Correlation of Early Outcomes and Intradiscal Interleukin-6 Expression in Lumbar Fusion Patients.

OBJECTIVE: To determine if there is correlation between intradiscal levels of interleukin-6 (IL-6) and early outcome measures in patients undergoing lumbar fusion for painful disc degeneration. METHODS: Intervertebral disc tissue was separated into annulus fibrosus/nucleus pulposus and cultured separately in vitro in serum-free medium (Opti-MEM). Conditioned media was collected after 48 hours. The concentration of IL-6 was quantified using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Pearson correlation coefficients quantified relationships between IL-6 levels and pre- and postoperative visual analogue scale (VAS) back pain and Oswestry Disability Index (ODI), as well as change in VAS/ODI. RESULTS: Sixteen discs were harvested from 9 patients undergoing anterior lumbar interbody fusion (mean age, 47.4 years; range, 21-70 years). Mean preoperative and 6-month postoperative VAS were 8.1 and 3.7, respectively. Mean preoperative and postoperative ODI were 56.2 and 25.6, respectively. There were significant positive correlations between IL-6 expression and postoperative VAS (ρ = 0.38, p = 0.048) and ODI (ρ = 0.44, p = 0.02). No significant correlations were found between intradiscal IL-6 expression and preoperative VAS (ρ = -0.12, p = 0.54). Trends were seen associating IL-6 expression and change in VAS/ODI (ρ = -0.35 p = 0.067; ρ = -0.34, p = 0.08, respectively). A trend associated IL-6 and preoperative ODI (ρ = 0.36, p = 0.063). CONCLUSION: The direct association between IL-6 expression and VAS/ODI suggests patients with elevated intradiscal cytokine expression may have worse early outcomes than those with lower expression of IL-6 after surgery for symptomatic disc degeneration

Age-specific survival of reintroduced swift fox in Badlands National Park and surrounding lands

In 2003, a reintroduction program was initiated at Badlands National Park (BNP), South Dakota, USA, with swift foxes (Vulpes velox) translocated from Colorado and Wyoming, USA, as part of a restoration effort to recover declining swift fox populations throughout its historical range. Estimates of age-specific survival are necessary to evaluate the potential for population growth of reintroduced populations. We used 7 years (2003–2009) of capture–recapture data of 243 pups, 29 yearlings, and 69 adult swift foxes at BNP and the surrounding area to construct Cormack–Jolly–Seber model estimates of apparent survival within a capture–mark–recapture framework using Program MARK. The best model for estimating recapture probabilities included no differences among age classes, greater recapture probabilities during early years of the monitoring effort than later years, and variation among spring, winter, and summer. Our top ranked survival model indicated pup survival differed from that of yearlings and adults and varied by month and year. The apparent annual survival probability of pups (0.47, SE = 0.10) in our study area was greater than the apparent annual survival probability of yearlings and adults (0.27, SE = 0.08). Our results indicate low survival probabilities for a reintroduced population of swift foxes in the BNP and surrounding areas. Management of reintroduced populations and future reintroductions of swift foxes should consider the effects of relative low annual survival on population demography

Ad hoc Smoothing Parameter Performance in Kernel Estimates of GPS-derived Home Ranges

Accuracy of home-range estimates in animals is influenced by a variety of factors, such as method of analysis and number of locations, but animal space use is less often considered and frequently over-generalized through simulations. Our objective was to assess effect of an ad hoc (h_ad hoc)smoothing parameter in kernel analysis from two species that were predicted to have different patterns of utilization distributions across a range of sample sizes. We evaluated variation in home-range estimates with location data collected from GPS collars on two species: mule deer Odocoileus hemionus and coyotes Canis latrans. We calculated home ranges using 95% and 50% kernel contours using reference (h_ref and h ad hoc smoothing parameters. To evaluate the influence of sample size, we calculated home ranges using both smoothing parameters for random subsamples of 5, 10, 25 and 50% of GPS locations and compared area estimates to estimates for 100% of GPS locations. On mule deer, we also conducted visual relocations using conventional radiotelemetry, which resulted in fewer locations than GPS collars. Area was overestimated at smaller sample sizes, but an interesting pattern was noted with higher relative bias at 60–100 locations than at sample sizes \u3c 50 locations. Relative bias was most likely due to increased smoothing of outer data points. Subsampling allowed us to examine relative bias across a range of samples sizes for the two smoothing parameters. Minimum number of points to obtain a consistent home range estimates varied by smoothing method, species, study duration, and volume contour (95% or 50%). While h_ad hoc performed consistently better over most sample sizes, there may not be a universal recommendation for all studies and species. Behavioral traits resulting in concentrated or disparate space use complicates comparisons among and between species. We suggest researchers examine their point distribution, justify their choice of smoothing parameter, and report their choices for home-range analysis based on their study objectives

Microhabitat Selection by Bobcats in the Badlands and Black Hills of South Dakota, USA: A Comparison of Prairie and Forested Habitats

An understanding of habitat selection is important for management of wildlife species. Although bobcat (lynx rufus) resource selection has been addressed in many regions of the United States, little work has been conducted in the Northern Great Plains. From 2006- 2008 we captured and radiocollared 20 bobcats in the Badlands (n = I 0) and Black Hills (n = I 0) regions of South Dakota. During the summers of 2008 and 2009 we collected habitat measurements at 349 ( 176 Badlands, 176 Black Hills) bobcat locations and 321 ( 148 Badlands, 173 Black Hills) random sites. Microhabitat characteristics at bobcat use sites varied with region (P \u3c 0.001) and sex of bobcat (P \u3c 0.00 I). Percent slope, shrub, low cover, medium cover, and total cover were greater (P :S 0.017) at bobcat locations in the Black Hills than in the Badlands whereas distance to drainage was greater (P \u3c 0.001) at locations in the Badlands than in the Black Hills. In the Badlands, male bobcat locations were closer (P :S 0.002) to prairie dog towns and drainages and had greater (P \u3c 0.05) percent forbs and forb height than random sites, whereas females were closer to badland formations (P \u3c 0.00 I) than random sites. In the Black Hills, male locations were at greater elevation (P \u3c 0.00 I) and female locations were characterized by greater (P :S 0.02) grass height, shrub height, low cover, and total cover than random sites. Logistic regression indicated that microhabitat selection was similar between study areas; odds ratios indicated that odds of bobcat use increased by 0.998 (95% CI = 0.997-0.999) per I m increase in distance to drainage, 0.986 (95% CI= 0.978-0.993) per 1.0% increase in grass cover, by 1.024 (95% Cl = 1.011 - 1.036) per I cm increase in grass height, by 1.013 (95% CI = 1.003-1.024) per I% increase in forb cover, and by 1.028 (95% Cl = 1.017- 1.039) per I% increase in medium cover. Our results were similar to other bobcat microhabitat selection studies, where bobcat relocations were associated with understory vegetation, drainages, and rugged terrain. These results identify the adaptability of the species to meet life history requirements in a variety of landscapes, and provide insight to how land use requirements vary within regional and management boundaries

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2020 media futures trends package

2020 Media Futures is a mul6-­‐industry strategic foresight project designed to understand and envision what media may look like in the year 2020; what kind of cross-­‐plaAorm Internet environment may shape our media and entertainment in the coming decade; and how Ontario firms take ac6on today toward capturing and maintaining posi6ons of na6onal and interna6onal leadership. The project asks: In the face of sweeping and disrupDve changes driven by the Internet, how can we help companies in the book, film, interacDve, magazine, music and television industries – Ontario’s CreaDve and Entertainment Cluster – to beNer idenDfy emerging opportuniDes, create more resilient strategic plans and partnerships, boost innovaDon, and compete in increasingly demanding global markets? This document is a product of our ‘horizon scanning’ process. Trends and Countertrends represent direcDonal paNerns in data, a rising Dde of signals, in which, for example, a criDcal mass of headlines about people using Facebook to call for help in emergency situaDons points to a larger trend regarding the increasing mission-­‐criDcal importance of social networks. To date we have idenDfied more than sixty trends at the project website: hNp://2020mediafutures.ca/Trend

The Utility of Transient Sensitivity for Wildlife Management and Conservation: Bison as a Case Study

Developing effective management strategies is essential to conservation biology. Population models and sensitivity analyses on model parameters have provided a means to quantitatively compare different management strategies, allowing managers to objectively assess the resulting impacts. Inference from traditional sensitivity analyses (i.e., eigenvalue sensitivity methods) is only valid for a population at its stable age distribution, while more recent methods have relaxed this assumption and instead focused on transient population dynamics. However, very few case studies, especially in long-lived vertebrates where transient dynamics are potentially most relevant, have applied these transient sensitivity methods and compared them to eigenvalue sensitivity methods. We use bison (Bison bison) at Badlands National Park as a case study to demonstrate the benefits of transient methods in a practical management scenario involving culling strategies. Using an age and stage-structured population model that incorporates culling decisions, we find that culling strategies over short time-scales (e.g., 1–5 years) are driven largely by the standing population distribution. However, over longer time-scales (e.g., 25 years), culling strategies are governed by reproductive output. In addition, after 25 years, the strategies predicted by transient methods qualitatively coincide with those predicted by traditional eigenvalue sensitivity. Thus, transient sensitivity analyses provide managers with information over multiple time-scales in contrast to the long time-scales associated with eigenvalue sensitivity analyses. This flexibility is ideal for adaptive management schemes and allows managers to balance short-term goals with long-term viability

Observation-based modeling of ozone chemistry in the Seoul metropolitan area during the Korea-United States Air Quality Study (KORUS-AQ)

The Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA) has a population of 24 million and frequently experiences unhealthy levels of ozone (O3). In this work, measurements taken during the Korea-United States Air Quality Study (KORUS-AQ, 2016) are used to explore regional gradients in O3 and its chemical precursors, and an observationally-constrained 0-D photochemical box model is used to quantify key aspects of O3 production including its sensitivity to precursor gases. Box model performance was evaluated by comparing modeled concentrations of select secondary species to airborne measurements. These comparisons indicate that the steady state assumption used in 0-D box models cannot describe select intermediate species, highlighting the importance of having a broad suite of trace gases as model constraints. When fully constrained, aggregated statistics of modeled O3 production rates agreed with observed changes in O3, indicating that the box model was able to represent the majority of O3 chemistry. Comparison of airborne observations between urban Seoul and a downwind receptor site reveal a positive gradient in O3 coinciding with a negative gradient in NOx, no gradient in CH2O, and a slight positive gradient in modeled rates of O3 production. Together, these observations indicate a radical-limited (VOC-limited) O3 production environment in the SMA. Zero-out simulations identified C7+ aromatics as the dominant VOC contributors to O3 production, with isoprene and anthropogenic alkenes making smaller but appreciable contributions. Simulations of model sensitivity to decreases in NOx produced results that were not spatially uniform, with large increases in O3 production predicted for urban Seoul and decreases in O3 production predicted for far-outlying areas. The policy implications of this work are clear: Effective O3 mitigation strategies in the SMA must focus on reducing local emissions of C7+ aromatics, while reductions in NOx emissions may increase O3 in some areas but generally decrease the regional extent of O3 exposure

Sources and characteristics of summertime organic aerosol in the Colorado Front Range: perspective from measurements and WRF-Chem modeling

Abstract. The evolution of organic aerosols (OAs) and their precursors in the boundary layer (BL) of the Colorado Front Range during the Front Range Air Pollution and Photochemistry Éxperiment (FRAPPÉ, July–August 2014) was analyzed by in situ measurements and chemical transport modeling. Measurements indicated significant production of secondary OA (SOA), with enhancement ratio of OA with respect to carbon monoxide (CO) reaching 0.085±0.003 µg m−3 ppbv−1. At background mixing ratios of CO, up to  ∼  1.8 µg m−3 background OA was observed, suggesting significant non-combustion contribution to OA in the Front Range. The mean concentration of OA in plumes with a high influence of oil and natural gas (O&G) emissions was  ∼  40 % higher than in urban-influenced plumes. Positive matrix factorization (PMF) confirmed a dominant contribution of secondary, oxygenated OA (OOA) in the boundary layer instead of fresh, hydrocarbon-like OA (HOA). Combinations of primary OA (POA) volatility assumptions, aging of semi-volatile species, and different emission estimates from the O&G sector were used in the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) simulation scenarios. The assumption of semi-volatile POA resulted in greater than a factor of 10 lower POA concentrations compared to PMF-resolved HOA. Including top-down modified O&G emissions resulted in substantially better agreements in modeled ethane, toluene, hydroxyl radical, and ozone compared to measurements in the high-O&G-influenced plumes. By including emissions from the O&G sector using the top-down approach, it was estimated that the O&G sector contributed to  <  5 % of total OA, but up to 38 % of anthropogenic SOA (aSOA) in the region. The best agreement between the measured and simulated median OA was achieved by limiting the extent of biogenic hydrocarbon aging and consequently biogenic SOA (bSOA) production. Despite a lower production of bSOA in this scenario, contribution of bSOA to total SOA remained high at 40–54 %. Future studies aiming at a better emissions characterization of POA and intermediate-volatility organic compounds (IVOCs) from the O&G sector are valuable