Comparing multiple competing interventions in the absence of randomized trials using clinical risk-benefit analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To demonstrate the use of risk-benefit analysis for comparing multiple competing interventions in the absence of randomized trials, we applied this approach to the evaluation of five anticoagulants to prevent thrombosis in patients undergoing orthopedic surgery.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using a cost-effectiveness approach from a clinical perspective (i.e. risk benefit analysis) we compared thromboprophylaxis with warfarin, low molecular weight heparin, unfractionated heparin, fondaparinux or ximelagatran in patients undergoing major orthopedic surgery, with sub-analyses according to surgery type. Proportions and variances of events defining risk (major bleeding) and benefit (thrombosis averted) were obtained through a meta-analysis and used to define beta distributions. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted and used to calculate incremental risks, benefits, and risk-benefit ratios. Finally, net clinical benefit was calculated for all replications across a range of risk-benefit acceptability thresholds, with a reference range obtained by estimating the case fatality rate - ratio of thrombosis to bleeding.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The analysis showed that compared to placebo ximelagatran was superior to other options but final results were influenced by type of surgery, since ximelagatran was superior in total knee replacement but not in total hip replacement.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Using simulation and economic techniques we demonstrate a method that allows comparing multiple competing interventions in the absence of randomized trials with multiple arms by determining the option with the best risk-benefit profile. It can be helpful in clinical decision making since it incorporates risk, benefit, and personal risk acceptance.</p

Detection of Polarization in the Cosmic Microwave Background using DASI

We report the detection of polarized anisotropy in the Cosmic Microwave Background radiation with the Degree Angular Scale Interferometer (DASI), located at the Amundsen-Scott South Pole research station. Observations in all four Stokes parameters were obtained within two 3.4 FWHM fields separated by one hour in Right Ascension. The fields were selected from the subset of fields observed with DASI in 2000 in which no point sources were detected and are located in regions of low Galactic synchrotron and dust emission. The temperature angular power spectrum is consistent with previous measurements and its measured frequency spectral index is -0.01 (-0.16 -- 0.14 at 68% confidence), where 0 corresponds to a 2.73 K Planck spectrum. The power spectrum of the detected polarization is consistent with theoretical predictions based on the interpretation of CMB anisotropy as arising from primordial scalar adiabatic fluctuations. Specifically, E-mode polarization is detected at high confidence (4.9 sigma). Assuming a shape for the power spectrum consistent with previous temperature measurements, the level found for the E-mode polarization is 0.80 (0.56 -- 1.10), where the predicted level given previous temperature data is 0.9 -- 1.1. At 95% confidence, an upper limit of 0.59 is set to the level of B-mode polarization with the same shape and normalization as the E-mode spectrum. The TE correlation of the temperature and E-mode polarization is detected at 95% confidence, and also found to be consistent with predictions. These results provide strong validation of the underlying theoretical framework for the origin of CMB anisotropy and lend confidence to the values of the cosmological parameters that have been derived from CMB measurements.Comment: 20 pages, 6 figure

The skull of Epidolops ameghinoi from the early Eocene Itaboraí fauna, southeastern Brazil, and the affinities of the extinct marsupialiform order Polydolopimorphia

The skull of the polydolopimorphian marsupialiform Epidolops ameghinoi is described in detail for the first time, based on a single well-preserved cranium and associated left and right dentaries plus additional craniodental fragments, all from the early Eocene (53-50 million year old) Itaboraí fauna in southeastern Brazil. Notable craniodental features of E. ameghinoi include absence of a masseteric process, very small maxillopalatine fenestrae, a prominent pterygoid fossa enclosed laterally by a prominent ectopterygoid crest, an absent or tiny transverse canal foramen, a simple, planar glenoid fossa, and a postglenoid foramen that is immediately posterior to the postglenoid process. Most strikingly, the floor of the hypotympanic sinus was apparently unossified, a feature found in several stem marsupials but absent in all known crown marsupials. "Type II" marsupialiform petrosals previously described from Itaboraí plausibly belong to E. ameghinoi; in published phylogenetic analyses, these petrosals fell outside (crown-clade) Marsupialia. "IMG VII" tarsals previously referred to E. ameghinoi do not share obvious synapomorphies with any crown marsupial clade, nor do they resemble those of the only other putative polydolopimorphians represented by tarsal remains, namely the argyrolagids. Most studies have placed Polydolopimorphia within Marsupialia, related to either Paucituberculata, or to Microbiotheria and Diprotodontia. However, diprotodonty almost certainly evolved independently in polydolopimorphians, paucituberculatans and diprotodontians, and Epidolops does not share obvious synapomorphies with any marsupial order. Epidolops is dentally specialized, but several morphological features appear to be more plesiomorphic than any crown marsupial. It seems likely Epidolops that falls outside Marsupialia, as do morphologically similar forms such as Bonapartherium and polydolopids. Argyrolagids differ markedly in their known morphology from Epidolops but share some potential apomorphies with paucituberculatans. It is proposed that Polydolopimorphia as currently recognised is polyphyletic, and that argyrolagids (and possibly other taxa currently included in Argyrolagoidea, such as groeberiids and patagoniids) are members of Paucituberculata. This hypothesis is supported by Bayesian non-clock phylogenetic analyses of a total evidence matrix comprising DNA sequence data from five nuclear protein-coding genes, indels, retroposon insertions and morphological characters: Epidolops falls outside Marsupialia, whereas argyrolagids form a clade with the paucituberculatans Caenolestes and Palaeothentes, regardless of whether the Type II petrosals and IMG VII tarsals are used to score characters for Epidolops or not. There is no clear evidence for the presence of crown marsupials at Itaboraí, and it is possible that the origin and early evolution of Marsupialia was restricted to the "Austral Kingdom" (southern South America, Antarctica, and Australia)

Increasing vegetable intakes: rationale and systematic review of published interventions

Purpose While the health benefits of a high fruit and vegetable consumption are well known and considerable work has attempted to improve intakes, increasing evidence also recognises a distinction between fruit and vegetables, both in their impacts on health and in consumption patterns. Increasing work suggests health benefits from a high consumption specifically of vegetables, yet intakes remain low, and barriers to increasing intakes are prevalent making intervention difficult. A systematic review was undertaken to identify from the published literature all studies reporting an intervention to increase intakes of vegetables as a distinct food group. Methods Databases—PubMed, PsychInfo and Medline—were searched over all years of records until April 2015 using pre-specified terms. Results Our searches identified 77 studies, detailing 140 interventions, of which 133 (81 %) interventions were conducted in children. Interventions aimed to use or change hedonic factors, such as taste, liking and familiarity (n = 72), use or change environmental factors (n = 39), use or change cognitive factors (n = 19), or a combination of strategies (n = 10). Increased vegetable acceptance, selection and/or consumption were reported to some degree in 116 (83 %) interventions, but the majority of effects seem small and inconsistent. Conclusions Greater percent success is currently found from environmental, educational and multi-component interventions, but publication bias is likely, and long-term effects and cost-effectiveness are rarely considered. A focus on long-term benefits and sustained behaviour change is required. Certain population groups are also noticeably absent from the current list of tried interventions

A method for assessing robustness of the results of a star-shaped network meta-analysis under the unidentifiable consistency assumption

Background In a star-shaped network, pairwise comparisons link treatments with a reference treatment (often placebo or standard care), but not with each other. Thus, comparisons between non-reference treatments rely on indirect evidence, and are based on the unidentifiable consistency assumption, limiting the reliability of the results. We suggest a method of performing a sensitivity analysis through data imputation to assess the robustness of results with an unknown degree of inconsistency. Methods The method involves imputation of data for randomized controlled trials comparing non-reference treatments, to produce a complete network. The imputed data simulate a situation that would allow mixed treatment comparison, with a statistically acceptable extent of inconsistency. By comparing the agreement between the results obtained from the original star-shaped network meta-analysis and the results after incorporating the imputed data, the robustness of the results of the original star-shaped network meta-analysis can be quantified and assessed. To illustrate this method, we applied it to two real datasets and some simulated datasets. Results Applying the method to the star-shaped network formed by discarding all comparisons between non-reference treatments from a real complete network, 33% of the results from the analysis incorporating imputed data under acceptable inconsistency indicated that the treatment ranking would be different from the ranking obtained from the star-shaped network. Through a simulation study, we demonstrated the sensitivity of the results after data imputation for a star-shaped network with different levels of within- and between-study variability. An extended usability of the method was also demonstrated by another example where some head-to-head comparisons were incorporated. Conclusions Our method will serve as a practical technique to assess the reliability of results from a star-shaped network meta-analysis under the unverifiable consistency assumption.This research was supported by a grant of the Korea Health Technology R&D Project through the Korea Health Industry Development Institute, funded by the Ministry of Health & Welfare, Republic of Korea (grant number: HI19C1178). The funder had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

Azimuthal anisotropy in S+Au reactions at 200 A GeV

Azimuthal correlations of photons produced at mid-rapidity in 200 A GeV S + Au collisions have been studied using a preshower photon multiplicity detector in the WA93 experiment. The Fourier expansion method has been employed to estimate the event plane via the anisotropy of the event as a function of centrality. The event plane correlation technique has been used to determine the true event anisotropy, beyond the anisotropy which arises due to finite multiplicity. The VENUS event generator with rescattering and proper simulation of the detector response can explain only a portion of the observed anisotropy. The residual anisotropy is found to be of the order of 5% for semi-central collisions. This suggests that directed collective flow of the produced particles is present at SPS energies. (C) 1997 Published by Elsevier Science B.V

Contribution of genetic background, traditional risk factors, and HIV-related factors to coronary artery disease events in HIV-positive persons.

BACKGROUND: Persons infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) have increased rates of coronary artery disease (CAD). The relative contribution of genetic background, HIV-related factors, antiretroviral medications, and traditional risk factors to CAD has not been fully evaluated in the setting of HIV infection. METHODS: In the general population, 23 common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were shown to be associated with CAD through genome-wide association analysis. Using the Metabochip, we genotyped 1875 HIV-positive, white individuals enrolled in 24 HIV observational studies, including 571 participants with a first CAD event during the 9-year study period and 1304 controls matched on sex and cohort. RESULTS: A genetic risk score built from 23 CAD-associated SNPs contributed significantly to CAD (P = 2.9 × 10(-4)). In the final multivariable model, participants with an unfavorable genetic background (top genetic score quartile) had a CAD odds ratio (OR) of 1.47 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05-2.04). This effect was similar to hypertension (OR = 1.36; 95% CI, 1.06-1.73), hypercholesterolemia (OR = 1.51; 95% CI, 1.16-1.96), diabetes (OR = 1.66; 95% CI, 1.10-2.49), ≥ 1 year lopinavir exposure (OR = 1.36; 95% CI, 1.06-1.73), and current abacavir treatment (OR = 1.56; 95% CI, 1.17-2.07). The effect of the genetic risk score was additive to the effect of nongenetic CAD risk factors, and did not change after adjustment for family history of CAD. CONCLUSIONS: In the setting of HIV infection, the effect of an unfavorable genetic background was similar to traditional CAD risk factors and certain adverse antiretroviral exposures. Genetic testing may provide prognostic information complementary to family history of CAD