Sensitivity of calving glaciers to ice-ocean interactions under climate change: New insights from a 3D full-Stokes model

Iceberg calving accounts for between 30% and 60% of net mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, which has intensified and is now the single largest contributor to global sea level rise in the cryosphere. Changes to calving rates and the dynamics of calving glaciers represent a significant uncertainty in projections of future sea level rise. A growing body of observational evidence suggests that calving glaciers respond rapidly to regional environmental change, but predictive capacity is limited by the lack of suitable models capable of simulating calving mechanisms realistically. Here, we use a 3-D full-Stokes calving model to investigate the environmental sensitivity of Store Glacier, a large outlet glacier inWest Greenland.We focus on two environmental processes: undercutting by submarine melting and buttressing by ice mélange, and our results indicate that Store Glacier is likely to be able to withstand moderate warming perturbations in which the former is increased by 50% and the latter reduced by 50 %. However, severe perturbation with a doubling of submarine melt rates or a complete loss of ice mélange destabilises the calving front in our model runs. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that stress and fracture patterns at Store’s terminus are complex and varied, primarily due to the influence of basal topography. Calving style and environmental sensitivity vary greatly, with propagation of surface crevasses significantly influencing iceberg production in the northern side, whereas basal crevasses dominate in the south. Any future retreat is likely to be initiated in the southern side by a combination of increased submarine melt rates in summer and reduced mélange strength in winter. The lateral variability, as well as the importance of rotational and bending forces at the terminus, underlines the importance of using the 3-D full-Stokes stress solution when modelling Greenland’s calving glaciers.Article is output from NERC PhD studentship (Todd) and NERC grant (Christoffersen

Simulating the roles of crevasse routing of surface water and basal friction on the surge evolution of Basin 3, Austfonna ice cap

The marine-terminating outlet in Basin 3, Austfonna ice cap, has been accelerating since the mid-1990s. Stepwise multi-annual acceleration associated with seasonal summer speed-up events was observed before the outlet entered the basin-wide surge in autumn 2012. We used multiple numerical models to explore hydrologic activation mechanisms for the surge behaviour. A continuum ice dynamic model was used to invert basal friction coefficient distributions using the control method and observed surface velocity data between April 2012 and July 2014. This has provided input to a discrete element model capable of simulating individual crevasses, with the aim of finding locations where meltwater entered the glacier during the summer and reached the bed. The possible flow paths of surface meltwater reaching the glacier bed as well as those of meltwater produced at the bed were calculated according to the gradient of the hydraulic potential. The inverted friction coefficients show the "unplugging" of the stagnant ice front and expansion of low-friction regions before the surge reached its peak velocity in January 2013. Crevasse distribution reflects the basal friction pattern to a high degree. The meltwater reaches the bed through the crevasses located above the margins of the subglacial valley and the basal melt that is generated mainly by frictional heating flows either to the fast-flowing units or potentially accumulates in an overdeepened region. Based on these results, the mechanisms facilitated by basal meltwater production, crevasse opening and the routing of meltwater to the bed are discussed for the surge in Basin 3.Peer reviewe

Simulations of the Greenland ice sheet 100 years into the future with the full Stokes model Elmer/Ice

第2回極域科学シンポジウム/第34回気水圏シンポジウム 11月15日（火） 統計数理研究所 セミナー室

Tidewater glacier response to individual calving events

Tidewater glaciers have been observed to experience instantaneous, stepwise increases in velocity during iceberg-calving events due to a loss of resistive stresses. These changes in stress can potentially impact tidewater glacier stability by promoting additional calving and affecting the viscous delivery of ice to the terminus. Using flow models and perturbation theory, we demonstrate that calving events and subsequent terminus readvance produce quasi-periodic, sawtooth oscillations in stress that originate at the terminus and propagate upstream. The stress perturbations travel at speeds much greater than the glacier velocities and, for laterally resisted glaciers, rapidly decay within a few ice thickness of the terminus. Consequently, because terminus fluctuations due to individual calving events tend to be much higher frequency than climate variations, individual calving events have little direct impact on the viscous delivery of ice to the terminus. This suggests that the primary mechanism by which calving events can trigger instability is by causing fluctuations in stress that weaken the ice and lead to additional calving and sustained terminus retreat. Our results further demonstrate a stronger response to calving events in simulations that include the full stress tensor, highlighting the importance of accounting for higher order stresses when developing calving parameterizations.© The Author(s), 2022. Published by Cambridge University Press. This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.Ye

Tides modulate crevasse opening prior to a major calving event at Bowdoin Glacier, Northwest Greenland

This research is part of the Sun2ice project (ETH Grant ETH-12 16-2), supported by the Dr. Alfred and Flora Spälti and the ETH Zurich Foundation. Field work was funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation, grant 200021-153179/1, and the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology through the Arctic Challenge for Sustainability (ArCS) project. Implementation of the remeshing routine has been performed under the Project HPC-EUROPA3 (INFRAIA-2016-1-730897), with the support of the EC Research Innovation Action under the H2020 Programme.Retreat of calving glaciers worldwide has contributed substantially to sea-level rise in recent decades. Mass loss by calving contributes significantly to the uncertainty of sea-level rise projections. At Bowdoin Glacier, Northwest Greenland, most calving occurs by a few large events resulting from kilometre-scale fractures forming parallel to the calving front. High-resolution terrestrial radar interferometry data of such an event reveal that crevasse opening is fastest at low tide and accelerates during the final 36 h before calving. Using the ice flow model Elmer/Ice, we identify the crevasse water level as a key driver of modelled opening rates. Sea water-level variations in the range of local tidal amplitude (1 m) can reproduce observed opening rate fluctuations, provided crevasse water level is at least 4 m above the low-tide sea level. The accelerated opening rates within the final 36 h before calving can be modelled by additional meltwater input into the crevasse, enhanced ice cliff undercutting by submarine melt, ice damage increase due to tidal cyclic fatigue, crevasse deepening or a combination of these processes. Our results highlight the influence of surface meltwater and tides on crevasse opening leading to major calving events at grounded tidewater glaciers such as Bowdoin.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Melt-under-cutting and buoyancy-driven calving from tidewater glaciers: new insights from discrete element and continuum model simulations

This work was funded by the ConocoPhillips Northern Area Program (CRIOS: Calving Rates and Impact on Sea Level) and the Nordic Research Council (SVALI: Stability and Variation of Arctic Land Ice and eSTICC: eScience Tools for Investigating Climate Change in northern high latitudes).The simple calving laws currently used in ice sheet models do not adequately reflect the complexity and diversity of calving processes. To be effective, calving laws must be grounded in a sound understanding of how calving actually works. Here, we develop a new strategy for formulating calving laws, using a) the Helsinki Discrete Element Model (HiDEM) to explicitly model fracture and calving processes, and b) the continuum model Elmer/Ice to identify critical stress states associated with HiDEM calving events. A range of observed calving processes emerges spontaneously from HiDEM in response to variations in ice-front buoyancy and the size of subaqueous undercuts. Calving driven by buoyancy and melt undercutting is under-predicted by existing calving laws, but we show that the location and magnitude of HiDEM calving events can be predicted in Elmer/Ice from characteristic stress patterns. Our results open the way to developing calving laws that properly reflect the diversity of calving processes, and provide a framework for a unified theory of the calving process continuum.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Importance of basal boundary conditions in transient simulations : case study of a surging marine-terminating glacier on Austfonna, Svalbard

We assess the importance of basal boundary conditions for transient simulations of Basin 3, Austfonna ice cap between January 1995 and December 2011 and for the surge starting in 2012 by carrying out simulations with the full-Stokes model Elmer/Ice and the vertically-integrated model BISICLES. Time-varying surface mass-balance data from the regional climate model HIRHAM5 are downscaled according to elevation. Basal friction coefficient is varied through time by interpolating between two data-constrained inversions of surface velocity fields, from 1995 and 2011. Evolution of the basal boundary condition appears to be much more important for mass discharge and the dynamic response of the fast flowing unit in Basin 3 than either model choice or the downscaling method for the surface mass balance. In addition, temporally linear extrapolation of the evolution of basal friction coefficient beyond the 2011 distribution could not reproduce the expansion of the acceleration observed in southern Basin 3 between January 2012 and June 2013. This implies that changes in basal friction patterns, and in turn basal processes that are not currently represented in either model, are among the most important factors for the 2012 acceleration.Peer reviewe

Basal dynamics of Kronebreen, a fast-flowing tidewater glacier in Svalbard: non-local spatio-temporal response to water input

We evaluate the variability in basal friction for Kronebreen, Svalbard, a fast-flowing tidewater glacier. We invert 3 years (2013–15) of surface velocities at high temporal resolution (generally 11 days), to estimate the changing basal properties of the glacier. Our results suggest that sliding behaviour of Kronebreen within a year is primarily influenced by changes in water input patterns during the meltwater season and basal friction is highly variable from a year to another. At present, models usually employ parameterisations to encompass the complex physics of glacier sliding by mathematically simulate their net effect. For such ice masses with strong seasonal variations of surface melt, the spatio-temporal patterns of basal friction imply that it is neither possible nor appropriate to use a parameterisation for bed friction that is fixed in space and/or time, at least in a timescale of a few years. Basal sliding may not only be governed by local processes such as basal topography or summer melt, but also be mediated by factors that vary over a larger distance and over a longer time period such as subglacial hydrology organisation, ice-thickness changes or calving front geometry