Slower recovery in space before collapse of connected populations

Slower recovery from perturbations near a tipping point and its indirect signatures in fluctuation patterns have been suggested to foreshadow catastrophes in a wide variety of systems. Recent studies of populations in the field and in the laboratory have used time-series data to confirm some of the theoretically predicted early warning indicators, such as an increase in recovery time or in the size and timescale of fluctuations. However, the predictive power of temporal warning signals is limited by the demand for long-term observations. Large-scale spatial data are more accessible, but the performance of warning signals in spatially extended systems needs to be examined empirically. Here we use spatially extended yeast populations, an experimental system with a fold bifurcation (tipping point), to evaluate early warning signals based on spatio-temporal fluctuations and to identify a novel spatial warning indicator. We found that two leading indicators based on fluctuations increased before collapse of connected populations; however, the magnitudes of the increases were smaller than those observed in isolated populations, possibly because local variation is reduced by dispersal. Furthermore, we propose a generic indicator based on deterministic spatial patterns, which we call ‘recovery length’. As the spatial counterpart of recovery time, recovery length is the distance necessary for connected populations to recover from spatial perturbations. In our experiments, recovery length increased substantially before population collapse, suggesting that the spatial scale of recovery can provide a superior warning signal before tipping points in spatially extended systems.United States. National Institutes of Health (NIH R00 GM085279-02)United States. National Institutes of Health (NIH DP2)Alfred P. Sloan FoundationNational Science Foundation (U.S.

Information consumption patterns from big data

Virtual social networks imply an important opportunity to generate friendlier communication bridges between students, teachers and other actors related to the educational field. In this sense, our study presents an approximation to the connection habits between university students in these networks, which in the future will allow to take advantage of these platforms to achieve a successful communication between actors. Thus, the characterization of uses, habits and consumption of virtual social networks becomes very relevant

Functional Locomotor Consequences of Uneven Forefeet for Trot Symmetry in Individual Riding Horses

ABSTRACT: Left-right symmetrical distal limb conformation can be an important prerequisite for a successful performance, and it is often hypothesized that asymmetric or uneven feet are important enhancing factors for the development of lameness. On a population level, it has been demonstrated that uneven footed horses are retiring earlier from elite level competition, but the biomechanical consequences are not yet known. The objectives of this study were to compare the functional locomotor asymmetries of horses with uneven to those with even feet. Hoof kinetics and distal limb kinematics were collected from horses (n = 34) at trot. Dorsal hoof wall angle was used to classify horses as even or uneven (1.5° difference between forefeet respectively) and individual feet as flat (55°). Functional kinetic parameters were compared between even and uneven forefeet using MANOVA followed by ANOVA. The relative influences of differences in hoof angle between the forefeet and of absolute hoof angle on functional parameters were analysed using multiple regression analysis (P<0.05). In horses with uneven feet, the side with the flatter foot showed a significantly larger maximal horizontal braking and vertical ground reaction force, a larger vertical fetlock displacement and a suppler fetlock spring. The foot with a steeper hoof angle was linearly correlated with an earlier braking-propulsion transition. The conformational differences between both forefeet were more important for loading characteristics than the individual foot conformation of each individual horse. The differences in vertical force and braking force between uneven forefeet could imply either an asymmetrical loading pattern without a pathological component or a subclinical lameness as a result of a pathological development in the steeper foot

The Pioneer Anomaly

Radio-metric Doppler tracking data received from the Pioneer 10 and 11 spacecraft from heliocentric distances of 20-70 AU has consistently indicated the presence of a small, anomalous, blue-shifted frequency drift uniformly changing with a rate of ~6 x 10^{-9} Hz/s. Ultimately, the drift was interpreted as a constant sunward deceleration of each particular spacecraft at the level of a_P = (8.74 +/- 1.33) x 10^{-10} m/s^2. This apparent violation of the Newton's gravitational inverse-square law has become known as the Pioneer anomaly; the nature of this anomaly remains unexplained. In this review, we summarize the current knowledge of the physical properties of the anomaly and the conditions that led to its detection and characterization. We review various mechanisms proposed to explain the anomaly and discuss the current state of efforts to determine its nature. A comprehensive new investigation of the anomalous behavior of the two Pioneers has begun recently. The new efforts rely on the much-extended set of radio-metric Doppler data for both spacecraft in conjunction with the newly available complete record of their telemetry files and a large archive of original project documentation. As the new study is yet to report its findings, this review provides the necessary background for the new results to appear in the near future. In particular, we provide a significant amount of information on the design, operations and behavior of the two Pioneers during their entire missions, including descriptions of various data formats and techniques used for their navigation and radio-science data analysis. As most of this information was recovered relatively recently, it was not used in the previous studies of the Pioneer anomaly, but it is critical for the new investigation.Comment: 165 pages, 40 figures, 16 tables; accepted for publication in Living Reviews in Relativit

Socio-Economic Instability and the Scaling of Energy Use with Population Size

The size of the human population is relevant to the development of a sustainable world, yet the forces setting growth or declines in the human population are poorly understood. Generally, population growth rates depend on whether new individuals compete for the same energy (leading to Malthusian or density-dependent growth) or help to generate new energy (leading to exponential and super-exponential growth). It has been hypothesized that exponential and super-exponential growth in humans has resulted from carrying capacity, which is in part determined by energy availability, keeping pace with or exceeding the rate of population growth. We evaluated the relationship between energy use and population size for countries with long records of both and the world as a whole to assess whether energy yields are consistent with the idea of an increasing carrying capacity. We find that on average energy use has indeed kept pace with population size over long time periods. We also show, however, that the energy-population scaling exponent plummets during, and its temporal variability increases preceding, periods of social, political, technological, and environmental change. We suggest that efforts to increase the reliability of future energy yields may be essential for stabilizing both population growth and the global socio-economic system

A falls prevention programme to improve quality of life, physical function and falls efficacy in older people receiving home help services: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Falls and fall-related injuries in older adults are associated with great burdens, both for the individuals, the health care system and the society. Previous research has shown evidence for the efficiency of exercise as falls prevention. An understudied group are older adults receiving home help services, and the effect of a falls prevention programme on health-related quality of life is unclear. The primary aim of this randomised controlled trial is to examine the effect of a falls prevention programme on quality of life, physical function and falls efficacy in older adults receiving home help services. A secondary aim is to explore the mediating factors between falls prevention and health-related quality of life. METHODS: The study is a single-blinded randomised controlled trial. Participants are older adults, aged 67 or older, receiving home help services, who are able to walk with or without walking aids, who have experienced at least one fall during the last 12 months and who have a Mini Mental State Examination of 23 or above. The intervention group receives a programme, based on the Otago Exercise Programme, lasting 12 weeks including home visits and motivational telephone calls. The control group receives usual care. The primary outcome is health-related quality of life (SF-36). Secondary outcomes are leg strength, balance, walking speed, walking habits, activities of daily living, nutritional status and falls efficacy. All measurements are performed at baseline, following intervention at 3 months and at 6 months' follow-up. Sample size, based on the primary outcome, is set to 150 participants randomised into the two arms, including an estimated 15-20% drop out. Participants are recruited from six municipalities in Norway. DISCUSSION: This trial will generate new knowledge on the effects of an exercise falls prevention programme among older fallers receiving home help services. This knowledge will be useful for clinicians, for health managers in the primary health care service and for policy makers

Warming Can Boost Denitrification Disproportionately Due to Altered Oxygen Dynamics

Background: Global warming and the alteration of the global nitrogen cycle are major anthropogenic threats to the environment. Denitrification, the biological conversion of nitrate to gaseous nitrogen, removes a substantial fraction of the nitrogen from aquatic ecosystems, and can therefore help to reduce eutrophication effects. However, potential responses of denitrification to warming are poorly understood. Although several studies have reported increased denitrification rates with rising temperature, the impact of temperature on denitrification seems to vary widely between systems. Methodology/Principal Findings: We explored the effects of warming on denitrification rates using microcosm experiments, field measurements and a simple model approach. Our results suggest that a three degree temperature rise will double denitrification rates. By performing experiments at fixed oxygen concentrations as well as with oxygen concentrations varying freely with temperature, we demonstrate that this strong temperature dependence of denitrification can be explained by a systematic decrease of oxygen concentrations with rising temperature. Warming decreases oxygen concentrations due to reduced solubility, and more importantly, because respiration rates rise more steeply with temperature than photosynthesis. Conclusions/Significance: Our results show that denitrification rates in aquatic ecosystems are strongly temperature dependent, and that this is amplified by the temperature dependencies of photosynthesis and respiration. Our result

Skin cancer screening participation and impact on melanoma incidence in Germany – an observational study on incidence trends in regions with and without population-based screening

Background: The SCREEN (Skin Cancer Research to provide Evidence for Effectiveness of Screening in Northern Germany) project involved population-wide skin cancer screening with whole-body examination by general physicians and dermatologists. It was conducted in the German state of Schleswig-Holstein (July 2003–June 2004), but not in the German state of Saarland. Methods: The population-based registries of Schleswig-Holstein and Saarland provided data on melanoma incidence before, during, and after SCREEN to assess the association of skin cancer screening with incidence. Results: Approximately 19% of the Schleswig-Holstein population participated in SCREEN (women: 27%, men: 10%). A total of 52% of all melanomas diagnosed during SCREEN in Schleswig-Holstein were detected as part of the project. Melanoma incidence increased during SCREEN (invasive melanoma in women: +8.9 per 100 000 (95% confidence intervals (CI): 6.1; 11.7); men: +4.0 per 100 000 (95% CI: 1.6; 6.4)) and decreased afterwards (women: −10.6 per 100 000 (95% CI: −13.3; −7.9); men: −4.1 per 100 000 (95% CI: −6.5; −1.7)). Similar changes were not observed in Saarland that had no such project. The differences between the two states were greatest among women, the group with the greater SCREEN participation. Conclusion: The SCREEN project had a substantial impact on melanoma incidence. This is consistent with the impact of effective screening for other cancers

Formative evaluation of the telecare fall prevention project for older veterans

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Fall prevention interventions for community-dwelling older adults have been found to reduce falls in some research studies. However, wider implementation of fall prevention activities in routine care has yielded mixed results. We implemented a theory-driven program to improve care for falls at our Veterans Affairs healthcare facility. The first project arising from this program used a nurse advice telephone line to identify patients' risk factors for falls and to triage patients to appropriate services. Here we report the formative evaluation of this project.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>To evaluate the intervention we: 1) interviewed patient and employee stakeholders, 2) reviewed participating patients' electronic health record data and 3) abstracted information from meeting minutes. We describe the implementation process, including whether the project was implemented according to plan; identify barriers and facilitators to implementation; and assess the incremental benefit to the quality of health care for fall prevention received by patients in the project. We also estimate the cost of developing the pilot project.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The project underwent multiple changes over its life span, including the addition of an option to mail patients educational materials about falls. During the project's lifespan, 113 patients were considered for inclusion and 35 participated. Patient and employee interviews suggested support for the project, but revealed that transportation to medical care was a major barrier in following up on fall risks identified by nurse telephone triage. Medical record review showed that the project enhanced usual medical care with respect to home safety counseling. We discontinued the program after 18 months due to staffing limitations and competing priorities. We estimated a cost of $9194 for meeting time to develop the project.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The project appeared feasible at its outset but could not be sustained past the first cycle of evaluation due to insufficient resources and a waning of local leadership support due to competing national priorities. Future projects will need both front-level staff commitment and prolonged high-level leadership involvement to thrive.</p