Security and privacy of users\u27 personal Information on smartphones

 This research investigated the proliferation of malicious applications on smartphones and a framework that can efficiently detect and classify such applications based on behavioural patterns was proposed. Additionally the causes and impact of unauthorised disclosure of personal information by clean applications were examined and countermeasures to protect smartphone users’ privacy were proposed

A Comprehensive Survey on Enterprise Financial Risk Analysis: Problems, Methods, Spotlights and Applications

Enterprise financial risk analysis aims at predicting the enterprises' future financial risk.Due to the wide application, enterprise financial risk analysis has always been a core research issue in finance. Although there are already some valuable and impressive surveys on risk management, these surveys introduce approaches in a relatively isolated way and lack the recent advances in enterprise financial risk analysis. Due to the rapid expansion of the enterprise financial risk analysis, especially from the computer science and big data perspective, it is both necessary and challenging to comprehensively review the relevant studies. This survey attempts to connect and systematize the existing enterprise financial risk researches, as well as to summarize and interpret the mechanisms and the strategies of enterprise financial risk analysis in a comprehensive way, which may help readers have a better understanding of the current research status and ideas. This paper provides a systematic literature review of over 300 articles published on enterprise risk analysis modelling over a 50-year period, 1968 to 2022. We first introduce the formal definition of enterprise risk as well as the related concepts. Then, we categorized the representative works in terms of risk type and summarized the three aspects of risk analysis. Finally, we compared the analysis methods used to model the enterprise financial risk. Our goal is to clarify current cutting-edge research and its possible future directions to model enterprise risk, aiming to fully understand the mechanisms of enterprise risk communication and influence and its application on corporate governance, financial institution and government regulation

From metaheuristics to learnheuristics: Applications to logistics, finance, and computing

Un gran nombre de processos de presa de decisions en sectors estratègics com el transport i la producció representen problemes NP-difícils. Sovint, aquests processos es caracteritzen per alts nivells d'incertesa i dinamisme. Les metaheurístiques són mètodes populars per a resoldre problemes d'optimització difícils en temps de càlcul raonables. No obstant això, sovint assumeixen que els inputs, les funcions objectiu, i les restriccions són deterministes i conegudes. Aquests constitueixen supòsits forts que obliguen a treballar amb problemes simplificats. Com a conseqüència, les solucions poden conduir a resultats pobres. Les simheurístiques integren la simulació a les metaheurístiques per resoldre problemes estocàstics d'una manera natural. Anàlogament, les learnheurístiques combinen l'estadística amb les metaheurístiques per fer front a problemes en entorns dinàmics, en què els inputs poden dependre de l'estructura de la solució. En aquest context, les principals contribucions d'aquesta tesi són: el disseny de les learnheurístiques, una classificació dels treballs que combinen l'estadística / l'aprenentatge automàtic i les metaheurístiques, i diverses aplicacions en transport, producció, finances i computació.Un gran número de procesos de toma de decisiones en sectores estratégicos como el transporte y la producción representan problemas NP-difíciles. Frecuentemente, estos problemas se caracterizan por altos niveles de incertidumbre y dinamismo. Las metaheurísticas son métodos populares para resolver problemas difíciles de optimización de manera rápida. Sin embargo, suelen asumir que los inputs, las funciones objetivo y las restricciones son deterministas y se conocen de antemano. Estas fuertes suposiciones conducen a trabajar con problemas simplificados. Como consecuencia, las soluciones obtenidas pueden tener un pobre rendimiento. Las simheurísticas integran simulación en metaheurísticas para resolver problemas estocásticos de una manera natural. De manera similar, las learnheurísticas combinan aprendizaje estadístico y metaheurísticas para abordar problemas en entornos dinámicos, donde los inputs pueden depender de la estructura de la solución. En este contexto, las principales aportaciones de esta tesis son: el diseño de las learnheurísticas, una clasificación de trabajos que combinan estadística / aprendizaje automático y metaheurísticas, y varias aplicaciones en transporte, producción, finanzas y computación.A large number of decision-making processes in strategic sectors such as transport and production involve NP-hard problems, which are frequently characterized by high levels of uncertainty and dynamism. Metaheuristics have become the predominant method for solving challenging optimization problems in reasonable computing times. However, they frequently assume that inputs, objective functions and constraints are deterministic and known in advance. These strong assumptions lead to work on oversimplified problems, and the solutions may demonstrate poor performance when implemented. Simheuristics, in turn, integrate simulation into metaheuristics as a way to naturally solve stochastic problems, and, in a similar fashion, learnheuristics combine statistical learning and metaheuristics to tackle problems in dynamic environments, where inputs may depend on the structure of the solution. The main contributions of this thesis include (i) a design for learnheuristics; (ii) a classification of works that hybridize statistical and machine learning and metaheuristics; and (iii) several applications for the fields of transport, production, finance and computing

Machine Learning and Natural Language Processing in Stock Prediction

In this thesis, we first study the two ill-posed natural language processing tasks related to stock prediction, i.e. stock movement prediction and financial document-level event extraction. While implementing stock prediction and event extraction, we encountered difficulties that could be resolved by utilizing out-of-distribution detection. Consequently, we presented a new approach for out-of-distribution detection, which is the third focus of this thesis. First, we systematically build a platform to study the NLP-aided stock auto-trading algorithms. Our platform is characterized by three features: (1) We provide financial news for each specific stock. (2) We provide various stock factors for each stock. (3) We evaluate performance from more financial-relevant metrics. Such a design allows us to develop and evaluate NLP-aided stock auto-trading algorithms in a more realistic setting. We also propose a system to automatically learn a good feature representation from various input information. The key to our algorithm is a method called semantic role labelling Pooling (SRLP), which leverages Semantic Role Labeling (SRL) to create a compact representation of each news paragraph. Based on SRLP, we further incorporate other stock factors to make the stock movement prediction. In addition, we propose a self-supervised learning strategy based on SRLP to enhance the out-of-distribution generalization performance of our system. Through our experimental study, we show that the proposed method achieves better performance and outperforms all strong baselines’ annualized rate of return as well as the maximum drawdown in back-testing. Second, we propose a generative solution for document-level event extraction that takes into account recent developments in generative event extraction, which have been successful at the sentence level but have not yet been explored for document-level extraction. Our proposed solution includes an encoding scheme to capture entity-to-document level information and a decoding scheme that takes into account all relevant contexts. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that our generative-based solution can perform as well as state-of-theart methods that use specialized structures for document event extraction. This allows our method to serve as an easy-to-use and strong baseline for future research in this area. Finally, we propose a new unsupervised OOD detection model that separates, extracts, and learns the semantic role labelling guided fine-grained local feature representation from different sentence arguments and the full sentence using a margin-based contrastive loss. Then we demonstrate the benefit of applying a self-supervised approach to enhance such global-local feature learning by predicting the SRL extracted role. We conduct our experiments and achieve state-of-the-art performance on out-of-distribution benchmarks.Thesis (Ph.D.) -- University of Adelaide, School of Computer and Mathematical Sciences, 202

Predicting business failure using artificial intelligence system

This thesis was submitted for the award of Doctor of Philosophy and was awarded by Brunel University LondonPredicting business insolvency is considered one of the main supportive sources of information for decision making for financial institutions, investors, creditors, and other participants in the business market. Financial reporting systems provide relevant information that can be used to assess the financial position of firms. It is crucial to have classification and prediction models that can analyse this financial information and provide accurate assurance for users about business health. Recent studies have explored the use of machine learning tools as substitute for traditional statistical methods to develop classification models to classify firm insolvency according to financial statement information. However, these models have no ideal classifier, since each provides a certain percentage of wrong outputs, which is a crucial consideration; every percentage of wrong response can mean massive financial losses for stakeholders. Therefore, this study proposes new insolvency classification and perdition models based on machine learning modelling techniques to develop an improved classifier. Individual modelling techniques using statistical methods and machine learning were used to develop the classification model of business insolvency. The results showed that machine learning method outperformed statistical methods. Deep Learning (DPL) achieved the highest performance based on all performance measurements used in the study, and it was the best individual classifier, with average accuracy of 97.2% using all-years dataset. Ensemble- Boosted Decision Tree classifier ranked second, followed by Decision Tree classifier. Thus, it has been proven that DPL modelling approach is useful for business insolvency classification. A key contribution in enhancing individual classifier outputs is the use of traditional combining methods with two new aggregation methods in business insolvency (Fuzzy Logic and Consensus Approach). The Consensus Approach showed the best improvement in the results of all individual classifiers with average accuracy of 97.7%, and it is considered the best classification method not only in comparison with individual classifiers, but also with traditional combiners. This study pioneers the development of a time series business insolvency prediction model with Big Data for UK businesses. The aim of the model is to provide early prediction about a business health. Three prediction models were developed based on Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous Input models (NARX), Nonlinear Autoregressive Neural Network (NAR), and Deep Learning Time-series model (DPL-SA) and achieved average accuracy rates of 83.6%, 89.5%, and 91.35%, respectively. The results show relatively high performance in comparison with the best individual classifier (deep learning)

Monte Carlo Method with Heuristic Adjustment for Irregularly Shaped Food Product Volume Measurement

Volume measurement plays an important role in the production and processing of food products. Various methods have been proposed to measure the volume of food products with irregular shapes based on 3D reconstruction. However, 3D reconstruction comes with a high-priced computational cost. Furthermore, some of the volume measurement methods based on 3D reconstruction have a low accuracy. Another method for measuring volume of objects uses Monte Carlo method. Monte Carlo method performs volume measurements using random points. Monte Carlo method only requires information regarding whether random points fall inside or outside an object and does not require a 3D reconstruction. This paper proposes volume measurement using a computer vision system for irregularly shaped food products without 3D reconstruction based on Monte Carlo method with heuristic adjustment. Five images of food product were captured using five cameras and processed to produce binary images. Monte Carlo integration with heuristic adjustment was performed to measure the volume based on the information extracted from binary images. The experimental results show that the proposed method provided high accuracy and precision compared to the water displacement method. In addition, the proposed method is more accurate and faster than the space carving method

Avaliação de um algotrading baseado em deep learning para o mercado de capitais utilizando gerenciamento de risco

Financial time series predictions are a challenge due to their nonlinear and chaotic nature. In recent decades, many researchers and investors have studied methods to improve quantitative analysis. In the field of artificial intelligence, sophisticated machine learning techniques, such as deep learning showed better performance. In this work, an automated trading system, an algotrading, to predict future trends of stock index prices Ibovespa is showed and evaluated. Using an LSTM-based (Long Short-Term Memory) agent to learn temporal patterns in the data, the algorithm triggers automatic trades according to the historical data, technical analysis indicators, and risk management. Initially, five different strategies were developed using the LSTM algorithm as a basis, then the model that reported the best performance was selected. During the experimental tests, it was possible to prove that the use of trading strategy and risk management techniques helped to minimize losses and reduce operating costs, which have a direct influence on profitability. Subsequently, the model that obtained the best result, the LSTM-RMODV, underwent several improvements. Among them, the implementation of the Break-even and Trailing Stop techniques, and a series of optimizations for the trading strategy. Then, it was possible to obtain a set of parameters that brought better results to the ATS (Automated Trading System), giving rise to the new model called Algo-LSTM. In the last step, the evaluation of slippage alow to infer that in the long-term the impact of slippage under reasonable market conditions is not significant for the final result. Finally, the results demonstrated that the proposed method, AlgoLSTM, shows better performance when compared with other methods, including the buy-andhold technique. The proposed method also works in bear or bull market conditions, showing a rate over net income based on invested capital of 208.23% in 2019 and 112,81% in 2015. That is, despite the low accuracy, the algorithm is capable of generating consistent profits when all the transaction costs and the income tax over net revenue are considered.Agência 1Previsões de séries temporais financeiras são um desafio devido a sua não linearidade e natureza caótica. Nas últimas décadas, muitos pesquisadores e investidores estudaram métodos para melhorar as análises quantitativas. No campo da inteligência artificial, técnicas sofisticadas de aprendizado de máquina, como a aprendizagem profunda, apresentaram melhor performance. Nesta dissertação, um sistema de negociação automatizado, um algotrading, para prever as tendências futuras dos preços do índice de ações Ibovespa é apresentado e avaliado. Usando um agente baseado em LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) para aprender padrões temporais dos dados, o algoritmo dispara negociações automáticas de acordo com os dados históricos, indicadores de análise técnica e gerenciamento de risco. Inicialmente, foram desenvolvidas cinco estratégias distintas utilizando o algoritmo LSTM como base, em seguida, foi selecionado o modelo que reportou a melhor performance. Durante os testes experimentais, foi possível demonstrar que a utilização de Trading Strategy e gerenciamento de risco ajudaram a minimizar perdas e reduzir custos operacionais, que possuem influência direta na rentabilidade. Posteriormente, o modelo que obteve melhor resultado, o LSTM-RMODV, foi submetido à diversas melhorias. Entre elas, a implementação das técnicas de Break-even e Trailing Stop e uma série de otimizações do trading strategy. Com isto, foi possível obter um conjunto de parâmetros que trouxe melhores resultados ao ATS (Automated Trading System), dando origem ao novo modelo denominado Algo-LSTM. Em última etapa, a avaliação do slippage permitiu inferir que a longo prazo o impacto do slippage em condições razoáveis de mercado não é significante para o resultado final. Por fim, os resultados demonstraram que o método proposto, o Algo-LSTM, apresenta melhor desempenho quando comparado a outros métodos, incluindo a técnica buy-and-hold. O método proposto também funciona em condições de bear ou bull market, apresentando uma taxa sobre a rentabilidade líquida com base no capital investido de 208,23% em 2019 e 112,81% em 2015. Ou seja, apesar da baixa acurácia, o algoritmo é capaz de gerar retornos consistentes quando considerados todos os custos de transação e imposto de renda devido

AIRO 2016. 46th Annual Conference of the Italian Operational Research Society. Emerging Advances in Logistics Systems Trieste, September 6-9, 2016 - Abstracts Book

The AIRO 2016 book of abstract collects the contributions from the conference participants. The AIRO 2016 Conference is a special occasion for the Italian Operations Research community, as AIRO annual conferences turn 46th edition in 2016. To reflect this special occasion, the Programme and Organizing Committee, chaired by Walter Ukovich, prepared a high quality Scientific Programme including the first initiative of AIRO Young, the new AIRO poster section that aims to promote the work of students, PhD students, and Postdocs with an interest in Operations Research. The Scientific Programme of the Conference offers a broad spectrum of contributions covering the variety of OR topics and research areas with an emphasis on “Emerging Advances in Logistics Systems”. The event aims at stimulating integration of existing methods and systems, fostering communication amongst different research groups, and laying the foundations for OR integrated research projects in the next decade. Distinct thematic sections follow the AIRO 2016 days starting by initial presentation of the objectives and features of the Conference. In addition three invited internationally known speakers will present Plenary Lectures, by Gianni Di Pillo, Frédéric Semet e Stefan Nickel, gathering AIRO 2016 participants together to offer key presentations on the latest advances and developments in OR’s research

The Barcelona International Conference on Advances in Statistics (BAS 2012) : Abstracts of communications

Conferència Organitzada per l'Escola Politècnica Superior, Universitat de Vic en col·laboració amb Servei d'Estadística de la Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona i CosmoCaixa Barcelona. Celebrada del 18 al 22 de juny de 2012 a Barcelon

A Statistical Approach to the Alignment of fMRI Data

Multi-subject functional Magnetic Resonance Image studies are critical. The anatomical and functional structure varies across subjects, so the image alignment is necessary. We define a probabilistic model to describe functional alignment. Imposing a prior distribution, as the matrix Fisher Von Mises distribution, of the orthogonal transformation parameter, the anatomical information is embedded in the estimation of the parameters, i.e., penalizing the combination of spatially distant voxels. Real applications show an improvement in the classification and interpretability of the results compared to various functional alignment methods