Overall Probability of Winning Heuristic in Decisions Under Uncertainty and Ambiguity

We demonstrate how subtle changes in presentation formats can lead to systematic and adaptive changes in decision-making strategies and the use of overall probability of winning heuristic for decisions under uncertainty. These findings also extend to decisions under ambiguity, where probabilities are unknown and need to be learned from experience

Creative destruction in science

Drawing on the concept of a gale of creative destruction in a capitalistic economy, we argue that initiatives to assess the robustness of findings in the organizational literature should aim to simultaneously test competing ideas operating in the same theoretical space. In other words, replication efforts should seek not just to support or question the original findings, but also to replace them with revised, stronger theories with greater explanatory power. Achieving this will typically require adding new measures, conditions, and subject populations to research designs, in order to carry out conceptual tests of multiple theories in addition to directly replicating the original findings. To illustrate the value of the creative destruction approach for theory pruning in organizational scholarship, we describe recent replication initiatives re-examining culture and work morality, working parents\u2019 reasoning about day care options, and gender discrimination in hiring decisions. Significance statement It is becoming increasingly clear that many, if not most, published research findings across scientific fields are not readily replicable when the same method is repeated. Although extremely valuable, failed replications risk leaving a theoretical void\u2014 reducing confidence the original theoretical prediction is true, but not replacing it with positive evidence in favor of an alternative theory. We introduce the creative destruction approach to replication, which combines theory pruning methods from the field of management with emerging best practices from the open science movement, with the aim of making replications as generative as possible. In effect, we advocate for a Replication 2.0 movement in which the goal shifts from checking on the reliability of past findings to actively engaging in competitive theory testing and theory building. Scientific transparency statement The materials, code, and data for this article are posted publicly on the Open Science Framework, with links provided in the article

Examining the generalizability of research findings from archival data

This initiative examined systematically the extent to which a large set of archival research findings generalizes across contexts. We repeated the key analyses for 29 original strategic management effects in the same context (direct reproduction) as well as in 52 novel time periods and geographies; 45% of the reproductions returned results matching the original reports together with 55% of tests in different spans of years and 40% of tests in novel geographies. Some original findings were associated with multiple new tests. Reproducibility was the best predictor of generalizability—for the findings that proved directly reproducible, 84% emerged in other available time periods and 57% emerged in other geographies. Overall, only limited empirical evidence emerged for context sensitivity. In a forecasting survey, independent scientists were able to anticipate which effects would find support in tests in new samples

Persistence of the Anchoring Effect

The long-term effect of anchoring on valuation

Insights into the Accuracy of Social Scientists’ Forecasts of Societal Change

How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists\u27 forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior dat

Robustness of Preference Anchoring

This project aims to understand the robustness of anchoring effects on preferential judgments (willingness-to-pay; WTP). Three incentive compatible studies were conducted to test the effects of various experimental procedures on anchoring effects on WTP. Additional cross study analysis, meta analysis, and a p-curve analysis were conducted to examine effect sizes across studies and a potential publication bias

Do humans have two systems to be creative?: Asymmetric underlying mechanisms of relation-based and property-based conceptual combination

We investigated the time course of property- and relation-based conceptual combination by showing asymmetric activa-tions of intrinsic and extrinsic semantic features in the two different combination types. Participants made lexical decisionson modifier or head associates at two different time points followed by sensicality judgments on noun-noun compoundsconstructed to facilitate either property- or relation-based interpretations. For property-based compounds, lexical deci-sions on modifier associates (intrinsic features) were facilitated, whereas those on head associates were inhibited. Forrelation-based compounds, however, lexical decisions on head associates (extrinsic features) and modifier associates wereequally facilitated. These asymmetric activations of intrinsic and extrinsic semantic features appeared only when the com-binatorial processes were completed. Our findings suggest that combinatorial processes can be considered as facilitationand inhibition of specific semantic features to form new concepts

Numeric Competencies and Anchoring Biases

Two experiments were conducted to examine the role of threefacets of numeracy (objective (ONS), subjective (SNS), andsymbolic number mapping (SMap)) in three anchoring tasks(experimenter-given, self-generate, and valuation). We foundthat the three numeric competencies were associated withdifferent anchoring tasks. SMap was associated with none ofthe three anchor tasks, while ONS consistently predictedstronger susceptibility to self-generated anchoring. The roleof ONS and SNS in experimenter-given and valuation taskswere inconsistent. In Experiment 1, where the direction ofadjustment from an anchor is specified, ONS and SNS werepositively associated with anchor susceptibility in a valuationtask, while they were not in an experimenter-given anchortask. On the other hand, in Experiment 2 where the directionof adjustment from an anchor is uncertain, ONS and SNSwere positively associated with anchor susceptibility in anexperimenter-given anchor task, while they were not in avaluation task