Constraining two climate field reconstruction methodologies over the North Atlantic realm using pseudo-proxy experiments

This study presents pseudo-proxy experiments to quantify the reconstruction skill of two climate field reconstruction methodologies for a marine proxy network subject to age uncertainties. The BARCAST methodology (Bayesian Algorithm for Reconstructing Climate Anomalies in Space and Time) is tested for sea surface temperature (SST) reconstruction for the first time over the northern North Atlantic region, and compared with a classic analogue reconstruction methodology. The reconstruction experiments are performed at annual and decadal resolution. We implement chronological uncertainties inherent to marine proxies as a novelty, using a simulated age-model ensemble covering the past millennium. Our experiments comprise different scenarios for the input data network, with the noise levels added to the target variable extending from ideal to realistic. Results show that both methodologies are able to reconstruct the Summer mean SST skillfully when the proxy network is considered absolutely dated, but the skill of the analogue method is superior to BARCAST. Only the analogue method provides skillful correlations with the true target variable in the case of a realistic noisy and age-uncertain proxy network. The spatiotemporal properties of the input target data are partly contrasting with the BARCAST model formulations, resulting in an inferior reconstruction ensemble that is similar to a white-noise stochastic process in time. The analogue method is also successful in reconstructing decadal temperatures, while BARCAST fails. The results contribute to constraining uncertainties in CFR for ocean dynamics which are highly important for climate across the globe

Constraining two climate field reconstruction methodologies over the North Atlantic realm using pseudo-proxy experiments

This study presents pseudo-proxy experiments to quantify the reconstruction skill of two climate field reconstruction methodologies for a marine proxy network subject to age uncertainties. The BARCAST methodology (Bayesian Algorithm for Reconstructing Climate Anomalies in Space and Time) is tested for sea surface temperature (SST) reconstruction for the first time over the northern North Atlantic region, and compared with a classic analogue reconstruction methodology. The reconstruction experiments are performed at annual and decadal resolution. We implement chronological uncertainties inherent to marine proxies as a novelty, using a simulated age-model ensemble covering the past millennium. Our experiments comprise different scenarios for the input data network, with the noise levels added to the target variable extending from ideal to realistic. Results show that both methodologies are able to reconstruct the Summer mean SST skillfully when the proxy network is considered absolutely dated, but the skill of the analogue method is superior to BARCAST. Only the analogue method provides skillful correlations with the true target variable in the case of a realistic noisy and age-uncertain proxy network. The spatiotemporal properties of the input target data are partly contrasting with the BARCAST model formulations, resulting in an inferior reconstruction ensemble that is similar to a white-noise stochastic process in time. The analogue method is also successful in reconstructing decadal temperatures, while BARCAST fails. The results contribute to constraining uncertainties in CFR for ocean dynamics which are highly important for climate across the globe

Constraining two climate field reconstruction methodologies over the North Atlantic realm using pseudo-proxy experiments

This study presents pseudo-proxy experiments to quantify the reconstruction skill of two climate field reconstruction methodologies for a marine proxy network subject to age uncertainties. The BARCAST methodology (Bayesian Algorithm for Reconstructing Climate Anomalies in Space and Time) is tested for sea surface temperature (SST) reconstruction for the first time over the northern North Atlantic region, and compared with a classic analogue reconstruction methodology. The reconstruction experiments are performed at annual and decadal resolution. We implement chronological uncertainties inherent to marine proxies as a novelty, using a simulated age-model ensemble covering the past millennium. Our experiments comprise different scenarios for the input data network, with the noise levels added to the target variable extending from ideal to realistic. Results show that both methodologies are able to reconstruct the Summer mean SST skillfully when the proxy network is considered absolutely dated, but the skill of the analogue method is superior to BARCAST. Only the analogue method provides skillful correlations with the true target variable in the case of a realistic noisy and age-uncertain proxy network. The spatiotemporal properties of the input target data are partly contrasting with the BARCAST model formulations, resulting in an inferior reconstruction ensemble that is similar to a white-noise stochastic process in time. The analogue method is also successful in reconstructing decadal temperatures, while BARCAST fails. The results contribute to constraining uncertainties in CFR for ocean dynamics which are highly important for climate across the globe

Constraining two climate field reconstruction methodologies over the North Atlantic realm using pseudo-proxy experiments

This study presents pseudo-proxy experiments to quantify the reconstruction skill of two climate field reconstruction methodologies for a marine proxy network subject to age uncertainties. The BARCAST methodology (Bayesian Algorithm for Reconstructing Climate Anomalies in Space and Time) is tested for sea surface temperature (SST) reconstruction for the first time over the northern North Atlantic region, and compared with a classic analogue reconstruction methodology. The reconstruction experiments are performed at annual and decadal resolution. We implement chronological uncertainties inherent to marine proxies as a novelty, using a simulated age-model ensemble covering the past millennium. Our experiments comprise different scenarios for the input data network, with the noise levels added to the target variable extending from ideal to realistic. Results show that both methodologies are able to reconstruct the Summer mean SST skillfully when the proxy network is considered absolutely dated, but the skill of the analogue method is superior to BARCAST. Only the analogue method provides skillful correlations with the true target variable in the case of a realistic noisy and age-uncertain proxy network. The spatiotemporal properties of the input target data are partly contrasting with the BARCAST model formulations, resulting in an inferior reconstruction ensemble that is similar to a white-noise stochastic process in time. The analogue method is also successful in reconstructing decadal temperatures, while BARCAST fails. The results contribute to constraining uncertainties in CFR for ocean dynamics which are highly important for climate across the globe

Constraining two climate field reconstruction methodologies over the North Atlantic realm using pseudo-proxy experiments

This study presents pseudo-proxy experiments to quantify the reconstruction skill of two climate field reconstruction methodologies for a marine proxy network subject to age uncertainties. The BARCAST methodology (Bayesian Algorithm for Reconstructing Climate Anomalies in Space and Time) is tested for sea surface temperature (SST) reconstruction for the first time over the northern North Atlantic region, and compared with a classic analogue reconstruction methodology. The reconstruction experiments are performed at annual and decadal resolution. We implement chronological uncertainties inherent to marine proxies as a novelty, using a simulated age-model ensemble covering the past millennium. Our experiments comprise different scenarios for the input data network, with the noise levels added to the target variable extending from ideal to realistic. Results show that both methodologies are able to reconstruct the Summer mean SST skillfully when the proxy network is considered absolutely dated, but the skill of the analogue method is superior to BARCAST. Only the analogue method provides skillful correlations with the true target variable in the case of a realistic noisy and age-uncertain proxy network. The spatiotemporal properties of the input target data are partly contrasting with the BARCAST model formulations, resulting in an inferior reconstruction ensemble that is similar to a white-noise stochastic process in time. The analogue method is also successful in reconstructing decadal temperatures, while BARCAST fails. The results contribute to constraining uncertainties in CFR for ocean dynamics which are highly important for climate across the globe

Respective impacts of Arctic sea ice decline and increasing greenhouse gases concentration on Sahel precipitation

The impact of climate change on Sahel precipitation is uncertain and has to be widely documented. Recently, it has been shown that Arctic sea ice loss leverages the global warming effects worldwide, suggesting a potential impact of Arctic sea ice decline on tropical regions. However, defining the specific roles of increasing greenhouse gases (GHG) concentration and declining Arctic sea ice extent on Sahel climate is not straightforward since the former impacts the latter. We avoid this dependency by analysing idealized experiments performed with the CNRM-CM5 coupled model. Results show that the increase in GHG concentration explains most of the Sahel precipitation change. We found that the impact due to Arctic sea ice loss depends on the level of atmospheric GHG concentration. When the GHG concentration is relatively low (values representative of 1980s), then the impact is moderate over the Sahel. However, when the concentration in GHG is levelled up, then Arctic sea ice loss leads to increased Sahel precipitation. In this particular case the ocean-land meridional gradient of temperature strengthens, allowing a more intense monsoon circulation. We linked the non-linearity of Arctic sea ice decline impact with differences in temperature and sea level pressure changes over the North Atlantic Ocean. We argue that the impact of the Arctic sea ice loss will become more relevant with time, in the context of climate change

European candidaemia is characterised by notable differential epidemiology and susceptibility pattern: Results from the ECMM Candida III study.

The objectives of this study were to assess Candida spp. distribution and antifungal resistance of candidaemia across Europe. Isolates were collected as part of the third ECMM Candida European multicentre observational study, conducted from 01 to 07-07-2018 to 31-03-2022. Each centre (maximum number/country determined by population size) included ∼10 consecutive cases. Isolates were referred to central laboratories and identified by morphology and MALDI-TOF, supplemented by ITS-sequencing when needed. EUCAST MICs were determined for five antifungals. fks sequencing was performed for echinocandin resistant isolates. The 399 isolates from 41 centres in 17 countries included C. albicans (47.1%), C. glabrata (22.3%), C. parapsilosis (15.0%), C. tropicalis (6.3%), C. dubliniensis and C. krusei (2.3% each) and other species (4.8%). Austria had the highest C. albicans proportion (77%), Czech Republic, France and UK the highest C. glabrata proportions (25-33%) while Italy and Turkey had the highest C. parapsilosis proportions (24-26%). All isolates were amphotericin B susceptible. Fluconazole resistance was found in 4% C. tropicalis, 12% C. glabrata (from six countries across Europe), 17% C. parapsilosis (from Greece, Italy, and Turkey) and 20% other Candida spp. Four isolates were anidulafungin and micafungin resistant/non-wild-type and five resistant to micafungin only. Three/3 and 2/5 of these were sequenced and harboured fks-alterations including a novel L657W in C. parapsilosis. The epidemiology varied among centres and countries. Acquired echinocandin resistance was rare but included differential susceptibility to anidulafungin and micafungin, and resistant C. parapsilosis. Fluconazole and voriconazole cross-resistance was common in C. glabrata and C. parapsilosis but with different geographical prevalence

Predictors for prolonged hospital stay solely to complete intravenous antifungal treatment in patients with candidemia: Results from the ECMM candida III multinational European observational cohort study

Background To date, azoles represent the only viable option for oral treatment of invasive Candida infections, while rates of azole resistance among non-albicans Candida spp. continue to increase. The objective of this sub-analysis of the European multicenter observational cohort study Candida III was to describe demographical and clinical characteristics of the cohort requiring prolonged hospitalization solely to complete intravenous (iv) antifungal treatment (AF Tx). Methods Each participating hospital (number of eligible hospitals per country determined by population size) included the first ~ 10 blood culture proven adult candidemia cases occurring consecutively after July 1st, 2018, and treating physicians answered the question on whether hospital stay was prolonged only for completion of intravenous antifungal therapy. Descriptive analyses as well as binary logistic regression was used to assess for predictors of prolonged hospitalization solely to complete iv AF Tx. Findings Hospital stay was prolonged solely for the completion of iv AF Tx in 16% (100/621) of candidemia cases by a median of 16 days (IQR 8 – 28). In the multivariable model, initial echinocandin treatment was a positive predictor for prolonged hospitalization to complete iv AF Tx (aOR 2.87, 95% CI 1.55 – 5.32, p < 0.001), while (i) neutropenia, (ii) intensive care unit admission, (iii) catheter related candidemia, (iv) total parenteral nutrition, and (v) C. parapsilosis as causative pathogen were found to be negative predictors (aOR 0.22 – 0.45; p < 0.03). Interpretation Hospital stays were prolonged due to need of iv AF Tx in 16% of patients with candidemia. Those patients were more likely to receive echinocandins as initial treatment and were less severely ill and less likely infected with C. parapsilosis