Falling birth rates and world population decline: A quantitative discussion (1950-2040)

Abstract

The UN data (1950-2010) and projections (both medium and low-fertility variants for 2015- 2040) show that fertility rates are already below replacement level in all continents except Africa. In this paper we develop a simple new approach for population projections based on a Improved Rate Equations (IRE) model. Population projections under the (1) Malthusian assumption, (2) an (IRE) model fitting and extrapolating from actual UN population data up to 2040, and (3) UN projections (low-fertility variant), are compared. The model fits quite well actual data and suggests a world population decline in the 21st Century. The economic, social and political consequences of this new and global circumstance would be far reachin