From an agrarian society to a knowledge economy: Portugal, 1950-2010

This paper surveys the main features of Portuguese economic growth in the last half century, with a particular emphasis on the period after the return to democracy in 1974. It shows that significant structural change and capital deepening were the chief sources of growth in the Portuguese economy until the mid 1970s. From then onwards, human capital accumulation and productivity growth were the main reasons behind Portugal’s economic fortunes. Growth declined between these two phases, as in the rest of Europe. In Portugal, it slowed further after 1990. After surveying the main causes of the slowdown of the Portuguese economy in the last decade, Portugal’s main human capital indicators are compared to other European and OECD economies. While Portugal has made a remarkable transition from an agrarian society to an industry- and service-based economy, the country still has not been able to successfully move on to a knowledge-based economy. Such a transition, however, is instrumental to spur economic growth on and to improve productivity.Economic policies, Economic growth, Human Capital, Portugal

Migration signatures across the decades: Net migration by age in U.S. counties, 1950−2010

Background: Migration is the primary population redistribution process in the United States. Selective migration by age, race/ethnic group, and spatial location governs population integration, affects community and economic development, contributes to land use change, and structures service needs. Objective: Delineate historical net migration patterns by age, race/ethnic, and rural-urban dimensions for United States counties. Methods: Net migration rates by age for all US counties are aggregated from 1950−2010, summarized by rural-urban location and compared to explore differential race/ethnic patterns of age-specific net migration over time. Results: We identify distinct age-specific net migration ‘signatures’ that are consistent over time within county types, but different by rural-urban location and race/ethnic group. There is evidence of moderate population deconcentration and diminished racial segregation between 1990 and 2010. This includes a net outflow of Blacks from large urban core counties to suburban and smaller metropolitan counties, continued Hispanic deconcentration, and a slowdown in White counterurbanization. Conclusions: This paper contributes to a fuller understanding of the complex patterns of migration that have redistributed the U.S. population over the past six decades. It documents the variability in county age-specific net migration patterns both temporally and spatially, as well as the longitudinal consistency in migration signatures among county types and race/ethnic groups

Falling birth rates and world population decline: A quantitative discussion (1950-2040)

The UN data (1950-2010) and projections (both medium and low-fertility variants for 2015- 2040) show that fertility rates are already below replacement level in all continents except Africa. In this paper we develop a simple new approach for population projections based on a Improved Rate Equations (IRE) model. Population projections under the (1) Malthusian assumption, (2) an (IRE) model fitting and extrapolating from actual UN population data up to 2040, and (3) UN projections (low-fertility variant), are compared. The model fits quite well actual data and suggests a world population decline in the 21st Century. The economic, social and political consequences of this new and global circumstance would be far reachin

The Internationalisation of Tobacco Control, 1950-2010.

This article explores the internationalisation of tobacco control as a case study in the history of international health regulation. Contrary to the existing literature on the topic, it argues that the history of international anti-smoking efforts is longer and richer than the making of the World Health Organisation's Framework Convention on Tobacco Control in the early twenty-first century. It thereby echoes the point made by other scholars about the importance of history when making sense of contemporary global health. Specifically, the article shows how the internationalisation of tobacco control started in the 1950s through informal contacts between scientists working on cancer research and how these initial interactions were followed by a growing number of more formal initiatives, from the World Conferences on Tobacco or Health to the Bloomberg Initiative to Reduce Tobacco Use. Rather than arranging these efforts in a linear narrative of progress culminating with the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, we take anthropological claims about global health's uneven terrain seriously and portray a history of international tobacco control marked by ruptures and discontinuities. Specifically, we identify three successive periods, with each of them characterised by specific understandings of international action, tobacco control expertise, advocacy networks and funding strategies

Pareto superior dimension of rotating savings and credit associations (ROSCAs) in Ghana: Evidence from Asunafo North Municipality of Ghana

Abstract. This study investigates characteristics of Rotating savings and credit associations (ROSCAs) participants who join the association due to its Pareto superior allocation in Ghana. Some scholars like Dejene and Van den Brink have hypothesized that people join ROSCAs because of its Pareto superior allocation. The study employed primary data analysis in achieving its main objective.  Out of the 400 ROSCA participants sampled for the study from Asunafo North Municipality of Ghana, 71.75% joined the association because of its Pareto superior allocation. A Probit model was used to predict the probability of joining the association due to its superior allocation. The dependent variable took the value of one when respondents join the association due to its superior allocation and zero if otherwise. Married participants, participants with no or low level of education, participants who are unemployed and participants who save more of their income are more likely to join ROSCA due to its Pareto superior allocation. It was recommended that that ROSCA participants who have access (participants living in urban sectors) to formal financial institutions, participants who have accounts at formal financial institutions, participants who are rich and aged participants should be educated on how ROSCA constitutes its Pareto superior allocation.Keywords. Pareto Superiority, Rotating Savings and Credit Association.JEL. B26, D53, E44, G10, G34

Decadal changes of the Western Arabian sea ecosystem

Historical data from oceanographic expeditions and remotely sensed data on outgoing longwave radiation, temperature, wind speed and ocean color in the western Arabian Sea (1950–2010) were used to investigate decadal trends in the physical and biochemical properties of the upper 300 m. 72 % of the 29,043 vertical profiles retrieved originated from USA and UK expeditions. Increasing outgoing longwave radiation, surface air temperatures and sea surface temperature were identified on decadal timescales. These were well correlated with decreasing wind speeds associated with a reduced Siberian High atmospheric anomaly. Shoaling of the oxycline and nitracline was observed as well as acidification of the upper 300 m. These physical and chemical changes were accompanied by declining chlorophyll-a concentrations, vertical macrofaunal habitat compression, declining sardine landings and an increase of fish kill incidents along the Omani coast

Reconstruction of total marine fisheries catches for Germany in the North Sea (1950-2010)

We reconstructed marine fisheries catches for the Federal Republic of Germany within the North Sea (specifically ICES area IVb) from 1950-2010. ICES landings statistics are used as a reported baseline, and then adjusted using information from ICES stock assessment working group reports, national data, and expert knowledge to estimate unreported landings, recreational and subsistence catches and major discards. Brown shrimp (Crangon crangon) contribute the most to unreported landings and discards. Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus), Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and European plaice (Pleuronectes platessa) are also important fisheries for the period 1950-2010. The reconstructed total catch of 8.5 million t from 1950-2010 was approximately 63% higher than the baseline reported ICES landings of 5.2 million t. The reconstructed total catch of invertebrates is almost 4 million t, which is 2 times the ICES baseline catch which is just over 1.9 million t. The reconstructed catch for all finfish species is 4.6 million t and is 41% higher than the ICES baseline catch of 3.3 million t. These discrepancies are largely driven by discarded catches that are not accounted for in officially reported (ICES) data, which also form the globally reported data as presented by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Our results demonstrate the importance of comprehensively accounting for and disclosing fisheries data to the public (including discarded catches), and effectively monitoring Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated (IUU) catches