Alternative pathways to a sustainable future lead to contrasting biodiversity responses

Land-use change is currently the main driver of biodiversity loss. Projections of land-use change are often used to estimate potential impacts on biodiversity of future pathways of human development. However, such analyses frequently neglect that species can persist in human-modified habitats. Our aim was to estimate changes in biodiversity, considering affinities for multiple habitats, for three different land-use scenarios. Two scenarios focused on more sustainable trajectories of land-use change, based on either technological improvements (Pathway A) or societal changes (Pathway B), and the third reflected the historical or business-as-usual trends (Pathway 0). Using Portugal as a case study, we produced spatially-explicit projections of land-use change based on these pathways, and then we assessed the resulting changes in bird species richness and composition projected to occur by 2050 in each of the scenarios. By 2050, alpha and gamma diversity were projected to decrease, relative to 2010, in Pathway 0 and increase in Pathways A and B. However, different pathways favored different species groups, and presented strong regional differences. In the technological improvement pathway, loss of extensive agricultural areas led to an increase in both natural and extensive forest areas. In this pathway, forest species increase at the expense of farmland species, while in the societal change pathway the reverse occurs, as extensive agricultural areas were projected to increase. We show that while multiple positive pathways (A and B) for biodiversity can be envisioned, they will lead to differential impacts on biodiversity depending on the transformational changes in place and the regional socio-economic context. Our results suggest that considering compositional aspects of biodiversity can be critical in choosing the appropriate regional land-use policies

Challenges in producing policy-relevant global scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services

Scenario-based modelling is a powerful tool to describe relationships between plausible trajectories of drivers, possible policy interventions, and impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Model inter-comparisons are key in quantifying uncertainties and identifying avenues for model improvement but have been missing among the global biodiversity and ecosystem services modelling communities. The biodiversity and ecosystem services scenario-based inter-model comparison (BES-SIM) aims to fill this gap. We used global land-use and climate projections to simulate possible future impacts on terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services using a variety of models and a range of harmonized metrics. The goal of this paper is to reflect on the steps taken in BES-SIM, identify remaining methodological challenges, and suggest pathways for improvement. We identified five major groups of challenges; the need to: 1) better account for the role of nature in future human development storylines; 2) improve the representation of drivers in the scenarios by increasing the resolution (temporal, spatial and thematic) of land-use as key driver of biodiversity change and including additional relevant drivers; 3) explicitly integrate species- and trait-level biodiversity in ecosystem services models; 4) expand the coverage of the multiple dimensions of biodiversity and ecosystem services; and finally, 5) incorporate time-series or one-off historical data in the calibration and validation of biodiversity and ecosystem services models. Addressing these challenges would allow the development of more integrated global projections of biodiversity and ecosystem services, thereby improving their policy relevance in supporting the interlinked international conservation and sustainable development agendas

Deforestation projections imply range-wide population decline for critically endangered Bornean orangutan

Assessing where wildlife populations are at risk from future habitat loss is particularly important for land-use planning and avoiding biodiversity declines. Combining projections of future deforestation with species density information provides an improved way to anticipate such declines. Using the critically endangered Bornean orangutan (Pongo pygmaeus) as a case study we applied a spatio-temporally explicit deforestation model to forest loss data from 2001-2017 and projected future impacts on orangutans to the 2030s. Our projections point to continued deforestation across the island, amounting to a potential loss of forest habitat for 26,200 orangutans. Populations currently persisting in forests gazetted for industrial timber and oil palm concessions, or unprotected forests outside of concessions, were projected to experience the worst losses within the next 15 years, amounting to 15,400 individuals. Our analysis indicates the importance of protecting orangutan habitat in plantation landscapes, maintaining protected areas and efforts to prevent the conversion of logged forests for the survival of highly vulnerable wildlife. The modeling framework could be expanded to other species with available density or occurrence data. Our findings highlight that species conservation should not only act on the current information, but also anticipate future changes to be effective

Usual dietary intake, nutritional adequacy and food sources of calcium, phosphorus, magnesium and vitamin D of spanish children aged one to dagger

Bone problems in the population begin to be establish in childhood. The present study aims to assess the usual calcium, phosphorus, magnesium, and vitamin D intakes, along with the food sources of these nutrients, in Spanish children participating in the EsNuPI (Estudio Nutricional en Población Infantil Española) study. Two 24 h dietary recalls were applied to 1448 children (1 to <10 years) divided into two sub-samples: one reference sample (RS) of the general population [n = 707] and another sample which exclusively included children consuming enriched or fortified milks, here called “adapted milks” (AMS) [n = 741]. Estimation of the usual intake shows that nutrient intake increased with age for all nutrients except vitamin D. Using as reference the Dietary Reference Values from the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), calcium and magnesium intakes were found to be below the average requirement (AR) and adequate intake (AI), respectively, in a considerable percentage of children. Furthermore, phosphorus exceeded the AI in 100% of individuals and vitamin D was lower than the AI in almost all children studied. The results were very similar when considering only plausible reporters. When analyzing the food sources of the nutrients studied, milk and dairy products contributed the most to calcium, phosphorus, magnesium, and vitamin D. Other sources of calcium were cereals and vegetables; for phosphorus: meat, meat products, and cereals; for magnesium: cereals and fruits; and, for vitamin D: fish and eggs. These results highlight the desirability of improving the intake concerning these nutrients, which are involved in bone and metabolic health in children. The AMS group appeared to contribute better to the adequacy of those nutrients than the RS group, but both still need further improvement. Of special interest are the results of vitamin D intakes, which were significantly higher in the AMS group (although still below the AI), independent of age

Challenges in producing policy-relevant global scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services

Scenario-based modelling is a powerful tool to describe relationships between plausible trajectories of drivers, possible policy interventions, and impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Model inter-comparisons are key in quantifying uncertainties and identifying avenues for model improvement but have been missing among the global biodiversity and ecosystem services modelling communities. The biodiversity and ecosystem services scenario-based inter-model comparison (BES-SIM) aims to fill this gap. We used global land-use and climate projections to simulate possible future impacts on terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services using a variety of models and a range of harmonized metrics. The goal of this paper is to reflect on the steps taken in BES-SIM, identify remaining methodological challenges, and suggest pathways for improvement. We identified five major groups of challenges; the need to: 1) better account for the role of nature in future human development storylines; 2) improve the representation of drivers in the scenarios by increasing the resolution (temporal, spatial and thematic) of land-use as key driver of biodiversity change and including additional relevant drivers; 3) explicitly integrate species- and trait-level biodiversity in ecosystem services models; 4) expand the coverage of the multiple dimensions of biodiversity and ecosystem services; and finally, 5) incorporate time-series or one-off historical data in the calibration and validation of biodiversity and ecosystem services models. Addressing these challenges would allow the development of more integrated global projections of biodiversity and ecosystem services, thereby improving their policy relevance in supporting the interlinked international conservation and sustainable development agendas

Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales

Effect of a mediterranean diet intervention on dietary glycemic load and dietary glycemic index: the predimed study

Objective. To compare the one year effect of two dietary interventions with MeDiet on GL and GI in the PREDIMED trial. Methods. Participants were older subjects at high risk for cardiovascular disease. This analysis included 2866 nondiabetic subjects. Diet was assessed with a validated 137-item food frequency questionnaire (FFQ). The GI of each FFQ item was assigned by a 5-step methodology using the International Tables of GI and GL Values. Generalized linear models were fitted to assess the relationship between the intervention group and dietary GL and GI at one year of follow-up, using control group as reference. Results. Multivariate-adjusted models showed an inverse association between GL and MeDiet + extra virgin olive oil (EVOO) group: β = -8.52 (95% CI: -10.83 to -6.20) and MeDiet + Nuts group: β = -10.34 (95% CI: -12.69 to -8.00), when comparing with control group. Regarding GI, β = -0.93 (95% CI: -1.38 to -0.49) for MeDiet + EVOO, β = -1.06 (95% CI: -1.51 to -0.62) for MeDiet + Nuts when comparing with control group. Conclusion. Dietary intervention with MeDiet supplemented with EVOO or nuts lowers dietary GL and GI

Relationship between olive oil consumption and ankle-brachial pressure index in a population at high cardiovascular risk

The aim of this study was to ascertain the association between the consumption of different categories of edible olive oils (virgin olive oils and olive oil) and olive pomace oil and ankle-brachial pressure index (ABI) in participants in the PREDIMED-Plus study, a trial of lifestyle modification for weight and cardiovascular event reduction in individuals with overweight/obesity harboring the metabolic syndrome. Methods: We performed a cross-sectional analysis of the PREDIMED-Plus trial. Consumption of any category of olive oil and olive pomace oil was assessed through a validated food-frequency questionnaire. Multivariable linear regression models were fitted to assess associations between olive oil consumption and ABI. Additionally, ABI ≤1 was considered as the outcome in logistic models with different categories of olive oil and olive pomace oil as exposure. Results: Among 4330 participants, the highest quintile of total olive oil consumption (sum of all categories of olive oil and olive pomace oil) was associated with higher mean values of ABI (beta coefficient: 0.014, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.002, 0.027) (p for trend = 0.010). Logistic models comparing the consumption of different categories of olive oils, olive pomace oil and ABI ≤1 values revealed an inverse association between virgin olive oils consumption and the likelihood of a low ABI (odds ratio [OR] 0.73, 95% CI [0.56, 0.97]), while consumption of olive pomace oil was positively associated with a low ABI (OR 1.22 95% CI [1.00, 1.48]). Conclusions: In a Mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk, total olive oil consumption was associated with a higher mean ABI. These results suggest that olive oil consumption may be beneficial for peripheral artery disease prevention, but longitudinal studies are needed

Simulating land use changes, sediment yields, and pesticide use in the Upper Paraguay River Basin: Implications for conservation of the Pantanal wetland

As a consequence of accelerated and excessive use of pesticides in tropical regions, wilderness areas are under threat; this includes the Pantanal wetlands in the Upper Paraguay River Basin (UPRB). Using a Land Cover Land Use Change (LCLUC) modelling approach, we estimated the expected pesticide load in the Pantanal and the surrounding highlands region for 2050 under three potential scenarios: i) business as usual (BAU), ii) acceleration of anthropogenic changes (ACC), and iii) use of buffer zones around protected areas (BPA). The quantity of pesticides used in the UPRB is predicted to vary depending on the scenario, from an overall increase by as much as 7.4% in the UPRB in the BAU scenario (increasing by 38.5% in the floodplain and 6.6% in the highlands), to an increase of 11.2% in the UPRB (over current use) under the AAC scenario (increasing by 53.8% in the floodplain and 7.5% in the highlands). Much higher usage of pesticides is predicted in sub-basins with greater agricultural areas within major hydrographic basins. Changing the current trajectory of land management in the UPRB is a complex challenge. It will require a substantial shift from current practices, and will involve the implementation of a number of strategies, ranging from the development of new technologies to achieve changes in land use policies, to increasing dialogue between farmers, ranchers, the scientific community, and local or traditional communities through participatory learning processes and outreach