An unexpected disruption of the atmospheric quasi-biennial oscillation

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from AAAS via the DOI in this recordWe thank the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts for providing ERA-Interim and Operational Analysis data (www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts) and the Freie Universität Berlin for providing radiosonde data (www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo). The CMIP5 data was obtained from the British Atmospheric Data Centre (browse.ceda.ac.uk/browse/badc/cmip5). A summary of data used in the study is listed in table S1.One of the most repeatable phenomena seen in the atmosphere, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) between prevailing eastward and westward wind jets in the equatorial stratosphere (approximately 16 to 50 kilometers altitude), was unexpectedly disrupted in February 2016. An unprecedented westward jet formed within the eastward phase in the lower stratosphere and cannot be accounted for by the standard QBO paradigm based on vertical momentum transport. Instead, the primary cause was waves transporting momentum from the Northern Hemisphere. Seasonal forecasts did not predict the disruption, but analogous QBO disruptions are seen very occasionally in some climate simulations. A return to more typical QBO behavior within the next year is forecast, although the possibility of more frequent occurrences of similar disruptions is projected for a warming climate.S.M.O. was supported by UK Natural Environment Research Council grants NE/M005828/1 and NE/P006779/1. A.A.S., J.R.K., and N.B. were supported by the Joint UK Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101). A.A.S. and J.R.K. were additionally supported by the EU Seventh Framework Programme SPECS (Seasonal-to-decadal climate Prediction for the improvement of European Climate Services) project

Possible impacts of a future grand solar minimum on climate: Stratospheric and global circulation changes.

This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Wiley via http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022022A future decline in solar activity would not offset projected global warmingA future decline in solar activity could have larger regional effects in winterTop-down mechanism contributes to Northern Hemisphere regional response.LJG and ACM were supported by the National Centre for Atmospheric Science's Climate Directorate. ACM also acknowledges support from the ERC ACCI project no. 267760 and an AXA Postdoctoral Fellowship. SI and AAS were supported by the Joint DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101). LJG and JAA were supported by a grant from the National Environmental Research Council

Measuring global trends in the status of biodiversity: red list indices for birds.

The rapid destruction of the planet's biodiversity has prompted the nations of the world to set a target of achieving a significant reduction in the rate of loss of biodiversity by 2010. However, we do not yet have an adequate way of monitoring progress towards achieving this target. Here we present a method for producing indices based on the IUCN Red List to chart the overall threat status (projected relative extinction risk) of all the world's bird species from 1988 to 2004. Red List Indices (RLIs) are based on the number of species in each Red List category, and on the number changing categories between assessments as a result of genuine improvement or deterioration in status. The RLI for all bird species shows that their overall threat status has continued to deteriorate since 1988. Disaggregated indices show that deteriorations have occurred worldwide and in all major ecosystems, but with particularly steep declines in the indices for Indo-Malayan birds (driven by intensifying deforestation of the Sundaic lowlands) and for albatrosses and petrels (driven by incidental mortality in commercial longline fisheries). RLIs complement indicators based on species population trends and habitat extent for quantifying global trends in the status of biodiversity. Their main weaknesses are that the resolution of status changes is fairly coarse and that delays may occur before some status changes are detected. Their greatest strength is that they are based on information from nearly all species in a taxonomic group worldwide, rather than a potentially biased subset. At present, suitable data are only available for birds, but indices for other taxonomic groups are in development, as is a sampled index based on a stratified sample from all major taxonomic groups

Ghosts of Yellowstone: Multi-Decadal Histories of Wildlife Populations Captured by Bones on a Modern Landscape

Natural accumulations of skeletal material (death assemblages) have the potential to provide historical data on species diversity and population structure for regions lacking decades of wildlife monitoring, thereby contributing valuable baseline data for conservation and management strategies. Previous studies of the ecological and temporal resolutions of death assemblages from terrestrial large-mammal communities, however, have largely focused on broad patterns of community composition in tropical settings. Here, I expand the environmental sampling of large-mammal death assemblages into a temperate biome and explore more demanding assessments of ecological fidelity by testing their capacity to record past population fluctuations of individual species in the well-studied ungulate community of Yellowstone National Park (Yellowstone). Despite dramatic ecological changes following the 1988 wildfires and 1995 wolf re-introduction, the Yellowstone death assemblage is highly faithful to the living community in species richness and community structure. These results agree with studies of tropical death assemblages and establish the broad capability of vertebrate remains to provide high-quality ecological data from disparate ecosystems and biomes. Importantly, the Yellowstone death assemblage also correctly identifies species that changed significantly in abundance over the last 20 to ∼80 years and the directions of those shifts (including local invasions and extinctions). The relative frequency of fresh versus weathered bones for individual species is also consistent with documented trends in living population sizes. Radiocarbon dating verifies the historical source of bones from Equus caballus (horse): a functionally extinct species. Bone surveys are a broadly valuable tool for obtaining population trends and baseline shifts over decadal-to-centennial timescales

Translocation of Threatened New Zealand Falcons to Vineyards Increases Nest Attendance, Brooding and Feeding Rates

Anthropogenic landscapes can be rich in resources, and may in some cases provide potential habitat for species whose natural habitat has declined. We used remote videography to assess whether reintroducing individuals of the threatened New Zealand falcon Falco novaeseelandiae into a highly modified agricultural habitat affected the feeding rates of breeding falcons or related breeding behavior such as nest attendance and brooding rates. Over 2,800 recording hours of footage were used to compare the behavior of falcons living in six natural nests (in unmanaged, hilly terrain between 4 km and 20 km from the nearest vineyard), with that of four breeding falcon pairs that had been transported into vineyards and nested within 500 m of the nearest vineyard. Falcons in vineyard nests had higher feeding rates, higher nest attendance, and higher brooding rates. As chick age increased, parents in vineyard nests fed chicks a greater amount of total prey and larger prey items on average than did parents in hill nests. Parents with larger broods brought in larger prey items and a greater total sum of prey biomass. Nevertheless, chicks in nests containing siblings received less daily biomass per individual than single chicks. Some of these results can be attributed to the supplementary feeding of falcons in vineyards. However, even after removing supplementary food from our analysis, falcons in vineyards still fed larger prey items to chicks than did parents in hill nests, suggesting that the anthropogenic habitat may be a viable source of quality food. Although agricultural regions globally are rarely associated with raptor conservation, these results suggest that translocating New Zealand falcons into vineyards has potential for the conservation of this species

Disentangling the Relative Importance of Changes in Climate and Land-Use Intensity in Driving Recent Bird Population Trends

Threats to biodiversity resulting from habitat destruction and deterioration have been documented for many species, whilst climate change is regarded as increasingly impacting upon species' distribution and abundance. However, few studies have disentangled the relative importance of these two drivers in causing recent population declines. We quantify the relative importance of both processes by modelling annual variation in population growth of 18 farmland bird species in the UK as a function of measures of land-use intensity and weather. Modelled together, both had similar explanatory power in accounting for annual fluctuations in population growth. When these models were used to retrodict population trends for each species as a function of annual variation in land-use intensity and weather combined, and separately, retrodictions incorporating land-use intensity were more closely linked to observed population trends than retrodictions based only on weather, and closely matched the UK farmland bird index from 1970 onwards. Despite more stable land-use intensity in recent years, climate change (inferred from weather trends) has not overtaken land-use intensity as the dominant driver of bird populations

Identification and management of chronic pain in primary care:a review

Chronic pain is a common, complex, and challenging condition, where understanding the biological, social, physical and psychological contexts is vital to successful outcomes in primary care. In managing chronic pain the focus is often on promoting rehabilitation and maximizing quality of life rather than achieving cure. Recent screening tools and brief intervention techniques can be effective in helping clinicians identify, stratify and manage both patients already living with chronic pain and those who are at risk of developing chronic pain from acute pain. Frequent assessment and reassessment are key to ensuring treatment is appropriate and safe, as well as minimizing and addressing side effects. Primary care management should be holistic and evidence-based (where possible) and incorporates both pharmacological and non-pharmacological approaches, including psychology, self-management, physiotherapy, peripheral nervous system stimulation, complementary therapies and comprehensive pain-management programmes. These may either be based wholly in primary care or supported by appropriate specialist referral

Plant Identity Influences Decomposition through More Than One Mechanism

Plant litter decomposition is a critical ecosystem process representing a major pathway for carbon flux, but little is known about how it is affected by changes in plant composition and diversity. Single plant functional groups (graminoids, legumes, non-leguminous forbs) were removed from a grassland in northern Canada to examine the impacts of functional group identity on decomposition. Removals were conducted within two different environmental contexts (fertilization and fungicide application) to examine the context-dependency of these identity effects. We examined two different mechanisms by which the loss of plant functional groups may impact decomposition: effects of the living plant community on the decomposition microenvironment, and changes in the species composition of the decomposing litter, as well as the interaction between these mechanisms. We show that the identity of the plant functional group removed affects decomposition through both mechanisms. Removal of both graminoids and forbs slowed decomposition through changes in the decomposition microenvironment. We found non-additive effects of litter mixing, with both the direction and identity of the functional group responsible depending on year; in 2004 graminoids positively influenced decomposition whereas in 2006 forbs negatively influenced decomposition rate. Although these two mechanisms act independently, their effects may be additive if both mechanisms are considered simultaneously. It is essential to understand the variety of mechanisms through which even a single ecosystem property is affected if we are to predict the future consequences of biodiversity loss

Meeting the Aichi targets: Pushing for zero extinction conservation

Effective protection of the ~19,000 IUCN-listed threatened species has never been more pressing. Ensuring the survival of the most vulnerable and irreplaceable taxa and places, such as those identified by the Alliance for Zero Extinction (AZE) species and their associated sites (AZEs&s), is an excellent opportunity to achieve the Aichi 2020 Targets T11 (protected areas) and T12 (preventing species extinctions). AZE taxa have small, single-site populations that are especially vulnerable to human-induced extinctions, particularly for the many amphibians. We show that AZEs&s can be protected feasibly and cost-effectively, but action is urgent. We argue that the Alliance, whose initial main aim was to identify AZEs&s, must be followed up by a second-generation initiative that directs and co-ordinates AZE conservation activities on the ground. The prominent role of zoos, conservation NGOs and governmental institutions provides a combination of all-encompassing knowhow that can, if properly steered, maximize the long-term survival of AZEs&s

The genetic mating system of a sea spider with male-biased sexual size dimorphism: evidence for paternity skew despite random mating success

Male-biased size dimorphism is usually expected to evolve in taxa with intense male–male competition for mates, and it is hence associated with high variances in male mating success. Most species of pycnogonid sea spiders exhibit female-biased size dimorphism, and are notable among arthropods for having exclusive male parental care of embryos. Relatively little, however, is known about their natural history, breeding ecology, and mating systems. Here we first show that Ammothella biunguiculata, a small intertidal sea spider, exhibits male-biased size dimorphism. Moreover, we combine genetic parentage analysis with quantitative measures of sexual selection to show that male body size does not appear to be under directional selection. Simulations of random mating revealed that mate acquisition in this species is largely driven by chance factors, although actual paternity success is likely non-randomly distributed. Finally, the opportunity for sexual selection (Is), an indirect metric for the potential strength of sexual selection, in A. biunguiculata males was less than half of that estimated in a sea spider with female-biased size dimorphism, suggesting the direction of size dimorphism may not be a reliable predictor of the intensity of sexual selection in this group. We highlight the suitability of pycnogonids as model systems for addressing questions relating parental investment and sexual selection, as well as the current lack of basic information on their natural history and breeding ecology