Thermal perturbation of the Sun

Thermal perturbations of the solar convection zone can be modeled (to the first order) by perturbing the mixing length parameter alpha (equal to the ratio of the mixing length to the pressure scale height) used in the standard mixing length theory of convection. Results of such an analysis are presented and discussed in relation to recent work by others

Can the 12-item General Health Questionnaire be used to measure positive mental health?

Background. Well-being is an important determinant of health and social outcomes. Measures of positive mental health states are needed for population-based research. The 12-item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) has been widely used in many settings and languages, and includes positively and negatively worded items. Our aim was to test the hypothesis that the GHQ-12 assesses both positive and negative mental health and that these domains are independent of one another. Method. Exploratory (EFA) and confirmatory (CFA) factor analyses were conducted using data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) and the Health Survey for England (HSE). Regression models were used to assess whether associations with individual and household characteristics varied across positive and negative mental health dimensions. We also explored higher-level variance in these measures, between electoral wards. Results. We found a consistent, replicable factor structure in both datasets. EFA results indicated a two-factor solution, and CFA demonstrated that this was superior to a one-factor model. These factors correspond to ‘symptoms of mental disorder’ and ‘positive mental health’. Further analyses demonstrated independence of these factors in associations with age, gender, employment status, poor housing and household composition. Statistically significant ward-level variance was found for symptoms of mental disorder but not positive mental health. Conclusions. The GHQ-12 measures both positive and negative aspects of mental health, and although correlated, these dimensions have some independence. The GHQ-12 could be used to measure positive mental health in population-based research

Variation of the Diameter of the Sun as Measured by the Solar Disk Sextant (SDS)

The balloon-borne Solar Disk Sextant (SDS) experiment has measured the angular size of the Sun on seven occasions spanning the years 1992 to 2011. The solar half-diameter -- observed in a 100-nm wide passband centred at 615 nm -- is found to vary over that period by up to 200 mas, while the typical estimated uncertainty of each measure is 20 mas. The diameter variation is not in phase with the solar activity cycle; thus, the measured diameter variation cannot be explained as an observational artefact of surface activity. Other possible instrument-related explanations for the observed variation are considered but found unlikely, leading us to conclude that the variation is real. The SDS is described here in detail, as is the complete analysis procedure necessary to calibrate the instrument and allow comparison of diameter measures across decades.Comment: 41 pages; appendix and 2 figures added plus some changes in text based on referee's comments; to appear in MNRA

A smart climatology of evaporation duct height and surface radar propagation in the Indian Ocean

Surface electromagnetic propagation over the ocean is highly sensitive to near-surface atmospheric variability, particularly the height of the evaporation duct. Seasonal variation in near-surface meterological factors and sea surface temperatures impact the evaporation duct height (EDH). Present U.S. Navy EDH climatology is based on sparse ship observations over a relatively short time period and an outdated evaporation duct (ED) model. This EDH climatology does not utilize smart, or modern, climatology datasets or methods and provides only long term mean (LTM) values of EDH. We have used existing, civilian, dynamically balanced reanalysis data, for 1970 to 2006, and a state-of-the-art ED model, to produce a spatially and temporally refined EDH climatology for the Indian Ocean (IO) and nearby seas. Comparisons of the present U.S. Navy EDH climatology with our climatology show a number of differences. These differences, and the differences in the methods used to generate the two climatologies, indicate that the EDH climatology we have generated provides a more accurate depiction of EDH. The EDH climatology we have produced provides LTM EDH values. But the data and methods we used to create this climatology also allowed us to examine the impacts of climate variations on EDH. Climate variations can have major impacts on the upper ocean and overlying lower troposphere. These impacts can lead to major fluctuations in the factors that determine EDH, and can thereby alter the propagation of EM signals through the atmosphere. The IO and nearby seas are strongly affected by a number of climate variations (e.g., El NinÌ o-La NinÌ a (ENLN), Indian Ocean Zonal Mode (IOZM)). These climate variations are known to lead to large anomalies in sea surface temperature, air temperature, winds, humidity, and other variables in the IO; however, the associated impacts on EDH and EM propagation have not been identified. To assess these impacts, reanalysis data composited by season and climate variation were processed using: (1) the NPS ED model to assess the impacts of the climate variations on EDH; and (2) the Advanced Refraction Effects Prediction System (AREPS) to assess the impacts of the variations on radar propagation. Our results show significant variations in EDH and AREPS ranges associated with the climate variations that affect the IO and nearby regions. These climate variations are predictable on weekly and longer time scales. In addition, for several seasons, EDH is significantly correlated with the climate variation when EDH lags by zero, one, and two months. Thus, there appears to be potential for climate scale forecasting of EDH and radar propagation at weekly to monthly lead times. For areas of operational interest, we conducted correlation analyses of EDH with its associated factors to further our understanding of the processes that cause spatial and temporal variations of EDH. These correlation results provide insights into the spatial and temporal sensitivity of EDH to the factors. Thus, they provide guidance on how to focus research, development, and operational efforts aimed at improving analyses and forecasts of EDH. We used the EDH climatology created in this study to generate climatological sensor performance surfaces for radar propagation. These surfaces are maps of climatological surface radar propagation over the IO and nearby seas under different climatological conditions (e.g., different months, locations, climate variations, and regimes). The performance surfaces are prototypes of operational climatological products, and examples of the improved climatological products that can be developed using smart climatology data and methods. These results indicate that climatological support for military planners could be substantially improved by using a smart climatology approach (i.e., applying state-of-the-art climate datasets, analysis, and forecasting methods).http://archive.org/details/asmartclimatolog109453221Royal Navy authorApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Validation of a Novel Screening Tool for Obstructive Sleep Apnoea in Bariatric Surgery Candidates

Undiagnosed obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) is increasingly recognised as a serious post-operative risk with bariatric surgery. Demand for pre-operative screening for OSA in bariatric surgery candidates is rising and there is a need for simple, cost-effective screening methods to mitigate the stain on Sleep Services. WatchPAT is a relatively new device, which uses peripheral arterial tonometry rather than airflow to estimate the apnoea hypopnoea index (AHI). While WatchPAT use is increasing in the general sleep clinic population it has not yet been validated in patients with a BMI >35, i.e. the target population in bariatric surgery. The studies described in this thesis aim to validate WatchPAT against the clinical gold-standard in patients on the bariatric pathway and to assess patient acceptability of WatchPAT. 28 bariatric surgery candidates (22 female/6 male, mean ± SD age 44.1 ± 11.6 years, BMI 45.7 ± 7.5 kg/m2) wore WatchPAT 300 and Embletta MPR simultaneously for one night and the outcome measure, AHI was compared in the two devices. AHI was higher in WatchPAT than Embletta (Median (range) 23.5 (3.9-70.6) versus 11.7 (0.7-46.5) events per hour; z=-4.623, p=0.000). There was a strong positive correlation between WatchPAT and Embletta AHI measurements (r=0.849; p=0.000). Bland Altman plots revealed a systematic bias; differences diverging at higher AHI values. ROC plots were constructed for a range of AHI cut-offs; AUC was highest for an AHI ≥20 (0.986), ≥15 (0.947) and AHI ≥30 (0.979), while for AHI ≥5 the AUC was 0.850. 97% of respondents reported that WatchPAT would be acceptable to them if introduced into the bariatric surgery pathway. These results are similar to those in the non-bariatric sleep clinic population and suggest that WatchPAT may suitable for use in bariatric surgery patients requiring screening for OSA though further larger scale studies are needed to confirm these findings before incorporating into clinical guidelines

Why 0.02%? A review of the basis for current broadscale control of rabbits in New Zealand

Nugent, G., Warburton, B., Fisher, P., Twigg, L., Cowan, P

The pharmacy care plan service: Service evaluation and estimate of cost-effectiveness

Background: The UK Community Pharmacy Future group developed the Pharmacy Care Plan (PCP) service with a focus on patient activation, goal setting and therapy management.  Objective: To estimate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the PCP service from a health services perspective.  Methods: Patients over 50 years of age prescribed one or more medicines including at least one for cardiovascular disease or diabetes were eligible. Medication review and person-centred consultation resulted in agreed health goals and actions towards achieving them. Clinical, process and cost-effectiveness data were collected at baseline and 12-months between February 2015 and June 2016. Mean differences are reported for clinical and process measures. Costs (NHS) and quality-adjusted life year scores were estimated and compared for 12 months pre- and post-baseline.  Results: Seven hundred patients attended the initial consultation and 54% had a complete set of data obtained. There was a significant improvement in patient activation score (mean difference 5.39; 95% CI 3.9 – 6.9; p<0.001), systolic (mean difference -2.90 mmHg ; 95% CI -4.7 - -1; p=0.002) and diastolic blood pressure (mean difference -1.81 mmHg; 95% CI -2.8 - -0.8; p<0.001), adherence (mean difference 0.26; 95% CI 0.1 – 0.4; p<0.001) and quality of life (mean difference 0.029; 95% CI 0.015 – 0.044; p<0.001). HDL cholesterol reduced significantly and QRisk2 scores increased significantly over the course of the 12 months. The mean incremental cost associated with the intervention was estimated to be £202.91 (95% CI 58.26 to £346.41) and the incremental QALY gain was 0.024 (95% CI 0.014 to 0.034), giving an incremental cost per QALY of £8,495.  Conclusions: Enrolment in the PCP service was generally associated with an improvement over 12 months in key clinical and process metrics. Results also suggest that the service would be cost-effective to the health system even when using worst case assumptions

Exact Variance Component Tests for Longitudinal Microbiome Studies

In metagenomic studies, testing the association of microbiome composition and clinical outcomes translates to testing the nullity of variance components. Motivated by a lung HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) microbiome project, we study longitudinal microbiome data by variance component models with more than two variance components. Current testing strategies only apply to the models with exactly two variance components and when sample sizes are large. Therefore, they are not applicable to longitudinal microbiome studies. In this paper, we propose exact tests (score test, likelihood ratio test, and restricted likelihood ratio test) to (1) test the association of the overall microbiome composition in a longitudinal design and (2) detect the association of one specific microbiome cluster while adjusting for the effects from related clusters. Our approach combines the exact tests for null hypothesis with a single variance component with a strategy of reducing multiple variance components to a single one. Simulation studies demonstrate that our method has correct type I error rate and superior power compared to existing methods at small sample sizes and weak signals. Finally, we apply our method to a longitudinal pulmonary microbiome study of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infected patients and reveal two interesting genera Prevotella and Veillonella associated with forced vital capacity. Our findings shed lights on the impact of lung microbiome to HIV complexities. The method is implemented in the open source, high-performance computing language Julia and is freely available at https://github.com/JingZhai63/VCmicrobiome

STROZ Lidar Results at the MOHAVE III Campaign, October, 2009, Table Mountain, CA

During October, 2009 the GSFC STROZ Lidar participated in a campaign at the JPL Table Mountain Facility (Wrightwood, CA, 2285 m Elevation) to measure vertical profiles of water vapor from near the ground to the lower stratosphere. On eleven nights, water vapor, aerosol, temperature and ozone profiles were measured by the STROZ lidar, two other similar lidars, frost-point hygrometer sondes, and ground-based microwave instruments made measurements. Results from these measurements and an evaluation of the performance of the STROZ lidar during the campaign will be presented in this paper. The STROZ lidar was able to measure water vapor up to 13-14 km ASL during the campaign. We will present results from all the STROZ data products and comparisons with other instruments made. Implications for instrumental changes will be discussed