Turkish Twin Effects: An Error Correction Model of Trade Balance

Twin deficit hypothesis mainly states that government budget deficits will cause trade deficits. However, this is not the only theoretically possible relationship between the budget deficit and the trade deficit. On the other extreme if Ricardian equivalence hypothesis holds it is also possible that two deficits are not related at all. In this study these hypotheses between the budget deficit and trade deficit for Turkey between 1987 - 2001 period are examined by using the cointegration methodology and by estimating an error correction model. This enabled us to search the relationship between the internal and external deficits both in the short-run and in the long-run. Our analysis showed that there is a long-run relationship between the two deficits. Also the short-run model yielded that worsening of the budget balance worsens the trade balance. Therefore we have concluded that the twin deficit hypothesis holds, and Ricardian equivalence hypothesis is not valid for Turkey during the study period.Twin deficits, trade deficit, budget deficit, Ricardian equivalence, cointegration, error correction models, unit roots, Turkey

A Falsificationist Treatment of Auxiliary Hypotheses in Social and Behavioral Sciences:Systematic Replications Framework

Auxiliary hypotheses (AHs) are indispensable in hypothesis-testing, because without them specification of testable predictions and consequently falsification is impossible. However, as AHs enter the test along with the main hypothesis, non-corroborative findings are ambiguous. Due to this ambiguity, AHs may also be employed to deflect falsification by providing “alternative explanations” of findings. This is not fatal to the extent that AHs are independently validated and safely relegated to background knowledge. But this is not always possible, especially in the so-called “softer” sciences where often theories are loosely organized, measurements are noisy, and constructs are vague. The Systematic Replications Framework (SRF) provides a methodological solution by disentangling the implications of the findings for the main hypothesis and the AHs through pre-planned series of systematically interlinked close and conceptual replications. SRF facilitates testing alternative explanations associated with different AHs and thereby increases test severity across a battery of tests. In this way, SRF assesses whether the corroboration of a hypothesis is conditional on particular AHs, and thus allows for a more objective evaluation of its empirical support and whether post hoc modifications to the theory are progressive or degenerative in the Lakatosian sense. Finally, SRF has several advantages over randomization-based systematic replication proposals, which generally assume a problematic neo-operationalist approach that prescribes exploration-oriented strategies in confirmatory contexts

Effect of cutting conditions and tool geometry on process damping in machining

Process damping can be a significant source of enhanced stability in metal cutting operations especially at low cutting speeds. However, it is usually ignored in stability analysis since models and methods on prediction and identification of process damping are very limited. In this study, the effects of cutting conditions and tool geometry on process stability in turning and milling are investigated. The previously developed models by the authors are used in simulations to demonstrate conditions for increased process damping, and thus chatter stability. Some representative cases are presented and verified by experimental data and conclusions are derived

On the stability of solutions of nonlinear differential equations of fifth order with delay

Criteria for global asymptotic stability of a null solution of a nonlinear differential equation of fifth order with delay% begin{eqnarray*} &&x^{(5)}(t)+psi (x(t-r),x^{prime }(t-r),x^{prime prime }(t-r),x^{prime prime prime }(t-r),x^{(4)}(t-r))x^{(4)}(t) \ &&quad+f(x^{prime prime }(t-r),x^{prime prime prime }(t-r))+alpha _{3}x^{prime prime }(t)+alpha _{4}x^{prime }(t)+alpha _{5}x(t)=0 end{eqnarray*} are obtained by using Lyapunov\u27s second method. By defining a Lyapunov functional, sufficient conditions are established, which guarantee the null solution of this equation is globally asymptotically stable. Our result consists of a new theorem on the subject

Öyküleriyle Sabahattin Ali:''Değirmen'' döner, ''sırça köşk'' durur

Taha Toros Arşivi, Dosya No: 4-Sabahattin Aliİstanbul Kalkınma Ajansı (TR10/14/YEN/0033) İstanbul Development Agency (TR10/14/YEN/0033

Bir Türk kotrası okyanusu aşacak

Taha Toros Arşivi, Dosya No: 31-Mardin Ailesiİstanbul Kalkınma Ajansı (TR10/14/YEN/0033) İstanbul Development Agency (TR10/14/YEN/0033

Sait Faik ölmez ki...

Taha Toros Arşivi, Dosya No: 5-Sait Faik Abasıyanıkİstanbul Kalkınma Ajansı (TR10/14/YEN/0033) İstanbul Development Agency (TR10/14/YEN/0033

Pollution Haven Hypothesis and the Role of Dirty Industries in Turkey’s Exports

Pollution haven hypothesis argues that the industries that are highly pollution intensive i.e. dirty industries, have been migrating from developed economies to the developing world. It is argued that the environmental concerns of the developed economies caused them to enact strict environmental regulations, which have increased the cost of production of the dirty industries at home. On the other hand, the developing countries with their low wages and lax environmental regulations have been attractive alternative producers in these sectors. At the same time this migration is also beneficial for developing countries that are in need of financial resources for industrial development. Consequently, developing countries provide pollution havens for dirty industries. In this process while the dirty industries have been migrating to the developing countries, the developed countries also have become net importers of these sectors. In this study the pollution haven argument for Turkey, for 1994-1997 period is examined. The study focuses on the pollution haven hypothesis from trade perspective by looking at the manufacturing industry data at 4-digit ISIC detail by using the panel data approach. It is found that exports increase as the dirtiness of the industries increases, providing some evidence for the pollution haven hypothesis.Turkey, Pollution Haven Hypothesis, environment, manufacturing

Qualitative properties in nonlinear Volterra integro-differential equations with delay

AbstractThis paper considers a class of scalar and vector nonlinear Volterra integro-differential equations of the first order with a constant delay. We demonstrate the stability, uniform stability, boundedness, convergence and square integrability of the solutions. The technique of proof involves defining appropriate Lyapunov functionals. Our results improve the results obtained in the literature

Fahrünnisa Zeidin ikinci sergisi

Taha Toros Arşivi, Dosya No: 15-Fahrünnisa Zeid. Not: Gazetenin "San'at Aleminde" köşesinde yayımlanmıştır.İstanbul Kalkınma Ajansı (TR10/14/YEN/0033) İstanbul Development Agency (TR10/14/YEN/0033