Development of a Timed Coloured Petri Net Model for Time-of-Day Signal Timing Plan Transitions

In many countries, traffic signal control is one of the most cost effective means of improving urban mobility. Nevertheless, the signal control can be grouped into two principal classes, namely traffic-response and fixed-time. Precisely, a traffic response signal controller changes timing plan in real time according to traffic conditions while a fixed-time signal controller deploys multiple signal timing plans to cater for traffic demand changes during a day. To handle different traffic scenarios via fixed-time signal controls, traffic engineers determine such time-of-day intervals manually using one or two days worth of traffic data. That is, owing to significant variation in traffic volumes, the efficient use of fixed-time signal controllers depends primarily on selecting a number of signal timing plans within a day. In this paper, a Timed Coloured Petri Net (TCPN) formalism was explored to model transition between four signal timing plans of a traffic light control system such that a morning peak signal timing plan handles traffic demand between the hours of 6:00 am and 8:30 am, followed by afternoon I and afternoon II signal timing plans which handle traffic demands from 8:30 am to 3:00 pm and from 3:00 pm to 7:00 pm respectively, while the off peak plan handles traffic demands from 7:00 pm to 9:00 pm. Other hours of the day are ignored since they are characterized by low traffic demands. Keywords: Signal timing plan, Petri nets, Time-of-day, Model, Traffic, Fixed-time

ENHANCED SCHEDULING TRAFFIC LIGHT MODEL USING DISCRETE EVENT SIMULATION FOR IMPROVED SIGNAL TIMING ANALYSIS

Most traffic light today used pre-timed traffic light, traffic light using sensors and traffic light which displaying a countdown timer. However, the existing methods consume a long time of vehicle queuing and waiting the traffic light signals to change, which created congestion at intersection of roads. In this paper, the proposed model enhanced the scheduling traffic light, which simulates the vehicle behaviour based on discrete event simulation and queue theory. Therefore, the simulation becomes more realistic and contributes to accurate outcome. This work focuses on the analysis of the average waiting time for the vehicle in three cases: heavy, medium and low traffic volume. The most optimum traffic signal timing is the one with minimum waiting time for the vehicles. Moreover, the new model solves the critical traffic congestion problem not only in simulation but also in real environment, which drivers take the longest average waiting time is 86 seconds while the shortest average waiting time is 64 seconds at the junction although in heavy traffic congestion. An extensive simulations have been conducted in this work in which a green interval as a control parameter is selected

Evaluating Resilience of Cyber-Physical-Social Systems

Nowadays, protecting the network is not the only security concern. Still, in cyber security, websites and servers are becoming more popular as targets due to the ease with which they can be accessed when compared to communication networks. Another threat in cyber physical social systems with human interactions is that they can be attacked and manipulated not only by technical hacking through networks, but also by manipulating people and stealing users’ credentials. Therefore, systems should be evaluated beyond cy- ber security, which means measuring their resilience as a piece of evidence that a system works properly under cyber-attacks or incidents. In that way, cyber resilience is increas- ingly discussed and described as the capacity of a system to maintain state awareness for detecting cyber-attacks. All the tasks for making a system resilient should proactively maintain a safe level of operational normalcy through rapid system reconfiguration to detect attacks that would impact system performance. In this work, we broadly studied a new paradigm of cyber physical social systems and defined a uniform definition of it. To overcome the complexity of evaluating cyber resilience, especially in these inhomo- geneous systems, we proposed a framework including applying Attack Tree refinements and Hierarchical Timed Coloured Petri Nets to model intruder and defender behaviors and evaluate the impact of each action on the behavior and performance of the system.Hoje em dia, proteger a rede não é a única preocupação de segurança. Ainda assim, na segurança cibernética, sites e servidores estão se tornando mais populares como alvos devido à facilidade com que podem ser acessados quando comparados às redes de comu- nicação. Outra ameaça em sistemas sociais ciberfisicos com interações humanas é que eles podem ser atacados e manipulados não apenas por hackers técnicos através de redes, mas também pela manipulação de pessoas e roubo de credenciais de utilizadores. Portanto, os sistemas devem ser avaliados para além da segurança cibernética, o que significa medir sua resiliência como uma evidência de que um sistema funciona adequadamente sob ataques ou incidentes cibernéticos. Dessa forma, a resiliência cibernética é cada vez mais discutida e descrita como a capacidade de um sistema manter a consciência do estado para detectar ataques cibernéticos. Todas as tarefas para tornar um sistema resiliente devem manter proativamente um nível seguro de normalidade operacional por meio da reconfi- guração rápida do sistema para detectar ataques que afetariam o desempenho do sistema. Neste trabalho, um novo paradigma de sistemas sociais ciberfisicos é amplamente estu- dado e uma definição uniforme é proposta. Para superar a complexidade de avaliar a resiliência cibernética, especialmente nesses sistemas não homogéneos, é proposta uma estrutura que inclui a aplicação de refinamentos de Árvores de Ataque e Redes de Petri Coloridas Temporizadas Hierárquicas para modelar comportamentos de invasores e de- fensores e avaliar o impacto de cada ação no comportamento e desempenho do sistema

Safety‐oriented discrete event model for airport A‐SMGCS reliability assessment

A detailed analysis of State of the Art Technologies and Procedures into Airport Advanced-Surface Movement Guidance and Control Systems has been provided in this thesis, together with the review ofStatistical Monte Carlo Analysis, Reliability Assessment and Petri Nets theories. This practical and theoretical background has lead the author to the conclusion that there is a lack of linkage in between these fields. At the same of time the rapid increasing of Air Traffic all over the world, has brought in evidence the urgent need of practical instruments able to identify and quantify the risks connected with Aircraft operations on the ground, since the Airport has shown to be the actual ‘bottle neck’ of the entire Air Transport System. Therefore, the only winning approach to such a critical matter has to be multi-disciplinary, sewing together apparently different subjects, coming from the most disparate areas of interest and trying to fulfil the gap. The result of this thesis work has come to a start towards the end, when a Timed Coloured Petri Net (TCPN) model of a ‘sample’ Airport A-SMGCS has been developed, that is capable of taking into account different orders of questions arisen during these recent years and tries to give them some good answers. The A-SMGCS Airport model is, in the end, a parametric tool relying on Discrete Event System theory, able to perform a Reliability Analysis of the system itself, that: • uses a Monte Carlo Analysis applied to a Timed Coloured Petri Net, whose purpose is to evaluate the Safety Level of Surface Movements along an Airport • lets the user to analyse the impact of Procedures and Reliability Indexes of Systems such as Surface Movement Radars, Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast, Airport Lighting Systems, Microwave Sensors, and so on… onto the Safety Level of Airport Aircraft Transport System • not only is a valid instrument in the Design Phase, but it is useful also into the Certifying Activities an in monitoring the Safety Level of the above mentioned System with respect to changes to Technologies and different Procedures.This TCPN model has been verified against qualitative engineering expectations by using simulation experiments and occupancy time schedules generated a priori. Simulation times are good, and since the model has been written into Simulink/Stateflow programming language, it can be compiled to run real-time in C language (Real-time workshop and Stateflow Coder), thus relying on portable code, able to run virtually on any platform, giving even better performances in terms of execution time. One of the most interesting applications of this work is the estimate, for an Airport, of the kind of A-SMGCS level of implementation needed (Technical/Economical convenience evaluation). As a matter of fact, starting from the Traffic Volume and choosing the kind of Ground Equipment to be installed, one can make predictions about the Safety Level of the System: if the value is compliant with the TLS required by ICAO, the A-SMGCS level of Implementation is sufficiently adequate. Nevertheless, even if the Level of Safety has been satisfied, some delays due to reduced or simplified performances (even if Safety is compliant) of some of the equipment (e.g. with reference to False Alarm Rates) can lead to previously unexpected economical consequences, thus requiring more accurate systems to be installed, in order to meet also Airport economical constraints. Work in progress includes the analysis of the effect of weather conditions and re-sequencing of a given schedule. The effect of re-sequencing a given schedule is not yet enough realistic since the model does not apply inter arrival and departure separations. However, the model might show some effect on different sequences based on runway occupancy times. A further developed model containing wake turbulence separation conditions would be more sensitive for this case. Hence, further work will be directed towards: • The development of On-Line Re-Scheduling based on the available actual runway/taxiway configuration and weather conditions. • The Engineering Safety Assessment of some small Italian Airport A-SMGCSs (Model validation with real data). • The application of Stochastic Differential Equations systems in order to evaluate the collision risk on the ground inside the Place alone on the Petri Net, in the event of a Short Term Conflict Alert (STCA), by adopting Reich Collision Risk Model. • Optimal Air Traffic Control Algorithms Synthesis (Adaptive look-ahead Optimization), by Dynamically Timed Coloured Petri Nets, together with the implementation of Error-Recovery Strategies and Diagnosis Functions

Use of Petri Nets to Manage Civil Engineering Infrastructures

Over the last years there has been a shift, in the most developed countries, in investment and efforts within the construction sector. On the one hand, these countries have built infrastructures able to respond to current needs over the last decades, reducing the need for investments in new infrastructures now and in the near future. On the other hand, most of the infrastructures present clear signs of deterioration, making it fundamental to invest correctly in their recovery. The ageing of infrastructure together with the scarce budgets available for maintenance and rehabilitation are the main reasons for the development of decision support tools, as a mean to maximize the impact of investments. The objective of the present work is to develop a methodology for optimizing maintenance strategies, considering the available information on infrastructure degradation and the impact of maintenance in economic terms and loss of functionality, making possible the implementation of a management system transversal to different types of civil engineering infrastructures. The methodology used in the deterioration model is based on the concept of timed Petri nets. The maintenance model was built from the deterioration model, including the inspection, maintenance and renewal processes. The optimization of maintenance is performed through genetic algorithms. The deterioration and maintenance model was applied to components of two types of infrastructure: bridges (pre-stressed concrete decks and bearings) and buildings (ceramic claddings). The complete management system was used to analyse a section of a road network. All examples are based on Portuguese data

Modelling methodologies for railway asset management

Management of railway assets incurs significant expenditure. Railway asset management modelling can predict the cost and efficacy of an asset management plan, and thus support the asset management planning process. Modelling frameworks can be used to facilitate the development of large, multi-asset, whole life cycle models which can be used to represent large sections of rail track and associated assets. This is achieved with libraries of models and tools with a high level of inter-compatibility. This research set out to support the development of modelling frameworks for railway asset management. It sought to determine the state of the art of railway asset management modelling in order to find which assets require further modelling development before they can be suitably represented in a framework’s model library. It also sought to determine the most accurate and suitable modelling methodology to base the framework upon. These aims were met by first carrying out a literature review to determine the state of the art of asset management modelling for major railway asset types. This review found Petri net models solved via Monte Carlo methods to be the most suitable modelling methodology for asset management. The level crossing asset class was chosen for the development of several models to explore the different types of Petri net model, concentrating on the computational resources required. This asset class was chosen as no asset management model was found in literature, and the diversity of the asset interactions. Literature review found several asset classes in need of further development, and some where asset management modelling may not be possible without other advances. The level crossing Petri net models developed demonstrated that computational requirements differ between the various types of Petri net. Stochastic Petri nets were found to simulate quickly, but had a high memory requirement. Coloured Petri nets were found to have the opposite requirements. A novel Petri net type, the Simple Coloured Petri net was developed to create a balance in computational cost. It was further found that complex processes such as scheduling and resource allocation can only be carried out using Coloured Petri nets due to their enhanced feature set. This work has found that further research on modelling specific asset classes is required to enable the development of a complete asset modelling library for use in a framework. If large models are to be developed, it is recommended that the Simple Coloured Petri net be used to balance computational requirements. Any models requiring complex functions should be developed using the Coloured Petri net methodology

An Intelligent Transportation System to control air pollution and road traffic in cities ntegrating CEP and Colored Petri Nets

Air pollution generated by road traffic in large cities is a great concern in today’s society since pollution has an important impact on human health, even causing premature deaths. To address the problem, this paper presents an Intelligent Transportation System model based on Complex Event Processing technology and Colored Petri Nets (CPNs). It takes into consideration the levels of environmental pollution and road traffic, according to the air quality levels accepted by the international recommendations as well as the handbook emission factors for road transport methodology. This proposal, therefore, tackles a common problem in today’s large cities, where traffic restrictions must be applied due to environmental pollution. CPNs are used in this work as a tool to make decisions about traffic regulations, so as to reduce pollution levels

Modelling methodologies for railway asset management

Management of railway assets incurs significant expenditure. Railway asset management modelling can predict the cost and efficacy of an asset management plan, and thus support the asset management planning process. Modelling frameworks can be used to facilitate the development of large, multi-asset, whole life cycle models which can be used to represent large sections of rail track and associated assets. This is achieved with libraries of models and tools with a high level of inter-compatibility. This research set out to support the development of modelling frameworks for railway asset management. It sought to determine the state of the art of railway asset management modelling in order to find which assets require further modelling development before they can be suitably represented in a framework’s model library. It also sought to determine the most accurate and suitable modelling methodology to base the framework upon. These aims were met by first carrying out a literature review to determine the state of the art of asset management modelling for major railway asset types. This review found Petri net models solved via Monte Carlo methods to be the most suitable modelling methodology for asset management. The level crossing asset class was chosen for the development of several models to explore the different types of Petri net model, concentrating on the computational resources required. This asset class was chosen as no asset management model was found in literature, and the diversity of the asset interactions. Literature review found several asset classes in need of further development, and some where asset management modelling may not be possible without other advances. The level crossing Petri net models developed demonstrated that computational requirements differ between the various types of Petri net. Stochastic Petri nets were found to simulate quickly, but had a high memory requirement. Coloured Petri nets were found to have the opposite requirements. A novel Petri net type, the Simple Coloured Petri net was developed to create a balance in computational cost. It was further found that complex processes such as scheduling and resource allocation can only be carried out using Coloured Petri nets due to their enhanced feature set. This work has found that further research on modelling specific asset classes is required to enable the development of a complete asset modelling library for use in a framework. If large models are to be developed, it is recommended that the Simple Coloured Petri net be used to balance computational requirements. Any models requiring complex functions should be developed using the Coloured Petri net methodology

GIS in Healthcare

The landscape of healthcare is dynamic, gradually becoming more complicated with factors beyond simple supply and demand. Similar to the diversity of social, political and economic contexts, the practical utilization of healthcare resources also varies around the world. However, the spatial components of these contexts, along with aspects of supply and demand, can reveal a common theme among these factors. This book presents advancements in GIS applications that reveal the complexity of and solutions for a dynamic healthcare landscape