Reactive point processes: A new approach to predicting power failures in underground electrical systems

Reactive point processes (RPPs) are a new statistical model designed for predicting discrete events in time based on past history. RPPs were developed to handle an important problem within the domain of electrical grid reliability: short-term prediction of electrical grid failures ("manhole events"), including outages, fires, explosions and smoking manholes, which can cause threats to public safety and reliability of electrical service in cities. RPPs incorporate self-exciting, self-regulating and saturating components. The self-excitement occurs as a result of a past event, which causes a temporary rise in vulner ability to future events. The self-regulation occurs as a result of an external inspection which temporarily lowers vulnerability to future events. RPPs can saturate when too many events or inspections occur close together, which ensures that the probability of an event stays within a realistic range. Two of the operational challenges for power companies are (i) making continuous-time failure predictions, and (ii) cost/benefit analysis for decision making and proactive maintenance. RPPs are naturally suited for handling both of these challenges. We use the model to predict power-grid failures in Manhattan over a short-term horizon, and to provide a cost/benefit analysis of different proactive maintenance programs.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-AOAS789 in the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

An optimized fuzzy logic model for proactive maintenance

Fuzzy logic has been proposed in previous studies for machine diagnosis, to overcome different drawbacks of the traditional diagnostic approaches used. Among these approaches Failure Mode and Effect Critical Analysis method(FMECA) attempts to identify potential modes and treat failures before they occur based on subjective expert judgments. Although several versions of fuzzy logic are used to improve FMECA or to replace it, since it is an extremely cost-intensive approach in terms of failure modes because it evaluates each one of them separately, these propositions have not explicitly focused on the combinatorial complexity nor justified the choice of membership functions in Fuzzy logic modeling. Within this context, we develop an optimization-based approach referred to Integrated Truth Table and Fuzzy Logic Model (ITTFLM) that smartly generates fuzzy logic rules using Truth Tables. The ITTFLM was tested on fan data collected in real-time from a plant machine. In the experiment, three types of membership functions (Triangular, Trapezoidal, and Gaussian) were used. The ITTFLM can generate outputs in 5ms, the results demonstrate that this model based on the Trapezoidal membership functions identifies the failure states with high accuracy, and its capability of dealing with large numbers of rules and thus meets the real-time constraints that usually impact user experience.Comment: 16 pages in single column format, 11 figures, 12th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence, Soft Computing and Applications (AIAA 2022) December 22 ~ 24, 2022, Sydney, Australi

A Change Management Approach to Enhance Facility Maintenance Programs

A recent study assigned a grade of D+ on the nation\u27s public infrastructure. Because of this poor asset condition, many organizations tend to respond to maintenance in a reactive mode; however, relying on corrective maintenance leads to increased maintenance costs due to unplanned downtime, increased labor costs, and inefficient use of personnel. To address this situation, asset management (AM) principles should be employed to transition organizations towards a proactive maintenance program. Unfortunately, it has been shown that two-thirds of the organizations failed to implement general change efforts. Therefore, an organizational change management framework should be followed to implement a change that will successfully transition organizations from reactive to proactive maintenance. This research effort focuses on building the framework for a change message to help Air Force decision-makers implement new Information Technology (IT) that addresses key AM principles such as asset condition and remaining service life. A Delphi study was utilized to elicit expert field knowledge on facility maintenance and respective IT. Results from the study, combined with literature guidance, helped formulate a change message to implement BUILDER™ to enable a proactive maintenance paradigm

Decision support system for proactive maintenance of earthworks assets

Introduction A key component of management of water resources lies in asset monitoring of the structures that contain water, e.g., dams and embankments. Earthworks failures can lead to disastrous consequences, including flooding, and can be very expensive to remediate. This paper presents a solution to assess the physical integrity of vulnerable earth structures (dams, embankments and cuttings) - thereby facilitating the shift from more costly responsive remediation of earthwork failures to early intervention. While current methods (including sophisticated automated procedures, sensors and SCADA systems) do provide some information regarding the health of the assets, they have a number of limitations: (1) the cost of deploying and maintaining these solutions; (2) the level of intrusiveness; (3) the need for experienced engineers validating measurements by visual inspection; (4) remoteness of many sites; and (5) low temporal resolution with limited scope for predictive approaches to asset failure. Methodology Early intervention and prevention requires identification of the incremental development of internal conditions that ultimately trigger failure. The low cost of the devices allows deployments of higher density, increasing spatial resolution and monitoring in real-time. This, unlike conventional approaches, allows better representation the soil heterogeneity both spatially and temporarily. To this end, we will present observations from our trials of automated resistivity, movement and pressure measurements. The developed sensor nodes operate at low voltages, integrates a range of analogue and digital sensors, using a single interface for measuring resistivity, pressure, motion pore pressure, and temperature, can be developed in compact form (currently 32.5cm high with diameter 14.5cm for prototyping), are non-intrusive to their compact nature and continually log data with no human intervention. We will also discuss the design aspects of the casing so that our electronic sensor nodes are robust to harsh conditions, including extreme temperatures, moisture, high voltages, and wildlife, when buried. Data is stored on a data collection hub, and due to remoteness of these sites, remote communications has been enabled through near white-space frequencies to highlight potential risks to the appropriate stakeholders in real-time. Results and conclusions This paper presents a unique, customized and cost-effective platform for automated monitoring of earthworks through prototyping a novel hardware/firmware solution in consultation with various stakeholders: (i) integration of analogue and digital sensors for measuring pressure and motion, (ii) resistivity board that is controlled by main board, (iii) variable and on-demand sampling rates that can be dynamically controlled, (iv) a prototype mechanical waterproof design for housing main board, resistivity board and relevant sensors. We show initial results for ground movement, pressure and resistivity. Resistivity results are as expected based on the literature for clay-type soil. We also observe noticeable ground movement variation with artificially induced disturbance. We conclude that it is possible, through trials at Scottish Canals assets at Falkirk Wheel, to accurately monitor multiple earthworks parameters simultaneously, continuously, in real-time and without human intervention, as well as communicate data remotely in real-time to enable prediction of the onset of earthworks failures

A Simulation Based Approach for Determining Maintenance Strategies

Manufacturing organizations are continuously in the mode of identifying and implementing mechanisms to achieve a competitive edge. To this point manufacturers have recognized the critical role of equipment in the productivity of manufacturing operations. With the current trend of manufacturers attempting to lean out their production processes, primary and auxiliary equipment have become even more important to manufacturers as measured by productivity, quality, delivery, and cost metrics. As a result of the focus on lean manufacturing, maintenance management has found a new vigor and purpose to increase equipment capacity and capability. However, the most proactive maintenance strategy is not always the most effective utilization of resources. It is typical for manufacturers to integrate both reactive and proactive maintenance to define a cost effective maintenance strategy. A simulation-based approach is presented that allows an end user to develop such a maintenance strategy

Development of a Condition Monitoring System for an Articulated Wave Energy Converter

ESREL 2016: European Safety and Reliability Conference 2016, Glasgow, UK, 25-29 September, 2016This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the publisher.Condition monitoring systems (CMS) in renewable energy devices allow for the detection of oncoming faults, providing data to undertake pre-emptive maintenance. By defining a systems functional re-quirements and identifying of critical failure modes, proactive maintenance strategies to be produced. The lack of operational data in the marine energy industry, and lack of consensus in operating principles between devic-es, means that a non-standardised CMS package is available for wave energy converters (WECs). In this study a Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is undertaken in order to identify the critical failure modes of an articulated WEC, measurement priorities are identified and a set of monitoring solutions provided. Installing a CMS provides the framework for collecting quality component reliability data, however further development is required for building a proactive maintenance strategy and for continuous reliability improvement

Perencanaan Penjadwalan Preventive dan Proactive Maintenance Pada Dies Molding Capacitor

Budget instability and increasing competition in the industrial world require companies to further improve the efficiency of their operations. A large level of downtime every month is very often found. Because the more downtime that occurs, the more detrimental to the productivity of a company. Disturbances that occur during the production process or routine activities that occur due to damage to machinery or other work facilities, must be prevented as early as possible. What is more important is that future disruptions do not occur again. Enhance the role of technicians and instructors as the maintenance team that first discusses the problem of engine failure that is used for practice to create integrated productive maintenance systems. Scheduled and planned maintenance can prevent damage to equipment and other work facilities. This research can eliminate simple examples of unnecessary damage. Approved preventive maintenance will produce an inventory of all components used that are delivered with scheduled maintenance. To carry out maintenance required work that is planned to be done in accordance with what will be done. The machine subject that is translated is the Printing Machine, where the machine's focus component to be allocated is a Dying Matter / Print Matter. From data processing and discussion, the most important parts are Cavity, Ejector Pin, Thermocouple, and Screw. The damage category found the recommended component replacement.Ketidakstabilan perekonomian dan semakin tajamnya persaingan di dunia industri mengharuskan suatu perusahaan untuk lebih meningkatkan efisiensi kegiatan operasinya. Besarnya tingkat downtime setiap bulannya sangat sering ditemukan. Karena dengan semakin banyak downtime yang terjadi maka akan semakin merugikan produktifitas sebuah perusahaan. Gangguan yang terjadi selama proses produksi atau aktivitas rutin lain akibat dari terjadinya kerusakan pada mesin atau fasilitas kerja lainnya, harus dicegah sedini mungkin. Yang lebih penting adalah agar gangguan yang sama tidak terulang lagi di masa mendatang. Peningkatan peran teknisi dan instruktur sebagai tim perawatan yang pertama sekali mengetahui gejala gangguan kerusakan mesin yang digunakan untuk praktek demi terciptanya sistem pemeliharaan produktif terpadu. Schedule dan perawatan yang terencana dapat mencegah timbulnya gangguan kerusakan peralatan mesin dan fasilitas kerja lainnya. Penelitian ini dapat menghilangkan contoh kerusakan yang sederhana, yang tidak perlu terjadi. Preventive maintenance yang direncanakan akan menghasilkan inventaris semua komponen alat yang digunakan diproduksi dengan terjadwal setiap perawatannya. Untuk pelaksanaan perawatan terdapat job-job kerja yang terencana yang akan dilakukan sesuai dengan alat yang akan dirawat. Subjek mesin yang diteliti adalah Mesin Molding, dimana fokus komponen mesin yang akan diteliti adalah Dies Mold/Cetakan Molding. Dari pengolahan data dan pembahasan yang dilakukan diperoleh part yang paling kritis adalah Cavity, Pin Ejector, Thermocouple, dan Screw. Kategori temuan kerusakan direkomendasikan pergantian komponen apabila tingkat kerusakan melebihi batas toleransi

Proactive Maintenance Strategy Based on Resilience Empowerment for Complex Buildings

Resilience of the built environment, particularly in complex buildings, is strictly related to the effectiveness of systems and sub-systems that provide the expected features to manage risk scenarios in routine and non-routine conditions. In this perspective, maintenance is therefore a key factor to assure building resilience by keeping systems and equipment in the required operational state. Risk management can be empowered if system resilience and disruptive events are monitored in real-time, and, to this aim, proactive maintenance can nowadays monitor systems resilience with innovative digital tools

Proactive maintenance as success factor for use-oriented product-service systems

In use-oriented Product-Service Systems (PSS) the ownership of the product remains with the provider who is responsible for maintenance, repair and overhaul [1]. Thus the risk of machine unavailability is transferred from the customer towards the PSS provider. In order to minimize this risk the provider needs to reduce unscheduled downtimes to enhance machine availability. Hence proactive maintenance is an important success factor for providing this PSS type [2]. In practice, manufacturing equipment providers struggle to derive the required information for providing proactive maintenance from the existing data and thus potentials remain unused. One of the problems for many companies in this context is the missing knowhow for managing and analyzing this high amount of data. This issue is discussed in research and practice under the topic “Big Data” [3]. This paper focusses on discussing different approaches for data gathering, analysis and interpretation as well as associated challenges. Drivers and hindering factors are introduced and solution approaches are provided. These aspects are analyzed in a case study in collaboration with a material handling manufacturer which was conducted in one of the transfer projects of the Collaborative Research Center Transregio 29 which addressed the dynamic interdependencies of products and services in the production area

AUTOJEN HUOLTOSEURANTA VP-KULJETUS OY:LLE

Opinnäytetyössä on ollut tarkoituksena valjastaa VP-Kuljetus Oy:n hankkiman AC-Panther-tietojärjestelmän integroitu huoltojenseurantaominaisuus käyttöön. Lisäksi työssä selvitettiin ennakoivan huollon merkitystä kuljetusyrityksen kuluihin ja laatutekijöihin. Työ toteutettiin selvittämällä AC-Panther-tietojärjestelmän ominaisuuksia, tarkastelemalla kustannusvaikutuksia ja haastattelemalla yrityksen johtoa, korjaamopäällikköä ja henkilökuntaa. Työtä varten otettiin selvää sekä huoltojen puutteen, että ennakoivan huollon merkityksestä kuljetusyrityksessä. Tarkasteltiin myös AC-Panther-tietojärjestelmää, sen ominaisuuksista kauttaaltaan, ja miten sen eri ominaisuuksia on otettu käyttöön implementoinnin jälkeen yrityksessä. Haastattelut toteutettiin pääosin puhelinhaastatteluina yritysjohdon kiireellisyyden vuoksi. Työn tuloksena saatiin kuva ylimääräisten kaluston rikkoutumisten ja ennakoivan huollon suhteesta kuljetusyrityksessä ja laitettiin alulle huoltoseurantajärjestelmän käyttöönotto yrityksessä. Työssä selvitettiin eri osa-alueet, jotka yrityksessä tarvitsee ottaa huomioon projektin läpiviemiseksi ja myös kriittisiä pisteitä, sekä ongelmakohtia ja miten ne mahdollisesti voitaisiin ratkaista tulevaisuudessa.The purpose of this thesis was to develop a well-functioning maintenance monitoring system for VP-Kuljetus Oy with AC-Panther-information system. Other mission was to examine the consequences of proactive maintenance to carrier’s costs and quality standards. The data were gathered by examining the features of the information system, analyzing the costs and interviewing the staff of the company, including management and the workshop manager. For this study, consequences of both the lack of maintenance and proactive maintenance were researched. The AC-Panther-information system and its features were studied, also how the company has implemented it to be part of its operations. Interviews were conducted mainly by phone interviews, because of the tight schedules of the company’s management. As a result of the study, an overview was acquired of excessive breaks of vehicles and proactive maintenance in carrier’s business. Maintenance monitoring project was set in place. The subjects that were clarified in the research must be taken into account in on the project’s life cycle. Also as a result, the critical points, problems and also their possible solutions in future were studied