable decisions regarding plasma control and at the same time increasing the robustness of the control system